Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

FintanMcluskey · 03-10-2020 09:24PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

As with everywhere else in Europe Italy's spread continues to accelerate and it reports 2,844 new cases and 27 new deaths, highest number of new cases since April 28th.

Northern Italy suffered a dreadful toll in the first outbreak. The govt is to bring in compulsory mask wearing in public.

The fact Italy has europes oldest population means Covid will effect them the most.

ACitizenErased · 03-10-2020 09:25PM

I think it needs to be more clear that the cases we're seeing now are waaaaaay down on what we had in March/April. If you account for current positivity rate and adjust the April figures then it's likely we had ~5000 cases per day at some points in April.

igCorcaigh · 03-10-2020 09:25PM

The possible problem is how quickly it moves through the population.

We saw that back in April. But still about 90% of us are not immune to the virus.

FintanMcluskey · 03-10-2020 09:26PM

froog wrote: »

well we have a flu vaccine every year that works pretty well and with a high uptake among seniors. i wouldn't be too worried about the flu.

Well thats just totally irresponsible.

The flu is more dangerous to kids and really needs to be given more respect

Funsterdelux · 03-10-2020 09:26PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Throwing up foreign figures without context is not about discussion, pure scare mongering.

Can I please throw up foreign figures which are hopeful, without discussion?

odyssey06 · 03-10-2020 09:26PM

froog wrote: »

well we have a flu vaccine every year that works pretty well and with a high uptake among seniors. i wouldn't be too worried about the flu.

It's only been 50% effective on average over the last 10 years (due to mis-matched strains) and maybe be even less effective in over 65s (due to weaker immune response).

igCorcaigh · 03-10-2020 09:27PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I think it needs to be more clear that the cases we're seeing now are waaaaaay down on what we had in March/April. If you account for current positivity rate and adjust the April figures then it's likely we had ~5000 cases per day at some points in April.

Totally agree.

CruelSummer · 03-10-2020 09:27PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Isn't that what others are doing as well. want restrictions lifted and everything to go back to "normal" because they want to do stuff.

I don’t think so...I think people want to see businesses reopened, their jobs back, bills paid as mortgage breaks have ended, the state not heading for bankruptcy once again, years more austerity, cancer screening & treatments, elective surgeries...a plan.
And I don’t mean one with levels as to how they can get us into a lockdown. I mean how to reopen everything with social distancing etc through the winter months with strong messaging targeting at risk groups as to how to protect themselves from Covid.

Inquitus · 03-10-2020 09:28PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

It's only been 50% effective on average over the last 10 years (due to mis-matched strains) and maybe be even less effective in over 65s (due to weaker immune response).

Aye, they try and guess what strain to vaccinate again and they get it right and wrong.

Zebra3 · 03-10-2020 09:28PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

The fact Italy has europes oldest population means Covid will effect them the most.

Can't let context get in the way of scare mongering.

There are people out there who actually think this is like the American Flu of 1918.

manniot2 · 03-10-2020 09:29PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

I don’t think so...I think people want to see businesses reopened, their jobs back, bills paid as mortgage breaks have ended, the state not heading for bankruptcy once again, years more austerity, cancer screening & treatments, elective surgeries...a plan.
And I don’t mean one with levels as to how they can get us into a lockdown. I mean how to reopen everything with social distancing etc through the winter months with strong messaging targeting at risk groups as to how to protect themselves from Covid.

level 5 is where we are going. and nowhere else.

hmmm · 03-10-2020 09:30PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

There are people out there who actually think this is like the American Flu of 1918.

675,000 people died of the 1918 flu in the US, and that was largely let rip through the population.

So far Covid has killed 200,000 in the US, and that's with about 10% of the population estimated to have been infected so far.

spookwoman · 03-10-2020 09:31PM

CruelSummer wrote: »

I don’t think so...I think people want to see businesses reopened, their jobs back, bills paid as mortgage breaks have ended, the state not heading for bankruptcy once again, years more austerity, cancer screening & treatments, elective surgeries...a plan.
And I don’t mean one with levels as to how they can get us into a lockdown. I mean how to reopen everything with social distancing etc through the winter months with strong messaging targeting at risk groups as to how to protect themselves from Covid.

People cannot just lock themselves away, they do have to leave the house for different things. If the virus if more prevalent in the community then there is more chance of the "vulnerable" getting infected. Opening up the hospitals for people to get treatment does need to happen but again more in the community the more chance of people getting it.

froog · 03-10-2020 09:31PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Well thats just totally irresponsible.

The flu is more dangerous to kids and really needs to be given more respect

what's totally irresponsible?

03-10-2020 09:32PM

manniot2 wrote: »

level 5 is where we are going. and nowhere else.

I always wonder why people create multiple accounts to use at an unspecified date in the future. Odd behaviour.

03-10-2020 09:33PM

hmmm wrote: »

675,000 people died of the 1918 flu in the US, and that was largely let rip through the population.

So far Covid has killed 200,000 in the US, and that's with about 10% of the population estimated to have been infected so far.

Population 4x larger now, wouldn't want facts to get in the way though!

stephenjmcd · 03-10-2020 09:33PM

spookwoman wrote: »

Isn't that what others are doing as well. want restrictions lifted and everything to go back to "normal" because they want to do stuff.

No because the poster wants restrictions imposed so that he can go back to doing something at some point in the future that he can already do with precautions just chooses not to do, something that could be done outdoors, with masks, at a distance etc.

Big difference between that and not being able to do something due to government policy. One is a personal choice and the other is a forced restriction.

bb1234567 · 03-10-2020 09:34PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Can't let context get in the way of scare mongering.

There are people out there who actually think this is like the American Flu of 1918.

In the most affected countries it is comparable

Peru excess deaths over two years between 1918-1920 = 1.6% of population

Peru excess deaths in 6 months since April = 0.25% of the population
https://arbiterz.com/2020/09/covid-19-us-south-africa-peru-others-take-the-lead-in-excess-death-rate/

auspicious · 03-10-2020 09:34PM

Arghus wrote: »

I think it's time for a bit more frankness from those in power about where we are heading.

Of course you're right. But they better use analogies we can get our heads around.
https://m.independent.ie/videos/health-minister-compares-coronavirus-risks-to-trampolines-playing-sport-and-driving-39464662.html

odyssey06 · 03-10-2020 09:37PM

mcburns07 wrote: »

Population 4x larger now, wouldn't want facts to get in the way though!

And medical science how much more advanced... even just basic things like hand sanitisers being readily available.
Seems like a valid point of reference \ comparison for its impact.

John O.Groats · 03-10-2020 09:37PM

wadacrack wrote: »

I criticized Kermit a number of mths ago when cases were very low. I naively thought we would not let cases grow and would be able to control the Ro as seen in Asia. Quickly realized when the its "only clusters" talk that we suppressed the virus for nothing essentially. He has been proven right and is probably posting European case counts as essentially a warning. He is probably worried about this Christmas. I know I am.Virus unlikely to affect me but to see it inflict ill health on so many others will be upsetting. We need a proper , sophisticated plan on how to live with this. But it seems that we may to wait for rapid testing and or vaccine . Educated people about the virus needs to ramped up.

The penny is finally beginning to drop.

hmmm · 03-10-2020 09:39PM

mcburns07 wrote: »

Population 4x larger now, wouldn't want facts to get in the way though!

That's why I said only 10% of the population in the US have been exposed to Covid. You can do the maths.

pjohnson · 03-10-2020 09:42PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Well thats just totally irresponsible.

The flu is more dangerous to kids and really needs to be given more respect

As usual more back-to-front posting.

If you think something is irresponsible then its a damn sure sign its actually the responsible thing to do.

WoollyRedHat · 03-10-2020 09:46PM

Zebra3 wrote: »

Throwing up foreign figures without context is not about discussion, pure scare mongering.

What context are you looking for? For posters to give the countries population every time daily cases for that country are posted? People know France is a large country and the information is easily Google able. I don't see where there was scaremongering so think you're being a tad dramatic there.

03-10-2020 09:47PM

hmmm wrote: »

That's why I said only 10% of the population in the US have been exposed to Covid. You can do the maths.

Near on 7.5 million confirmed cases. So you reckon they've caught 1 in 5 cases if you think 10% (36 million) have had it so far?

FintanMcluskey · 03-10-2020 09:48PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

In the most affected countries it is comparable

Peru excess deaths over two years between 1918-1920 = 1.6% of population

Peru excess deaths in 6 months since April = 0.25% of the population
https://arbiterz.com/2020/09/covid-19-us-south-africa-peru-others-take-the-lead-in-excess-death-rate/

What was the average age of death in the 1918 to 1920 pandemic?

FintanMcluskey · 03-10-2020 09:49PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

What context are you looking for? For posters to give the countries population every time daily cases for that country are posted? People know France is a large country and the information is easily Google able. I don't see where there was scaremongering so think you're being a tad dramatic there.

Well then to follow your theory, we can also find case updates on google so there is little need to post them here with no context

WoollyRedHat · 03-10-2020 09:50PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Well then to follow your theory, we can also find case updates on google so there is little need to post them here with no context

Jesus what context would you like? Case figures are posted for island of Ireland every day in thread, should that be stopped?

ETA: I actually took the post in question to be positive news, because I looked at case numbers and deaths and deducted death rates were low relevant to number of cases reported and population.

It is interesting to have as a barometer of what you could expect to see with deaths as a percentage of cases in second wave.

FintanMcluskey · 03-10-2020 09:51PM

pjohnson wrote: »

If you think something is irresponsible then its a damn sure sign its actually the responsible thing to do.

You now want to infect kids with the flu?

FintanMcluskey · 03-10-2020 09:52PM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Jesus what context would you like? Case figures are posted for island of Ireland every day in thread, should that be stopped?

No just context is helpful.

Some are still comparing Covid to the Spanish flu.

Context is helpful

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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