Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

spookwoman · 05-10-2020 11:14PM

stockshares wrote: »

Are these ICU numbers correct

https://twitter.com/davidcullinane/status/1313236405703913477?s=19

numbers listed on telly earlier
https://twitter.com/alwaysgivingout/status/1313233034070634499?s=20

iguana · 05-10-2020 11:14PM

hmmm wrote: »

but to my mind at least the concept seems sound and worth a try - I hope somewhere does.

The problem with a 'circuit breaker' is how long it would be needed for to work. IIRC by mid/late-April it was being said that most infections were occurring in private homes. Which makes sense. Curtailing people's movements means infections in the majority of places stop happening. But with everyone at home together, many infected people will infect those they live with. Even with people taking precautions when they know someone they love with is sick, infections in a home setting often can't be prevented (especiallyif bathrooms are shared.) So while infections in retail/social settings would drop dramatically during a short circuit breaker, you run the risk of opening up before the virus has run it's course through private homes and having too many infected people unknowingly coming back out into society.

This risk was probably higher in the spring as the vast majority of infections weren't detected. So hopefully with better testing, we'd have a better chance of the preventing that. But when so many infections can be asymptotic or very mildly symptomatic real caution needs to be exercised. To work effectively a circuit breaker would probably need to be at least 6 weeks long.

polesheep · 05-10-2020 11:14PM

gmisk wrote: »

I'd say Ciara Kelly would love to take over....

Ha ha, I'm sure she would. Seriously though, some people seem to think that those on NPHET are all we've got, when in fact we have quite a few serious hitters in the related sciences and medical fields that we could call on.

MrMusician18 · 05-10-2020 11:15PM

seamus wrote: »

Quite a few freaking out about Varadkar's dressing down of NPHET, but it will gain him a lot of kudos in the "He's just saying what everyone is thinking" stakes.

That is, that it's very easy for NPHET to recommend a hard lockdown when none of them will have to deal with the consequences of it. They'll all go home on their decent state salaries and private health insurance, virtually unaffected by any economic shocks or healthcare restrictions.

I wonder is Varadkar livid at Holohan leaking to the press last night and so is giving him a warning to not play political games.

Where the leak came from hasn't been confirmed. If NPHET was the source then they were right out of order.

But if civil servants can't be frank and honest with their government for fear of it being leaked then Government is not ever going to get the unvarnished honest advice it needs.

mloc123 · 05-10-2020 11:16PM

Third attempt at a family holiday in 2020 now cancelled due to new restrictions.

Tempted to book a week away in some non green list country at this stage... Seems like most others did all summer.

polesheep · 05-10-2020 11:16PM

MrMusician18 wrote: »

No matter what your opinions, who would be willing to serve on a body that's going to get that kind of public treatment?

People who wouldn't be likely to do anything to deserve that kind of public treatment?

05-10-2020 11:16PM

polesheep wrote: »

Ha ha, I'm sure she would. Seriously though, some people seem to think that those on NPHET are all we've got, when in fact we have quite a few serious hitters in the related sciences and medical fields that we could call on.

Who in your opinion?

Mervyn Skidmore · 05-10-2020 11:16PM

seamus wrote: »

That is, that it's very easy for NPHET to recommend a hard lockdown when none of them will have to deal with the consequences of it. They'll all go home on their decent state salaries and private health insurance, virtually unaffected by any economic shocks or healthcare restrictions.

That's very unfair on NPHET. Their remit is public health in response to covid 19. Not public health in response to covid 19 on the understanding that you have a cushy number, good salary, private health insurance blah blah.

hmmm · 05-10-2020 11:17PM

sterz wrote: »

Didn't he say that Israel were trying something similar and no real sign as of yet that it's working?

Israel to my knowledge has an out-of-control epidemic, with very little adherence to rules amongst a large part of its population. What they have is a poorly enforced lockdown in a desperate effort to bring the numbers down.

The "circuit break" as a concept was supposed to happen before numbers got out of control, and before a lockdown became inevitable. It would be a sharp shock to the virus spread.

05-10-2020 11:17PM

Goldengirl wrote: »

Yes. Remember Boris saying much the same as Leo , and the following fortnight it was lockdown in UK with cases out of control.

It’s hardly a lockdown in the UK

GeorgeBailey · 05-10-2020 11:17PM

hmmm wrote: »

It was odd to hear Leo say that NPHET were recommending a "circuit break".

The advantage of circuit breaks as a concept was that it was supposed to give people certainty. You would have a severe lockdown at a time which was pre-announced and for a defined period of time, and so give people and businesses time to prepare.

What you weren't supposed to do was drop it on people largely unannounced.

Leo was perhaps right that it has never really been tried before, but to my mind at least the concept seems sound and worth a try - I hope somewhere does.

Leo also said that it was possible we would do it in the future but that it would have to be thought out and planned for. Which I think is the correct approach.

MrMusician18 · 05-10-2020 11:17PM

polesheep wrote: »

Ha ha, I'm sure she would. Seriously though, some people seem to think that those on NPHET are all we've got, when in fact we have quite a few serious hitters in the related sciences and medical fields that we could call on.

Why would they serve when they could get dumped on from on high by the Tainiste?

Stormyteacup · 05-10-2020 11:17PM

iguana wrote: »

WTAF are you on about? What we know about the virus now that we didn't know then is actually worse. We knew before the lockdown that the IFR was most likely somewhere between 2% and 0.5% and almost certainly toward the lower end of that. The WHO currently estimates the IFR as .62% which was a surprise to precisely no-one with a clue. Our new information is how very contagious it is, that it's airborne and that it's not seemingly seasonal. We've also learned that it leads to a very high rate of post-viral issues in even very mild infections which can cause people problems for months. We've also learned that scientists who warned immunity may not be as good as we hoped may have been right as there are a number of confirmed cases of reinfection already. So maybe you were in a tizzy in March thinking this virus was something so awful that the really bad thing it is seems good. But don't put your lack of knowledge in March on everyone else.

The implications (economic and personal) of a lockdown were also crystal clear in March too. What is it that you think was a surprise to anyone about that?

Not even remotely enough data on the bolded points to put a dent in the fact of Covid being a mild illness to most.

You would imagine 7/8 months in there would be some evidence that ‘long-Covid’ is more prevalent than any other post-viral complications.

And if that many were being reinfected, with all the data collected from contact tracing we could cross check if people are presenting twice for Covid 3/4 months from first positive?

440Hertz · 05-10-2020 11:18PM

Those ICU bed numbers are making me feel I was a total fool to not have emigrated back in 2008.

How the hell can we be that short of ICU beds. Money is going into the system and billions being sloshed on re-designing and redesigning ans relocating the national children’s hospital etc etc

We’re short of medical infrastructure because the political system won’t grasp the nettle and reorganise and reform health.

Mervyn Skidmore · 05-10-2020 11:18PM

Tenzor07 wrote: »

I'd like to see Dr. Martin Feeley heading up the new NPHET committee if there is to be a new one...

Why?

An Ri rua · 05-10-2020 11:18PM

manniot2 wrote: »

At what cost? Please tell me what price are we willing to pay for this,and I don’t mean economically.

You'd rather we had a scandal in a year's time where it comes out in a review or tribunal that professional advice was ignored by semi-literate politicians and their journeymen media advisers?? After all the deaths? That's how we do sh1t in Ireland. Bullsh1t reviews, wipe our feet ón families.
Can you imagine the AG's advice being ignored? Clearly NPHET felt constrained in recent months by the Covid sub-comi-teeee and wanted the Irish people to know their professional assessment. Not good politics, but very effective.
I, for one, am glad that NPHET's advice resonates with my analysis of the figures and my dismay at seeing crowds outside pubs and kids going outside counties to play matches. I mean come on folks. We're not being responsible, not remotely.
Thanks to Holohan's brave stance, I feel assured in taking the moves necessary to protect vulnerable people in my family.
Abre los ojos.

MrMusician18 · 05-10-2020 11:19PM

Mervyn Skidmore wrote: »

That's very unfair on NPHET. Their remit is public health in response to covid 19. Not public health in response to covid 19 on the understanding that you have a cushy number, good salary, private health insurance blah blah.

That was a below the belt remark from Varadkar, a particularly appalling one.

igCorcaigh · 05-10-2020 11:19PM

I, for one, was really surprised about the slight majority in favour of level 5 in that poll on CB live.

Arghus · 05-10-2020 11:19PM

seamus wrote: »

Quite a few freaking out about Varadkar's dressing down of NPHET, but it will gain him a lot of kudos in the "He's just saying what everyone is thinking" stakes.

That is, that it's very easy for NPHET to recommend a hard lockdown when none of them will have to deal with the consequences of it. They'll all go home on their decent state salaries and private health insurance, virtually unaffected by any economic shocks or healthcare restrictions.

I wonder is Varadkar livid at Holohan leaking to the press last night and so is giving him a warning to not play political games.

Somebody leaked that letter, but I wouldn't be too sure that it was Tony Holohan.

Leo getting lots of good press here and elsewhere tonight for sticking it to NPHET. But I'm a bit concerned that our totally competent political leaders are saying one thing and our medical experts are saying another. Which one of them would you bet on eventually being proved right?

NPHET may as well be staffed by Nazis in the eyes of many on here, but I will eat my hat if we don't end up exactly where they are telling us we will end up.

political analyst · 05-10-2020 11:20PM

Why are people on Twitter saying Level 5 is inevitable? The difference between the start of the pandemic and this stage is that, now, healthcare and nursing-home workers have all the PPE they need. Therefore, there is greater protection for the elderly.

Thierry12 · 05-10-2020 11:20PM

Ce he sin wrote: »

No deaths reported today does not equal no deaths from Covid today. The issue with ICU is not increasing by a few beds, it's the possibility that the few remaining beds will soon be taken up by Covid patients leaving decisions to be made as to who gets priority for beds.

Yes its awful

We will have to deny ICU to elderly ( 70+ ) soon

See that we only have 7 available beds for paediatrics right now, we will have to put kids into adult ICU

iguana · 05-10-2020 11:20PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So your theory is the virus has actually got worse the more we have learned since March????

No, the virus has stayed the same. But we haven't learned anything about it that makes it less concerning apart from it not penetrating the host nucleus of the cell to replicate. (So you body will most probably clear it rather than it going dormant and coming back in someway in the future.) The IFR is what was widely expected. It is however more contagious than assumed. And reinfections have occurred a bit faster than was hoped be even some of the more pessimistic predictions. And prevalence of "long Covid," ie post viral inflammation and or fatigue, has turned out to be a bigger problem than was being assumed. Back in March there was almost no fear of people with mild infections having problems for months.

Goldengirl · 05-10-2020 11:20PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Or maybe, just maybe, NPHET decided to go on a solo run? Maybe.

Maybe .
Or maybe government leaked it, not NPHET, because someone, ( Leo or Paul maybe ) have an axe to grind with Tony?

mloc123 · 05-10-2020 11:21PM

Thierry12 wrote: »

Yes its awful

We will have to deny ICU to elderly ( 70+ ) soon

See that we only have 7 available beds for paediatrics right now, we will have to put kids into adult ICU

I think 1 child has made it to ICU since march?

polesheep · 05-10-2020 11:21PM

political analyst wrote: »

Why are people on Twitter saying Level 5 is inevitable? The difference between the start of the pandemic and this stage is that, now, healthcare and nursing-home workers have all the PPE they need. Therefore, there is greater protection for the elderly.

Best to leave it at the bit in bold.

drunkmonkey · 05-10-2020 11:21PM

Arghus wrote: »

NPHET may as well be staffed by Nazi's in the eyes of many on here, but I will eat my hat if we don't end up exactly where they are telling us we will end up.

Where are they telling us we'll end up? I haven't seen any mention of it.
Rolling beat downs is all i'm seeing.

Speak Now · 05-10-2020 11:21PM

Watching primetime on rte +1, there was an angle where they showed Boyd Barrett and Callaghan and it was like the Dennis Waterman sketch with his agent on Little Britain

Goldengirl · 05-10-2020 11:22PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

NPHET started the unprofessional behaviour last night with their leak. It's a bad situation to have NPHET and government clashing in the current circumstances but government had to respond after that.

I didn't see that leak . Just heard it on here .
Fair enough if that is so .

Rob A. Bank · 05-10-2020 11:22PM

Varadker may be an inactive medical doctor but he is certainly not an epidemiologist.

He said that the 'circuit breaker' (severe lockdown) was not working in Israel or Australia.

Israel had peak reported daily cases of 11,315 on Sept 23rd... today it is 2,332.

Australia had peak reported daily cases of 721 on July 30th... today it is 13.

One would hope that the government decision to go against science (joining the likes of Trump and Bolsonaro) was not based on grossly mistaken opinions like his.

walshb · 05-10-2020 11:22PM

Speak Now wrote: »

Watching primetime on rte +1, there was an angle where they showed Boyd Barrett and Callaghan and it was like the Dennis Waterman sketch with his agent on Little Britain

Jim is a big man!

Covid 19 Part XXV-44,159 ROI (1,830 deaths) 21,898 NI (598 deaths) (13/10) Read OP

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