Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

hynesie08 · 02-10-2020 05:21PM

Blondini wrote: »

So nearly 500,000 cases in Ireland!

Mad if true.

Hasn't it always been the theory that we were lucky if we were catching 10% of cases pre August??

petes · 02-10-2020 05:24PM

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

I felt completely fine all Summer.

Most likely had it

Sure you did

eagle eye · 02-10-2020 05:25PM

tobefrank321 wrote:

Varadkar's statement that we shouldn't be worried about new case numbers and only about more important metrics like ICU admissions and deaths is the first bit of sense spoken by anyone in government since this all began.

It's not really. The more cases we get the more likely that hospital and ICU numbers increase.

Atlantic Dawn · 02-10-2020 05:25PM

I feel a 500 plus coming in today.

wadacrack · 02-10-2020 05:25PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Varadkar's statement that we shouldn't be worried about new case numbers and only about more important metrics like ICU admissions and deaths is the first bit of sense spoken by anyone in government since this all began.

They are growing which is why people are concerned. Could be some early signs of the growth slowing in the last few days

CIARAN_BOYLE · 02-10-2020 05:27PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Varadkar's statement that we shouldn't be worried about new case numbers and only about more important metrics like ICU admissions and deaths is the first bit of sense spoken by anyone in government since this all began.

Follow those metrics if you want. Most of us have considered it important for a long time.

They are rising too.

Case numbers (if accurate and comparable) probably have less of a lag though.

If Varadker considers the death numbers important he needs to get legislation through the Dail forcing hospitals and doctors to produce death certs and report them within a week of death.

JDD · 02-10-2020 05:28PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Varadkar's statement that we shouldn't be worried about new case numbers and only about more important metrics like ICU admissions and deaths is the first bit of sense spoken by anyone in government since this all began.

That's true.

But even if you do concentrate on hospitalisations and the ICU, both of those have quadrupled in a month.

Which, if we continue on the same trajectory, will mean we will have approximately 500 in hospital with approximately 100 of those in the ICU.

Can our hospitals cope with that? Probably. Just. Can they cope with it if there's the usual flu outbreak? No. Even hoping that the flu is a lot less prevalent this year, we'll have very little wiggle room left in capacity - certainly since we have reopened portions of the health system that were closed during the first wave.

That's why I think we'll be on Level 4 (or higher) in the first or second week of November.

Eod100 · 02-10-2020 05:28PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Varadkar's statement that we shouldn't be worried about new case numbers and only about more important metrics like ICU admissions and deaths is the first bit of sense spoken by anyone in government since this all began.

NPHET look at all those details. Varadkar knows this.

CalamariFritti · 02-10-2020 05:30PM

landofthetree wrote: »

An estimated 750 million, or 10 per cent of the world’s population, have been infected by Covid-19, World Health Organisation (WHO) official Dr Mike Ryan has said.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/covid-19-world-in-for-a-hell-of-a-ride-in-coming-months-dr-mike-ryan-says-1.4370626%3fmode=amp

Which would put IFR at 0.13%. 4 out of 3,000.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 05:31PM

Deleted User wrote: »

As a point of information, Influenza is consistently disabling to all and sundry when it hits you, I genuinely don't believe you understand how the Influenza A/B viruses affect a person versus most other common contagious respiratory infections. It strikes suddenly and floors you. If it doesn't have that sort of onset it's improbable that it is actually an influenza virus. Even the most healthy will be physically floored by the shaking chills, bone pain, exhaustion, extreme dizziness, fever for at least several days. Most recover completely within a couple of weeks, but of course it can kill the vulnerable and elderly. It will inevitably cause you to be unable to work for at least some days.

Not accurate information I'm afraid. The flu can cause mild symptoms or even none. It's one of the reasons for its sometimes rapid spread.

A link from the NHS: https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

02-10-2020 05:32PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Which would put IFR at 0.13%. 4 out of 3,000.

I'd imagine they reckon the actual deaths are also much higher than reported too

JDD · 02-10-2020 05:32PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Which would put IFR at 0.13%. 4 out of 3,000.

A low IFR alright. But a bloody infectious disease if 750m have caught it in six months. I don't think it really matters if the IFR is low - if enough people get it you are going to have a good chunk of deaths.

And anyway, callous as it may seem, deaths aren't really the problem here. Hospitalisations are the problem.

02-10-2020 05:33PM

I can't see Dublin coming out of this stage of lockdown until they see a consistent decrease in 14 day rolling incidence. More likely to go up than down IMO.

JDD · 02-10-2020 05:34PM

polesheep wrote: »

Not accurate information I'm afraid. The flu can cause mild symptoms or even none. It's one of the reasons for its sometimes rapid spread.

A link from the NHS: https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

I would have thought this too. I always thought you could catch a mild dose of the flu but it would never be classed as "flu", just a bad cold. We don't test for flu unless you are hospitalised, right?

polesheep · 02-10-2020 05:35PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Varadkar's statement that we shouldn't be worried about new case numbers and only about more important metrics like ICU admissions and deaths is the first bit of sense spoken by anyone in government since this all began.

Does it signal a change in thinking? I hope so.

SEPT 23 1989 · 02-10-2020 05:36PM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I feel a 500 plus coming in today.

700

billybonkers · 02-10-2020 05:37PM

Wtf is going in up north?? 934 cases today

polesheep · 02-10-2020 05:38PM

JDD wrote: »

I would have thought this too. I always thought you could catch a mild dose of the flu but it would never be classed as "flu", just a bad cold. We don't test for flu unless you are hospitalised, right?

I couldn't tell you JDD, but you certainly can catch the flu and only have mild symptoms.

JJayoo · 02-10-2020 05:38PM

billybonkers wrote: »

Wtf is going in up north?? 934 cases today

Assuming most are from back dated tests

JP Liz V1 · 02-10-2020 05:39PM

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Varadkar's statement that we shouldn't be worried about new case numbers and only about more important metrics like ICU admissions and deaths is the first bit of sense spoken by anyone in government since this all began.

Leo backtracking now a bit on NPHET

JDD · 02-10-2020 05:40PM

For those counting, how much of a backlog do we have? I know that we had 400ish positive swabs today - if we counted in all of the backlog, what's the top number we could be at tonight?

Thierry12 · 02-10-2020 05:41PM

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

700

Nah :pac:

We won't break 500 a while

Think 3's again today

kingshankly · 02-10-2020 05:41PM

billybonkers wrote: »

Wtf is going in up north?? 934 cases today

South armagh gaa club winning a championship after celebrating well excess of 100 cases followed 🙈🙈

Benimar · 02-10-2020 05:42PM

JDD wrote: »

For those counting, how much of a backlog do we have? I know that we had 400ish positive swabs today - if we counted in all of the backlog, what's the top number we could be at tonight?

Ballpark we could have 250 of a backlog. I don’t think it is that high, but could certainly see a figure of 500+ today.

froog · 02-10-2020 05:43PM

question on testing; if you had zero other contacts except one positive person, and then tested negative, are you out of the woods regardless of the time between exposure and test or is there a lag period where you could be positive but there's not enough virus to test positive?

Jim_Hodge · 02-10-2020 05:44PM

froog wrote: »

question on testing; if you had zero other contacts except one positive person, and then tested negative, are you out of the woods regardless of the time between exposure and test or is there a lag period where you could be positive but there's not enough virus to test positive?

There is a time frame. Hence why many have day 0 and day 7 tests.

CIARAN_BOYLE · 02-10-2020 05:44PM

froog wrote: »

question on testing; if you had zero other contacts except one positive person, and then tested negative, are you out of the woods regardless of the time between exposure and test or is there a lag period where you could be positive but there's not enough virus to test positive?

Yes. There is.

PokeHerKing · 02-10-2020 05:45PM

polesheep wrote: »

Does it signal a change in thinking? I hope so.

Yeah in Leo's, he thinks he's the opposition now.

Oranage2 · 02-10-2020 05:46PM

polesheep wrote: »

Does it signal a change in thinking? I hope so.

Leo is just playing the political game, when it's election time he'll have it on record saying he wanted less restriction but big bad MM and NPHET wanted to keep people caged in isolation.

02-10-2020 05:46PM

polesheep wrote: »

Not accurate information I'm afraid. The flu can cause mild symptoms or even none. It's one of the reasons for its sometimes rapid spread.

A link from the NHS: https://www.nhs.uk/news/medical-practice/three-quarters-of-people-with-flu-have-no-symptoms/

It spreads presymptomatically, like Covid. There's no such thing as experiencing a "touch of flu", it's most commonly diagnosed as a community illness by its symptomatology. It is *nothing* like a common cold as most people, who have rarely actually had a dose of it, seem to imagine. Too often have I heard people declare nonsense such as "I had the flu last month, now I have it again, last year I got it four times". I'm sure if enough were actually tested there is indeed sub clinical illness that never progresses, but if you do get symptoms, you get well and truly whacked. No doctor will clinically diagnose a common viral bronchitis as a flu if the patient remains functioning throughout.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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