Convective/Thunderstorm Discussion : Summer/Autumn 2021

Fairly active day , further south then I thought and not much in the NE after this mornings storms went through.

Ended up with 14.2mm here, heard a couple of rumbles in the early afternoon, some very big showers including hail, very localized, drove through some steamy roads after heavy showers and bone dry a bit further down the road. Some nice bright spells especially in the afternoon, breezy on the coast, got up to 17.3C.

A vigorous area of Lp passing well off the S coasts today into tonight looks like producing a fair bit of instability giving the possibility of thunderstorms over the sea with maybe a few coming close to the coast, might make for a good photographic opportunity later in the day / early Fri morning if there are enough breaks in the cloud cover. Some heavy bursts of rain along Southern coasts . Yellow warning in place.

Status Yellow - Rain warning for Cork, Waterford, Wexford

• Met Éireann Weather Warning
• Heavy or thundery showery rain expected with the risk of spot flooding.
• Valid: 15:00 Thursday 29/07/2021 to 05:00 Friday 30/07/2021
• Issued: 10:41 Thursday 29/07/2021

A bit of interest tomorrow evening for the chance of some thunderstorms ( elevated I think ) in the SW. Looks like very little surface CAPE it would seem , most of the instability coming form mid level high theta E layer aided by topographical lift , convergence ,frontal forcing and some decent Deep Layer Shear. Looks a bit marginal but could produce some localized heavy thundery bursts.

Not much activity , some showing up overnight / early morning but not sure if some of these sferics are false returns ?

In fact turned out a much better day then expected here in Kerry, sunny and felt quite pleasant, cloud building throughout the day but more so inland, this evening could see shafts of precipitation from Altocumulus, most not reaching the ground, a few drops around 21.00.

Today could have some storms also, big Congestus brewing on Kerry / Limerick border with good sunshine, drove through a heavy shower short time ago.

Might get some thunderstorms moving into Atlantic coastal counties overnight especially in the West and possibly moving across Connacht from the advancing fronts making forcing possible with some high LLS and DLS and lift from high terrain helping convection overnight.

Thunderstorms look set to build widely from late morning/ early afternoon. Temperatures should get up to the high teens generally with a fairly high Dp generally of 15C to 16C. High Theta E and CAPE getting into the 400 -600 J/Kg range and higher in pockets perhaps. Good levels of LLS and DLS with decent lapse rates, variable winds giving convergence and divergence. Upper trough has the look of being negatively tilted during peak diurnal heating Some very heavy rain in places no doubt giving the threat of local flooding. Thinking it could be an active day lightning wise and could see funnels and the odd one maybe making it to the ground perhaps, plenty of Vorticity in the atmosphere.

Off the West coast I expect.

Animation didnt work but can see big convection building off Mayo / Galway