Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

zerosugarbuzz · 30-09-2020 09:02AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

I would much prefer a strict set of restrictions now in order to allow us to open to near normal at Christmas, even if it is just for two weeks or more.

Economically speaking, would it not make sense to shut down during the lull after summer instead of risking one near the boom of December. If we could get a full swing of consumer spending and near full restaurants/bars at Christmas time, it may be a better financial take in compared to on/off or potentially tight restrictions during the festive period.

Probably factors I'm not taking into account here with my limited understanding of economics but it just seems obvious to me.

With the current policy of lockdowns and restrictions I would say there is zero chance of a normal Christmas. I would say even Paddy’s 2021 is highly unlikely the way things are going now.

Jim_Hodge · 30-09-2020 09:04AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Today there were 320 new cases in NI, and 350+ new cases in ROI. That is almost 700. The population of the Island of Ireland is approx 6 million, the population of the UK is upwards of 65 million, ten times that of the island of Ireland.

320 + 350 is almost 700, multiply that by 10 and we are on a par with the UK.

*The UK had 7000 new cases today

Firstly it's not some sort of competition. Secondly, why add the figures for Northern Ireland to ours, when they are part of the UK and following their Covid measures? That makes no sense whatsoever. And it's about more than one day's figures.
If you want to compare that one day then the UK had the equivalent of us having 525 new cases or 45% more case per capita.

robbiezero · 30-09-2020 09:05AM

zerosugarbuzz wrote: »

With the current policy of lockdowns and restrictions I would say there is zero chance of a normal Christmas. I would say even Paddy’s 2021 is highly unlikely the way things are going now.

Mine will be normal enough.
Visit Wifes family, visit my own family, meet siblings etc. Work Christmas party will probably take a hit which is great also.

podgeandrodge · 30-09-2020 09:27AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Having now watched the piece, McConkey was expecting the usual media fawning over his every word, but chronically ill prepared to be challenged on his view by a well though out argument and showed himself up to be less knowledgeable on his brief than he though he was. Feeney on the other hand had a well thought out position, but it was fundamentally incomplete with no option other than protect the vulnerable, which sounds good in principle but that involves isolating 1 million people for a year or so

Haven't seen the debate yet but, if it is as most are saying, it is a failure of interviewing skill too by RTE in not drawing out their arguments with good questions.

caveat emptor · 30-09-2020 09:36AM

Seems to be getting into care homes in the UK now and is not being reported accurately in the official public health data.
Do we honestly think it won't get into care homes here?

The UK’s largest care home provider has had Covid outbreaks in 70 of its facilities, prompting questions about whether official figures on the virus’s return to social care may be too low.

As care leaders issued fresh warnings about testing delays, HC-One said it had closed one in five of its 329 homes because of outbreaks and that 20 homes had seen new outbreaks in the last fortnight.

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1311191698295468032?s=20

seamus · 30-09-2020 09:44AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

I would much prefer a strict set of restrictions now in order to allow us to open to near normal at Christmas, even if it is just for two weeks or more.

One suggestion I've heard - and it's not a terrible one - is to close the schools in early December, advise people that if they want to see their family on Xmas day then they should isolate as much as possible until 24th December.
Obviously we can't lock down businesses at that stage, they'd be finished.

I don't think the idea is terrible, but my suspicion is that with the kids off and Xmas on the horizon, most people would use that time to socialise more - "so we don't have to try cram it in over Xmas" - rather than staying at home.

MerlinSouthDub · 30-09-2020 09:46AM

seamus wrote: »

One suggestion I've heard - and it's not a terrible one - is to close the schools in early December, advise people that if they want to see their family on Xmas day then they should isolate as much as possible until 24th December.
Obviously we can't lock down businesses at that stage, they'd be finished.

I don't think the idea is terrible, but my suspicion is that with the kids off and Xmas on the horizon, most people would use that time to socialise more - "so we don't have to try cram it in over Xmas" - rather than staying at home.

Yes, I do think it's really important to keep the schools open as much as possible but there is definitely merit in a longer winter break for schools this year. We managed 3 months with schools completely closed so extending the Christmas holidays by, say, 2 weeks in a planned way seems do-able.

Russman · 30-09-2020 09:54AM

quokula wrote: »

. The only way to play this is to keep the numbers low through restrictions, there’s a reason why every single competent government in the world with expert advisors available to them have decided to do this.

I really can't understand why some people think a vast conspiracy or some notion of "control" is more likely than this obvious statement above.
Nobody likes restrictions, nobody wants restrictions, everyone would love to get back to a form of normal, but the knock on effects of letting this thing run wild just make it impossible right now.

30-09-2020 10:11AM

robbiezero wrote: »

Mine will be normal enough.
Visit Wifes family, visit my own family, meet siblings etc. Work Christmas party will probably take a hit which is great also.

Depending on what level your county is at on Christmas day quite a lot of that could be against the rules - level 3 is visitors from 1 household only.

Good luck getting compliance there around Christmas time

mandrake04 · 30-09-2020 10:14AM

wadacrack wrote: »

Agree, the only model that has proven to get society back to the ore covid normality is in Asia.
But this is not possible in Western countries for some reason likely due to just a lack of discipline and understanding of the long term implications of a virus that looks like it will lead to most countries struggling to sustain a healthcare system with enough staff. Sweden took that gamble and early evidence is that they will now harsh restrictions in place.
The immune response to the virus have been very worrying. People want to believe that their normal life's can return but they can't and it will be far worse with no restrictions and greater transmission rates. Economic recovery will be virtually impossible. People will not feel safe. Naive to just look at the IFR and think everything will be ok. In cities in South America their are now bringing in restrictions after the first wave and seem to be taking it more seriously.

You want a good comparison.

NSW been open since start of June, life fairly normal max 20 visitors per house and pubs and restaurants limited to 1 person 4m2 but most have beer gardens and outdoor dining. Case numbers very stable and the whack-a-mole seemed to work after Victoria leaked their mess over the state border, but the key was over 50% of cases were travel related never made it out of the hotel. There’s a cap of 4500 of international arrivals per week, 4 caught today but not much in the community.

Been like that since April https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/nsw

Compared with the Melbourne 800km down the road which is the more European city, unfortunately they took the more European approach and went full retard and didn’t take quarantine seriously.... so then they had to be punished.

Lesson is not to go full retard.

podgeandrodge · 30-09-2020 10:15AM

Some of you may have read about the "12 cases of coronavirus" on crew on Mein Schiff 6 there during the week.

In summary (taken from elsewhere):

"TUI Cruises says Greek authorities have confirmed there aren't Covid-19 cases on its Mein Schiff 6 cruise. The German shipping company, which has been offering cruises in Greece since Sept. 13, says there was a false alarm caused by a report of 12 positive test results among crew members. The crew members later tested negative after three further tests, the company says."

They had tested negative twice — first with a PCR test administered by the cruise line and again with a rapid antigen test conducted by Greek authorities. The results of the third PCR tests ran by the Greek Authorities were also negative.

The Greek Authorities also conducted surfaces testing and all were negative.

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23573-mein-schiff-6-declared-corona-free-after-more-testing.html

Strange stuff - views?

eddie73 · 30-09-2020 10:20AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Having now watched the piece, McConkey was expecting the usual media fawning over his every word, but chronically ill prepared to be challenged on his view by a well though out argument and showed himself up to be less knowledgeable on his brief than he though he was. Feeney on the other hand had a well thought out position, but it was fundamentally incomplete with no option other than protect the vulnerable, which sounds good in principle but that involves isolating 1 million people for a year or so

A longer debate may have given him a chance to air his view.
The kernel of his point was to put across the fact that the measures in situ are those to contain a much more leathal virus than Coronavirus.

The fact that it hasn't turned out to be anywhere as lethal as the authorities thought it would be last March means that the economic and social cost of these types of restrictions simply are not worth it.
\

owlbethere · 30-09-2020 10:20AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

Maybe they just need to sell it as a stay in doors or Christmas is cancelled scenario. The public suck anything up if it's swung the right way on the right media platforms which is something this government hasn't taken on board.

Christmas won't be cancelled. Definitely a lot of nice things about Christmas like Christmas mass and choir, that will be scaled back on. Christmas parties will be very few and nil. It will be what you make of it. Many people and families really had to scale back with Christmas during the last recession. I know a family who don't do presents any more except for the children. All the adults make a donation to charity. I think it's lovely.

Christmas won't be cancelled this year. We will have to continue with the guidelines of no crowds and keeping close contacts low. Christmas shopping will be a nightmare but it will be an excuse to scale back on the fuss so many people make.

This Christmas does have the potential to be very bleak for many people and their families though. From many different perspectives really. In relation to covid, if the numbers keep climbing the way they are, it will seep down into more of the population. The danger is if the hospitals get too full too quickly, hospital treatment may not be available for all and that will probably go for covid and other conditions too. I know many people are happy to write of a section of the population as being old and throw them under the bus but people in their 60s - that's not old. Then there's the whole entire financial mess. The best thing to do is to have covid as low as possible in the communities so that businesses can run as smoothly as possible without closures and hopefully without staff and customers getting sick.

polesheep · 30-09-2020 10:23AM

spookwoman wrote: »

Just remove 77 which is 55-64 age group to make you happy, I said earlier that I did not see 45-54 as old.
How do you know that these "young" people would not have lived to a "ripe old age", do know their medical history and are you a medical expert?. Just because someone may have health problems does not mean they cannot live a full and productive life and life to a "ripe old age". The truth is you seem to lack empathy or understanding of other people's lives and I hope you never have a child that would be "vulnerable" with your views.

You can never be honest or straight, can you? I said 'unlikely' to live to a ripe old age. And you now remove the 77 from your figure that you slyly slipped in earlier. All children are vulnerable.

The_Brood · 30-09-2020 10:26AM

patnor1011 wrote: »

Define total lockdown please. Put some meaning to it please. I am genuinely curious at what do you imagine by it.

Exactly what China did to get rid of the virus, but Ireland for example has no police force to do that even if it wanted to. If everyone stays at home for 2 - 3 weeks and no tourists come in, the virus is gone.

eagle eye · 30-09-2020 10:27AM

Where are we getting all our masks from?
Is there any way we could manufacture them here and use people who are out of work and want to work.
I'm sure there's lots of stuff, to do with this virus, that we could be manufacturing here rather than buying abroad.

30-09-2020 10:29AM

The_Brood wrote: »

Exactly what China did to get rid of the virus, but Ireland for example has no police force to do that even if it wanted to. If everyone stays at home for 2 - 3 weeks and no tourists come in, the virus is gone.

More like 6 to 8 weeks to work through infection cycles in members of households and allow for essential workers to go to work and potentially spread some level of cases

30-09-2020 10:30AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Where are we getting all our masks from?
Is there any way we could manufacture them here and use people who are out of work and want to work.
I'm sure there's lots of stuff, to do with this virus, that we could be manufacturing here rather than buying abroad.

It is probably cheaper to continue to buy from abroad and pay people not to work than to make them here

owlbethere · 30-09-2020 10:31AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Where are we getting all our masks from?
Is there any way we could manufacture them here and use people who are out of work and want to work.
I'm sure there's lots of stuff, to do with this virus, that we could be manufacturing here rather than buying abroad.

I hate the surgical masks from the shops and chemists. I bought a packet and never again. There's a horrible smell. It smells of a roll of new bin bags or nappies. There's a real chemical/manufacturing smell from them.

For day to day, I use fabric masks. I order from an Irish maker on etsy and I love her masks. Glasses don't fog up with her masks and the ear loops are comfortable and there's a nose wire and filter pocket and they are great.

growleaves · 30-09-2020 10:33AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Most people are mostly on the right column, but not holding dogmatically to every statement on that side does not automatically place you on the left. Anyone here in March who suggested the real ifr might be less than 1% was lumped in with the denialists. Everything is not a black and white answer

Yes and I would go further and say it was obvious to any honest person that the ifr would under 1%, or at least there was no compelling reason to believe it wouldn't be.

Just as there's no compelling reason to believe that the after-effects of covid will be radically worse than other viruses, unless or until there is credible evidence that this unusual scenario has come to pass.

The word 'novel' doesn't mean that history began yesterday and somebody's personal ignorance about aspects of routine virus outbreaks doesn't mean that 'we' don't know anything.

Funsterdelux · 30-09-2020 10:37AM

eagle eye wrote: »

Where are we getting all our masks from?
Is there any way we could manufacture them here and use people who are out of work and want to work.
I'm sure there's lots of stuff, to do with this virus, that we could be manufacturing here rather than buying abroad.

Company in Limerick manufacture surgical masks/respirators, though they probabbly have many international customers.

Theyre not taking any new orders till Jan 2021.

30-09-2020 10:40AM

owlbethere wrote: »

I hate the surgical masks from the shops and chemists. I bought a packet and never again. There's a horrible smell. It smells of a roll of new bin bags or nappies. There's a real chemical/manufacturing smell from them.

For day to day, I use fabric masks. I order from an Irish maker on etsy and I love her masks. Glasses don't fog up with her masks and the ear loops are comfortable and there's a nose wire and filter pocket and they are great.

Cloth masks are not as effective as even bog standard surgical masks.

https://bmjopen.bmj.com/content/5/4/e006577

Lidl do packs of 10 for a few euro which are CE marked and I have switched completely to using them and the ones supplied through work, a medical device company, who use one approved for use in cleanrooms which is identical to the Lidl one, rather than cloth ones which I had. For one, speech is not as muffled when using them, but also they are not standardised as they are essentially clothing and not medical supplies

ACitizenErased · 30-09-2020 10:44AM

New study published in the Lancet about COVID on inanimate objects (surfaces etc.)

"We have done two sequential studies(4, 5) seeking to determine on one hand the extent, if any, of contamination of inanimate surfaces in a standard infectious disease ward of a major referral hospital in northern Italy, and on the other hand whether the risk of contamination was higher in emergency rooms and sub-intensive care wards than on ordinary wards. Cleaning procedures were standard. A number of objects and surfaces were swabbed. Remarkably, only the continuous positive airway pressure helmet of one patient was positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. More importantly, attempts to culture the positive swabs on Vero E6 cells were unsuccessful,5 suggesting that patient fomites and surfaces are not contaminated with viable virus. Our findings suggest that environmental contamination leading to SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to occur in real-life conditions, provided that standard cleaning procedures and precautions are enforced. These data would support Goldman's point that the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is less frequent than hitherto recognised."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30678-2/fulltext

Funsterdelux · 30-09-2020 10:49AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

New study published in the Lancet about COVID on inanimate objects (surfaces etc.)

"We have done two sequential studies(4, 5) seeking to determine on one hand the extent, if any, of contamination of inanimate surfaces in a standard infectious disease ward of a major referral hospital in northern Italy, and on the other hand whether the risk of contamination was higher in emergency rooms and sub-intensive care wards than on ordinary wards. Cleaning procedures were standard. A number of objects and surfaces were swabbed. Remarkably, only the continuous positive airway pressure helmet of one patient was positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. More importantly, attempts to culture the positive swabs on Vero E6 cells were unsuccessful,5 suggesting that patient fomites and surfaces are not contaminated with viable virus. Our findings suggest that environmental contamination leading to SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to occur in real-life conditions, provided that standard cleaning procedures and precautions are enforced. These data would support Goldman's point that the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is less frequent than hitherto recognised."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30678-2/fulltext

Does this mean I dont need to sterilise my grapes anymore?

ACitizenErased · 30-09-2020 10:49AM

https://twitter.com/newschambers/status/1311239906472202245?s=20
Some won't like that.

froog · 30-09-2020 10:50AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

New study published in the Lancet about COVID on inanimate objects (surfaces etc.)

"We have done two sequential studies(4, 5) seeking to determine on one hand the extent, if any, of contamination of inanimate surfaces in a standard infectious disease ward of a major referral hospital in northern Italy, and on the other hand whether the risk of contamination was higher in emergency rooms and sub-intensive care wards than on ordinary wards. Cleaning procedures were standard. A number of objects and surfaces were swabbed. Remarkably, only the continuous positive airway pressure helmet of one patient was positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. More importantly, attempts to culture the positive swabs on Vero E6 cells were unsuccessful,5 suggesting that patient fomites and surfaces are not contaminated with viable virus. Our findings suggest that environmental contamination leading to SARS-CoV-2 transmission is unlikely to occur in real-life conditions, provided that standard cleaning procedures and precautions are enforced. These data would support Goldman's point that the chance of transmission through inanimate surfaces is less frequent than hitherto recognised."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30678-2/fulltext

Sounds like the hospital cleaning procedures are effective then.

What an unbelievably dumb conclusion from that paper.

Hector Savage · 30-09-2020 10:52AM

we kept our youngest out of school today, he has a bit of a cough, no fever ... getting a PCR later today ...

Eod100 · 30-09-2020 10:54AM

Doesn't sound great if restrictions are meant to end next week https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1311241946573279233?s=19

Knine · 30-09-2020 10:55AM

polesheep wrote: »

You can never be honest or straight, can you? I said 'unlikely' to live to a ripe old age. And you now remove the 77 from your figure that you slyly slipped in earlier. All children are vulnerable.

No some children are far more vulnerable than others!

Non solum non ambulabit · 30-09-2020 10:55AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

we kept our youngest out of school today, he has a bit of a cough, no fever ... getting a PCR later today ...

If I were you i would not worry. 99.9% certain it is not covid. We are in for a long winter with kids getting the normal and guaranteed coughs, colds and runny noses.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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