Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

JDD · 02-10-2020 10:51AM

ginoginelli wrote: »

Level 1 or 2 restrictions around christmas is just asking for it. With the pubs and restaurants open, as well as multiple people allowed to meet up - cases and clusters would likely rocket. Then we would be going into January, one of the highest flu rate months, and were hospitals have been close to breaking point the past few years.

It is, in a way. If we had a circuit breaker and it worked to the point that we got down to under 100 cases a day, we may get away with four weeks of lower restrictions over Christmas. Yes, infections will steeply increase in those four weeks. If we had another circuit breaker after Christmas it should help alleviate the stress that will be put on the hospitals in January and February.

You are right, it would be a risk. But it seems to me that infections are going to continue to steeply increase - with perhaps the rate of increase dropping as a result of Level 3 restrictions - anyway and we're going to be at a point in mid-December that we'd hit in January. And then it's too late because there's no way you can bring in three weeks of Level 4 restrictions extending over Christmas Day. I mean obviously you could - it's possible - but it won't happen because no government will want to be the one who mismanaged the covid crisis to the point that Christmas was cancelled.

Kermit.de.frog · 02-10-2020 10:52AM

Two record tolls out of Europe to report so far today as the spread of the disease accelerates across the northern hemisphere with just a couple of exceptions at this point inc China.

Poland reported record number of cases overnight with 2,292 new confirmed cases and 27 new deaths.

Belgium also reported record number of new cases overnight with 2,605 new confirmed cases and 7 new deaths.

Italy, Germany, France, Spain and the UK all to watch over the coming days.

The situation is deteriorating across the continent and much more drastic action is needed across the board including here at home.

On the positive side North Korea confirms that it has successfully tamed the disease without a single case having been confirmed in the country.

North Korea now has the coronavirus “under safe and stable control,” the country’s UN ambassador, Kim Song, told the United Nations General Assembly.

“Thanks to the far-sighted leadership of the government of the DPRK ... the anti-epidemic situation in our country is now under safe and stable control,” said Kim, using the initials of his country’s formal name - the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

#hope

polesheep · 02-10-2020 10:53AM

JDD wrote: »

I agree. That's why I was thinking three weeks rather than two. And you absolutely would have to go back down to level 2 at the end of the three weeks, but if you got people's buy in, with the knowledge that they could organise that family gathering in three week's time people might actually adhere to it? In theory, with buy in, infections should plummet.

I mean think about it. I'm sticking to the rules at the moment in Dublin. But I'm still allowing my kids have playdates. My parents still take the kids on a Friday. I'm still going to shopping centres at the weekend and going to friends houses for coffee. Now I'm trying not to organise things myself, but if someone invites me I'm very reluctant to say "oh, no thanks, I'm trying to reduce my contacts" because that's basically sounds like "Actually, I don't want to go even though it's allowed under the restrictions, and you're just not a good enough friend to make the cut". And I'm keeping to the rules - what about everyone that is having groups over to their house or employers that are continuing to insist that employees attend the office? Level 3 restrictions simply aren't going to make the inroads that NPHET hope they will and neither will Level 4.

So we'll be left in this Level 2/3/4 limbo indefinitely which will only increase people's fatigue with the rules and crush the economy more.

Of course a full three week lockdown would entail having to be honest and clear with the population, with a St. Patrick's Day style address and with clear policing and regulations to support it. Which is absolutely too much to hope for from this government so I'd say this isn't really a runner.

They will never get the same buy in that they got first time around.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 10:57AM

JDD wrote: »

It is, in a way. If we had a circuit breaker and it worked to the point that we got down to under 100 cases a day, we may get away with four weeks of lower restrictions over Christmas. Yes, infections will steeply increase in those four weeks. If we had another circuit breaker after Christmas it should help alleviate the stress that will be put on the hospitals in January and February.

You are right, it would be a risk. But it seems to me that infections are going to continue to steeply increase - with perhaps the rate of increase dropping as a result of Level 3 restrictions - anyway and we're going to be at a point in mid-December that we'd hit in January. And then it's too late because there's no way you can bring in three weeks of Level 4 restrictions extending over Christmas Day. I mean obviously you could - it's possible - but it won't happen because no government will want to be the one who mismanaged the covid crisis to the point that Christmas was cancelled.

So you are now talking about two 'circuit breakers'. How many do you want and how many do you think will be adhered to by the people? It's not an answer, it's just another irritating phrase like 'new normal'.

Funsterdelux · 02-10-2020 10:58AM

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Two record tolls out of Europe to report so far today as the spread of the disease accelerates across the northern hemisphere with just a couple of exceptions at this point inc China.

Poland reported record number of cases overnight with 2,292 new confirmed cases and 27 new deaths.

Belgium also reported record number of new cases overnight with 2,605 new confirmed cases and 7 new deaths.

Italy, Germany, France, Spain and the UK all to watch over the coming days.

The situation is deteriorating across the continent and much more drastic action is needed across the board including here at home.

On the positive side North Korea confirms that it has successfully tamed the disease without a single case having been confirmed in the country.

#hope

kim pic

Aww yeah, keep it comin, keep it comin.

JDD · 02-10-2020 10:59AM

Thats a terrible idea and could quickly turn into a Christmas from hell. People need to stop thinking about short term gains. Priority at the moment should be getting and keep the R number below 1.

But how do we keep it below 1 consistently? Obviously March/April/May lockdown worked, but that's beyond Level 5 and I don't see that being imposed again unless it looks like hospitals will be overrun within two weeks.

June was essentially Level 4 restrictions, and July Level 3. As far as I remember, the R number went above 1 in mid July.

To keep the R number under 1 we'd need to be consistently at Level 4, across the country. I mean, Level 3 restrictions would probably work if we didn't have a population that was fatigued and confused, but we are where we are. We can bleat about "if only everyone would wear a mask/young people stopped having parties/people kept the 2m rule" all we like, but behavioural economics predicted this right from the start.

Ideally, people would accept that this is a marathon and not a sprint. But if it's clear that people are not going to finish the marathon by running consistently to the finish line (especially if they can't see where the finish line is), and it is imperative that they keep going, isn't it better to ask them to sprint and rest, sprint and rest?

GooglePlus · 02-10-2020 10:59AM

polesheep wrote: »

So you are now talking about two 'circuit breakers'. How many do you want and how many do you think will be adhered to by the people? It's not an answer, it's just another irritating phrase like 'new normal'.

We need to circuit break the new normal in time for a near normal Christmas, it's not that hard to understand.

ixoy · 02-10-2020 11:01AM

wadacrack wrote: »

Thats a terrible idea and could quickly turn into a Christmas from hell. People need to stop thinking about short term gains. Priority at the moment should be getting and keep the R number below 1.

Which a 3-week lockdown would achieve.

There must be some thoughts on this because the government knows, at some level, people will be ignoring the guidelines on house visits at Christmas particularly if it's a nationwide 1-household-visiting idea. It doesn't matter whether they shouldn't, a significant amount just will. At least by doing a lockdown beforehand they're giving the breathing room to cope with this.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 11:04AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

We need to circuit break the new normal in time for a near normal Christmas, it's not that hard to understand.

Aha, I see. And although the next two weeks will be critical it'll all be doubleplusgood.

GooglePlus · 02-10-2020 11:05AM

ixoy wrote: »

Which a 3-week lockdown would achieve.

There must be some thoughts on this because the government knows, at some level, people will be ignoring the guidelines on house visits at Christmas particularly if it's a nationwide 1-household-visiting idea. It doesn't matter whether they shouldn't, a significant amount just will. At least by doing a lockdown beforehand they're giving the breathing room to cope with this.

Lockdown mid-late November to let the numbers come down and the spread to reduce. Give the people confidence to go and spend their money in December. Everyone's a winner when the economy benefits and this will help, I reckon.

November's a ****e month anyway.

02-10-2020 11:06AM

polesheep wrote: »

So you are now talking about two 'circuit breakers'. How many do you want and how many do you think will be adhered to by the people? It's not an answer, it's just another irritating phrase like 'new normal'.

SAGE in the UK is suggesting that 2 week 'circuit breakers' followed by a month of so of 'normality' through to Easter is likely to become their recommendation

JDD · 02-10-2020 11:06AM

polesheep wrote: »

So you are now talking about two 'circuit breakers'. How many do you want and how many do you think will be adhered to by the people? It's not an answer, it's just another irritating phrase like 'new normal'.

Well this is the thing. I don't know. All of these plans around restrictions are based on the hope/expectation that we will have a vaccine by mid-2021.

If governments were seriously planning for that not to happen, I'm not sure if we'd have the same system that we have now at all.

I don't know how well a circuit breaker would be adhered to. What I know right now is that Level 3 restrictions are not working to the point that we need them to, and Level 4/5 restrictions for any medium length of time are to be avoided at all costs. I am wondering whether a "Level 6" restrictions, for two very short and defined periods, would work better than a Level 3 then 4 then 3 then 2 then 4 type scenario over the next three months.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 11:08AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Lockdown mid-late November to let the numbers come down and the spread to reduce. Give the people confidence to go and spend their money in December. Everyone's a winner when the economy benefits and this will help, I reckon.

November's a ****e month anyway.

They simply will not get the same level of adherence to another lockdown. You are correct in saying that November is usually the bleakest month, but I would see that as another reason why people won't adhere to a lockdown... they will not be in the mood for it.

ACitizenErased · 02-10-2020 11:09AM

Prof Nolan not being the most consistent in his evidence....
https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1311956985437474816?s=21

JDD · 02-10-2020 11:10AM

Deleted User wrote: »

SAGE in the UK is suggesting that 2 week 'circuit breakers' followed by a month of so of 'normality' through to Easter is likely to become their recommendation

I think it's really sensible. It's clear. We know that if people buy into it, it works. And then people can shop and book weddings and meet family during the "breathing room", with the understanding that another 2 week circuit breaker will come when infections and hospitalisations inevitably rise.

ixoy · 02-10-2020 11:13AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Lockdown mid-late November to let the numbers come down and the spread to reduce. Give the people confidence to go and spend their money in December. Everyone's a winner when the economy benefits and this will help, I reckon.

I think so - the timing would be a bit tricky to get right but it'd also be an interesting shift in mindset: It'd be the government offering the carrot instead of the stick.
It'd probably also get backing from the hospitality industry for example as it'd give them a greater degree of confidence.

I suspect we won't get it for a variety of reasons but I think there'd be a level of support for it.

JDD · 02-10-2020 11:15AM

I suspect we won't get it too, because it means shelving the "Living with Covid" plan two months after publishing it and I don't think MM can lose that kind of face.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 11:16AM

JDD wrote: »

Well this is the thing. I don't know. All of these plans around restrictions are based on the hope/expectation that we will have a vaccine by mid-2021.

If governments were seriously planning for that not to happen, I'm not sure if we'd have the same system that we have now at all.

I don't know how well a circuit breaker would be adhered to. What I know right now is that Level 3 restrictions are not working to the point that we need them to, and Level 4/5 restrictions for any medium length of time are to be avoided at all costs. I am wondering whether a "Level 6" restrictions, for two very short and defined periods, would work better than a Level 3 then 4 then 3 then 2 then 4 type scenario over the next three months.

Unfortunately, I believe you are correct about the part in bold and it has led to blinkered thinking. Obviously, while there are positive signs, there can be no guarantee about a vaccine. There are also no guarantees about take-up rate of a vaccine. I keep reading about getting the vaccine to the healthcare workers as a priority, but a lot of HCWs I have spoken to are as apprehensive of a rushed vaccine as anyone else. A mass vaccination is far from being a slam dunk. They really need to think about Covid without a vaccine and if a safe vaccine comes along consider it a bonus.

growleaves · 02-10-2020 11:17AM

I think we should go to Level 7 as a circuit breaker around Halloween when the veil between this world and the spirit world is at its thinnest.

Advantages: It will buy us time to develop a vaccine

Drawbacks: The living will envy the dead

Happydays2020 · 02-10-2020 11:19AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Prof Nolan not being the most consistent in his evidence....
https://twitter.com/higginsdavidw/status/1311956985437474816?s=21

They got it wrong a few weeks back in blaming hospitality. The messaging from once again wrong as the world and it’s mother knows the biggest risks are in private household events (not helped by schools).

Stheno · 02-10-2020 11:20AM

JDD wrote: »

I mean think about it. I'm sticking to the rules at the moment in Dublin. But I'm still allowing my kids have playdates. My parents still take the kids on a Friday. I'm still going to shopping centres at the weekend and going to friends houses for coffee. Now I'm trying not to organise things myself, but if someone invites me I'm very reluctant to say "oh, no thanks, I'm trying to reduce my contacts" because that's basically sounds like "Actually, I don't want to go even though it's allowed under the restrictions, and you're just not a good enough friend to make the cut". And I'm keeping to the rules - what about everyone that is having groups over to their house or employers that are continuing to insist that employees attend the office? Level 3 restrictions simply aren't going to make the inroads that NPHET hope they will and neither will Level 4.

I'm astonished you consider that you are sticking to the rules tbh, you seem to be having a fair few social interactions between your kids playdates, them going to your parents and you going for coffee dates with your friends

How is that limiting your contacts?

polesheep · 02-10-2020 11:21AM

Deleted User wrote: »

SAGE in the UK is suggesting that 2 week 'circuit breakers' followed by a month of so of 'normality' through to Easter is likely to become their recommendation

And it may well be their recommendation, but has no one noticed how so many of the 'milder' restrictions are being ignored? What chance of a big enough buy-in to a lockdown? I think very little.

02-10-2020 11:23AM

polesheep wrote: »

And it may well be their recommendation, but has no one noticed how so many of the 'milder' restrictions are being ignored? What chance of a big enough buy-in to a lockdown? I think very little.

The thinking is that harder restrictions are easier to enforce as their are more black and white. There is far less ambiguity and scope for interpretation

polesheep · 02-10-2020 11:29AM

Deleted User wrote: »

The thinking is that harder restrictions are easier to enforce as their are more black and white. There is far less ambiguity and scope for interpretation

They were only easy to enforce because they didn't really have to be enforced, as there was a buy-in from the public. That was before young people decided that they had had enough, along with other sections of society. Take a look around you, almost everyone is breaking the restrictions that are currently in place. Some people are adhering to some of them, but the public is being selective.

JDD · 02-10-2020 11:31AM

Stheno wrote: »

I'm astonished you consider that you are sticking to the rules tbh, you seem to be having a fair few social interactions between your kids playdates, them going to your parents and you going for coffee dates with your friends

How is that limiting your contacts?

Before the level 3 restrictions I was part of two book clubs, a running group, would visit different family at the weekend and pop into neighbours houses in the evening. Mostly over the summer these meet ups were outside.

And of course pre-Covid I would have the gym, and work, and public transport, and everything else that goes with a normal life.

I have definitely decreased my social contacts by half since Level 3 came in. I suppose it's different for everyone.

Happydays2020 · 02-10-2020 11:32AM

polesheep wrote: »

They were only easy to enforce because they didn't really have to be enforced, as there was a buy-in from the public. That was before young people decided that they had had enough, along with other sections of society. Take a look around you, almost everyone is breaking the restrictions that are currently in place. Some people are adhering to some of them, but the public is being selective.

How the hell would hospitality or retail operate in such a scenario? How would stick be managed? Would it be a defined circuit breaker or subject to numbers? How would worker supports operate on a 2 week on, 4 week off basis? Will it apply to schools also? Who will pay for it?

polesheep · 02-10-2020 11:34AM

JDD wrote: »

Before the level 3 restrictions I was part of two book clubs, a running group, would visit different family at the weekend and pop into neighbours houses in the evening. Mostly over the summer these meet ups were outside.

And of course pre-Covid I would have the gym, and work, and public transport, and everything else that goes with a normal life.

I have definitely decreased my social contacts by half since Level 3 came in. I suppose it's different for everyone.

You are absolutely no different to the vast majority of people insofar as you are being selective as to which restrictions you will adhere to. I agree with you 100%. But it demonstrates that people will not buy into another 'circuit breaker'.

polesheep · 02-10-2020 11:36AM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

How the hell would hospitality or retail operate in such a scenario? How would stick be managed? Would it be a defined circuit breaker or subject to numbers? How would worker supports operate on a 2 week on, 4 week off basis? Will it apply to schools also? Who will pay for it?

And you could add an lot more to that list. It would be a disaster in so many ways.

bb1234567 · 02-10-2020 11:40AM

https://twitter.com/RobCross247/status/1311773700539265026/photo/1

The things COVID have done to us..

Ger Roe · 02-10-2020 11:41AM

I am already beginning to hate hearing and seeing the term 'circuit breaker'.

Making space for the virus to rage on later in the year?... no thanks. Keep the fight slow and steady, if at all possible. It's tough, but we have to get this nailed as soon as possible and hope that we get though the hopefully shorter overall pandemic period, without catching the damn thing.

There is no good time to catch it and it won't 'circuit break' to allow us party.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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