Covid 19 Part XXIV-37,063 ROI (1,801 deaths) 12,886 NI (582 deaths) (02/10) Read OP

hmmm wrote: »

Perhaps it's those of us who were ready for an 18-month event who can now see the end in sight, where if you were someone who thought it would be over after a few weeks you'd probably be pretty sad right now as reality dawns.

I think this is true. I kind of realised in January that this was going to happen. But in an extremely, extremely detached way. I knew this couldn't not happen but I didn't actually think it would. Once the first reports of a cluster in Italy came out, it was more obvious. Though it still took a few days for it to really sink in. Even once I 100% knew what was about to happen to the point that I was preparing for it in every practical way I could, to the point of having some frank conversations with my 7 year old. There was still a huge part of me that didn't think it could really be happening. I would be at an event or in the park and watching everyone carrying on like normal and feel like I must be 100% mad. My brother, mother and two friends were in the same place as me. Everyone else I spoke to was unaware or in denial. I had so many friends saying in mid-March that it would be a long two weeks before schools would be back!

But I was also keeping abreast of vaccine and treatment research and was quietly confident that we'd have a relatively effective vaccine before too long. So now almost every single person I talk to, talks about this going on forever. Whereas I think we're in for a truly tough winter but one where the end is very clearly in sight. I wouldn't be surprised if we can have St Patrick's Day parades (I don't expect them, but I'm not ruling them out.) I think Easter will be close to normal and I expect safe travel to most places and concerts/festivals to be back on the cards by late summer at the latest.

hmmm wrote: »

If that's the case I can't see the HSE using them. Where I think these rapid tests will be useful is in scenarios where otherwise there would be no tests - e.g. employers testing staff, airports. Currently in some of those situations we miss 100% of any potential Covid infections because there is no testing.

They may be of use in poorer countries that cannot afford mass high complexity PCR testing. It would also be more useful in areas where the prevalence of infection is high. Because, when antigen tests are positive you can be sure they are positive. Its the large amount of false negatives that are the problem.

TonyMaloney wrote: »

What if you were to do multiple rapid tests?

is it 50% each time?

The problem is the sensitivity i.e. the tests ability to detect very small amounts of viral proteins. Doing a rapid test one after another is no good. If you are not shedding much of the virus, taking a sample 20 mins later isnt going to make much of a difference.

Maybe if the test was repeated in a week, the virus would have more time to replicate and produce a positive result. But if this test is to be used in a airport or school setting, that isnt much use.

iguana wrote: »

I think this is true. I kind of realised in January that this was going to happen. But in an extremely, extremely detached way. I knew this couldn't not happen but I didn't actually think it would. Once the first reports of a cluster in Italy came out, it was more obvious. Though it still took a few days for it to really sink in. Even once I 100% knew what was about to happen to the point that I was preparing for it in every practical way I could, to the point of having some frank conversations with my 7 year old. There was still a huge part of me that didn't think it could really be happening. I would be at an event or in the park and watching everyone carrying on like normal and feel like I must be 100% mad. My brother, mother and two friends were in the same place as me. Everyone else I spoke to was unaware or in denial. I had so many friends saying in mid-March that it would be a long two weeks before schools would be back!

But I was also keeping abreast of vaccine and treatment research and was quietly confident that we'd have a relatively effective vaccine before too long. So now almost every single person I talk to, talks about this going on forever. Whereas I think we're in for a truly tough winter but one where the end is very clearly in sight. I wouldn't be surprised if we can have St Patrick's Day parades (I don't expect them, but I'm not ruling them out.) I think Easter will be close to normal and I expect safe travel to most places and concerts/festivals to be back on the cards by late summer at the latest.

I hope you are right.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

I guarantee the effects of lockdown have killed a large amount of people.

I don't think there is any denying that lockdowns had a negative impact on mental health. But lets be honest, what kind of mental health impact was had on the people who live in areas where lockdown couldn't be implemented soon enough. What was it like for the people of Lombardy hearing army trucks on the streets at night removing the dead? What was it like for people in areas where almost everyone lost a loved one? What is the mental health situation for the far, far more people who contracted the virus and experienced many, many months of ill health. Because as someone still not recovered from my March virus, I can tell you the impact on my mental health has been shît. The fear that I wouldn't get better, the inability to exercise or do the things that normally improve my mental state, the fact that I put back on weight. The little bit of PTSD I experienced after I was able to go back to close to my normal exercise levels. Because for quite a few weeks there was this voice in my head asking what the fûcking point was in getting fit and healthy again when a little virus could still hurt me so badly.

Lockdowns aren't good. Few rational people enjoy them. but they are still better than the alternative would have been. And may (probably will) prove to be the least worst option again in the coming months.

Gruffalux wrote: »

True, but isn't it interesting that up to 200 babies this year have not been born pre-term in Ireland. Means they have less chances of health complications. Also I think it brings some needed attention to bear on the crazy routines many engage in to maintain daily working life.
The rush to reinstall ''normality'' is a bit off when some parts of normality are definitely not normal.

When I think of it, there could be an increase of planned sections, might be possible for partner to be present. I know of one exp. mother choosing it as it insures that her partner can be there(first child via section).

I couldnt imagine not being there for my OH

I think I had mentally prepared myself for this to take us to next Spring at least.
What has seriously rattled me is that I honesty thought we wouldn’t have been seeing the numbers we are now so soon.
I thought we would have gotten until around November before we saw these numbers again

iguana wrote: »

I think this is true. I kind of realised in January that this was going to happen. But in an extremely, extremely detached way. I knew this couldn't not happen but I didn't actually think it would. Once the first reports of a cluster in Italy came out, it was more obvious. Though it still took a few days for it to really sink in. Even once I 100% knew what was about to happen to the point that I was preparing for it in every practical way I could, to the point of having some frank conversations with my 7 year old. There was still a huge part of me that didn't think it could really be happening. I would be at an event or in the park and watching everyone carrying on like normal and feel like I must be 100% mad. My brother, mother and two friends were in the same place as me. Everyone else I spoke to was unaware or in denial. I had so many friends saying in mid-March that it would be a long two weeks before schools would be back!

But I was also keeping abreast of vaccine and treatment research and was quietly confident that we'd have a relatively effective vaccine before too long. So now almost every single person I talk to, talks about this going on forever. Whereas I think we're in for a truly tough winter but one where the end is very clearly in sight. I wouldn't be surprised if we can have St Patrick's Day parades (I don't expect them, but I'm not ruling them out.) I think Easter will be close to normal and I expect safe travel to most places and concerts/festivals to be back on the cards by late summer at the latest.

I think there will be a vaccine 'soon' (not going to make unfounded pronouncements like some on here as to when 'soon' is!) but I'm not sure I'd be too hopeful of your timeline.

Any vaccine will be given to the most vulnerable first and that could take time - weeks/months rather than days. Until that happens 'normality' won't come back. I don't believe there is any chance of St Particks Day Parades, even if vaccinations have started. Easter may be relatively normal, as it doesnt necessarily require meetings of large crowds, but concerts could be delayed a bit yet. Holidays should be managable.

I think we will know in 6 months what the timeline is, and that will keep a lot of people going, but I think we are 12 months (minimum) from 'normality'

Icantthinkof1 wrote: »

I think I had mentally prepared myself for this to take us to next Spring at least.
What has seriously rattled me is that I honesty thought we wouldn’t have been seeing the numbers we are now so soon.
I thought we would have gotten until around November before we saw these numbers again

I agree. I always felt this was a minimum 12 months from last March. I did think numbers wouldn't go to these levels till close to Christmas though.

Deleted User wrote: »

It would be 50% each time, so in theory testing twice could increase detection rate to 75%, however sensitivity is dependent on other factors such as quality of sample and point in infection cycle meaning you would likely only get a small benefit in accuracy for a doubling in cost

Not necessarily you are thinking of this the wrong way, you could do 10 tests on an infected patient and they all 10 show negative but 24 hours later do 10 tests and they all be positive. The problem is not the tests themselves failing, but their inability to detect infection consistently in patients due to individual factors with the patient.

The Molecular test has similar draw back in that it takes about 4 days for virus to replicate enough to get a decent sample...but you are testing for virus RNA which will be present in an infected patient.

Rapid test you are testing for a reaction to infection, when you get that reaction can vary, that is if you get a reaction at all and wether that reaction is due to SARS2 or something like a common cold

iguana wrote: »

I think this is true. I kind of realised in January that this was going to happen. But in an extremely, extremely detached way. I knew this couldn't not happen but I didn't actually think it would. Once the first reports of a cluster in Italy came out, it was more obvious. Though it still took a few days for it to really sink in. Even once I 100% knew what was about to happen to the point that I was preparing for it in every practical way I could, to the point of having some frank conversations with my 7 year old. There was still a huge part of me that didn't think it could really be happening. I would be at an event or in the park and watching everyone carrying on like normal and feel like I must be 100% mad. My brother, mother and two friends were in the same place as me. Everyone else I spoke to was unaware or in denial. I had so many friends saying in mid-March that it would be a long two weeks before schools would be back!

But I was also keeping abreast of vaccine and treatment research and was quietly confident that we'd have a relatively effective vaccine before too long. So now almost every single person I talk to, talks about this going on forever. Whereas I think we're in for a truly tough winter but one where the end is very clearly in sight. I wouldn't be surprised if we can have St Patrick's Day parades (I don't expect them, but I'm not ruling them out.) I think Easter will be close to normal and I expect safe travel to most places and concerts/festivals to be back on the cards by late summer at the latest.

Iguana my experience, and outlook, seems to be the exact same as yours. I don't think we'll be quite at the point where we can have parades in March - not unless we get an approved vaccine, and that vaccine is one of the ones the EU has already entered into contracts for, by early January at the latest - but I also see a definite end in sight with a return of near normality by the summer.

I was also very pessimistic about timelines in comparison to my colleagues at the start. Though I admit I was very hopeful that the virus was seasonal, and would not take off for a second wave until November, whereas it seems my timing was out of kilter on that. I think we're in a tough winter. A really tough winter and I expect that I will know more people who have had a tough time with the virus and I really really hope we don't catch it ourselves.

But I do see the end in sight. I do see myself back in the office by May or June next year.

bb1234567 wrote: »

Gathering in crowds outdoors like this may be symptomatic of a growing disregard for restrictions but that gathering itself will not cause any outbreak. Seriously we've had BLM, Dame Lane, South Dublin beaches all had their moment of fame and none caused any noticeable rise in cases

And you can be sure that if there were outbreaks associated with outdoor gatherings, such as the Oliver Plunkett rave, the results would be all over the media. The simple fact seems to be is that it is very difficult to catch the virus outside, even if you are closer than 2m from a person. So groups of teenagers outside, people dancing on a beach or drinking on a street aren't going to make much of a difference.

They do act as very useful distractions for the Permanently Outraged to make sure we don't look too closely at factories, or call centres, or club dinners, or direct provision centres, or some of the many other areas the government might not want people looking too closely at.