San Francisco 49ers Discussion

adrian522 wrote: »

I'm not sure they are throwing up smokescreens they just haven't said or leaked who they are taking. I hope it's Justin Fields I think he's the best prospect of the 3, I'd understand Lance but think he has the most bust potential (though maybe also the highest ceiling). Really hope they haven't given up all those picks for Jones.

So fields, Lance, and Jones in that order then Adrian ? Well they’ve gone big for a reason and what I’ve seen and read about Lance, as you say he has the higher ceiling but he wasn’t exactly running a throw heavy offence last season but the overall system was a pro system.

This last month since the trade has felt like a full seven month offseason - going from initial excitement to weeks of dread that they could be making a huge mistake, that could eventually mean we lose Kyle. I am so happy that we are nearly done and this will hopefully be my last rant before Thursday.

My overall QB rankings go Lawrence >> Fields > Wilson >>> Lance >> Jones.

I have Wilson and Fields very close but Wilson scares me due to his injury history, frame, and lack of playing under any real pressure.

I think any of the 5 will succeed with the 49ers and whoever they draft should be favourite to win rookie of the year, presuming Jimmy is traded prior to the season. Though each have their flaws I am happy for the 49ers to take any of the first four having giving up the capital to make the trade... and then we have McCorkle Jones.

Trading and taking Jones is like getting your wages for the month along with an advance of the next 2 months and betting it all on a 1/100 favourite in a three horse race - you're risking a lot for a small potential win, Jones' ceiling is lower than the ceiling of every other QB in the NFC West. Now this might still make sense if it was nearly unanimous from all experts that this horse is the best of the 3, however in this situation it is the opposite - practically every expert says Jones is the worst option. Not only are you gambling a huge amount for a low ceiling of returns - you're also betting that you are smarter than practically every other evaluator out there.

There are few arguments that are trotted out for Jones that I just don't see. That he is the:

• Best scheme fit - though Kyle can adjust his scheme to his QB, Jones hasn't shown key elements of what he has used historically - he barely took any snaps under center, rarely used boot action, and throwing on the run was a tiny part of their game. Wilson, Fields, and Lance all did more things that align to staples of Kyle's scheme.
• Safest pick - we've seen over and over again in recent seasons how less mobile QB rookies struggle compared to those that move outside the pocket, especially when they don't have a top tier arm nor the ability to perform outside of structure. He also has the most red flags out of the QB group from trouble with the law (at least one DUI), bad physical shape, personality issues, inability to beat out a player who has hardly set the NFL on fire, social media issues, and inexperience (has as many games as Lance, who has been consistently dinged for this despite being 3 years older when he earned most of his starts).
• Most pro ready - it is easy to look the most pro ready when you're in the perfect situation in Alabama - your feet look good and you can go through progressions when your OL is 9 out of 10 times going to each do everything perfectly to protect you, you can throw with anticipation when you have multiple 1st rounds WRs and a 1st round RB who nearly always win their 1 on 1s, you can have ridiculously high competition stats when the OC is scheming these talented players open and giving you a huge number of dump offs/screens. When Jones was taken away from all of this at the Senior Bowl (like he will be in the NFL), he struggled all week and in no way looked like a guy who should go at 3. When people say the most pro ready it seems like they really mean that he is the closest to his ceiling and this is what he'll be as a pro.

Jones also flies in the face of what Kyle has claimed over the last few years. He said they looked at Stafford, Watson, hoped Josh Allen would come out in 2017, and had Russell Wilson on their board before Cousins. Just 3 weeks ago Kyle called it 'ridiculous' that Cousins is his prototype QB - the guy that most see as the best case future for Jones. Kyle said what he wants is a guy that can do those type of things but is also physically gifted and can run. Kyle has also shown that he is constantly learning on defense and implementing elements to their game of what has caused him problems as an OC. When you flip this around, what has killed the 49ers defense more than anything is guys that can make plays off script and move - like Wilson and Murray twice a year and then the likes of Allen, Mahomes, Jackson. The QBs his defense has had the most success against are those who are more limited when it comes to movement - like Goff.

Having said all that, I have pretty much come to terms that it is pretty likely that Jones is the pick. Media noise has now started to give more specifics of elements that Kyle likes (e.g., Sliver and footwork) rather than just generic 'is like Cousins reasons'. If Jones is the pick I expect more of this to come out this week to try to get fans and media more onside with the pick 'making sense'. This move also fits Kyle's history of moving up for guys that he didn't need to and they have nearly all turned out badly (Foster, Williams, Pettis, Beathard). If Jones isn't picked at 3, it wouldn't be surprising if falls out of the top 10 - I don't see that for any of the other QBs. The final element that came into play in the last week that concerns me is Field's diagnosis of epilepsy - if Fields is taken off their board then I can understand there are enough issues, like accuracy, for Lance that could make a case for (though my order of preference would be take Lance or have never made the trade and potentially stick with Jimmy for the year if a QB wasn't on the board).

If Jones is the pick then I'll obviously be supporting him but they better be sure he has the thickest skin and can handle pressure the pressure that is coming. I can't remember any pick this far in advance of a draft that was so widely hated by a fan base and local media - sure fans have been annoyed on draft night but this has been a consistent month of toxic bile and many don't even believe it is possible so worse is to come. The guy is probably the most hated QB in 49ers history and that is even before Goodell calls his name. Kyle and Lynch will have also in one swoop turned a massive element of the fanbase against them and I don't think there is an easy way back aside from a Super Bowl or Jones significantly outperforming both Fields and Lance.

TL;DR Jones is a good QB prospect that would have some success as a 49er, I don't want it to be Jones at 3, it shouldn't be Jones at 3, it might be Jones at 3, god help Jones if he is picked at 3.

Thank god this is nearly over

Kyle & John presser just now. Not much in it really except the very last answer from kyle...something along the lines he’d like a Drew Brees that can run like Lamar!

adrian522 wrote: »

Schefter has been all over the map on this one.

https://twitter.com/GetUpESPN/status/1387404020864671748?s=19

Impressive backpedaling and hedging there.

If the pick isn't Jones there should be humble pie eating from a lot of the media. Some of them have been insufferable regarding fans questioning the vague support for the near certainty they portrayed for the last few weeks.

Right now depending on which former GM or executive you believe, it's certain to be Jones or Lance or Fields!!

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Well it’s going to be one of the three. Look we will just have to see what happens. It’s all we can do but whether by accident or design the niners have created an interest in this years draft.

The confusion was by design - they've repeatedly said they don't want people knowing the pick beforehand, apparently even today the coordinators don't know. Kyle's 'Maybe, probably, but maybe not' from the press conference.

The real question is how much of the media commentary has been purposeful smokescreens or testing for internal leaks. The fact that within a few minutes of the trade all the insiders came out of nowhere that it was for Jones just stinks to me (as someone who unfortunately believes it is McCorkle based on the continued hammering from the media since).

Ian Rappaport reporting the Niners called the Packers on Tuesday! As I said a while ago, that would be my preference today but not going to happen!

adrian522 wrote: »

Trey Lace is now the favourite to go at number 3 !

Rumours of it going from Jones to Lance to Rodgers today is going to make it hurt again if it ends up being Jones.

I thought I'd buried my hopes but they've come back again.