Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

ACitizenErased · 29-09-2020 03:06PM

douglashyde wrote: »

I know we're all saying the same thing in the same way - with broad agreement on this thread.

However am I reading the below right:

See latest 14 day report from HSE here: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20200928_Website.pdf

The case fatality rate is now down to .1% < likely lower still as so many people (over half) are completely asymptomatic.

The CFR for the flu is .1% for context (with vaccines) and effects younger people much worse.

That CFR is incredibly low. Surprising, although it's probably off a bit due to the lag.

ACitizenErased · 29-09-2020 03:06PM

Latest cases by epi date chart.

DebDynamite · 29-09-2020 03:10PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

6 months and money being thrown at the HSE and they come up with 17 extra beds....

They said at the briefing yesterday that not even all 17 beds will be available this year...

JP Liz V1 · 29-09-2020 03:18PM

Bot1 wrote: »

Hi all
How are the guards infocing the level-3 travel restrictions in Dublin?
Or are they enforcing them?

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

What travel restrictions?

I think it was advise only essential travel in and out of Dublin, is there many checkpoints around Dublin?

billybonkers · 29-09-2020 03:23PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Good map here. https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1310932704003870721?s=19

9 potential counties for level 3, all above 60?

What was Dublin at when we went to Level 3?

wadacrack · 29-09-2020 03:24PM

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1310935949568860160

polesheep · 29-09-2020 03:26PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1310935949568860160

It seems like only yesterday that we were being urged not to believe a word that was coming out of Brazil.

CiarraiManc · 29-09-2020 03:26PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1310935949568860160

Exactly. No lasting immunity to covid=no vaccine the sooner people can come to terms the better they'll be mentally

seamus · 29-09-2020 03:27PM

277 positive swabs from 12,617 tests. 2.2%

Really good numbers in context of the last two weeks.

Unless there's a backlog, we're probably looking at ~230 new cases today.

ACitizenErased · 29-09-2020 03:29PM

seamus wrote: »

277 positive swabs from 12,617 tests. 2.2%

Really good numbers in context of the last two weeks.

Unless there's a backlog, we're probably looking at ~230 new cases today.

That's the lowest positivity rate in the past week, give or take?

billybonkers · 29-09-2020 03:31PM

seamus wrote: »

277 positive swabs from 12,617 tests. 2.2%

Really good numbers in context of the last two weeks.

Unless there's a backlog, we're probably looking at ~230 new cases today.

Fingers crossed.

From the 634 yesterday (swabs over 48 hrs previous) we had 390 cases announced. Does that not leave 244 cases in limbo somewhere?

ArthurDayne · 29-09-2020 03:31PM

Strumms wrote: »

Lockdown and restrictions have saved millions Europe-wide.

I haven’t got the most up to date numbers but in earlier in the summer it was reported that 3.4 million people Europewide were saved, due to restrictions...

The experts of the Imperial Collage London back this up..

The report you are referring to is “Estimating the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in Europe” published on 8 June 2020.

First of all, they estimated that an excess of 2.8 million to 3.4 million deaths across 11 countries studied would have occurred if there had been no interventions. None. Nada. The no intervention model also relied on the very dubious presumption that people’s’ behaviour would not change at all — i.e. that even in the midst of a pandemic that posed a threat to older loved ones or otherwise vulnerable loved ones, people would not have changed their behaviour whatsoever. The report acknowledges the shortcomings of this assumption, explaining that “we do not account for changes in behaviour; in reality, even in the absence of government interventions we would expect [the R number] to decrease and therefore would overestimate deaths in the no-intervention model”.

Now that doesn’t make Imperial College researchers deceitful — they explain the limitations of the accuracy of their model in the paper itself. In academic research, models have limitations and it’s very hard for a research paper to make some form of equation to encapsulate the whole myriad of ways behaviour can change in a pandemic. But Mr. Journalist picks the paper up, pulls the coolest figure from it, slaps it in a headline ....and it winds up being presented on places like this and presented, effectively, as fact.

Note also that the paper does not try to model deaths caused by lockdown or restrictions — whether in terms of the neglect of other healthcare issues or deaths correlating to socioeconomic decline (which in fairness will be hard to quantify). There is also no reference that I can see in the paper as to the proportion of excess deaths they predict that would have happened anyway either immediately or in the extremely close future due to other co-morbidities. That’s fine by me, that’s not what the research paper sets out to do — it’s just important that people read these papers in context and with perspective.

eigrod · 29-09-2020 03:33PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

That's the lowest positivity rate in the past week, give or take?

By a distance. It was 2.39% last Tuesday, which is the 2nd lowest in 8 days after today’s.

hmmm · 29-09-2020 03:33PM

douglashyde wrote: »

The CFR for the flu is .1% for context (with vaccines) and effects younger people much worse.

The HSE stats are that 200 to 500 people die of the flu in Ireland every year.

That's .01% of the population. .1% would be 5000 people.

Covid is not the flu.

s1ippy · 29-09-2020 03:35PM

https://twitter.com/MichealMartinTD/status/1310870312746209280?s=20

NB:TNTWIC

PS what a gigantic waste of money.

seamus · 29-09-2020 03:35PM

billybonkers wrote: »

Fingers crossed.

From the 634 yesterday (swabs over 48 hrs previous) we had 390 cases announced. Does that not leave 244 cases in limbo somewhere?

I lost track over the weekend. It was 390 yesterday + 430 on Sunday. So I *think* the backlog is gone.

Happydays2020 · 29-09-2020 03:37PM

Dan O’Brien brings some perspective to ICU numbers (I know it is the upward trend which is important).

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1310704261815304193?s=21

hmmm · 29-09-2020 03:38PM

CiarraiManc wrote: »

Exactly. No lasting immunity to covid=no vaccine the sooner people can come to terms the better they'll be mentally

A vaccine simulates a severe infection which will generate a much more robust immune response. If anything, what we're seeing is that the "herd immunity" isn't going to be possible without a vaccine. Good luck to Sweden.

Ficheall · 29-09-2020 03:38PM

douglashyde wrote: »

However am I reading the below right:

See latest 14 day report from HSE here: https://www.hpsc.ie/a-z/respiratory/coronavirus/novelcoronavirus/surveillance/covid-1914-dayepidemiologyreports/COVID-19_14_day_epidemiology_report_20200928_Website.pdf

The case fatality rate is now down to .1% < likely lower still as so many people (over half) are completely asymptomatic.

Calculating the CFR like that seems questionable, given the lag. Looking at about 3 weeks from infection to fatality gives a 7-day average of 137 cases (7-day average on Sep 7th) to the current 7-day average of 1 death (7-day average on Sep 28th), gives a CFR of 0.7%. Still just hazarding a guess at the length of lag, and it's still a low CFR, of course.

Pablo Escobar · 29-09-2020 03:39PM

rusty cole wrote: »

do you have any underlying conditions?? or define minor lung issues? Asthma?

Historic mild asthma which rarely caused me a problem and I hadn't even had inhalers for 10 years.

For the first few months I would have something resembling a mild asthma attack while just walking. Then it moved to only while exercising. For example, I went for a run last Saturday morning and just after 2km my lungs started to almost refuse oxygen.

So, what I mean by not hindering my quality of life is, at the moment it doesn't cause me problems with day-to-day activities. But it's not exactly getting any better at this point either.

eigrod · 29-09-2020 03:39PM

seamus wrote: »

277 positive swabs from 12,617 tests. 2.2%

Really good numbers in context of the last two weeks.

Unless there's a backlog, we're probably looking at ~230 new cases today.

Hopefully the lowest Tuesday number for a number of weeks. Tuesday has a habit of being the grim reaper day.

Happydays2020 · 29-09-2020 03:41PM

Orla O’Donnell also brings some perspective. She may well now be considered a splitter within her RTÉ group think.

https://twitter.com/orlaodo/status/1310888363776507904?s=21

Pablo Escobar · 29-09-2020 03:42PM

Deleted User wrote: »

My mother in law got pneumonia as a teenager and still suffers after effects 50 years later. Its not a new phenomenon

I've never claimed it was.

I would go on record in saying that you should avoid getting pneumonia too if you can help it!

Happydays2020 · 29-09-2020 03:43PM

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

I've never claimed it was.

I would go on record in saying that you should avoid getting pneumonia too if you can help it!

There is a vaccine.

Benimar · 29-09-2020 03:44PM

seamus wrote: »

277 positive swabs from 12,617 tests. 2.2%

Really good numbers in context of the last two weeks.

Unless there's a backlog, we're probably looking at ~230 new cases today.

There is **potentially** a backlog of up to 261 cases from the last 7 days.

I don't think all 261 are a backlog, but there is the potential for some to come through yet.

Pablo Escobar · 29-09-2020 03:47PM

Happydays2020 wrote: »

There is a vaccine.

Did you mean to quote me?

SeaBreezes · 29-09-2020 03:49PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

To some it's a killer virus, to many it's not.

Yeah. My worries is the non fatal people. We know it can cause long haul covid 150,000 affected in sweden. And only 14% of society immune.

But what worries me is how it will curtail life expectencies. The virus invades CD4 cells (like HIV) but thankfully does not reproduce there. But we also know it kills CD8 cells, which adults dont reproduce.

It also ages Tcells.

This leaves our bodies weakened and less able to fight off cancer, herpes and other viruses. Over time, this can tip the balance between good health and 'a condition' and every time we get this virus it does a little more damage.

Kids, thankfully are ok, they are still producing these cells. The kids that get MIS-C (70 in sweden) they are not sure why, but believe its tied to mature immune systems.

So yeah, not fatal, but a virus to be avoided.

And the paper below is not peer reviewed a similar paper was released a month ago that had to be redacted as it used Tcells in the lab not human ones. This paper uses human cells. Still.awaiting review though

https://twitter.com/fitterhappierAJ/status/1310633093372534790?s=19

Always_Running · 29-09-2020 03:57PM

I presume the German lab test results will be added into today's or tomorrows reported case figures?

ACitizenErased · 29-09-2020 03:59PM

Always_Running wrote: »

I presume the German lab test results will be added into today's or tomorrows reported case figures?

If there's 2000 tests being done there per week then there probably won't be a very big impact. Current positivity rate of ~2-3% means 40-60 additional cases (per week) from the German labs on top of the Irish ones.

Happydays2020 · 29-09-2020 04:00PM

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Did you mean to quote me?

Yes. You said people should avoid getting it and I highlighted there is a vaccine. Perfectly logical follow on I think?

Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

Comments