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Covid 19 Part XXXV-956,720 ROI (5,952 deaths) 452,946 NI (3,002 deaths) (08/01) Read OP

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Comments

  • #4352
    Arghus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,411 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    TefalBrain wrote: »
    65k people at a football match in Hungary today.

    Christ we are so slow at moving on with life here.

    Worth bearing in mind that Hungary have twice our population, but six times our deaths, at least.

    But they got to go to a football match, so that's good.


  • #4353
    Stormyteacup
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,003 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    Amirani wrote: »
    It's for a number of reasons, one of which is that people with very high CT values are often re-tested and not counted as positives.

    Yes but that was my point. There’s no directive as to which samples are retested, or at what CT values positives are discounted. Many have just taken it for granted that labs are investigating individual cases - just as many took it for granted that coroners were looking into individual deaths (they aren’t), or that sequencing is being done on enough samples to give an accurate picture of variant spread (it isn’t). Guidelines are just that -really does not mean they have been translated into real life practice.


  • #4354
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    TefalBrain wrote: »
    65k people at a football match in Hungary today.

    Christ we are so slow at moving on with life here.

    Yep, and one of the highest debt levels in the entire world with a large chunk of that coming from an insanely long lockdown.

    But when the young start questioning us about why they can’t buy a house, we can mumble some gibberish about the Hungarians having higher deaths one year.


  • #4355
    manofwisdom
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,120 ✭✭✭manofwisdom


    TefalBrain wrote: »
    65k people at a football match in Hungary today.

    Christ we are so slow at moving on with life here.
    Overly cautious as seen with only allowing 3% of the Croke Park capacity into the league final at the weekend.


  • #4356
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Yep, and one of the highest debt levels in the entire world with a large chunk of that coming from an insanely long lockdown.

    But when the young start questioning us about why they can’t buy a house, we can mumble some gibberish about the Hungarians having higher deaths one year.

    Why is it "gibberish" to point out that Hungary has such a high mortality rate?


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  • #4357
    Coillte_Bhoy
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,952 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Yep, and one of the highest debt levels in the entire world with a large chunk of that coming from an insanely long lockdown.

    But when the young start questioning us about why they can’t buy a house, we can mumble some gibberish about the Hungarians having higher deaths one year.

    30,000 deaths with a population twice ours and ruled by a right wing demagogue, aye lets follow them alright :rolleyes:


  • #4358
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »
    30,000 deaths with a population twice ours and ruled by a right wing demagogue, aye lets follow them alright :rolleyes:

    It also has the highest cancer mortality rate in the EU. Not a shining example of pandemic control or general healthcare.


  • #4359
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 4,806 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Coillte_Bhoy wrote: »
    30,000 deaths with a population twice ours and ruled by a right wing demagogue, aye lets follow them alright :rolleyes:

    Nobody said that at all.

    But perhaps we could calm down a bit moaning about people having a laugh on beaches etc.


  • #4360
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Germany with a decent crowd in the stadium tonight too, their pandemic response has been alright, hasn't it?


  • #4361
    Vicxas
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,629 ✭✭✭✭Vicxas


    AdamD wrote: »
    Germany with a decent crowd in the stadium tonight too, their pandemic response has been alright, hasn't it?

    I have a friend there and she told me that restrictions were tough but they were per region so they could vary between them all.


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  • #4362
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    quokula wrote: »
    It seems strange to put that down to antigen tests that are barely being used, rather than the rapid vaccine rollout or the summer weather.
    Barely being used? You have to go out of your way to avoid the Antigen test tents and prefabs around here. It is paying off though, infection and mortality rates are completely suppressed but you'll have the usual suspects here doffing their caps to NPHET and their strategy of absolutely not using a high quality tool to detect infections inexpensively and quickly.
    Free antigen testing has been a cornerstone of the strategy here.


  • #4363
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 2,892 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Vicxas wrote: »
    I have a friend there and she told me that restrictions were tough but they were per region so they could vary between them all.
    That's because they know down to the regional level how things are progressing and can throttle the severity of the restrictions to the level that is appropriate for that region. Knowledge is power.
    Check on the dashboard on rki.de

    There was an example of Mannheim and Heidelberg which are right beside each other where there is a lot of public transport traffic and based on infection levels you could wear a normal surgical mask until you reach the suburb of Mannheim and must then put on a FFP2 mask all because they know the infection levels on a daily basis and measure over the last 7 days, not 14 days because 14 days isn't granular enough.


  • #4364
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,775 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Vicxas wrote: »
    I have a friend there and she told me that restrictions were tough but they were per region so they could vary between them all.

    It depends on the region. They have a system like the United States where each region has their own COVID-19 rules.

    That said, it's safe to say that Germany has been very prudent and practical though (as always!); in fact, I would say far more balanced and reasoned compared to the relatively extreme approach adopted by NPHET. Pat Kenny was speaking to the journalist Fladge Dampener last week, who resides in Germany, and he noted how they were far more relaxed about cases than us, as we seem obsessed with "cases" in Ireland.

    I know some experiments are taking place this month in Ireland re: a few mass events to see how things go, but it's back to the same over-sensitive bureaucratic approach to how we manage events in this country. Better to take calculated risks than always assuming the worst case scenario will come to pass!


  • #4365
    Dr. Bre
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,873 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    ZX7R wrote: »
    Surprised there is no outrage about the mass gathering of protesters in Dublin today.
    Must be that they weren't drinking ha.

    They were wearing GAA jerseys


  • #4366
    Klonker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,669 ✭✭✭Klonker


    Martina1991 wrote: »
    https://twitter.com/stapalato/status/1404502055172050945?s=19

    A thread with a little more detail from the hse antigen test working group.

    "TL:DR - PCR remains the gold standard for detection of SARS-CoV-2. Missing virus present at low levels, as antigen tests often do, can miss seriously ill, infectious, or pre-infectious individuals. Performance in real world significantly differs from manufacturers data. "

    "In meat processing plants, antigen test sensitivity was 51.9% compared with PCR. Looking at asymptomatic individuals with Ct values <=30 (equating to substantial viral load), test sensitivity of 68.9% did not meet WHO acceptiblity criteria (≥80% sensitivity)"

    PCR always be the method others are compared to because it is the gold standard. New methods will always be compared to the gold standard. That is the most accurate way of measuring an analyte.

    The downfall of PCR is that its "too sensitive ". There are procedures and protocols in place to reduce these incidences, yet the line of false positives being a significant factor in cases and prolonging restrictions is still trotted out. Its not true.

    Here are findings that asymptomatic people in meant palnts with high viral loads were missed by antigen tests.

    People and "experts" can debate til the cows come home. Its not going to change the results that people don't want to hear. There's the data. There's the findings. This is why decisions and policy are based on real world scientific data.

    Some good info in that report that I found interesting:

    In symptomatic cases almost all positive PCR cases were also positive antigen cases when using ct 25 cycles.

    In the asymptomatic cases, it's a pity there wasn't more positive cases so more antigen brands could be tested. Only one had adequate amounts of positive tests to be tested and that was a nasal swab test rather than the more accurate nasopharyngael swab test. Even at that it had a accuracy of about 80% against ct 25 cycles which is not bad in my opinion. Also its a pity this was a self swab test as and not a professionally swabbed test. I would love to see it revisited but I doubt it will.

    I don't think antigen tests should replace PCR tests as used for symptomatic cases abd test and trace just yet but I think they should be used for screening for international travel and large gatherings as you can have results in minutes.


  • #4367
    nocoverart
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭nocoverart


    On the plus side, covid will eventually taper off. On the negative side, a deepening concern for climate change is only around the corner. There’s even a minute possibility that the whole UFO thing might be real and that’s probably the only positive. Jaysus, all I wanted out of life was a few pints and a kebab afterwards.


  • #4368
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,422 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    nocoverart wrote: »
    Jaysus, all I wanted out of life was a few pints and a kebab afterwards.

    That makes you an avowed enemy of the killjoys who consider the pub environment to be a haven for Covid because they haven't darkened the doorstep of a dreaded local in years.


  • #4369
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Deleted User wrote: »
    That makes you an avowed enemy of the killjoys who consider the pub environment to be a haven for Covid because they haven't darkened the doorstep of a dreaded local in years.

    But remember Berties_Horse, that we also need to consider the thousands of infections that resulted from Tony's "absolute shock" at that weekend outdoor drinking. He hasn't mentioned how many, but there must be loads of cases, mustn't there!


  • #4370
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    That's because they know down to the regional level how things are progressing and can throttle the severity of the restrictions to the level that is appropriate for that region. Knowledge is power.
    Check on the dashboard on rki.de

    There was an example of Mannheim and Heidelberg which are right beside each other where there is a lot of public transport traffic and based on infection levels you could wear a normal surgical mask until you reach the suburb of Mannheim and must then put on a FFP2 mask all because they know the infection levels on a daily basis and measure over the last 7 days, not 14 days because 14 days isn't granular enough.

    I can just imagine the level of discussion here if you were required to change you mask as the Ennis to Limerick bus crossed the Shannon. “The virus knows where it is now does it” “just like the 9 euro meal” “jokeshop country”


  • #4371
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,076 ✭✭✭Polar101


    manofwisdom wrote: »
    Overly cautious as seen with only allowing 3% of the Croke Park capacity into the league final at the weekend.

    If there were no restrictions, would a Derry-Offaly game fill more than 3% of Croke Park?


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  • #4372
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    TefalBrain wrote: »
    65k people at a football match in Hungary today.

    Christ we are so slow at moving on with life here.
    I thought it was the UK's progress people were clamouring to rapidly emulate not so long ago, despite them having been significantly ahead in vaccinations. Are we shifting to Hungary, to avoid the pun?


  • #4373
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,296 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Ficheall wrote: »
    I thought it was the UK's progress people were clamouring to rapidly emulate not so long ago, despite them having been significantly ahead in vaccinations. Are we shifting to Hungary, to avoid the pun?
    yep and given that Hungary has the second worst covid death rate in the world with a mortality rate in those tested of nearly 4% overall(compared to ours at 1.8% in the highest risk groups) and their graph is still high though levelling out so not exactly a great example to emulate.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #4374
    bennyineire
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,528 ✭✭✭bennyineire


    Polar101 wrote: »
    If there were no restrictions, would a Derry-Offaly game fill more than 3% of Croke Park?

    Yes


  • #4375
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ficheall wrote: »
    I thought it was the UK's progress people were clamouring to rapidly emulate not so long ago, despite them having been significantly ahead in vaccinations. Are we shifting to Hungary, to avoid the pun?

    Must say I find this quite amusing. I'd much rather be in the UK than Ireland right now. If you aren't obsessing over Covid figures (which arent even bad), there's a lot fewer restrictions and more life to be living.

    Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.


  • #4376
    Ficheall
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,042 ✭✭✭Ficheall


    AdamD wrote: »
    Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.
    Delighted pausing their reopening was necessary? No.
    Delighted they're doing the sensible thing and pausing their reopening to prevent the virus taking off again? Yes.


  • #4377
    bucketybuck
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,046 ✭✭✭✭bucketybuck


    AdamD wrote: »
    Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.

    The key word being "paused".

    There are some on here who would have you believe the UK were going "back into lockdown" and rolling it all back, when in fact all they are talking about is waiting a bit longer before opening nightclubs.

    Such nuance is lost on the Irish mice however, who remain poised to scurry back to their holes at the first hint of trouble.


  • #4378
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    AdamD wrote: »
    Must say I find this quite amusing. I'd much rather be in the UK than Ireland right now. If you aren't obsessing over Covid figures (which arent even bad), there's a lot fewer restrictions and more life to be living.

    Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.
    Like so much about this people are jaded and our only real focus at this stage is the rate of progress of our own vaccination programme. We've got dates for our relaxation of measures and most people have mentally adjusted for that, that is except for those who think we've got it all wrong everywhere.


  • #4379
    goingnowhere
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,406 ✭✭✭goingnowhere


    AdamD wrote: »
    Must say I find this quite amusing. I'd much rather be in the UK than Ireland right now. If you aren't obsessing over Covid figures (which arent even bad), there's a lot fewer restrictions and more life to be living.

    Really get the impression some on here are utterly delighted the UK paused their next phase of reopening.

    Worst numbers in Europe currently.

    We are tied to the UK whether we like it or not and the rapid opening up in the UK has followed the classic UK line of over promise and hope for the best, and we will have to take a hit from this.

    If Delta gains hold here and cases rise, what little of a Summer we could have had is finished for us and travel is a dream. If we can maintain a downward numbers regardless of Delta we might escape. We have a short window between now and mid July to get our house in order.

    We have 3 positives
    1. Much higher vaccine uptake across all groups than the UK which struggled with minorities and a touch of tin foil hat stuff
    2. We have Pfizer as our primary vaccine which has the edge over AZ
    3. We didn't go mad and open up indoor hospitality


  • #4380
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,836 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    goingnowhere wrote: »
    Worst numbers in Europe currently.

    We are tied to the UK whether we like it or not and the rapid opening up in the UK has followed the classic UK line of over promise and hope for the best, and we will have to take a hit from this.

    If Delta gains hold here and cases rise, what little of a Summer we could have had is finished for us and travel is a dream. If we can maintain a downward numbers regardless of Delta we might escape. We have a short window between now and mid July to get our house in order.

    We have 3 positives
    1. Much higher vaccine uptake across all groups than the UK which struggled with minorities and a touch of tin foil hat stuff
    2. We have Pfizer as our primary vaccine which has the edge over AZ
    3. We didn't go mad and open up indoor hospitality

    Unless I'm misreading something, the UK don't have anything coming close to the worst numbers in Europe currently.


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  • #4381
    Renjit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    AdamD wrote: »
    Unless I'm misreading something, the UK don't have anything coming close to the worst numbers in Europe currently.

    7 days average detection is going up for UK compared to Italy, France, Germany etc. They paused easing based on that to wait and watch how it pans out.


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