Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

ACitizenErased · 29-09-2020 06:36PM

eagle eye wrote: »

See you are trying to suggest I'm a doom monger but I'm not, I'm just a realist. You claimed you are good at math a week ago, if you can't see where we are heading then you really haven't a clue about math.
I notice you didn't say how you'll take it when we do reach 900 per day which is about two weeks away.

I can see a lot of stabilisation in the figures, to be honest.
You still haven’t shared your formula.
It’s almost as if it doesn’t exist.
That’d be shocking, wouldn’t it?

spookwoman · 29-09-2020 06:37PM

polesheep wrote: »

Why are you being disingenuous? Of course it counts. But your post implied that Covid kills young people, when we know, bar rare outliers, it only kills severely compromised young people.

It does kill young people, 127 people under the age of 65 have died who were infected with covid.
How many of those would still be alive if they did not get covid?
We know if someone has an underlying condition that it exasperates the effects of the virus, but those people are still dead. We know some races are more prone to worst effects of the virus are you going to use the same excuse for those deaths as well.

owlbethere · 29-09-2020 06:37PM

Another day with another high number for covid cases.

I remember a few weeks ago when the virus cases were under 100 a day. Then they sat circulating 100 for a while. Then they crept up and sat circulating around 200 a day with some give and take either way but for the most part approximately 200 a day. Now figures have climbed again to 300 and to over 400 and currently they figures are circulating approximately 300 - 350 a day.

Cases are only going to go up from here. The more virus circulating around, the more chances it will seep down into more vulnerable demographics.

Scotland had about 800 cases today. Northern Ireland had about 300 cases today. It's only a matter of time before all of this is going to take off and I reckon we will have a bad winter ahead.

wadacrack · 29-09-2020 06:40PM

The virus is showing signs of stabilization albeit at high rates in France and Spain

https://twitter.com/redouad/status/1310987988751482881

stockshares · 29-09-2020 06:41PM

64% of today's cases are under 45yrs
https://twitter.com/irishexaminer/status/1310995421209284612?s=19

eagle eye · 29-09-2020 06:46PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

I can see a lot of stabilisation in the figures, to be honest. You still havenâ€™t shared your formula. Itâ€™s almost as if it doesnâ€™t exist. Thatâ€™d be shocking, wouldnâ€™t it?

I did put up the formula, it didn't come out right but it's easy to understand it.

29-09-2020 06:50PM

Goldrickssan wrote: »

By the was some people are posting the whole population of Sweden are all going to die in 5 years time from covid complications.

I can state with 100% certainty that the whole population of Sweden will die

ACitizenErased · 29-09-2020 06:52PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I did put up the formula, it didn't come out right but it's easy to understand it.

You put up the equation for exponential growth, not your calculations.
As I said numerous, numerous times before, I'd be happy to look at your figures.

Newbie20 · 29-09-2020 06:54PM

lukas8888 wrote: »

I miss the good old days when we all called it maths.

I think it’s fair to say that anybody caught calling it “Math” should be rounded up and told to feck off back to America.

MerlinSouthDub · 29-09-2020 06:56PM

stockshares wrote: »

64% of today's cases are under 45yrs
https://twitter.com/irishexaminer/status/1310995421209284612?s=19

63% of the population is aged under 45, so this is not very surprising.

29-09-2020 06:57PM

eagle eye wrote: »

I did put up the formula, it didn't come out right but it's easy to understand it.

He did. Was just the basic exponential growth function, which is far too simplistic to model an epidemic in a finite population

Newbie20 · 29-09-2020 06:58PM

fritzelly wrote: »

Cork is 20 per 100k
Dublin is 12

Your Maths is way off here on the Cork numbers. It’s amazing the amount of people on here that look up the population of Cork and see 125,000 or something and take that as the figure. I would have thought that people would realise that figure is far too small for Cork and is just the figure for the city. There are 542,000 people in Cork.
So while your Dublin figure of 12 is about right, Cork is around 7.

Strumms · 29-09-2020 07:00PM

billybonkers wrote: »

https://twitter.com/EddieHoareFG/status/1310697801211351040

I can only imagine, if you were a doctor, nurse, carer, or any medical person, especially front line and seeing that... it must be completely soul destroying , like majorly heartbreaking. Too a family member of a covid victim, alive or dead... the sacrifices of those in the health services, the extras hours, extra risk, extra stress, the impact of all that on their families, .. THIS is how certain sections of society have decided to say thanks...

All I’ve had to do is pay attention, listen, comply with restrictions, no fun certainly, frustrating, boring but no biggie considering the world, happy to do it, all things considered but fûck, people...

29-09-2020 07:04PM

EDit wrote: »

Wouldn’t worry about that. State of writing on RTE website is shockingly poor. I wouldn’t be surprised if it said One more people have died in Covid-19

This 100% plus RTE are the biggest promoter of this circus!! it means if you have crabs, chlamydia, warts virus and the cold sore virus...you died FROM that too
not WITH that.

eagle eye · 29-09-2020 07:09PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

You put up the equation for exponential growth, not your calculations. As I said numerous, numerous times before, I'd be happy to look at your figures.

Yes I used an exponential growth equation because we are dealing with a curve.
I was asked about how I worked out figures and explained that and explained that I was conservative if anything.
You just came back with stupid stuff about numbers moving from week to week so you can't be exact when it's not the case. I told you I averaged out the percentage increase to find a base r which shows I'm being very conservative.
I never said my numbers were definite, I said any change in how we manage our approach to the virus can change things massively.
Thing is we have done SFA to slow it down. 900 per day in two weeks time is where we are headed.

Newbie20 · 29-09-2020 07:09PM

2ndcoming wrote: »

Very hard to compare Dublin + suburbs to anywhere else in Ireland as they are a continuous sprawl of high population residential areas.

All of County Cork (540,000) - Greater Dublin Area (1.9m) would be about
40 - 156.

Cork City and surrounds compared to Dublin City and surrounds would look many times worse.

Talk about misleading. First of all the “Greater Dublin area” has no relevance because all the numbers are given on a county by county basis.

But let’s just say you were counting it. You have used the bordering counties to boost the population to 1.9 million but you kept it at 156 cases so that the ratio with Cork would work out similar. If you are adding on an extra half a million people to Dublin’s population then you have a hell of a lot more cases to add on to the 156 too!!!

Ohmeha · 29-09-2020 07:09PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

And that’s what’s happening, I’m in no doubt now. I won’t be listening to people saying ah sure they had to confirm them crap! We know the positive swabs daily as posted. Just over 200 today but yet a nice juicy 363 to keep the numbers at that level! It’s bugging me! Not one f**king journalist has questioned them not one!

Oh great, juicy number conspiracy theories :rolleyes: Backlogs once they are within a week will not materially affect the weekly range of the 7 day averages and the 7 day averages are showing new cases nationally consistently increasing and is currently at 330.71 which is closer to today's reported figure rather than the swab figure.

Day Month Date ROI 7 Day
Wednesday September 9th 84 150.71
Thursday September 10th 196 165.14
Friday September 11th 211 181.29
Saturday September 12th 159 171.00
Sunday September 13th 255 187.71
Monday September 14th 208 202.86
Tuesday September 15th 357 210.00
Wednesday September 16th 254 234.29
Thursday September 17th 240 240.57
Friday September 18th 253 246.57
Saturday September 19th 274 263.00
Sunday September 20th 396 283.14
Monday September 21st 188 280.29
Tuesday September 22nd 334 277.00
Wednesday September 23rd 234 274.14
Thursday September 24th 324 286.14
Friday September 25th 326 296.57
Saturday September 26th 248 292.86
Sunday September 27th 430 297.71
Monday September 28th 390 326.57
Tuesday September 29th 363 330.71

ACitizenErased · 29-09-2020 07:10PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Yes I used an exponential growth equation because we are dealing with a curve.
I was asked about how I worked out figures and explained that and explained that I was conservative if anything.
You just came back with stupid stuff about numbers moving from week to week so you can't be exact when it's not the case. I told you I averaged out the percentage increase to find a base r which shows I'm being very conservative.
I never said my numbers were definite, I said any change in how we manage our approach to the virus can change things massively.
Thing is we have done SFA to slow it down. 900 per day in two weeks time is where we are headed.

Right, okay.

Widdensushi · 29-09-2020 07:12PM

Ohmeha wrote: »

Oh great, juicy number conspiracy theories :rolleyes: Backlogs once they are within a week will not materially affect the weekly range of the 7 day averages and the 7 day averages are showing new cases nationally consistently increasing and is currently at 330.71 which is closer to today's reported figure rather than the swab figure.

Day Month Date ROI 7 Day
Wednesday September 9th 84 150.71
Thursday September 10th 196 165.14
Friday September 11th 211 181.29
Saturday September 12th 159 171.00
Sunday September 13th 255 187.71
Monday September 14th 208 202.86
Tuesday September 15th 357 210.00
Wednesday September 16th 254 234.29
Thursday September 17th 240 240.57
Friday September 18th 253 246.57
Saturday September 19th 274 263.00
Sunday September 20th 396 283.14
Monday September 21st 188 280.29
Tuesday September 22nd 334 277.00
Wednesday September 23rd 234 274.14
Thursday September 24th 324 286.14
Friday September 25th 326 296.57
Saturday September 26th 248 292.86
Sunday September 27th 430 297.71
Monday September 28th 390 326.57
Tuesday September 29th 363 330.71

It does affect it when three days in a row we are getting numbers from last week

Fr_Dougal · 29-09-2020 07:14PM

If the Taoiseach wasn’t from Cork it would have been locked down by now.

Derek Zoolander · 29-09-2020 07:16PM

Newbie20 wrote: »

Talk about misleading. First of all the “Greater Dublin area” has no relevance because all the numbers are given on a county by county basis.

But let’s just say you were counting it. You have used the bordering counties to boost the population to 1.9 million but you kept it at 156 cases so that the ratio with Cork would work out similar. If you are adding on an extra half a million people to Dublin’s population then you have a hell of a lot more cases to add on to the 156 too!!!

It is misleading and incorrect - that said our census data is from 2016 I believe - I’m imagine actual Dublin population to be a good 5%-10% higher than that so our rates per 100k probably not that accurate either

giveitholly · 29-09-2020 07:17PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

If the Taoiseach wasn’t from Cork it would have been locked down by now.

Why would it? What is the current rate per 100,000 for cork?

ACitizenErased · 29-09-2020 07:17PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

It does affect it when three days in a row we are getting numbers from last week

This.

eagle eye · 29-09-2020 07:19PM

ACitizenErased wrote:

Right, okay.

Showing your intelligence level now I see.

Funsterdelux · 29-09-2020 07:19PM

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

If the Taoiseach wasn’t from Cork it would have been locked down by now.

He'll hit the level 3 Ultra button after he nips home to get some important Brexit documents..

GooglePlus · 29-09-2020 07:20PM

300 odd seeming normal now, 400-500 a day will be normal in a few weeks and so on.

We won't see cases in the 100s again until we're at the far side of this second curve or if there's some sort of anomaly (as the statisticians say in the States).

eagle eye · 29-09-2020 07:20PM

Widdensushi wrote:

It does affect it when three days in a row we are getting numbers from last week

Did we get that the week before as well and the week before that?

29-09-2020 07:23PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

It does affect it when three days in a row we are getting numbers from last week

There's some serious mental gymnastics being performed in an attempt to ignore what is and has been an obvious trend for some time now.

Widdensushi · 29-09-2020 07:23PM

eagle eye wrote: »

Did we get that the week before as well and the week before that?

No, it was obvious that the extra numbers were added in, mainly on a Tuesday and Saturday, for some reason last week that never happened, while it might not be overly distorting todays 7 day average, it will be in a couple of days

29-09-2020 07:27PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

No, it was obvious that the extra numbers were added in, mainly on a Tuesday and Saturday, for some reason last week that never happened, while it might not be overly distorting todays 7 day average, it will be in a couple of days

Any perceived distortion will be minimal and will correct itself as long as we're not reporting historic cases.

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

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