Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

10000maniacs · 17-06-2021 10:12pm

Poots resigning is a shocker. But the party was too split over the ambush and dispatch of Foster.

Headshot · 17-06-2021 10:54pm

Foster must be sitting in an arm chair overlooking a fire place with a wine in hand and nice smirk on her face

What goes around comes around

FrancieBrady · 17-06-2021 11:21pm

Headshot wrote: »

Foster must be sitting in an arm chair overlooking a fire place with a wine in hand and nice smirk on her face

What goes around comes around

Foster is as responsible as Poots for this mess.

Headshot · 17-06-2021 11:22pm

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Foster is as responsible as Poots for this mess.

I'm referring to the back stabbing they did on Foster and particularly Poots who barely talked to her after he put the knife in

Mr.Nice Guy · 17-06-2021 11:37pm

Belfast News Editor's Ben Lowry had a bit of a meltdown on The View. Saying SF had used blackmail and held Stormont to ransom. Had to be pointed out to him by host Mark Carruthers that the deal for an Irish language act had already been agreed, and there wouldn't have been an issue if it had been implemented as promised.

I wonder whether the same things will be said of the DUP if they threaten to collapse Stormont in order to scrap the Brexit prootocol, as has been suggested by some in the party. I somehow doubt it.

FrancieBrady · 17-06-2021 11:46pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Belfast News Editor's Ben Lowry had a bit of a meltdown on The View. Saying SF had used blackmail and held Stormont to ransom. Had to be pointed out to him by host Mark Carruthers that the deal for an Irish language act had already been agreed, and there wouldn't have been an issue if it had been implemented as promised.

I wonder whether the same things will be said of the DUP if they threaten to collapse Stormont in order to scrap the Brexit prootocol, as has been suggested by some in the party. I somehow doubt it.

Lowry like the DUP has been found out. Belligerent Unionists all.

weemcd · 18-06-2021 9:43am

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Belfast News Editor's Ben Lowry had a bit of a meltdown on The View. Saying SF had used blackmail and held Stormont to ransom. Had to be pointed out to him by host Mark Carruthers that the deal for an Irish language act had already been agreed, and there wouldn't have been an issue if it had been implemented as promised.

I wonder whether the same things will be said of the DUP if they threaten to collapse Stormont in order to scrap the Brexit prootocol, as has been suggested by some in the party. I somehow doubt it.

Lowry always gets himself worked up to the point you think he's gonna burst into tears. No sooner was he on camera that he started pinning the blame for an entirely Unionist fall out on Sinn Fein. It's quite incredible he's ever interviewed. Hysterical.

Mr.Nice Guy · 18-06-2021 1:38pm

https://twitter.com/denisstaunton/status/1405851605354831872

Hope this is the case. Hard to have trust in their commitments based on experience.

pixelburp · 18-06-2021 1:45pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

https://twitter.com/denisstaunton/status/1405851605354831872

Hope this is the case. Hard to have trust in their commitments based on experience.

They did it with the abortion and same sex legislation already, right? While the Executive was dead. I'd well believe they would; the Tories can't be seen to openly undermine and berate a "partner" but this is the next best thing. While potentially, subtly, pushing the province a little further away

Mr.Nice Guy · 18-06-2021 7:05pm

The DUP's friends reckon they should pull down Stormont. Considering the party are currently fuming over Westminster taking matters into their own hands, not sure a strategy of letting Westminster take matters into their own hands for the forseeable future is the best idea...

https://twitter.com/rodneyedwards/status/1405925778639015941

Also love the fact that it's the Irish government that are at fault for problems, and not the Tories or DUP who suppsedly held all the cards the last 5 odd years.

Capt'n Midnight · 18-06-2021 7:48pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

The DUP's friends reckon they should pull down Stormont. Considering the party are currently fuming over Westminster taking matters into their own hands, not sure a strategy of letting Westminster take matters into their own hands for the forseeable future is the best idea...

The DUP know all about holding grudges so it's not like they have any excuse.

They backstabbed a Tory PM so they'd be thrown under the first Big Red Bus

What if Scotland gain independence during Direct Rule ?

What if there's civil disorder and a border poll looks like it could be won ?

Mr.Nice Guy · 20-06-2021 7:13pm

Interesting article from BBC NI's Economics and Business Editor, John Campbell, about how all-island trade is rising since Brexit:

for the whole January to April period NI exports to Ireland were up by 60% to more than €1bn (£859m).

The figures from Ireland's Central Statistics Office (CSO) also showed the value of Irish exports to NI increasing.

In January to April they were up 40% to €977m (£841m).

Since the NI Protocol began operating in January, it has become more difficult for businesses in either part of Ireland to import goods from Great Britain.

Northern Ireland has remained in the EU's single market for goods, which means that products arriving from Great Britain are subject to new checks and controls.

Goods arriving from Great Britain into the Republic of Ireland face similar processes.

However, goods trade across the Irish border remains as it was before Brexit, with no new checks and controls.

That may have prompted some businesses to source more products on the island of Ireland rather than from GB.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-57484741

Brexit continues to be a spectacular own goal for the DUP. The blame for the change in circumstances rests with those that supported it and dismissed warnings against it.

Sam Russell · 20-06-2021 8:05pm

I'm not sure about those figures.

For example, a VW Golf purchased in NI in Dec 2020 would be purchased from GB. The same transaction in Jan 2021, assuming that VW observe the rules, would be purchased from VW Ireland and shipped from Germany to Rosslare and onto Belfast thus avoiding the 10% tariff because of rules of origin as insufficien UK content.

How much of the above transactions are included in the figures? Anyone have any information on this.

View · 20-06-2021 11:02pm

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Interesting article from BBC NI's Economics and Business Editor, John Campbell, about how all-island trade is rising since Brexit:

Brexit continues to be a spectacular own goal for the DUP. The blame for the change in circumstances rests with those that supported it and dismissed warnings against it.

The figures are distorted. It almost certainly isn’t a case that exports from NI to Ireland are booming but rather that exports from GB to Ireland are just being re-routed and sent via Belfast over the border to avoid customs at Dublin.

In other words, our open border is - surprise, surprise - merely facilitating smuggling into the EU. And, no there’s no point in anyone pretending to be upset by this as it was entirely predictable based on past experience and we knew it was going to happen.

Capt'n Midnight · 21-06-2021 12:12am

View wrote: »

The figures are distorted. It almost certainly isn’t a case that exports from NI to Ireland are booming but rather that exports from GB to Ireland are just being re-routed and sent via Belfast over the border to avoid customs at Dublin.

In other words, our open border is - surprise, surprise - merely facilitating smuggling into the EU. And, no there’s no point in anyone pretending to be upset by this as it was entirely predictable based on past experience and we knew it was going to happen.

Doesn't that mean the exporters have to pay HM Customs and Excise the tariffs etc as well as following all the currently existing regs and phytosanctions to get products into NI in the first place ?

View · 21-06-2021 1:13am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Doesn't that mean the exporters have to pay HM Customs and Excise the tariffs etc as well as following all the currently existing regs and phytosanctions to get products into NI in the first place ?

In theory yes. In practice absolutely not.

The checks at Belfast port are no more being enforced by the U.K. government than they are at the ports for the Killimer-Tarbert car ferry by our own government.

There is currently absolutely nothing in Belfast port - in practice - stopping someone driving a truckload of that lovely hormone filled Australian beef from GB into Ireland/the EU, via NI (once Johnson gives that Australian beef the final go-ahead).

Seth Brundle · 21-06-2021 9:55pm

Poots & the DUP showing how they care about the views of the people of NI only when it suits them. They have no difficulty ignoring what the people of NI said in the Brexit referendum. Similarly, the people chose peace through the GFA which was actively opposed by the DUP.

Poots suggests NI protocol should be put to a referendum
UK-EU agreement changes Northern Ireland’s constitutional status, outgoing DUP leader says

Outgoing Democratic Unionist Party leader Edwin Poots has suggested the controversial Northern Ireland Protocol be put to a referendum.
The post-Brexit arrangements are undemocratic and change the constitutional position of the North, and if they can’t be scrapped then a vote is needed on the change, he said.

Capt'n Midnight · 22-06-2021 8:23am

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Poots suggests NI protocol should be put to a referendum

Insane.

Such a referendum wouldn't get rid of the Protocol and would only fuel demand for a border poll.

ancapailldorcha · 22-06-2021 8:40am

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

Insane.

Such a referendum wouldn't get rid of the Protocol and would only fuel demand for a border poll.

It's desperate flailing. The DUP have spectacularly taken one of the best hands a minor party has ever had in Anglo-Irish history and played it in the worst possible manner. The worst thing is, they don't seem to have done so with any sort of tangible objective in mind.

The absolute last word they need to be using now is "referendum". They need to stop drawing attention to themselves as anyone in Britain to the left of the Tory party sees them as repugnant while anyone Tory and right of that mark sees them at best as pawns whose utility is spent.

pixelburp · 22-06-2021 8:45am

I can't see the lyrics changing that much either if _Donaldson_ is the man to take over; with the vote split between 2 hardline options at that acrimonious leadership contest, I'm not sure how "the other guy" is going to usher in a change of rhetoric.

"Never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake" has never rung truer for moderate Unionism; the UUP and Alliance must be planning ahead to scoop up the disenfranchised voters that are surely looking at this flailing, regressive unit of malcontents and saying "nope!". Dunno if I've missed any NI focused polls but you'd want to think the DUP are suffering in that respect, at least?

ancapailldorcha · 22-06-2021 8:48am

pixelburp wrote: »

I can't see the lyrics changing that much either if _Donaldson_ is the man to take over; with the vote split between 2 hardline options at that acrimonious leadership contest, I'm not sure how "the other guy" is going to usher in a change of rhetoric.

"Never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake" has never rung truer for moderate Unionism; the UUP and Alliance must be planning ahead to scoop up the disenfranchised voters that are surely looking at this flailing, regressive unit of malcontents and saying "nope!". Dunno if I've missed any NI focused polls but you'd want to think the DUP are suffering in that respect, at least?

I think the DUP have coasted for a long time on the sole virtue of not being Sinn Féin and having objected to the 1998 Belfast Agreement so therefore, any true Unionist should vote for them.

Brexit has shown this to be bunk though this was obvious in any case. FPTP probably negates the possibility of NI's 18 MP's in the House of Commons changing too much but hopefully moderates can make gains in the Assembly.

weemcd · 22-06-2021 9:39am

pixelburp wrote: »

I can't see the lyrics changing that much either if _Donaldson_ is the man to take over; with the vote split between 2 hardline options at that acrimonious leadership contest, I'm not sure how "the other guy" is going to usher in a change of rhetoric.

"Never interrupt your enemy when they're making a mistake" has never rung truer for moderate Unionism; the UUP and Alliance must be planning ahead to scoop up the disenfranchised voters that are surely looking at this flailing, regressive unit of malcontents and saying "nope!". Dunno if I've missed any NI focused polls but you'd want to think the DUP are suffering in that respect, at least?

I don't have any to hand but lucid talk and the Belfast Telegraph among others have DUP taking a hit at the point of the next election. I think that's inevitable, the question is how big is the hit and where would those votes go? My guess would be split a few ways between UUP/Alliance and TUV with Alliance and UUP each receiving a small boost.

Mr.Nice Guy · 22-06-2021 7:53pm

Frost said today that the protocol can only work "if there is general consent and it is accepted as legitimate by everybody in Northern Ireland." Almost nothing meets that criteria! Brexit certainly didn't.

Worrying comments from Poots today:

https://twitter.com/BBCJayneMcC/status/1407237092036468736

There was a theory floating about a few months ago that the British government would use unrest by loyalists over the 12th July as a pretext for making changes. Really hope that's not the agenda. Frost met with the LCC in May. What was discussed then I wonder...

Leroy42 · 22-06-2021 10:45pm

I just love the fact both Frost and Johnson are out lamenting the NIP and nobody ever seems to ask how they ever signed such a rubbish agreement?

Surely Johnson should be resigning over such a monumental mistake.

Is it up there, in terms of misreading of a situation, with Chamberlains peace in our time?

ancapailldorcha · 22-06-2021 11:05pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

I just love the fact both Frost and Johnson are out lamenting the NIP and nobody ever seems to ask how they ever signed such a rubbish agreement?

Surely Johnson should be resigning over such a monumental mistake.

Is it up there, in terms of misreading of a situation, with Chamberlains peace in our time?

Ah now, at least Neville Chamberlain had honourable intentions. I've heard his "Peace for our time" speech and he's clearly relieved that, to the best of his knowledge at the time, he's managed to prevent another atrocious war in Europe at the last possible moment.

Frost and Johnson signed an agreement with the intention of ditching it the second it became inconvenient. That moment has arrived so what they're doing is entirely par for the course.

pixelburp · 23-06-2021 8:26am

I'd be a smidge worried about what July 12 might bring, or indeed whatever it was Poots was promised - but it's also worth remembering who the promise was coming from. I doubt there has been a British government this outwardly untrustworthy and whose reputation is this sullied, in modern memory. To be blunt, it's entirely possible Poots was promised any old shíte to get the meeting finished and his band of eternal malcontents off Whitehall's back for now. I'd be of the firm belief that whatever's going on in the backrooms, it'll involve the easiest way to throw NI under the bus - without making it LOOK like Johnson & co. are throwing NI under the bus. They need to be seen to be defending the honour of the UK, but I daresay Scotland is larger in the radar right now than their constantly acrimonious, sick sibling.

Leroy42 · 23-06-2021 8:44am

I totally believe Poots was promised that things would be sorted. I also believe he was not given any specifics or details of the effects of these changes.

I also believe that Johnson is a liar and will say whatever needs to be said, but with enough vagueness and open to interpretation that nothing he says can be relied upon.

The problem for the UK is exactly the same problem they were faced with 5 years ago. Despite all the talk of easy solutions, just telling the EU whats what, technical solutions and so, in reality Johnson faces exactly the same problem that TM did.

He can either protect the union, at the cost of any continued trade deal with the EU, or they can accept that NI, in particular, means that despite wishing to cut all ties with EU it is not practical.

Johnson still has yet to propose an answer to this conundrum. It was said ad nasuem that No deal was better than a bad deal. Well according to Johnson and Frost this is a terrible deal so Johnson faces making a decision he has resolutely refused to take in the past.

Is there any reason to believe that Johnson is now willing to go for No Deal?

DUP are acting very odd here. They proport to believe in the Union, and that Union vests power in Westminster through the PM. That PM made a decision to accept the NIP and the deal was used as a basis for the GE in which Johnson secured a massive majority, which duly voted for the deal.

DUP are effectively looking to override the democratic will of the people of the Union, whilst at the same time ignoring the majority of the people in their own country.

Peregrinus · 23-06-2021 8:59am

It is too late to go for no deal. There is a deal. The UK has committed to it, and is bound by it. Walking away now does not result in no deal; it results in a violated deal, with all the attendant grief.

Tl;dr: it's like the difference between (a) not accepting the bank's mortgage offer and (b) accepting the offer, drawing down the loan and then deciding not to repay. Option (b) has consequences that wouldn't have arisen if you had taken option (a).

The promise to Poots can be delivered — if it is to be delivered at all — in one of two ways. UK actually commits to operating the NIP, including the bits of it which provide a mechanism for adjusting its operation, uses these mechanisms to agree adjustments, and then hails those adjustments as "very significant changes". Or, UK negotiates a new treaty with EU amending the WA so as to make "very significant changes" to the NIP.

I mention the second option because it's legally, theoretically, possible. Realistically, it's not possible. For this to happen EU would have to trust UK, and UK would have to offer changes to the WA which the EU would find attractive. But UK has been unstinting in its efforts to make sure the EU will not trust it, and nothing in its attitude suggests that any changes to WA that it might suggest would be designed to appeal to the EU. So this is not going to happen.

So it's back to the UK getting agreement from the EU to changes in the practical operation of the NIP, and then hailing these as "very significant". Not even Edwin Poots is stupid enough not to understand that that is what he has been "promised".

Sam Russell · 21-07-2021 8:45am

As we enter the silly season and the marching season marches on, Frost and Johnson make loud noises about the NI Protocol. Is this just a diversion to the increasing disaster that is the Covid rising problems, the loss of the 'bringing it back home' football crisis, or just another dead cat?

They got their extension to the grace period, and now, having pocketed that, want to abrogate their responsibilities to implementing it by stoking the Unionist and Loyalist terror gangs to increase their threatening behaviour.

What should the EU do now?

dogbert27 · 21-07-2021 9:18am

https://boards.ie/discussion/comment/117640065#Comment_117640065

Nothing. It's an internal UK problem.

Brexit Impact on Northern Ireland

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