Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

redmgar · 30-09-2020 03:35PM

So are we predicting more counties being added to level 3 this Friday?

Lyle · 30-09-2020 03:36PM

Arghus wrote: »

Is there anywhere I can watch proceedings from the Oireachtas committee earlier today?

RTÉ's Periscope has it:

https://www.pscp.tv/w/1eaKbzQAnOYKX

is_that_so · 30-09-2020 03:37PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

Sorry but itis scary. We've a 5% death rate from positive swaps. Out of those 400 postive cases today statistically we're likely to see 20 deaths. This isn't just a flu and it's getting worse.

While we don't want to see deaths the numbers have been very low despite the rapid rise in cases. Doing what we should be doing is the way to make the scary go away!

caveat emptor · 30-09-2020 03:38PM

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Presuming it's old people in ICU.

Where are they catching i wonder?

I heard they are catching while falling off ladders.

MerlinSouthDub · 30-09-2020 03:38PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

Sorry but itis scary. We've a 5% death rate from positive swaps. Out of those 400 postive cases today statistically we're likely to see 20 deaths. This isn't just a flu and it's getting worse.

The mortality rate is more like 0.5%, not 5%.

Happydays2020 · 30-09-2020 03:39PM

Arghus wrote: »

Is there anywhere I can watch proceedings from the Oireachtas committee earlier today?

If you have a laptop or tablet you can watch it from your couch, at the kitchen table or even on the toilet.

https://www.oireachtas.ie/hourly/

https://www.oireachtas.ie/en/oireachtas-tv/

Happydays2020 · 30-09-2020 03:41PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The mortality rate is more like 0.5%, not 5%.

Perhaps even less than that.

Timistry · 30-09-2020 03:44PM

Apparently the annoucement that Cork is going into Lockdown is imminent.

douglashyde · 30-09-2020 03:45PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The mortality rate is more like 0.5%, not 5%.

Here is the latest Epidemiology report from the HSE:
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20200929_Website.pdf

The case fatality rate (those tested and confirmed positive that then die) is .12% - so far lower again. That's 1/1000. Also, we can determine who these 1/1000 are going to be with great accuracy.

When you factor in asymptomatic or mild symptoms not being tested - the IFR (infection mortality rate) will be greatly lower again potentially by many factors.

ACitizenErased · 30-09-2020 03:46PM

Timistry wrote: »

Apparently the annoucement that Cork is going into Lockdown is imminent.

NPHET didn’t meet today.

Always_Running · 30-09-2020 03:47PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

Dashboard has updated - 442 positive swabs, 13247 tests. Positivity rate= 3.3%

Big rise on yesterday positive swab count if tonights cases are reported in a similar way to yesterday we could be looking at over 500 cases this evening? Which would give us the highest reported number since April 26th

Back then we had 770 in hospital and 120 in ICU.

fritzelly · 30-09-2020 03:48PM

Timistry wrote: »

Apparently the annoucement that Cork is going into Lockdown is imminent.

Don't be saying things like that, Corkonians are very touchy

ElTel · 30-09-2020 03:52PM

is_that_so wrote: »

We know that it hasn't worked yet. As they say - still too early to judge, not even two weeks yet. Dublin may well get an extension.

They should graph Dublin's data with the probable date of infection as the x axis for the past few months.

frank8211 · 30-09-2020 03:53PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

I can understand primary students going back, parents working etc.

But there's hardly a need for secondary to go back, they could have easily done it online for at least a month until covid stabilized and they're big enough to mind themselves.

Yes I know someone somewhere doesn't have a good internet connection but that's hardly a reason to put nearly a million kids and their teachers in danger.

On I September:
https://english.radio.cz/schools-open-czech-republic-amid-surge-coronavirus-cases-8690725

KrustyUCC · 30-09-2020 03:54PM

Timistry wrote: »

Apparently the annoucement that Cork is going into Lockdown is imminent.

Where are you getting that information?

Well if Cork is imminant so are the counties above Cork per 100,000

Interesting map here

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1311243263093989376

seamus · 30-09-2020 03:55PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

Sorry but itis scary. We've a 5% death rate from positive swaps. Out of those 400 postive cases today statistically we're likely to see 20 deaths. This isn't just a flu and it's getting worse.

There are many reasons why that 5% is vastly overinflated.

Since 1st July the CFR is 0.6%; 65 deaths out of 10,263 cases.

87% of all of our deaths occurred between 1st April and 31st May.

douglashyde wrote: »

Here is the latest Epidemiology report from the HSE:
https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20200929_Website.pdf

The case fatality rate (those tested and confirmed positive that then die) is .12% - so far lower again. That's 1/1000. Also, we can determine who these 1/1000 are going to be with great accuracy.

That's 0.12% out of the previous two weeks. That's also a little inaccurate because we know the lead time between infection and death is often well over two weeks.

It is however considerably closer to reality than 5%.

Boggles · 30-09-2020 03:56PM

AdamD wrote: »

I actually despair. You think its acceptable that they couldn't be arsed showing up to the covid committee?

Given the level of repeated questioning and the quality of questioning, absolutely. I imagine they have far more important things to deal with then been part of a dog and pony show. Wouldn't you agree?

Given we had politicians ranting and raving much like yourself that they won't attend and then they do are subjected to fringe conspiracy theories and fundamentally stupid questions.

AdamD wrote: »

Swear there's a cohort who would have us rid of accountability and out of a democracy in a matter of months if it made them feel slightly safer from a virus.

No, that's just hyperbolic nonsense.

seamus · 30-09-2020 04:00PM

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Where are you getting that information?

Well if Cork is imminant so are the counties above Cork per 100,000

The main concern about Cork is that some urban areas are way above the county average, but there's no way to lock them down without locking down the whole county.

Dublin is different because the entire county is more population dense - 21 times denser than Cork.

Gruffalux · 30-09-2020 04:00PM

Always_Running wrote: »

Big rise on yesterday positive swab count if tonights cases are reported in a similar way to yesterday we could be looking at over 500 cases this evening? Which would give us the highest reported number since April 26th

Back then we had 770 in hospital and 120 in ICU.

Back then we also likely had 1000s of cases daily. Uncounted. You could hazard 6000 to 7000 cases doing a multiplication of hospital and ICU numbers today versus then.

When numbers of cases go that high again we will also not be measuring and recording them. Our testing regime would have to be accommodating huge numbers to poll those positive results - even at say 20% positive rate we would have to test 30000 - 40000 daily. We can't.
It will be hospital numbers, ICU numbers and death numbers that will determine a response as Autumn goes on.

manofwisdom · 30-09-2020 04:06PM

MerlinSouthDub wrote: »

The mortality rate is more like 0.5%, not 5%.

If it was 5% we would have a full military style lockdown until Christmas 2021..

covid20 · 30-09-2020 04:07PM

seamus wrote: »

The main concern about Cork is that some urban areas are way above the county average, but there's no way to lock them down without locking down the whole county.

Dublin is different because the entire county is more population dense - 21 times denser than Cork.

County borders are just imaginary lines, no reason why they can't just define a zone.

Boggles · 30-09-2020 04:07PM

Gruffalux wrote: »

Back then we also likely had 1000s of cases daily. Uncounted. You could hazard 6000 to 7000 cases doing a multiplication of hospital and ICU numbers today versus then.

When numbers of cases go that high again we will also not be measuring and recording them. Our testing regime would have to be accommodating huge numbers to poll those positive results - even at say 20% positive rate we would have to test 30000 - 40000 daily. We can't.
It will be hospital numbers, ICU numbers and death numbers that will determine a response as Autumn goes on.

The positivity rate will not be allowed go above 10%.

Anything above 5% and you are on your way to losing control.

The rate has doubled in 20 days and that includes a large increase in testing.

If that continues at the end of November we will be hitting 12-15%.

10,000-12000 infections a week.

50-70 hospitalizations a day.

hynesie08 · 30-09-2020 04:08PM

Oranage2 wrote: »

Sorry but itis scary. We've a 5% death rate from positive swaps. Out of those 400 postive cases today statistically we're likely to see 20 deaths. This isn't just a flu and it's getting worse.

Please present any evidence to back up this lunacy.......

wadacrack · 30-09-2020 04:09PM

https://twitter.com/apoorva_nyc/status/1311309459298365447

Coillte_Bhoy · 30-09-2020 04:10PM

normanoffside wrote: »

I said Millions and Billions.
Our Covid Tab is up well over 30 BN Now.

How Much did we spend on commandeering Private Hospital beds that were never used?
How much on buying and fitting out City West as a step down centre for 6 months that was never used?

Why couldn't we have built a few new hospitals and beds and employed more nurses and doctors from those that came back to Ireland to help out?
That would have been a much better long term investment.

We've spend Billions on protecting a shoddy health system from getting overwhelmed instead of actually spending those billions improving it.

I dont necessarily disagree on the above but I was referring to your ridiculous point on advisers etc

normanoffside wrote: »

Millions and Billions wasted on advisors, committees and PR firms

manofwisdom · 30-09-2020 04:12PM

Boggles wrote: »

The positivity rate will not be allowed go above 10%.

Anything above 5% and you are on your way to losing control.

The rate has doubled in 20 days and that includes a large increase in testing.

If that continues at the end of November we will be hitting 12-15%.

10,000-12000 infections a week.

50-70 hospitalizations a day.

A lot more re-tests are done in the last 20 days which will naturally increase the positivity rate.

kenmc · 30-09-2020 04:12PM

covid20 wrote: »

County borders are just imaginary lines, no reason why they can't just define a zone.

So replace one set of well defined and known imaginary lines, with another?

TonyMaloney · 30-09-2020 04:14PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

A lot more re-tests are done in the last 20 days which will naturally increase the positivity rate.

Where are you getting this from?

Boggles · 30-09-2020 04:15PM

manofwisdom wrote: »

A lot more re-tests are done in the last 20 days which will naturally increase the positivity rate.

I'm pretty sure the backlog is being cleared with confirmed infections.

Anyone know the current backlog?

Gruffalux · 30-09-2020 04:16PM

Boggles wrote: »

The positivity rate will not be allowed go above 10%.

Anything above 5% and you are on your way to losing control.

The rate has doubled in 20 days and that includes a large increase in testing.

If that continues at the end of November we will be hitting 12-15%.

10,000-12000 infections a week.

50-70 hospitalizations a day.

I don't know what will be allowed in terms of positive percentages. There is a huge conflict between public health and the economy. My inclination is public health first but I can understand the desperate difficulty re the economy.
Late November is when I have penned mentally for serious response. If I am wrong I will be very glad but I think it is best not to be day dreaming.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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