Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

covid20 · 30-09-2020 06:57PM

Gael23 wrote: »

This is positive. We are seeing a flattening of the rise in Dublin. Hopefully a decrease will soon follow

By what mechanism other than hope?

tom1ie · 30-09-2020 06:58PM

covid20 wrote: »

I'm not religious don't worry...i am saying there is too much obsession with not overwhelming the HSE, that was a bad message in hindsight because it gave mental scope to take the eye off the ball during the summer for many. "Job done"

Not much faith in models, previous ones were wrong. We know spread is accelerating and that is all we need to know, it is not subsiding.

I disagree I think we should know the potential point at which the Hse becomes overwhelmed.

Blondini · 30-09-2020 06:58PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Ffs it’s not a competition!!
The virus will spread to any willing host regardless of what GAA jersey the host wears.

Especially the bog monkeys outside the M50.

mollser · 30-09-2020 06:58PM

The Dublin South East numbers are soo different to the LEA map on the Covid Hub, and have been since they've being doing this analysis, not sure why this isn't being called out. All the individual South East districts are hovering around 70 per 100k (and are in the main the lowest along with Blackrock), how does this jump to 188 when put together???

covid20 · 30-09-2020 07:00PM

tom1ie wrote: »

I disagree I think we should know the potential point at which the Hse becomes overwhelmed.

Why? we know if we get there we are already f**ked

lukas8888 · 30-09-2020 07:01PM

Dwight356 wrote: »

why are the bookies still open . No social distancing, no mask wearing and people can be there all day .

Any time i have visited a bookmakers shop every one was wearing masks and i have gone in to different shops every few days.As for staying in the shop all day management move on any punters camping in after a couple of hours.

what the hell! · 30-09-2020 07:02PM

Will it more than likely be midnight Friday if it’s level 3 for Cork?

is_that_so · 30-09-2020 07:04PM

what the hell! wrote: »

Will it more than likely be midnight Friday if it’s level 3 for Cork?

Yeah, NPHET meeting tomorrow on it so any new recommendations will come from that.

covid20 · 30-09-2020 07:05PM

growleaves wrote: »

Mass arrests, military fascism, hard lockdowns for the winter etc.

Nope sorry not convinced that turning the country into a Soviet-like hellhole is the cutting edge of science. That and coughing into your elbow.

Remember what I said about transposed fear...serious exaggeration and paranoid thinking.

Fascism....me arse

podgeandrodge · 30-09-2020 07:05PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

We might as well get used to the fact that attempting to suppress this virus is not going to work short of locking everyone in their houses and having a squad of minders in hazmat suits delivering food and other essentials.
Or we could just get on with our lives taking a few precautions but resuming near normal social activity. Of course the virus will spread, but it is spreading anyway, so what’s the difference? Do we really think that we can continue this twilight existence for much longer. I know I can’t. I want to live my life, not hide away from it.

PowerToWait wrote: »

Where are you living? That's exactly what's happening in pretty much everywhere.

froog wrote: »

this means overloading our ICUs and other hospital beds. that's not a maybe, it's a certainty. in case you don't know what that means, it means people who need certain care, not just covid, don't get it and die. are you okay with that?

I think they are just stating the general feeling of the population now. Nobody is consciously saying to hell with the vulnerable, but it's seems clear that the population has grown tired of the effort. That was always going to happen.

Gael23 wrote: »

This is positive. We are seeing a flattening of the rise in Dublin. Hopefully a decrease will soon follow

And then they lift restrictions. Then cases rise again. Etc etc. Is there much point, or should we just live with appropriate social distancing, hand washing and move along. If that's all that was asked for perhaps people would concentrate more on actually doing that. I think since masks became ubiquitous that's taken a back seat. I remember going out for walks in March/April and people would move aside on the street to give you space. That's all gone.

spookwoman · 30-09-2020 07:06PM

HUB Updated early, 22 now in ICU. Up 2 from earlier

growleaves · 30-09-2020 07:07PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Military fascism? Soviet-like hellhole?

You're worse than trump making outrageous statements to suit your own selfish narrative.

If you think our lockdown is soviet-like, you should go off and do some hard labour in Siberia. What a stupid statement.

Nah mate read the thread.

One poster called for mass arrests.

Another poster called for the Army to control people and use force if necessary.

That's what I'm responding to in my comment, not the actions of the Government or NPHET.

JP Liz V1 · 30-09-2020 07:07PM

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1311354469809037312

growleaves · 30-09-2020 07:08PM

covid20 wrote: »

Remember what I said about transposed fear...serious exaggeration and paranoid thinking.

Fascism....me arse

See my reply to GooglePlus above.

GooglePlus · 30-09-2020 07:11PM

growleaves wrote: »

Nah mate read the thread.

One poster called for mass arrests.

Another poster called for the Army to control people and use force if necessary.

That's what I'm responding to in my comment, not the actions of the Government or NPHET.

Apologies, I've deleted my post. Should read up before jumping!

tom1ie · 30-09-2020 07:14PM

covid20 wrote: »

Why? we know if we get there we are already f**ked

Well it would be good to know what the breaking point is and then work backwards from that, introducing control measures to prevent the very thing you are protecting, from breaking.

covid20 · 30-09-2020 07:15PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Well it would be good to know what the breaking point is and then work backwards from that, introducing control measures to prevent the very thing you are protecting, from breaking.

We are trying to get the R number negative, it is currently positive.

That is all we need to know.

It is as much about quality of life for 5M people as it is about ICU capacity.

covid20 · 30-09-2020 07:17PM

growleaves wrote: »

See my reply to GooglePlus above.

That isn't fascism, it is called policing.

Newbie20 · 30-09-2020 07:17PM

tom1ie wrote: »

Ffs it’s not a competition!!
The virus will spread to any willing host regardless of what GAA jersey the host wears.

Don’t get your knickers in a twist. People on here keep saying Cork is worse per head of population than Dublin. I am tired of seeing this based on incorrect populations or poor Maths. That’s why I did the figures in response to his post. I would have thought that was obvious if you had read my message and quote properly.

The_Brood · 30-09-2020 07:17PM

growleaves wrote: »

Nah mate read the thread.

One poster called for mass arrests.

Another poster called for the Army to control people and use force if necessary.

That's what I'm responding to in my comment, not the actions of the Government or NPHET.

As a temporary measure to get us back to normal fast, it is 100% preferable to this endless spiral of lockdowns the government has us on now. You actually believe 2 weeks of forced compliance is worse than what is now months going into a year of endless lockdown misery with no end in sight? You honestly prefer this?

niallo27 · 30-09-2020 07:18PM

covid20 wrote: »

We are trying to get the R number negative, it is currently positive.

That is all we need to know.

It is as much about quality of life for 5M people as it is about ICU capacity.

If the r number is negative does that mean people go around curing each other.

covid20 · 30-09-2020 07:19PM

The_Brood wrote: »

As a temporary measure to get us back to normal fast, it is 100% preferable to this endless spiral of lockdowns the government has us on now. You actually believe 2 weeks of forced compliance is worse than what is now months going into a year of endless lockdown misery with no end in sight? You honestly prefer this?

I am with you, I just cannot understand these turkeys voting for christmas.

I want my life back

tom1ie · 30-09-2020 07:19PM

covid20 wrote: »

We are trying to get the R number negative, it is currently positive.

That is all we need to know.

It is as much about quality of life for 5M people as it is about ICU capacity.

That’s not the question I asked though is it.

There’s plenty on here in the lockdown vs no lockdown argument.
I’m merely seeing if we have any reasonable idea at what point the Hse becomes overwhelmed in relation to daily cases.

Ie at 2000 daily cases do we end up with 200 hospital admissions which lead to 20 icu admissions which lead to 2 deaths etc etc.

Goldengirl · 30-09-2020 07:21PM

douglashyde wrote: »

They are. But that wasn't my original point.

In short, we need to distinguish between 'high risk' and those that the epidemiology data says is at risk of entering into hospital / ICU / death and double down efforts to protect these people.

Asthma has spectrum of severity - There are several forms of diabetes - If you have asthma and are 83 you are more likely to get ill than a 45 year old with asthma.

Age, severe asthma & heart disease and obesity are the leading indicators.

Surgical intervention needed in society, not the sledgehammer approach we're currently taking.

Diabetes and hypertension are the 2 main risk factors for severe illness and death with this virus.
Why are you not including them in your list above , lol ?

hetuzozaho · 30-09-2020 07:21PM

Just listened back and typed out:

30 cases from:

- couple go on weekend away and arrive back
- day 1 got to "house party" attended by 8 people
- 6 out of that 8 get the virus
- stayed over night with a family 3/4 of household get the virus
- 3 further social contacts of that household get the virus
- one of the couple day 2 goes to dinner party in town, 4 people, all 4 get the virus and a table adjacent and all 6 get the virus and 4 staff
- the index case (?) with another friend went to a drinks venue to meet a party of four for drinks and all four got the virus

Think the above is something quite a lot are doing.

House party probably needs to be retired as a term. Even in the pubs thread here people were saying how they had a wine and cheese night with some friends and rationalising it. Think people think you need twenty young folk and a heap of cocaine to get it spreading!

caveat emptor · 30-09-2020 07:21PM

Wow pair of d1ckheads. Bet they are popular.

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1311352053030101001?s=21

growleaves · 30-09-2020 07:23PM

covid20 wrote: »

That isn't fascism, it is called policing.

Soldiers shooting at people for not complying with regulations is not how we do policing in this country. We have a history of unarmed policing albeit there are armed units to go after organised crime gangs.

TexasTornado · 30-09-2020 07:23PM

Ireland's approach to this is beyond useless. Either do a proper enforced lockdown like other developed countries have or let it rip through the population. This fannying around is death by a million cuts.

covid20 · 30-09-2020 07:25PM

tom1ie wrote: »

That’s not the question I asked though is it.

There’s plenty on here in the lockdown vs no lockdown argument.
I’m merely seeing if we have any reasonable idea at what point the Hse becomes overwhelmed in relation to daily cases.

Ie at 2000 daily cases do we end up with 200 hospital admissions which lead to 20 icu admissions which lead to 2 deaths etc etc.

Ok I don't know. You did ask for opinions too and I gave mine. Models aren't great, use them but be aware of how limited they are.

Icantthinkof1 · 30-09-2020 07:25PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1311354469809037312

So a positive case infected a whole table of 6 people who were sat adjacent to their table and also infected 4 staff in a restaurant... and they’re saying this virus isn’t airborne?!
I understand how the staff might have picked it up; by handling the infected persons cutlery, plates etc but how the feck did the table adjacent to them all get infected?

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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