Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

hmmm · 02-10-2020 01:01PM

JDD wrote: »

I think it's really sensible. It's clear. We know that if people buy into it, it works. And then people can shop and book weddings and meet family during the "breathing room", with the understanding that another 2 week circuit breaker will come when infections and hospitalisations inevitably rise.

If it works, I like the idea.

If lockdowns are inevitable and the only we can control the virus (and it looks like asking some people to have restraint isn't working), then it's better for businesses, schools and our mental health in general to have the certainty about dates. We can work around those dates.

Everything is unprecedented - humanity has never really tried to control a virus like this before to this extent. So we don't know what works and what doesn't.

caveat emptor · 02-10-2020 01:04PM

Trend is clear. We are not where we were in April but likewise the hospitals are operating normally. We stopped nearly everything non Covid in hospitals in March / April and cleared the decks. We have the benefit of hindsight this time around and thank god they are trying to get it under control. Hospitals are always overcrowded here anyway. Trolleys anybody? You start to get systematic failures with relatively small numbers. Infection control is bloody hard. We have never dealt with a pathogen so contagious at this scale. Whole wards are already becoming no go zones. I honestly don't know why we don't designate one hospital as being the "covid hospital" during all this.

Leo is only playing to the gallery. He knows full well how this will go. "we have to look at other metrics" Then when they increase he can say yeah told you. Win win while not actually saying anything.

Funsterdelux · 02-10-2020 01:07PM

JP morgan forecast Uruguay GDP to grow 4.4% in 2021.

They are doing very well (2061 cases 48 deaths) considering they are sandwiched between Brazil (5m plus cases 140k deaths) and Argentina (700k cases 20k deaths)
source

Its early days yet, but its far from a "forlan" conclusion.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 01:07PM

seamus wrote: »

I think that moment has passed to be honest. Appealing for the good of society has been done.
People feel like they've put in their time, they are mentally and emotionally exhausted. And the damn virus has started winning again.

The feeling around Covid was one of fighting spirit, but that has given way to resignation, as people realise that a virus doesn't tire or give up.

Saying, "The hospital system is on the verge of collapse, now is the time to put in your effort", is the equivalent of telling an exhausted runner that they're nearly halfway there so it's time to speed up.

It's also too late to ask people to be careful. It's like telling that runner to run faster because now there's a bear chasing him. All the extra effort in the world won't stop what's about to happen.

There's a reason why mask compliance is so high - because people have been told that it has to be done. And not doing so will have you barred from premises and made a social pariah.

Whatever way you spin it, in the absence of enforcement, people will apply the version of the rules that they personally find the most tolerable.

The business owner who doesn't like home working, will tell his staff they have to come in. And they don't feel like they have a choice.
The woman who loves nothing more than a face to face chat will have half the street in her back garden twice a week.
The pub owner will let clients stay for 6 hours provided that they keep buying pints.
The guy who loves his pint will have no issues staying those six hours, or hopping from bar to bar all night to get his pints.

And they will all tell themselves that it's OK because they're doing their best.

Humans, as an animal, crave routine. Even in the midst of prolonged wars, we find that after the initial devastation of the first few months, people start going back about their daily business, partially numbed to the chaos around them. They go to work, they play with their kids, they have sex, they party with their mates, paying a passing interest to the explosions happening elsewhere in the city.

That's where we are right now. People desperately want to get back to a routine. It doesn't have to be "normal", but it has to be regular. And routines require solid boundaries. In the absence of civil boundaries, people will define their own.

I 100% agree that the focus on daily cases needs to end. And a better metric is needed. I think I said it here about two weeks ago. It's an example of an undefined boundary; it's pure chaos. A number being touted on a daily basis without any real context into whether it's good, bad or indifferent. It is in many ways less helpful now; a higher or lower number today has absolutely zero bearing on me. I'm not going to alter my behaviour or change my boundaries based on how many random people I don't know, have covid.

Listening to Varadkar I feel that the government is now coming around to using the hospital metric and appealing to the public. Is it too late? Maybe. Is the public too tired? Maybe. But something other than what we've had to date needs to be tried because enforcement will now only work on those willing to be forced and that group is shrinking by the day.

Treepole · 02-10-2020 01:08PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Trend is clear. We are not where we were in April but likewise the hospitals are operating normally. We stopped nearly everything non Covid in hospitals in March / April and cleared the decks. We have the benefit of hindsight this time around and thank god they are trying to get it under control.

Leo is only playing to the gallery. He knows full well how this will go. "we have to look at other metrics" Then when they increase he can say yeah told you. Win win while not actually saying anything.

Why do you have the graph stopping at 120?
Why doesn't the Y index show the total capacity of the hospitals?

JDD · 02-10-2020 01:10PM

Boggles wrote: »

I will when he stops pretending he is opposition.

Absolute Cretin.

I'll say this. I thought Leo was a right wing, incompetent, overly ambitious c*nt and did not vote for him in the January election. I still think he's a right wing, incompetent pr*ck when it comes to running a country in normal times. The blame for the housing, homeless and healthcare basket cases can be laid directly at his door and I'd wager he never lost a minute's sleep over the families stuck in tiny rentals with no security, or the homeless hopping from couch to couch, or the elderly dying on trollies in A&E.

But when it comes to Covid, he was the right person in the right job. It is amazing how someone skills can be a perfect fit for one type of job, and be so disasterously wrong for another. He made the right decisions, at the right time, and crucially communicated those decisions in a clear, and truthful manner. Everything he has said since he has stepped down as Taoiseach I have agreed with. I think if he was still in place we would be in a much better position than we are now.

In some ways, he is a bit like Churchill. Churchill was another steaming heap of **** as a person.

Leo would be the right person (certainly, would be better than MM and Stephen Donnolly) to steer us through this crisis up until we either get a vaccine in April or we decide what our long term plan is.

People trusted Churchill to win the war, but they didn't trust him to rebuild the country. I'd feel the same about Leo. He would be good at getting us to mid-2021, and then I'd solidly give him the boot when we needed a government to rebuild the country.

ACitizenErased · 02-10-2020 01:10PM

Treepole wrote: »

Why do you have the graph stopping at 120?
Why doesn't the Y index show the total capacity of the hospitals?

Because that wouldn’t be daunting, obviously. Hospitals are doing just fine. Anyone who needs serious treatment is getting it.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 01:11PM

hmmm wrote: »

If it works, I like the idea.

If lockdowns are inevitable and the only we can control the virus (and it looks like asking some people to have restraint isn't working), then it's better for businesses, schools and our mental health in general to have the certainty about dates. We can work around those dates.

Everything is unprecedented - humanity has never really tried to control a virus like this before to this extent. So we don't know what works and what doesn't.

Perhaps it isn't working because the government has been less than honest. Or perhaps it's because they tried to control people through fear and now the people have become less fearful. One way or another they have lost far too many people to be able to impose a successful lockdown.

Boggles · 02-10-2020 01:12PM

If NPHET didn't report the daily figures you'd have the same sort of people on claiming cover up.

As Glynn said the other day when his time was being wasted by McNamara.

On one hand, we are being told we need to stop the daily briefings because we are worrying people and giving too much information. On the other side, we are being told we are not giving enough. We have to manage a pandemic in the middle of this

There is a growing narrative, he said, that if we had “just one more data point or piece of information that we would be able to control this in a better way”. However, we already have acres of data out there, he said, and every time NPHET makes a set of recommendations, the data upon which we make those recommendations is published within hours of a Government decision

caveat emptor · 02-10-2020 01:15PM

Treepole wrote: »

Why do you have the graph stopping at 120?
Why doesn't the Y index show the total capacity of the hospitals?

You'd have to ask the person that made it but I'd assume it's because that's the limit of the data so far.

You have a lot of "good ideas". You should make your own chart.

Boggles · 02-10-2020 01:17PM

JDD wrote: »

I'll say this. I thought Leo was a right wing, incompetent, overly ambitious c*nt and did not vote for him in the January election. I still think he's a right wing, incompetent pr*ck when it comes to running a country in normal times. The blame for the housing, homeless and healthcare basket cases can be laid directly at his door and I'd wager he never lost a minute's sleep over the families stuck in tiny rentals with no security, or the homeless hopping from couch to couch, or the elderly dying on trollies in A&E.

But when it comes to Covid, he was the right person in the right job. It is amazing how someone skills can be a perfect fit for one type of job, and be so disasterously wrong for another. He made the right decisions, at the right time, and crucially communicated those decisions in a clear, and truthful manner. Everything he has said since he has stepped down as Taoiseach I have agreed with. I think if he was still in place we would be in a much better position than we are now.

In some ways, he is a bit like Churchill. Churchill was another steaming heap of **** as a person.

Leo would be the right person (certainly, would be better than MM and Stephen Donnolly) to steer us through this crisis up until we either get a vaccine in April or we decide what our long term plan is.

People trusted Churchill to win the war, but they didn't trust him to rebuild the country. I'd feel the same about Leo. He would be good at getting us to mid-2021, and then I'd solidly give him the boot when we needed a government to rebuild the country.

Nah. Leo cares about one person and one person only. Leo.

These sly interviews he does is for one reason and one reason only to score political points against FF.

In the middle of the pandemic he is not putting his shoulder to the wheel he is playing politics.

He is an absolute Cretin of the highest order and sooner he fúcks off to Europe or whatever else is on his life bucket list the better.

Arghus · 02-10-2020 01:17PM

I understand Leo's point to an extent, that case numbers aren't the only thing of importance, but he doesn't deny that the numbers are rising, will continue to rise and that eventually that will lead to increased hospilisations and deaths - which is what is currently happening. And that's why more restrictions are likely over the coming period, so I don't actually know what the point of his quotes are, aside from maybe some favourable press. Last week The Irish Times ran a "well sourced" report about how Leo - seemingly uniquely amongst the cabinet - "got it" and understood the data and the seriousness of the situation. So, we'll see what Leo's soundbites are next week.

eagle eye · 02-10-2020 01:17PM

Hector Savage wrote: »

China we can't trust.

NZ and Australia will have more spikes, all they are doing is delaying this, zero covid is a nonsense strategy.

We will see as they enter their summer how hard it is to lock down the residents.
Dictator Ardhern will have a tough time.

wadacrack wrote: »

Ebola, influenza, Hib, swine flu, rubella, mumps, hepatitis A+B, yellow fever, rabies were all vaccinated and under control. SARS & MERS (both coronavirus') & Nipah eliminated, herd immunity was NOT an option for any of those virus's . Herd immunity a concept people like to think will work, rarely works with viruses in real life.Immune response can vary among the population. The Ro is currently about 1.5 in Europe.

If its kept below 1 for a prolonged period then an elimination strategy can become a viable option. With NPI this was done so with a vaccine and more effective testing and tracing then it becomes a viable option. If a vaccine is highly effective and keep the Ro below 1 then normal life can resume.

.

podgeandrodge · 02-10-2020 01:18PM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

On the positive side North Korea confirms that it has successfully tamed the disease without a single case having been confirmed in the country.

#hope

MNKGA

Jinglejangle69 · 02-10-2020 01:18PM

Boggles wrote: »

Nah. Leo cares about one person and one person only. Leo.

These sly interviews he does is for one reason and one reason only to score political points against FF.

In the middle of the pandemic he is not putting his shoulder to the wheel he is playing politics.

He is an absolute Cretin of the highest order and sooner he fúcks off to Europe or whatever else is on his life bucket list the better.

Bit like all the other political parties during the pandemic so.

podgeandrodge · 02-10-2020 01:20PM

ZX7R wrote: »

He is right the Media have a fixation with reporting test numbers and not just for Ireland

But travel abroad and lots of other stuff is all based on case numbers.

Boggles · 02-10-2020 01:20PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Bit like all the other political parties during the pandemic so.

Ahhh. Leo is Tánaiste.

i.e. part of the government.

02-10-2020 01:20PM

seamus wrote: »

I think that moment has passed to be honest. Appealing for the good of society has been done.
People feel like they've put in their time, they are mentally and emotionally exhausted. And the damn virus has started winning again.

The feeling around Covid was one of fighting spirit, but that has given way to resignation, as people realise that a virus doesn't tire or give up.

Saying, "The hospital system is on the verge of collapse, now is the time to put in your effort", is the equivalent of telling an exhausted runner that they're nearly halfway there so it's time to speed up.

It's also too late to ask people to be careful. It's like telling that runner to run faster because now there's a bear chasing him. All the extra effort in the world won't stop what's about to happen.

There's a reason why mask compliance is so high - because people have been told that it has to be done. And not doing so will have you barred from premises and made a social pariah.

Whatever way you spin it, in the absence of enforcement, people will apply the version of the rules that they personally find the most tolerable.

The business owner who doesn't like home working, will tell his staff they have to come in. And they don't feel like they have a choice.
The woman who loves nothing more than a face to face chat will have half the street in her back garden twice a week.
The pub owner will let clients stay for 6 hours provided that they keep buying pints.
The guy who loves his pint will have no issues staying those six hours, or hopping from bar to bar all night to get his pints.

And they will all tell themselves that it's OK because they're doing their best.

Humans, as an animal, crave routine. Even in the midst of prolonged wars, we find that after the initial devastation of the first few months, people start going back about their daily business, partially numbed to the chaos around them. They go to work, they play with their kids, they have sex, they party with their mates, paying a passing interest to the explosions happening elsewhere in the city.

That's where we are right now. People desperately want to get back to a routine. It doesn't have to be "normal", but it has to be regular. And routines require solid boundaries. In the absence of civil boundaries, people will define their own.

I 100% agree that the focus on daily cases needs to end. And a better metric is needed. I think I said it here about two weeks ago. It's an example of an undefined boundary; it's pure chaos. A number being touted on a daily basis without any real context into whether it's good, bad or indifferent. It is in many ways less helpful now; a higher or lower number today has absolutely zero bearing on me. I'm not going to alter my behaviour or change my boundaries based on how many random people I don't know, have covid.

I'm not sure new laws is going to solve the issue. The gardai don't want them and most of the public don't either. So called 'house parties' are one of the main issues, and laws won't solve that. The vast vast majority of these are going to be relatively small gatherings in private homes, ten or less people. But because everyone has latched onto the term 'house parties', people are picturing raging gafs with blaring music. You might stop those but they are the minority. The vast vast majority are gatherings you wouldn't be aware of if you weren't invited, no new law is going to stop that.

On a seperate point, just because people have decided to behave more normally doesn't mean they're wrong to, again everyone has their own risk assessments. We were never all in it together, people have realised that now and as ever with human nature, are beginning to act in their own best interests.

eagle eye · 02-10-2020 01:20PM

Arghus wrote: »

I understand Leo's point to an extent, that case numbers aren't the only thing of importance, but he doesn't deny that the numbers are rising, will continue to rise and that eventually that will lead to increased hospilisations and deaths - which is what is currently happening. And that's why more restrictions are likely over the coming period, so I don't actually know what the point of his quotes are, aside from maybe some favourable press. Last week The Irish Times ran a "well sourced" report about how Leo - seemingly uniquely amongst the cabinet - "got it" and understood the data and the seriousness of the situation. So, we'll see what Leo's soundbites are next week.

He's just playing the political popuarity game.

Tbh, during his tenure as Taoiseach during this pandemic I wondered how he ever became a doctor due to the poor decisions he and those around him made. Eventually they got their act together but it took quite a while when it was clear and obvious what was required in late February.

is_that_so · 02-10-2020 01:25PM

eagle eye wrote: »

.

SARS was very aggressive and burnt itself out. MERS pops up very sporadically in the ME.

TonyMaloney · 02-10-2020 01:26PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

668 new cases. 3 deaths.

244 are in Greater Glasgow and Clyde.

Glasgow has now been under local restrictions for a month today. The restrictions are a bit of a mix between our level 3 and 4. Pubs open, but no visits to other households at all.

I can't find a precise number but I believe they had about 65 cases in Glasgow and Clyde region the day they imposed restrictions.
Hard to garner too much from their experience, other than to say that the level 4 household restrictions, economically cheap but socially painful, are no panacea.

They're now seriously considering a "circuit-breaker" on a national level.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-54368306

It's all a bit dispiriting. Perhaps a glimpse at our near future.

775 new cases, 4 deaths

324 in Glasgow and Clyde

douglashyde · 02-10-2020 01:33PM

As the saying goes; "if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything"

Regardless of Leo's motivations; the fact is case numbers , particularly daily case numbers is a bad primary metric. What matters is how many people are getting seriously sick and dying, which we can truly measure.

To go a step further, it's difficult for many to accept; but those getting seriously ill and dying already have (statistical speaking) serious health problems - this is where the laser focus of govt policy should be.

Today I've had genuinely had these two conversions; A close friend who's a chef with the same hotel for 10 years. A wedding band who's group have had to split up this year.

eagle eye · 02-10-2020 01:39PM

douglashyde wrote: »

As the saying goes; "if you torture the data long enough, it will confess to anything"

Regardless of Leo's motivations; the fact is case numbers , particularly daily case numbers is a bad primary metric. What matters is how many people are getting seriously sick and dying, which we can truly measure.

To go a step further, it's difficult for many to accept; but those getting seriously ill and dying already have (statistical speaking) serious health problems - this is where the laser focus of govt policy should be.

Today I've had genuinely had these two conversions; A close friend who's a chef with the same hotel for 10 years. A wedding band who's group have had to split up this year.

Have you facts on this? Links please.

You are saying that no person who was healthy prior to contracting covid-19 has suffered greatly or died?

polesheep · 02-10-2020 01:40PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Have you facts on this? Links please.

You are saying that no person who was healthy prior to contracting covid-19 has suffered greatly or died?

He said 'statistically speaking'.

Boggles · 02-10-2020 01:41PM

douglashyde wrote: »

Regardless of Leo's motivations; the fact is case numbers , particularly daily case numbers is a bad primary metric. What matters is how many people are getting seriously sick and dying, which we can truly measure.

This simply isn't true.

Case numbers and in particular the profile and location of the case numbers is an indicator of numerous things particular a heads up of future hospitalizations.

Absolutely vital information in helping to run a health service during a pandemic.

eagle eye · 02-10-2020 01:42PM

polesheep wrote: »

He said 'statistically speaking'.

Well let's see the figures.

odyssey06 · 02-10-2020 01:44PM

The Journal has fact-checked the leaflet from "Anti Corruption Ireland" and absolutely ripped it to shreds as either FALSE, or NONSENSE, with one of two UNPROVENs.
https://www.thejournal.ie/vaccine-covid-misinformation-ireland-5216108-Oct2020/

Many of the claims appear to be deliberate mis-representation of statistics in circulation, together with conspiracy theory nonsense.

Ronan|Raven · 02-10-2020 01:46PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

The Journal has fact-checked the leaflet from "Anti Corruption Ireland" and absolutely ripped it to shreds as either FALSE, or NONSENSE, with one of two UNPROVENs.
https://www.thejournal.ie/vaccine-covid-misinformation-ireland-5216108-Oct2020/

Many of the claims appear to be deliberate mis-representation of statistics in circulation, together with conspiracy theory nonsense.

Well I am shocked!

polesheep · 02-10-2020 01:46PM

Boggles wrote: »

This simply isn't true.

Case numbers and in particular the profile and location of the case numbers is an indicator of numerous things particular a heads up of future hospitalizations.

Absolutely vital information in helping to run a health service during a pandemic.

For the decision makers, certainly. But listing them off every day for the public had just one purpose... instil fear and compliance.

eagle eye · 02-10-2020 01:47PM

odyssey06 wrote: »

The Journal has fact-checked the leaflet from "Anti Corruption Ireland" and absolutely ripped it to shreds as either FALSE, or NONSENSE, with one of two UNPROVENs.
https://www.thejournal.ie/vaccine-covid-misinformation-ireland-5216108-Oct2020/

Many of the claims appear to be deliberate mis-representation of statistics in circulation, together with conspiracy theory nonsense.

You'd want to be really stupid to believe that nonsense. I don't even see why a media outlet would bother fact checking it. It's just something I'd dismiss, if it came through my letter box it'd go straight in the bin.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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