Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

polesheep · 02-10-2020 06:31PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Is it a better system than Mexico for example who 6 months later adds 14,000 deaths on one day? YOu really think that's better? It means that back in April , May when whatever 600/700 were dying of COVID dailyin Mexico in reality it was like 800 or so. That's insanely poor communication on the part of the government to the public and seriously underestimated the scale of the pandemic occurring at that time.

Given the relatively small amount of denotifications, clearly we have well qualified and intelligent coroners who usually make quite wise judgements on whether the death should be considered suspected covid or not. It can take months for proper confirmation, and it's important to have this information real time on how many people are dying currently in an active outbreak. If many many cases were being denotified then maybe I'd agree with you, as clearly that would mean our inaccurate death registry was painting a very false and misleading picture of the level of deaths in the midst of the outbreak, but it's not the case. So there's really nto a big issue with the current method of COVID death classification in Ireland

And it's therefore important that it be accurate. If they can't be 100% accurate then they should withhold it.

TexasTornado · 02-10-2020 06:32PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I'm usually fairly positive, but I see no end to this for a long time. The numbers in the North are chilling, and we are not doing great here either especially in Dublin.

I can't understand how other countries are getting along fine though, say China Korea Taiwan for example and some other European countries with the exception of Spain and France maybe. Baffled, just like everyone else I suspect. What are they doing right that we are doing wrong?

Complaint populations. In Ireland if someone in autority advises you do something for your own good or others a lot of people will say "fcuk that know all, i'll do as i please and show em"

Look at this very site as an example. The relaxation of restrictions thread is full of them.

bb1234567 · 02-10-2020 06:33PM

polesheep wrote: »

And it's therefore important that it be accurate. If they can't be 100% accurate then they should withhold it.

Ok that;s just the same point again. As I said it's not possible to be 100% accurate at the time when the information is needed, but the information is still needed, so this is the best we are going to get. We are not far off 100% anyway. Mountain out of a molehill

As I said Mexico is an example of a place that waited for better accuracy, it was not to the benefit of anybody

SortingYouOut · 02-10-2020 06:33PM

Can't see Cork staying on 2 much longer, they're looking just like Dublin not too long ago. Clusters impact community transmission, we already know they can't be contained because if they could be, I'd be enjoying a pint tonight.

screamer · 02-10-2020 06:34PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I'm usually fairly positive, but I see no end to this for a long time. The numbers in the North are chilling, and we are not doing great here either especially in Dublin.

I can't understand how other countries are getting along fine though, say China Korea Taiwan for example and some other European countries with the exception of Spain and France maybe. Baffled, just like everyone else I suspect. What are they doing right that we are doing wrong?

I think we are far unhealthier than your average European, and sorry to say it, but we think we know better and have little respect for rules. It’s cultural and behavioural issues that are the difference.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 06:34PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Ok that;s just the same point again. As I said it's not possible to be 100% accurate at the time when the information is needed, but the information is still needed, so this is the best we are going to get. We are not far off 100% anyway. Mountain out of a molehill

Inaccurate information is never needed. Unless you have a motive for giving it.

bb1234567 · 02-10-2020 06:39PM

polesheep wrote: »

Inaccurate information is never needed. Unless you have a motive for giving it.

:rolleyes:

Why don't they just never denotify then if they are so evil

Add in a few extra 'suspected' deaths too everyday to make us extra sacred, why not make half of all daily deaths in Ireland suspected covid deaths, that'' be quite the body count to terrify us into conforming to their will

There's some people with agendas around alright, don't think it's the government though..

douglashyde · 02-10-2020 06:39PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

That's easier said than put into practical measures ... how do you focus on them in isolation to the rest of the community. They don't exist in a sterile bubble, even those in nursing homes. There are staff, deliveries, medical care, other needs, family visits etc
You have vulnerable people living with people of different generations at home.
If you look at all the people who are in "at risk" group for this virus it is hundreds of thousands of people. Extend that bubble to the people listed above.

I hear you and understand the challenges but there needs to be a mix of practical thinking and creative solutions.

Pareto's principle the $%# out of the issue:
Take the money that's currently been spread widely to address CV19 and focus it on protecting the extremely high risk (cardiovascular disease, cancer, COPD mixed w/ old age). Let's all continue to wear masks and social distance. Let's invest in our healthcare & hire more nurses.

I have no doubt that if we're measuring this purely on case numbers alone, then a full lock down is the way to go. But imo a blanket or even semi lock down is not the right solution and would side with those scientists and doctors who advocate a targeted approach.

trixi001 · 02-10-2020 06:40PM

Just a quick one on the NI figures today

Normally there is around 3000 - 4000 tested. Today it is over 6000 people tested (Although that is 15% positive test rate) - I suspect a lot of them could be a backlog in results

Robin Swann said yesterday that NI was testing 350 people per 100,000 daily, compared with about 250 in the south, and 325 in England - so the rates will appear higher.

The schools being back has to be the main factor...

GooglePlus · 02-10-2020 06:40PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

300 odd seeming normal now, 400-500 a day will be normal in a few weeks and so on.

We won't see cases in the 100s again until we're at the far side of this second curve or if there's some sort of anomaly (as the statisticians say in the States).

Only 3 days ago. I was wrong about the speed this is going anyway, i'd say we'll have 1000 cases per day in a month's time.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 06:42PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

:rolleyes:

Why don't they just never denotify then if they are so evil

The denotification is more or less irrelevant as it has nothing like the impact the notification had.

ACitizenErased · 02-10-2020 06:43PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Only 3 days ago. I was wrong about the speed this is going anyway, i'd say we'll have 1000 cases per day in a month's time.

There'll be restrictions in place waaaaaaay before we even remotely hit 1000.

TonyMaloney · 02-10-2020 06:45PM

douglashyde wrote: »

I hear you and understand the challenges but there needs to be a mix of practical thinking and creative solutions.

Pareto's principle the $%# out of the issue:
Take the money that's currently been spread widely to address CV19 and focus it on protecting the extremely high risk (cardiovascular disease, cancer, COPD mixed w/ old age). Let's all continue to wear masks and social distance. Let's invest in our healthcare & hire more nurses.

I have no doubt that if we're measuring this purely on case numbers alone, then a full lock down is the way to go. But imo a blanket or even semi lock down is not the right solution and would side with those scientists and doctors who advocate a targeted approach.

What are we going to do, build an island for the vulnerable?

Throwing money at a problem is not a solution. We didn't have loads of nursing home deaths because we didn't have a budget for saving them.
Once it's prevalent in a community it will get to the most vulnerable too, because it's the non vulnerable that take care of them.

Gael23 · 02-10-2020 06:46PM

What are hospital figures today?

GooglePlus · 02-10-2020 06:46PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There'll be restrictions in place waaaaaaay before we even remotely hit 1000.

Aye there will but they'll do absolutely nothing unless they're adhered to and strict enough.

You have to remember that 1000 cases probably only equates to 300-400 back in March/April, so not the big scary number it's made out to be.

1000 cases a day again is inevitable.

Tenzor07 · 02-10-2020 06:46PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There'll be restrictions in place waaaaaaay before we even remotely hit 1000.

The current restrictions seem to be working so well, why would we need more...

ACitizenErased · 02-10-2020 06:47PM

Gael23 wrote: »

What are hospital figures today?

So far based on dashboard ICU down by 1 to 19 and overall up by 3 to 117.

TonyMaloney · 02-10-2020 06:47PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There'll be restrictions in place waaaaaaay before we even remotely hit 1000.

There are restrictions in place, and we're on course to hit 1000+ within about 3 weeks

ACitizenErased · 02-10-2020 06:49PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

There are restrictions in place, and we're on course to hit 1000+ within about 3 weeks

There's restrictions in 2 counties

TonyMaloney · 02-10-2020 06:50PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's restrictions in 2 counties

How do you spend so much time here and still come out with stuff like this?

GooglePlus · 02-10-2020 06:51PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

There's restrictions in 2 counties

One of them being the main driver for our national number, so you've proven his point.

eagle eye · 02-10-2020 06:58PM

So over 1200 school kids have tested positive for Coronavirus.

488 in the 5-12 age bracket and 746 in the 13-19 age group in tests carried out between the 30th August and 27th September.

And the numbers rose every week during that period.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1002/1168953-testing-in-schools/

ACitizenErased · 02-10-2020 06:59PM

eagle eye wrote: »

So over 1200 school kids have tested positive for Coronavirus.

488 in the 5-12 age bracket and 746 in the 13-19 age group in tests carried out between the 30th August and 27th September.

And the numbers rose every week during that period.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/1002/1168953-testing-in-schools/

Which signifies the continued growth in household clusters... as spoken about by the CMO.
Your obsession with schools is absurd.

eagle eye · 02-10-2020 07:00PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Which signifies the continued growth in household clusters... as spoken about by the CMO.
Your obsession with schools is absurd.

You obviously don't have kids so it's no surprise you don't understand.

ACitizenErased · 02-10-2020 07:02PM

eagle eye wrote: »

You obviously don't have kids so it's no surprise you don't understand.

Thankfully you seem to be in the minority.

Santy2015 · 02-10-2020 07:03PM

Good thread by Nolan but he is doing what he says he isn’t doing and is trying to scare people.
64 of our 114 hospital admissions from last night are in Dublin.
If Dublin’s figures drop and the rest of the country hopefully stays stable, then we should be well able to carry the amount of cases currently being recorded.
https://twitter.com/president_mu/status/1312083915667054592?s=21

ACitizenErased · 02-10-2020 07:05PM

I think they're waiting till next week to see if the whole level 3 shabang actually works and then they'll move Cork to level 3. Every other county seems relatively stable outside of the top 3.

froog · 02-10-2020 07:06PM

he's saying it's (cases and hospitalizations) an exponential growth since july.

i don't see that at all, rising yes, exponential no.

majcos · 02-10-2020 07:07PM

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Seems to make sense.

In terms of cases over last couple of months, is there any connection between cases numbers and hospitalisations? I mean if 100 cases 5 in hospital I in ICU type thing, are we getting 10 in hospital 2 in ICU when we have 200 cases? (Made up figures not saying reflecting reality)

Up to midnight 29/09/2020 , there have been a total of 36155 Covid cases diagnosed in Ireland. 10% hospitalised, 4.28% have died and 1.31% have been admitted to ICU.

If just look at last two weeks from 17/09/2020 to 30/09/2020, the percentages are very different. Percentage hospitalised is 2.94%, with 0.24% of all cases being admitted to ICU and 0.13 percent dying.

This percentages look very small but in comparison to influenza, the case numbers are very significantly higher. Community testing for influenza is not so common so cannot compare overall case numbers but testing for influenza is performed for any suspected case admitted to hospital. There were 4554 people hospitalised with influenza in 2019/2020 season. 154 were admitted to ICU and 110 deaths. In comparison, 3617 people have been admitted to hospital with Covid, 473 people have been admitted to ICU as of 29/9 with 1549 deaths of confirmed cases.

In initial phase milder and asymptomatic cases were not diagnosed so this makes the outcomes look worse. As more asymptomatic and mild cases are diagnosed, that dilutes the hospitalisation and death rates.

There is a possibility that percentage hospitalised and death rates will increase again as Covid-19 doesn’t kill immediately. Typically there are a few days after initial symptoms before needing to be admitted, a few days admitted before further deterioration or needing ICU, and if admitted to ICU a relatively long period compared to other respiratory illnesses before getting better or dying.

eagle eye · 02-10-2020 07:07PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

Thankfully you seem to be in the minority.

What does that mean?

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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