Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

ginoginelli · 03-10-2020 07:09PM

NH2013 wrote: »

When it comes to getting buy in for restrictions, unfortunately this time around we've a much better picture overall than was had back in March/April, due to the much increased testing capacity since then, in March and April we rapidly went from one or two cases at the start of the month, to 879 in hospital and 141 in ICU in a matter of weeks, though it'd likely been brewing for a number of weeks before that unknown to us, and we were surrounded by images of mass graves and coffins in northern Italy, Madrid and later New York. It scared the f@ck out of most people and eveyone complied, no questions asked.

The spread now is also slowed down now as well as we know how to social distance, wear masks, reduce contacts etc, so overall it's growing slower and we're getting a more accurate picture of it developing, unlike March/April. However that now has the unintended effect of being like the frog slowly boiled in water.

The numbers are slowly creeping up, the hospitalisations are slowly creeping up, the ICU numbers are slowly creeping up, so many more simply don't care, the shock value is gone, it feels like it's getting worse, but nowhere near as bad as March/April, so there's no great pressure to do too much about it, until it gets to a point that the pain needed to get it back under control, the full lockdown, won't be accepted.

I feel this second wave will actually likely result in more deaths this time around as at least some level of apathy or just exhaustion has set in among almost all the population.

The only benefit this time around is that treatments have come along, not a cure all but there are some that will help. On top of that it's also only a matter of months as well until vaccinations can commence being rolled out, hopefully amongst the most vulnerable first and take most of the sting out of the deaths and hospitalisations.

I just cannot see the levels of compliance that were present in March and April returning this time around, unless it gets to the point we've hospitals swamped and coffins stacking up. Even the most strict of people have eased up a bit, and there is a cohort that have totally disengaged with the plan, rightly or wrongly.

Good post.

I suspect you may be right.

The Australia situation does give me some hope though. They are not too dissimilar from the Irish and have for the most part adhered to a long drawn out strict lockdown. A similar strategy here, enforced by the gardai with legislative powers, might be what it comes to in order to save lives.

Widdensushi · 03-10-2020 07:09PM

Juwwi wrote: »

I cant see how we get through the winter without the hospitals being over burdened the way the numbers are rising .

Same way they are overburdened every year

CiarraiManc · 03-10-2020 07:10PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's only a matter of time before hospitalisations pick up dramatically. The migration from healthy and young to fragile and older will be a real test.

Coupled with onset of winter illnesses there is going to be great strain on the health services.

There are very difficult months ahead.

10 people dead. It's the worst I can remember in a while. The open the pubs brigade will have a few harsh lessons to learn in the next few months

440Hertz · 03-10-2020 07:10PM

Vicxas wrote: »

You'd swear you were the capital city or something where 95% of the commerce is...

That's a bit of an overstatement - there are other significant urban areas on this island and they've had mixed results in comparison. Dublin's probably doing worse due to a mixture of issues notably more use of public transport and a lot of shared housing filter into it. It's also attracting things like those big protests today.

There's a lot of behavioural issues too and I think it's dangerous to just go with 'ah it's just because we're bigger'.

Donegal was a total mess for example on a per capita basis.

You'd expect Dublin and Cork to be in line with each other when you put a multiplier of 2.55 in for the population difference, but it's not the case, so there are other factors.

Also, Northern Ireland is WAY out of whack and that's not population based at all.

Once this thing gets into an area, it moves exponentially and that's the constant risk. A minor bit of difference in behaviour can suddenly result in a huge swing in case numbers. It's like it seems to get seeded and 'boom' it's everywhere.

Santy2015 · 03-10-2020 07:10PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

I hope Micheal Martin has the strength to do the right thing on Monday and impose a strict level 5 lockdown for 3 weeks. We need to get this house in order now, it cannot be allowed spiral out of control.

I would be stocking the cupboards high tomorrow as i sense they will act from midnight Monday.

Check your toilet roll supplies, do you have enough cans in the cupboard, do u have enough break and milk in the freezer?

Do u have enough Jameson in the cellar?

Very serious questions must be asked of one another tonight.

You must be on some session to be spewing that nonsense

Hurrache · 03-10-2020 07:11PM

theballz wrote: »

Put the whole country on level 3.

I’m from Dublin, sick of our numbers being blamed on people living here. Everyday we have visitors from every other county.

Like I said before, we need a new Pale wall, but without those feckless heathens outside the city this time.

spookwoman · 03-10-2020 07:11PM

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1312450611716059136?s=20

Santy2015 · 03-10-2020 07:11PM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

10 people dead. It's the worst I can remember in a while. The open the pubs brigade will have a few harsh lessons to learn in the next few months

Go and look at the statement by the DoH! 8 are historic. Give over the dramatics

fullstop · 03-10-2020 07:11PM

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Dublin - it's two weeks since the restrictions and yet not a sign of improvement.

Not remotely surprised after what I saw today. Gangs of 20 or 30 teenagers a rampaging around the place pissed out of their heads, absolutely hanging out of each other. Also passed at least 4 restaurants with people dining indoors on a fairly short walk.

SCOOP 64 · 03-10-2020 07:12PM

sterz wrote: »

But people have been going back to the offices as some employers are starting to relax a bit. Strange because people have been able to work remotely for six months so what's changed all of a sudden that requires them to return to the office?

Most of the people i know who work in offices are still not back anyway does level 3 have a big impact from 2?

polesheep · 03-10-2020 07:12PM

Juwwi wrote: »

I cant see how we get through the winter without the hospitals being over burdened the way the numbers are rising .

Do we ever?

CiarraiManc · 03-10-2020 07:12PM

ginoginelli wrote: »

Good post.

I suspect you may be right.

The Australia situation does give me some hope though. They are not too dissimilar from the Irish and have for the most part adhered to a long drawn out strict lockdown. A similar strategy here, enforced by the gardai with legislative powers, might be what it comes to in order to save lives.

Certainly wouldn't mind seeing some proper policing against the millions of scuts here anyway.

Stheno · 03-10-2020 07:12PM

sterz wrote: »

But people have been going back to the offices as some employers are starting to relax a bit. Strange because people have been able to work remotely for six months so what's changed all of a sudden that requires them to return to the office?

The week before the latest restrictions we were being encouraged to go into the office by our company

They cancelled that and its wfh

SEPT 23 1989 · 03-10-2020 07:12PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

I hope Micheal Martin has the strength to do the right thing on Monday and impose a strict level 5 lockdown for 3 weeks. We need to get this house in order now, it cannot be allowed spiral out of control.

I would be stocking the cupboards high tomorrow as i sense they will act from midnight Monday.

Check your toilet roll supplies, do you have enough cans in the cupboard, do u have enough break and milk in the freezer?

Do u have enough Jameson in the cellar?

Very serious questions must be asked of one another tonight.

If we were in the 2nd week of December they could do this

Close everything up on the 18th reopen 2nd week January

People would cope

Can't happen in the fist week of October

TonyMaloney · 03-10-2020 07:13PM

613 cases at a 4% growth rate gets us to 1000+ cases in 13 days

John O.Groats · 03-10-2020 07:14PM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

10 people dead. It's the worst I can remember in a while. The open the pubs brigade will have a few harsh lessons to learn in the next few months

I think the house party brigade will have even harsher lessons to learn even if many of them are too dumb to learn anything.

froog · 03-10-2020 07:15PM

is there not a fundamental problem with contact tracing? average time between infection and onset of symptoms is 5-6 days. close contacts are only considered from 48 hours before onset of symptoms. or is the thinking that you are most likely not infectious for the first few days?

Coolfresian · 03-10-2020 07:15PM

Ficheall wrote: »

Some people seem keen to almost write off historic deaths - they're still deaths, and next month's historic deaths will be this week's deaths that we just don't know about. If anything, the way things are going, there are likely more than 10 that we'll be notified of in the future as historic.

It's like thinking using your credit card isn't really spending money because it hasn't come out of your bank account yet.

It's not ideal the way it's being reported, for sure, but they're not any less dead because they're historic.

Absolutely, why are people so keen to downplay this? They are deaths caused by covid, that's the bottom line!
Their could be way more people dead from it at the moment and we don't know about it. It's this downplaying everything at all cost that's causing complacency and leading us on the wrong trajectory.

03-10-2020 07:16PM

The_Brood wrote: »

They know the schools are causing this, everyone can clearly see no masks, no social distancing, nothing whatsoever at schools - but they claim it's all house parties? What, Ireland is suddenly fiesta nation everyone and anyone having house parties? Give me a break. It's the schools.

Cases in 5 to 14 year olds are steady, but the are sky rocketing in 15 to 24 year olds. What do 15 to 24 year olds do that 5 to 14 year olds don’t?

rubbledoubledo · 03-10-2020 07:16PM

I think myself the first lockdown was a novelty for people. Every one got on board. We had great weather for it and a lot of people’s minds were occupied doing outdoor stuff. But like everything in life things ware off after awhile. People are just gone back to doing what they did before. I do not drink but my friend started going to his local again last week. I asked him what about the rules there he said not great I’m afraid. I can only see it going up. We just have to live with it for now

SEPT 23 1989 · 03-10-2020 07:16PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

613 cases at a 4% growth rate gets us to 1000+ cases in 13 days

Doubles every two weeks is what they said would happen

hmmm · 03-10-2020 07:17PM

spookwoman wrote: »

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1312450611716059136?s=20

Mad. Some form of gaslighting I have to assume, deliberately having multiple different narratives so no-one believes the media.

eagle eye · 03-10-2020 07:17PM

If the government don't do something very soon you'll end up with groups organising to protect their own areas.

It's getting that serious now. There's a huge divide developing.

Goldrickssan · 03-10-2020 07:17PM

Coolfresian wrote: »

Absolutely, why are people so keen to downplay this? They are deaths caused by covid, that's the bottom line!
Their could be way more people dead from it at the moment and we don't know about it. It's this downplaying everything at all cost that's causing complacency and leading us on the wrong trajectory.

They're not all deaths caused by covid though

BringBackMick · 03-10-2020 07:18PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

You must be on some session to be spewing that nonsense

It is about facing up to the facts now and not prolonging the drawn out process until we eventually impose Level 5 which will happen at some point in the next few months.

Better do it now so we can face it head on and get our house in order.

If consuming 6 cans of Zywiec while watching the mighty Leeds battle Man City is a session, then you are correct.

pjohnson · 03-10-2020 07:19PM

Coolfresian wrote: »

Absolutely, why are people so keen to downplay this? They are deaths caused by covid, that's the bottom line!
Their could be way more people dead from it at the moment and we don't know about it. It's this downplaying everything at all cost that's causing complacency and leading us on the wrong trajectory.

A cohort have always downplayed this in order to get pubs open.

440Hertz · 03-10-2020 07:19PM

I've been wondering if something like this might work until we have a vaccine:

6 weeks of level 1 or 2 and business as usual.
2 weeks of level 5 to keep putting in a fire break.

Scrap the school summer holidays or seriously shorten them for this year only and just keep repeating that pattern of 6 weeks on and 2 weeks off or make it 8 weeks on and 3 weeks of or something, I don't know what would actually work.

I just think it would make life a hell of a lot easier to navigate and we are simply not going to be out of this until there's a vaccine or treatment and I don't see how we can keep optimistically assuming that it's going to magically go away. It won't.

Nobody wants to make a move like that because the 'markets' or 'sentiment' will probably slam the firsts mover, but we need to look seriously at a way of living with this.

We can't just keep going around with this sense of panic and stress and unpredictability.

I could deal with a couple of weeks of lock down here and there if I could plan for it. What I can't deal with is this chaotic notion that there's one constantly around the corner if the numbers go crazy.

If social distancing is the only serious tool we have right now, we need to use it more sensibly than we are doing at present and to try and get maximum bang for buck with minimum impact and that means predictability.

Nobody seems to want to face the fact that there's unlikely to be a vaccine for this anytime soon. It could well be late 2021 or even well into 2022.

John O.Groats · 03-10-2020 07:19PM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

Certainly wouldn't mind seeing some proper policing against the millions of scuts here anyway.

Absolutely. The time has come to drop the kid gloves approach and introduce strictly enforced regulations with harsh penalties for those who ignore the restrictions measures.

CiarraiManc · 03-10-2020 07:19PM

BringBackMick wrote: »

It is about facing up to the facts now and not prolonging the drawn out process until we eventually impose Level 5 which will happen at some point in the next few months.

Better do it now so we can face it head on and get our house in order.

If consuming 6 cans of Zywiec while watching the mighty Leeds battle Man City is a session, then you are correct.

I agree full lockdown into the new year. If people don't learn to behave after that then I give up.

Always_Running · 03-10-2020 07:20PM

theballz wrote: »

Put the whole country on level 3.

I’m from Dublin, sick of our numbers being blamed on people living here. Everyday we have visitors from every other county.

Again I'd ask why put the many counties with low or decreasing case numbers the last 2 weeks into level 3?

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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