UK/Ireland Zero Covid Area

[Deleted User] · 23-01-2021 2:31pm #1

Will UK/Ireland form a zero covid area with only essential travellers allowed in?

Sam McConkey said this way back in April/May of last year. Looks like Boris and european leaders have excepted that international tourism is dead in the short to medium term. When we cannot go more than 5k from our house for most of the last 12 months why can a tourist from any place in the world fly in to ireland with little of any enforced restrictions? McConkey can be dramatic, but i think history will remember him more kindly than alot of other people on the subject.

begbysback · 23-01-2021 2:35pm

There is no such thing as zero covid, New Zealand is in Alice in wonderland, only permanently lockdown would achieve zero, let’s see what happens when prime minister explains that to the kiwis.

Coybig_ · 23-01-2021 2:42pm

McConkey who famously cited Greenland and the Faroe Islands as two nations to look at when modelling this strategy.

This has been stated many times, but Ireland cannot adopt a zero Covid policy for economic, geographical and political reasons.

We have vaccines being rolled out worldwide and vulnerable are on target to be vaccinated by the Summer in the worst case scenario. Vaccines can be altered in a matter of weeks to adjust for any variant which may not be covered.

What sense does this policy make exactly, apart from travel having become the "Takeaway Pints" of January 2021 - something stupid for people to be outraged about.

[Deleted User] · 23-01-2021 2:42pm

begbysback wrote: »

There is no such thing as zero covid, New Zealand is in Alice in wonderland, only permanently lockdown would achieve zero, let’s see what happens when prime minister explains that to the kiwis.

Zero covid strategy means:

Small fires of covid can be put out easily.

Hospitals not busted with thousands of people not getting treatment for other diseases.

Whole economy can reopen (hospitality).

People can have relative free movement in their zone/country.

Less mental health issues with population.

Essentially what zero covid does is buy us time. Time to get vaccination program rolled out. Time to come up with other treatments. Its not forever but it buys us time to stop excess mortality and take pressure off our hospitals. It sure beats being told to stay indoors indefinitely.

Coybig_ · 23-01-2021 2:45pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Zero covid strategy means:

Small fires of covid can be put out easily.

Hospitals not busted with thousands of people not getting treatment for other diseases.

Whole economy can reopen (hospitality).

People can have relative free movement.

Less mental health issues with population.

Essentially what zero covid does is buy us time. Time to get vaccination program rolled out. Time to come up with other treatments. Its not forever but it buys us time to stop excess mortality and take pressure off our hospitals. It sure beats being told to stay indoors indefinitely.

This lockdown would still be occuring exactly the same as it would were Zero Covid a policy which was introduced here tomorrow.

By the time restrictions are eased here the vulnerable will be vaccinated and that group, according to aul Leo himself covers 98 percent of the deaths which have occured as a result of Covid 19. And as we leave winter, which will help us fight a virus which has a seasonal element. For what reason would we need to adopt this policy just as the vaccine has arrived and is being distributed, and the vulnerable becoming safe?

[Deleted User] · 23-01-2021 2:47pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

McConkey who famously cited Greenland and the Faroe Islands as two nations to look at when modelling this strategy.

This has been stated many times, but Ireland cannot adopt a zero Covid policy for economic, geographical and political reasons.

We have vaccines being rolled out worldwide and vulnerable are on target to be vaccinated by the Summer in the worst case scenario. Vaccines can be altered in a matter of weeks to adjust for any variant which may not be covered.

What sense does this policy make exactly, apart from travel having become the "Takeaway Pints" of January 2021 - something stupid for people to be outraged about.

If this "makes no sense" why is europe now after twelve months of crisis communicating such moves (enforced international essential travel only). Essentially that is what zero covid is. The plates are shifting in europe...

Ireland on its own would have struggled to go zero covid. However a zone of almost 80 million (Uk Ireland) can be done. Varadkar et al hid behind europes policy. With UK and eu now more firmly behind zero enforced international tourism things have changed dramatically.

[Deleted User] · 23-01-2021 2:55pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

This lockdown would still be occuring exactly the same as it would were Zero Covid a policy which was introduced here tomorrow.

By the time restrictions are eased here the vulnerable will be vaccinated and that group, according to aul Leo himself covers 98 percent of the deaths which have occured as a result of Covid 19. And as we leave winter, which will help us fight a virus which has a seasonal element. For what reason would we need to adopt this policy just as the vaccine has arrived and is being distributed, and the vulnerable becoming safe?

Fears new strains of covid will evade vaccinations means european strategy in last 12 months is in tatters. Many of the people who are hospitalised are under 60. Your above scenario was the thinking up to a month ago in europe. Redundant and out of date thinking at this stage.

The_Brood · 23-01-2021 3:12pm

begbysback wrote: »

There is no such thing as zero covid, New Zealand is in Alice in wonderland, only permanently lockdown would achieve zero, let’s see what happens when prime minister explains that to the kiwis.

Except that New Zealand very much is real and succesful in its handling of the epidemic? An island is an island. Everything else is politics.

Please anyone explain to me the exact reason why the island of Ireland cannot totally shut down any and all border travel other than for obvious essentials. And before you finish the sentence, explain why that is more difficult to do than, say, locking down the entire population for nearly a year, and destroying the economy and people's lives?

And explain why government officials should not be put in prison for refusing to lock down the borders because of whatever political consideration, but feel completely free to destroy all our collective lives?

The_Brood · 23-01-2021 3:16pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

McConkey who famously cited Greenland and the Faroe Islands as two nations to look at when modelling this strategy.

This has been stated many times, but Ireland cannot adopt a zero Covid policy for economic, geographical and political reasons.

We have vaccines being rolled out worldwide and vulnerable are on target to be vaccinated by the Summer in the worst case scenario. Vaccines can be altered in a matter of weeks to adjust for any variant which may not be covered.

What sense does this policy make exactly, apart from travel having become the "Takeaway Pints" of January 2021 - something stupid for people to be outraged about.

Ah so political reasons are stopping it. Tell me what political reasons are more important than the entire population and the entire economy locked down for a year now?

This is not debatable. Lives have been lost. People are destroyed. Many need to be going to prison for this.

Itsaduck1 · 23-01-2021 3:21pm

Deleted User wrote: »

Fears new strains of covid will evade vaccinations means european strategy in last 12 months is in tatters. Many of the people who are hospitalised are under 60. Your above scenario was the thinking up to a month ago in europe. Redundant and out of date thinking at this stage.

That's the elephant in the room alright, I was always curious why China and the Pacific countries went for Covid eradication ( zero covid ) vs living with Covid that the West tried

Can see now they made the correct choice and living with Covid doesn't work and that could even be with a vaccine if the rumours are true.

How hard could Zero Covid be anyway? If we get cases down to single digits, track and trace those new cases, close border, hotel quarantine.

It's 2021, we are supposed to have cars that can drive themselves and be capable of sending humans to the moon.

[Deleted User] · 23-01-2021 3:27pm

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

That's the elephant in the room alright, I was always curious why China and the Pacific countries went for Covid eradication ( zero covid ) vs living with Covid that the West tried

Can see now they made the correct choice and living with Covid doesn't work and that could even be with a vaccine if the rumours are true.

How hard could Zero Covid be anyway? If we get cases down to single digits, track and trace those new cases, close border, hotel quarantine.

It's 2021, we are supposed to have cars that can drive themselves and be capable of sending humans to the moon.

If we want to "beat" this virus we have to work to our strengths. Zero covid is yet another tool in our arsenal along with everything else employed. Realistically its going to take a number of years minimum for the world to defeat covid. We have got to think longer term. With Boris and europe turning direction we will now follow. Realistically us going zero covid alone was too unpalatable to our politicians and health advisors (nphet).

Probes · 23-01-2021 3:27pm

Itsaduck1 wrote: »

That's the elephant in the room alright, I was always curious why China and the Pacific countries went for Covid eradication ( zero covid ) vs living with Covid that the West tried

Can see now they made the correct choice and living with Covid doesn't work and that could even be with a vaccine if the rumours are true.

How hard could Zero Covid be anyway? If we get cases down to single digits, track and trace those new cases, close border, hotel quarantine.

It's 2021, we are supposed to have cars that can drive themselves and be capable of sending humans to the moon.

It'd be hard, but the more countries that realise zero covid is the way forward the easier it will be. I can't see another way out of this at the moment, it seems clear that new vaccines are going to be needed, if not now then in the very near future. It's better if we minimise international travel and put out our own fires and get some internal economy moving than this awful lockdown we are in.

Rodin · 23-01-2021 3:29pm

Coybig_ wrote: »

McConkey who famously cited Greenland and the Faroe Islands as two nations to look at when modelling this strategy.

This has been stated many times, but Ireland cannot adopt a zero Covid policy for economic, geographical and political reasons.

We have vaccines being rolled out worldwide and vulnerable are on target to be vaccinated by the Summer in the worst case scenario. Vaccines can be altered in a matter of weeks to adjust for any variant which may not be covered.

What sense does this policy make exactly, apart from travel having become the "Takeaway Pints" of January 2021 - something stupid for people to be outraged about.

Ireland can't afford NOT to shut the borders to all but essential travel.
How much has the current approach cost?

PUP, PPE, lost income tax revenue, lost domestic economy/tourism....

[Deleted User] · 23-01-2021 3:33pm

Rodin wrote: »

Ireland can't afford NOT to shut the borders to all but essential travel.
How much has the current approach cost?

PUP, PPE, lost income tax revenue, lost domestic economy/tourism....

Exactly. Every metric ecomonic, social and healthwise zero covid is better. However we are 1% of eu. Maybe we could never have gone it alone. Frustrating that it took europe 1 year to realise what most of Asia/Oceania knew this time last year. No point looking back now though. Be grateful the penny has dropped. You would wonder at the "brains" in europe. I think alot less of european leadership in general.

meeeeh · 23-01-2021 3:41pm

I guess zero Covid policy in conjunction with UK would possible but hard work. UK has much more traffic in and out of country including trains. Big part of that would economic activity. Ireland would be completely dependent on that . And we would need to harmonize our actions with London. Optics of doing what Boris tells us to do wouldn't be great.

Zero covid just for Ireland would never work. Arlene can dig her heels in and then you need to close border with North. If we do that DUP has perfect excuse after four years when Northern Irish protocol is up for a renewal to show that border is possible between Republic and the North and there is no need for border checks in Irish sea. So you end up with SF and DUP kicking up on both sides of the border and I believe that would be way more costly and dangerous than not closing the border.

ginoginelli · 23-01-2021 3:46pm

Rodin wrote: »

Ireland can't afford NOT to shut the borders to all but essential travel.
How much has the current approach cost?

PUP, PPE, lost income tax revenue, lost domestic economy/tourism....

We can't afford not to.

Hello 2D Person Below · 23-01-2021 3:50pm

Unfortunately it's a year too late, OP.

firemansam4 · 23-01-2021 3:51pm

Unless Ireland and the UK both adopt a very strict zero Covid policy I can't see how it would work here in relation to the border.

There is not a hope that Arlene and the unionists will impose an all Ireland approach on this and ban anyone entering from the rest of the UK to the North. Its just not going to happen.

So then we are left with relying on the UK to also adopt a very robust zero Covid policy as well, this is not going to happen in the short term.

If it starts looking more likely that the vaccines prove to be ineffective against the new strains then maybe it might focus minds more to looking into it, but we have a long way to go before we can begin to achieve zero Covid here and the UK from the complete mess we are in at the moment.

PhoneMain · 23-01-2021 3:51pm

I'd love a zero covid islands policy but I dont think it's workable. Ideally I think a zero island policy would work and I'd move heaven and earth to try get the DUP on board but I dont think they would, they're too frightened that it would be a step towards a united ireland which is very frustrating since they were all for it with Foot and Mouth when it could affect their big farming voters.

Following this I'd be all for and joint UK & Ireland arrangement but I dont think it's feasible for 2 reasons:
1) Johnsons govt seem to have a completely different feeling regarding Covid, it's probably more aligned with our own at the moment but since the start they've have a very lax approach to Covid.
2) I wonder how Europe would take it if we were putting restrictions on EU visitors coming in but not restricting UK visitors. I dont think they'd be too happy.

Ideally Id love a zero covid island but I'd be all for mandatory hotel quarantines but I really feel that people would just fly into Belfast and come down that way. We couldnt seal the border with the north.

sioda · 23-01-2021 3:52pm

Zero Covid in relation to Ireland is a myth and that is all it ever will be.

In conjunction with the UK won't work either as we are a member of the EU and can't undo the open borders. Comparisons with New Zealand are utterly ridiculous its an island nation at the end of the earth external to any economic union but much more important it doesn't have a OPEN border with another country.

[Deleted User] · 23-01-2021 3:52pm

Finances will dry up eventually and we’ll have to start forgetting about Covid. With a bit of luck, sooner than later.

Happydays2020 · 23-01-2021 3:55pm

No way. This is not 1920. What planet are these medics on?

PhoneMain · 23-01-2021 3:55pm

sioda wrote: »

Zero Covid in relation to Ireland is a myth and that is all it ever will be.

In conjunction with the UK won't work either as we are a member of the EU and can't undo the open borders. Comparisons with New Zealand are utterly ridiculous its an island nation at the end of the earth external to any economic union but much more important it doesn't have a OPEN border with another country.

Exactly, between Clones & Butlers Bridge, the N54/A3 crosses the border 4 times. Thats not controllable. If the Unionists aren't on board, no amount of hotel quarantining is going to stop people getting in if they want to.

The_Brood · 23-01-2021 4:00pm

sioda wrote: »

Zero Covid in relation to Ireland is a myth and that is all it ever will be.

In conjunction with the UK won't work either as we are a member of the EU and can't undo the open borders. Comparisons with New Zealand are utterly ridiculous its an island nation at the end of the earth external to any economic union but much more important it doesn't have a OPEN border with another country.

Except that Hungary and other EU countries have done that no problem and the EU havent at all tried to stop them? What is this cultish "can't" mentality to everything effective proposed, but full steam ahead for total economic lockdown and ruin for year on end? Some of us clearly arent affected as bad as others, that is clear.

[Deleted User] · 23-01-2021 4:00pm

firemansam4 wrote: »

Unless Ireland and the UK both adopt a very strict zero Covid policy I can't see how it would work here in relation to the border.

There is not a hope that Arlene and the unionists will impose an all Ireland approach on this and ban anyone entering from the rest of the UK to the North. Its just not going to happen.

So then we are left with relying on the UK to also adopt a very robust zero Covid policy as well, this is not going to happen in the short term.

If it starts looking more likely that the vaccines prove to be infective against the new strains then maybe it might focus minds more to looking into it, but we have a long way to go before we can begin to achieve zero Covid here and the UK from the complete mess we are in at the moment.

If it starts... is already the case (vaccine efficacy reduced from 90% to 50% with SA strain) hence eus/UK recent change in stance. The only foregiveness i can give to european leadership for this nonsense in last 12 months is europe is very fragmented. Billions of the worlds populations leaderships realised zero covid was only strategy to follow one year ago. Very disappointed with european and irish leadership. Were credit is due hard left in ireland have been shouting this from the start. Varadkar has been on the wrong side of this from the start. Can he talk his way out of this one?

meeeeh · 23-01-2021 4:04pm

The_Brood wrote: »

Except that Hungary and other EU countries have done that no problem and the EU havent at all tried to stop them? What is this cultish "can't" mentality to everything effective proposed, but full steam ahead for total economic lockdown and ruin for year on end? Some of us clearly arent affected as bad as others, that is clear.

Most of those countries still have border infrastructure on every road that croses the border. Putting up border with NI is more similar to putting up borders after break up of Yougoslavia. Some borders are still not resolved 30 years later.

PhoneMain · 23-01-2021 4:06pm

meeeeh wrote: »

Most of those countries still have border infrastructure on every road that croses the border. Putting up border with NI is more similar to putting up borders after break up of Yougoslavia. Some borders are still not resolved 30 years later.

The natural border for them in a lot of places is rivers and the roads that cross them are main roads which are much easier to police.

Happydays2020 · 23-01-2021 4:08pm

Can this thread just be renamed the zero Covid thread and it can be an echo chamber similar to the restrictions thread?

is_that_so · 23-01-2021 4:10pm

The_Brood wrote: »

Except that Hungary and other EU countries have done that no problem and the EU havent at all tried to stop them? What is this cultish "can't" mentality to everything effective proposed, but full steam ahead for total economic lockdown and ruin for year on end? Some of us clearly arent affected as bad as others, that is clear.

300 roads and political realities say can't.

[Deleted User] · 23-01-2021 4:10pm

jacdaniel2014 wrote: »

Finances will dry up eventually and we’ll have to start forgetting about Covid. With a bit of luck, sooner than later.

How do you "forget" about covid when you cant go more than 5k from your home and hospitals are busted and unable to treat people for cancer etc. Zero covid is only practical strategy. Political reasons is only reason it has not been enacted to date. That is slowly erroding due to the fact european politicians are slowly realising we will be dealing with covid for many years.

meeeeh · 23-01-2021 4:12pm

PhoneMain wrote: »

The natural border for them in a lot of places is rivers and the roads that cross them are main roads which are much easier to police.

Plus if you drive trough the border booths and ramps are often still there, they are just not manned most of the time.

UK/Ireland Zero Covid Area

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