Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

JDD wrote: »

That's true.

But even if you do concentrate on hospitalisations and the ICU, both of those have quadrupled in a month.

Which, if we continue on the same trajectory, will mean we will have approximately 500 in hospital with approximately 100 of those in the ICU.

Can our hospitals cope with that? Probably. Just. Can they cope with it if there's the usual flu outbreak? No. Even hoping that the flu is a lot less prevalent this year, we'll have very little wiggle room left in capacity - certainly since we have reopened portions of the health system that were closed during the first wave.

That's why I think we'll be on Level 4 (or higher) in the first or second week of November.

500 in hospital wouldn't be that big of an issue. Remember the City West facility. It was barely used even when we had far higher numbers.

100 in ICU, there's no reason for that to happen for a while if ever. ICU ventilation isn't even considered a good approach any more and in some cases leads to adverse results. There's also new treatments which prevent more people reaching ICU, which if the HSE haven't purchased raises serious questions.

If we do unfortunately reach that number, the HSE said they have significant surge ICU capacity numbering several hundred beds. And if they haven't planned for it you'd wonder why not. Its important to living with covid.

polesheep wrote: »

Betcha six deaths denotified won't have the same effect as six deaths announced.

Mentioned on the six one news.

Harry Palmr wrote: »

You'll be pleased to know 6.1 news just said with Covid 19 not of.

This needs to be emphasized. They need to break down the numbers into those who are suspected to have died of covid and those with covid.

tobefrank321 wrote: »

500 in hospital wouldn't be that big of an issue. Remember the City West facility. It was barely used even when we had far higher numbers.

I don't know about rarely used, it was over 100 for a while.

Are we going to have a daily segment on people who have rare reactions with known viruses from now on on the 6.1 so?

Blondini wrote: »

No, just took 10% of our population as a rough guide...

Oh right, I doubt it's nearly that high here.. it's probably more like 15% in developing countries..5% in developed countries due to lower population density, and global average of 10%, rather than 10% across the board.

normanoffside wrote: »

What's the point in announcing a death and simultaneously denotifying 6?

None of the headlines mention the denotfications.

Well of course theres a point in mentioning the death seeing as they probably died recently in this new outbreak. It's not just the total deaths that matter. But yeh they should mention the denotifications too obviously

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Because its good news.

Good news stories rarely make the headlines. They are usually half way down the page.

RTE website is the worst for this.

It's not good news that they previously falsely declared 6 deaths were covid related. It's incompetent at best and scare mongering at worst.

They have no problem waiting 3 months to announce historic deaths, surely they could wait a few days or weeks to verify new ones?

Hurrache wrote: »

If you don't want to see the reality of the disease for some people, record it and fast forward pass the segments.

Are we going to have a segment on each of the other 750M+ people who have had the disease without mysterious long-term symptoms?

Just because if we spend three minutes on each of them, and I fast forward through them at 4x normal speed, it's going to take me over a thousand years.

6 deaths denotified is quite the figure

polesheep wrote: »

Denotifications shouldn't be necessary. They should only announce confirmed Covid deaths.

Is it a better system than Mexico for example who 6 months later adds 14,000 deaths on one day? YOu really think that's better? It means that back in April , May when whatever 600/700 were dying of COVID dailyin Mexico in reality it was like 800 or so. That's insanely poor communication on the part of the government to the public and officially published statistics were seriously underestimating the scale of the pandemic occurring at that time.

Given the relatively small amount of denotifications, clearly we have well qualified and intelligent coroners who usually make quite wise judgements on whether the death should be considered suspected covid or not. It can take months for proper confirmation, and it's important to have this information real time on how many people are dying currently in an active outbreak. If many many cases were being denotified then maybe I'd agree with you, as clearly that would mean our inaccurate death registry was painting a very false and misleading picture of the level of deaths in the midst of the outbreak, but it's not the case. So there's really nto a big issue with the current method of COVID death classification in Ireland

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Load of countries in the EU going similar too.

Germany for example.

Speaking of which, here's the ECDC weekly surveillance summary.

https://covid19-country-overviews.ecdc.europa.eu/