Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

Eod100 · 02-10-2020 02:51PM

TexasTornado wrote: »

That's really hard to watch. Fu ck this virus and anyone underplaying it.

I dont think people get that there is no way to predict whether someone will be asymptomatic, mild symptoms, severe ones or need to be hospitalized and/or go to ICU. It's an old person's disease is the new it's the flu

stephenjmcd · 02-10-2020 02:53PM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

9 people in addition to normal ICU numbers. THere are 95 ICU beds in NI. In a short term situation, this could be doubled to 190 (but this is only to deal with short term events/ terrorists disasters as the bottle neck is trained staff and we aren't machines. You can deal with increased need over a short term period (ie take the manchester bombings).

At the moment, they have 10% extra demand for their ICU beds compared to non-covid times.

Yes 9 in ICU with covid. Just viewed their dashboard 31 beds available.

As my point said if they've a low number of beds to start with then that's an issue. 95 ICU beds for NI is woeful, ours isn't much better for population.

Sorry when your say we aren't machines are you a medical professional in ICU ? Genuine question btw

blowitupref · 02-10-2020 02:53PM

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1312016064176435202?s=19

Crazy

More than double the previous record of 424 new cases set earlier this week in NI. 6,038 individuals tested so roughly one in six tested positive. Easy to see why border counties Monaghan and Donegal are struggling to keep case numbers down low.

Larbre34 · 02-10-2020 02:53PM

GeorgeBailey wrote: »

Well you're doing the mathS wrong anyway.

No thats right, 934 in NI is the equivalent to 2,600 in the Republic, by population.

Looks like the public health officials warning of potentially 5,000 per day by the end of October, if social behaviour wasn't modified, weren't off beam in the slightest. In fact, they may have undershot.

ACitizenErased · 02-10-2020 02:54PM

That's an insane number for the north. Luckily we don't have positivity rates anything like that.

02-10-2020 02:55PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yes 9 in ICU with covid.

As my point said if they've a low number of beds to start with then that's an issue. 95 ICU beds for NI is woeful, ours isn't much better for population.

Sorry when your say we aren't machines are you a medical professional in ICU ? Genuine question btw

In a previous role, I worked in ICU. I don't work within ICU at the moment although I consult for some of my cohort of patients that end up there. I've a pharmacist background by the way in case the word consult suggests I'm a doctor.

JP Liz V1 · 02-10-2020 02:57PM

South Kerry GAA chiefs have cancelled Sunday's divisional senior football championship following 'instruction from the HSE
Champions Dromid Pearses were to face St Mary’s Waterville but board officials tweeted on Thursday night that the game has been called off due to a 'Covid issue' in one of the competing squads.

From The Examiner

Denny61 · 02-10-2020 02:59PM

Its getting very serious now .for all those people that were complacent ..look what's happening now !!!.those 1000 cases now..how many of them have under lying conditions and could be seriously affected for months or longer .

Benimar · 02-10-2020 02:59PM

458 positive swabs on 12,673 tests - positivity rate 3.61%

igCorcaigh · 02-10-2020 03:00PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's an insane number for the north. Luckily we don't have positivity rates anything like that.

For sure.

Is their testing system under strain? Could that account for the big jump in cases and positivity rate?

bilston · 02-10-2020 03:01PM

The numbers for NI are incredibly high...in fact to then point that I'd almost question whether there has been a typo somewhere. There were less than 300 cases yesterday. Something seems off about this.

JDD · 02-10-2020 03:02PM

Deleted User wrote: »

9 people in addition to normal ICU numbers. THere are 95 ICU beds in NI. In a short term situation, this could be doubled to 190 (but this is only to deal with short term events/ terrorists disasters as the bottle neck is trained staff and we aren't machines. You can deal with increased need over a short term period (ie take the manchester bombings).

At the moment, they have 10% extra demand for their ICU beds compared to non-covid times.

But.

They have a huge number of positive cases today. And yes, case numbers should not be a cause for alarm on their own. But if we had a case number of 2,300 positives cases today, it would raise concern, even if a large portion were asymptomatic.

In addition, if they have a 15% positivity rate, that means they are not doing half enough testing. Our positivity rate is 3%. At a conservative guess, there must be four times as many positive cases in NI than positive tests.

So that would mean there is in fact 3,600 infections in NI today - the Republic equivalent of 9,000 infected. In one day.

i don't care if they are only using 10 ICU beds out of 95. Even if lots of those 3,600 are asymptomatic, and only 1% of infections end up in the ICU, that will be 36 admissions. In one day. In two weeks time, they'll be well over their capacity.

NIMAN · 02-10-2020 03:03PM

Raphael Damaged Timer wrote: »

Spoke to 2 healthcare workers lately who are optimistic with flu season approaching. they were saying behaviour has changed 10 fold since covid so we could see a lot less cases of flu ending up in hospital? what do you think of this?

Probably correct.

Sure how many of us washed our hands and sneezed into our elbows before covid? Next to none id say.

People doing this will cut down the flu numbers dramatically.

But it might not fit the media narrative.

fritzelly · 02-10-2020 03:03PM

Is NI still only testing symptomatic people?

02-10-2020 03:03PM

Raphael Damaged Timer wrote: »

Spoke to 2 healthcare workers lately who are optimistic with flu season approaching. they were saying behaviour has changed 10 fold since covid so we could see a lot less cases of flu ending up in hospital? what do you think of this?

I think if people aren't socialising/ limiting their contact with others. It will hopefully lead to decreased episodes of the flu. It will be still there. A lot depends on how effective this years flu vaccine is. There is huge variability in it year to year. Also, it would be great if everybody eligible took the flu vaccine. I take it every year but I'm in at risk group (health care worker).

igCorcaigh · 02-10-2020 03:04PM

bilston wrote: »

The numbers for NI are incredibly high...in fact to then point that I'd almost question whether there has been a typo somewhere. There were less than 300 cases yesterday. Something seems off about this.

Oh really! That does seem wrong, I wonder was there some backlog or delay in the testing.

kingshankly · 02-10-2020 03:04PM

North testing leaves a lot to be desired a woman went to testing centre during the week but queue was too long left without testing got a text the following day saying she was positive
Also You do the test yourself in the car

Happydays2020 · 02-10-2020 03:04PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

They've 9 in ICU as per their own figures.

Not sure what capacity is but 9 isn't going to cause significant strain unless they've little beds to start with and no surge capacity

Capacity seems to be about 100.

bilston · 02-10-2020 03:05PM

Raphael Damaged Timer wrote: »

Spoke to 2 healthcare workers lately who are optimistic with flu season approaching. they were saying behaviour has changed 10 fold since covid so we could see a lot less cases of flu ending up in hospital? what do you think of this?

I bieve that this is what happened in Australia and NZ (and other SH countries) during their winter

CIARAN_BOYLE · 02-10-2020 03:06PM

igCorcaigh wrote: »

Oh really! That does seem wrong, I wonder was there some backlog or delay in the testing.

Quiet possibly but the numbers are still concerning even if they are 400 and 50 belonging to each of the previous 11 days.

s1ippy · 02-10-2020 03:08PM

Micky 32 wrote: »

Misery merchants don’t want to know anything about hope.

I was referring to the absolute waste of money they suggested, the lights shows in town centres.

That money could go to fund disability services which have been cut back year on year, mental health services which are woefully inadequate, housing provision, paying back the people having to manage a household with their now slashed PUP payment.

A light show. They're totally disconnected and absolute morons to boot.

Hulk Hands · 02-10-2020 03:09PM

Eod100 wrote: »

I dont think people get that there is no way to predict whether someone will be asymptomatic, mild symptoms, severe ones or need to be hospitalized and/or go to ICU. It's an old person's disease is the new it's the flu

Well there is a way to predict. It's said that 1 in 100 under 45 will be hospitalised. A fraction of those will go into ICU. You calculate risk in all of daily life. As it is, people under 45 are still in far more danger from the likes of car travel

Boggles · 02-10-2020 03:10PM

kingshankly wrote: »

North testing leaves a lot to be desired a woman went to testing centre during the week but queue was too long left without testing got a text the following day saying she was positive
Also You do the test yourself in the car

How did they know?

odyssey06 · 02-10-2020 03:10PM

bilston wrote: »

I bieve that this is what happened in Australia and NZ (and other SH countries) during their winter

I think it was mentioned in the thread earlier but they also much less travel than we can expect, so we might not get off as lightly as them in terms of flu.
We really need vaccine to be effective this season.

Boggles · 02-10-2020 03:11PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Well there is a way to predict. It's said that 1 in 100 under 45 will be hospitalised. A fraction of those will go into ICU. You calculate risk in all of daily life. As it is, people under 45 are still in far more danger from the likes of car travel

1 in 100 under 45 that travel in a car are hospitalized?

odyssey06 · 02-10-2020 03:11PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Well there is a way to predict. It's said that 1 in 100 under 45 will be hospitalised. A fraction of those will go into ICU. You calculate risk in all of daily life. As it is, people under 45 are still in far more danger from the likes of car travel

You are assuming there is the hospital, ventilation\ ICU capacity to treat them.

Happy4all · 02-10-2020 03:11PM

Were the number at for N Ireland at zero a short while ago?

Boggles · 02-10-2020 03:14PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

This is some moronic response. Do 1 in 100 people who walk around the streets end up in hospital due to Covid?

It was a response to your metric.

Sam Russell · 02-10-2020 03:14PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Median age of death from covid last month was 90.

Life expectancy is 82.

Covid is just another thing that unfortunately kills mostly old people, like pneumonia etc.

That's the truth that not one politician will come out and say.

That is to misunderstand statistics.

The life expectancy of 82 refers to a new born. As a person survives, their life expectancy improves because they have not succumbed to childhood ailments or fatal accidents. The longer they survive, the longer they should, on average, live.

If the figure of 82 is correct for life expectancy is correct, then someone who is 81 does not have a life expectancy of one. Equally someone of 90 does not have a life expectancy of minus 8.

Also, because someone is overweight or has diabetes or a heart condition does not equate to them being extendible - no matter their age.

Hulk Hands · 02-10-2020 03:15PM

Boggles wrote: »

1 in 100 under 45 that travel in a car are hospitalized?

More under 45's have died due to road accidents this year in Ireland than Covid. They don't realease car accident ICU figures but only a moron would assume that the Covid figure on that score is higher than the Car accident figure

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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