Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

Micky 32 · 10-09-2020 02:06PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Yesterday there was over 6,000 recorded covid deaths worldwide.
.

Thankfully still not as high as in May with 8.5k deaths worlwide.

Benimar · 10-09-2020 02:09PM

Blondini wrote: »

Surprise entry into the charts for Waterford.

Yes, but purely anecdotally I've noticed a definite dropping of the guard in recent times. Probably the same everywhere in fairness, but adherence to Guidelines isn't as strong as it was.

odyssey06 · 10-09-2020 02:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

I like listening to this guy. Lots of stats and evidence. It just might be right. Viruses/flus do reduce in potency over time. I think the big problem is it's been over 50 years since their has been anything major in terms of viruses and flu.

The 1956–1958 influenza pandemic, also known as the Asian flu, had a second wave... and the virus seems only to have been brought under control with a vaccine. So if we are saying they reduce in potency over time, I think that's on a factor of years not months:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1957%E2%80%931958_influenza_pandemic

stephenjmcd · 10-09-2020 02:09PM

the merchant wrote: »

196 cases. 107 Dublin. 11 Limerick. 12 Waterford. 7 Kildare.

It'll be interesting to see how it matches up with swab data.

If im not mistaken yestedays cases out 40 or so ? Open to correction here

10-09-2020 02:10PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Yesterday there was over 6,000 recorded covid deaths worldwide.

Hospitalisations, ICU and deaths are rising rapidly in Spain, and France is a couple of weeks behind.
And we're X amount of weeks behind them.

In the world!! Some regions are only going through what we had in mar/May now. Disagree with Spain and France. Lots of cases very few deaths. Worldometers does not lie. You do know people die of colds flu every year? This is not the same in Europe as Mar/April. Spanish icu doctor said recently he thinks vaccine is possibly a total waste of time as threat of covid in his region is largely over. Cases Yes, serious illness No.

Downlinz · 10-09-2020 02:10PM

JDD wrote: »

One thing I have been thinking about:

If Covid was circulating in December/January, would that be the equivalent to now? We likely had deaths back then from it, but because ICUs weren't overwhelmed the pattern probably wasn't picked up and the deaths may have been put down as pnuemonia? I don't know how much testing they do post-death?

If the situation in December/January is the equivalent to now, could we be looking at a spike in October, similar to our spike in March? I get the feeling that everyone is expecting this wave to go exactly the same way as the March one, with an exponential increase in deaths after two weeks similar to what happened in March.

Isn't it possible we are in the equivalent of December/January? That is, if you accept that Covid was circulating earlier than March.

I think this is likely. We had very restrictive criteria for tests in March/April so never saw the full picture of what was happening as only the most severe cases were identified.

Daily cases were probably in the thousands rather than hundreds with the lockdown bringing them back to very low numbers.

Restrictions and behaviour changes will at least mean it won't escalate out of control rapidly like it did in March/April but we nonetheless appear to be on a much slower course to the same place.

Benimar · 10-09-2020 02:10PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

It'll be interesting to see how it matches up with swab data.

If im not mistaken yestedays cases out 40 or so ? Open to correction here

There was a variance of 72 yesterday - 156 v 84.

stephenjmcd · 10-09-2020 02:11PM

Benimar wrote: »

There was a variance of 72 yesterday - 156 v 84.

Cheers, dont know why I had 40 in my head

Oranage2 · 10-09-2020 02:12PM

the merchant wrote: »

196 cases. 107 Dublin. 11 Limerick. 12 Waterford. 7 Kildare.

Wow just wow. I wonder what the it's an outlier camp says about this.

Are people okay with these constant rising numbers?

We've cases rise 200% from just 6 weeks. We've hospitalizations increase 105% percent. We're starting to see deaths again.

And no we don't have 50 people in hospital with broken legs that just happened to have Covid.

I see it's grand if you're not over weight has become the new reasoning for people to behave how they like.

Totally ridiculous at this stage.

TonyMaloney · 10-09-2020 02:13PM

Deleted User wrote: »

In the world!! Some regions are only going through what we had in mar/May now. Disagree with Spain and France. Lots of cases very few deaths. Worldometers does not lie. You do know people die of colds flu every year? This is not the same in Europe as Mar/April. Spanish icu doctor said recently he thinks vaccine is possibly a total waste of time as threat of covid in his region is largely over. Cases Yes, illness No.

you've completely neglected hospitalisations and ICU figures.

I'm not sure of who the doctor you're talking about is, but he's definitely not working in Madrid.

caveat emptor · 10-09-2020 02:13PM

the merchant wrote: »

196 cases. 107 Dublin. 11 Limerick. 12 Waterford. 7 Kildare.

So we know that the incubation period on average is 6 days. The test turn around is 1 day.What we don't know is how many days someone has symptoms before deciding they need a test etc. We know the data is 2 days old. So those people today on average got infected at least 9 days ago.

Philip Nolan said yesterday.

https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1303746231429144584?s=20

Even if everyone changes behaviour today cases will probably keep rising. Will be interesting to see if it does double or if behaviour can put a hand brake on it.

kevin306 · 10-09-2020 02:15PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Yesterday there was over 6,000 recorded covid deaths worldwide.

Hospitalisations, ICU and deaths are rising rapidly in Spain, and France is a couple of weeks behind.
And we're X amount of weeks behind them.

I think this response is over the top. They are rising, which everyone should expect to happen coming into the fall. I'm not sure you can say rapid. The key metric to use is ICU numbers/deaths. Fear mongering about daily cases is pointless, if we were to test for daily flue figures I'm guessing they would be enormous. One insightful graph in the video referenced the UK opening of pups and the obvious non mask wearing of that. In the two months prior there was no increase in deaths. When you think of the amount of social interactions that would have generated it is interesting that the death rate continued to drop rather than increase. I'm certainly not negating the impact on the lives this coronavirus has had on people, I'm just suggesting there is an alternate angle to be investigated at the very least.

TonyMaloney · 10-09-2020 02:16PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

you've completely neglected hospitalisations and ICU figures.

I'm not sure of who the doctor you're talking about is, but he's definitely not working in Madrid.

The number of hospital beds occupied by coronavirus patients in the Madrid region has doubled in three weeks. If the regional government’s new restrictions on social activities fail to curb contagion, some hospitals in the region may be overwhelmed within weeks, experts warn.

On August 20, the first day that the central Health Ministry published figures on hospital occupancy, coronavirus patients made up 9.4% of admissions. On September 8, that figure was 19%. The spike in the number of Covid-19 patients in intensive care units (ICUs) has been even more significant, rising from 126 to 288. This rise is above the average in Spain, where hospital occupancy has increased from 4.3% to 7.4%, and the number of ICU patients has gone from 522 to 1,051, according to the Health Ministry report from Monday.

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-09-09/spain-reports-nearly-9000-new-coronavirus-cases.html

Gael23 · 10-09-2020 02:17PM

the merchant wrote: »

196 cases. 107 Dublin. 11 Limerick. 12 Waterford. 7 Kildare.

Is this what is to be reported today?

10-09-2020 02:18PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

What had we got, 4 deaths announced all last month (some historic) and 3 recent ones announced in a single day yesterday?

It's akin to America a few months ago... Cases rising and deaths dropping..... We seen how that panned out.
And they were mass testing also, so it wasn't a case of just picking up asymptomatic cases, those cases translated into deaths.

Your comparing USA with its size, different climates etc. months ago to a small country that had it's initial wave 6 months ago. Compare new York to ireland. That is comparable both regions deaths are on the floor. If we have current Spanish cases and death rates the same as March we would be in trouble. Can't see your logic to be honest. Your not looking at the big picture. Where is your reasoning to all this?

CalamariFritti · 10-09-2020 02:18PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Think this proves it's getting weaker. Loads of cases throughout Europe but very little illness. Yes of course just as deadly as March with icus filled with people in their 30s and 40s. Who are you kidding :pac::pac:. This virus is slowly becoming like any other other cold and flu that can kill the most vulnerable in society every winter (500 deaths a year) as is the nature of things. We under reacted in Feb Mar and we are possibly too anxious now in September as the mental trauma of March April May is still ingrained in our memory. Leo was the first politician in this country to call it out. He has called things early before. He is an intelligent person in my book and probably the best politician of his generation. I think history books will treat him well thus far. We may now be over reacting. We need to follow the evidence and science. Until hospitals/icu's start increasing dramatically this thing looks very much over in terms of a major threat to the general population. Will there still be cases yes. Will there still be covid deaths yes. But at what level and at what risk to Joe public?

I don't know. I'm generally in the 'we overreacted' and 'anti bullsh1t' (of which there is quite a lot) camp, but I wouldnt count my chickens just yet.

While I believe we overreacted in March I think we really had no idea of the total spread then and probably even now we don't.

I think the virus had started earlier and gone much farther than we thought in February and March. I think a lot more people than we ever thought had already been exposed to the virus. Because I'd say the number of people who dont react to it at all or people without symptoms is much bigger than we even think now.
Leading in March to a vast overestimation of severity and fatality rates. Because we only tested people with symptoms and we went with case fatality rates.

But the same circumstances may lead to us underestimating the virus now. Because we're now testing everyone not just symptomatic people we see a truer fatality rate and may get the idea this thing is over, but its quite possible that we simply are now where we were in December/January or even earlier.

I'm not saying this is true and I hope it isn't but I wouldnt rule it out just yet.

Having said that I still don't think that we will see similar to what happened in March and April. Treatment/medication is much better now and we're obviously still having quite a number of restrictions and precautions in place. But I dont think the virus has necessarily weakened or its over.

GooglePlus · 10-09-2020 02:21PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

They weren’t wrong in the presser yesterday when they said Dublin is driving the case numbers...

I might be mistaken in my observation but over a few of your posts, I get the impression that you relish in the fact that case numbers are higher in Dublin?

Anyway, that's been the case from day one and will always be the case given the population but it won't take much for it to spill over elsewhere.

bodhrandude · 10-09-2020 02:23PM

rusty cole wrote: »

silly question maybe but they they give the mean/median age for the 4 deceased this week? I know they always did along with any indication of underlying health conditions, anyone know?

I would like to know this too.

amadangomor · 10-09-2020 02:24PM

Son - 2YO was diagnosed with a cold at weekend. He caught it in creche.

Typical symptoms of cold. Rang out of hours Doctor and they took him in and happy it was a cold. I've now caught the cold from him.

Have similar symptoms as him without the cough though. Safe for me to go to work?

joeguevara · 10-09-2020 02:27PM

amadangomor wrote: »

Son - 2YO was diagnosed with a cold at weekend. He caught it in creche.

Typical symptoms of cold. Rang out of hours Doctor and they took him in and happy it was a cold. I've now caught the cold from him.

Have similar symptoms as him without the cough though. Safe for me to go to work?

Firstly what are symptoms of a cold?

Has the child been tested and what is outcome?

What are your symptoms?

If you have symptoms of Covid, then isolate until you know.

Gael23 · 10-09-2020 02:28PM

amadangomor wrote: »

Son - 2YO was diagnosed with a cold at weekend. He caught it in creche.

Typical symptoms of cold. Rang out of hours Doctor and they took him in and happy it was a cold. I've now caught the cold from him.

Have similar symptoms as him without the cough though. Safe for me to go to work?

Not until your tested

Howard the Duck · 10-09-2020 02:28PM

amadangomor wrote: »

Have similar symptoms as him without the cough though. Safe for me to go to work?

You should ring your GP, I myself would not go in just to be safe

10-09-2020 02:29PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

I don't know. I'm generally in the 'we overreacted' and 'anti bullsh1t' (of which there is quite a lot) camp, but I wouldnt count my chickens just yet.

While I believe we overreacted in March I think we really had no idea of the total spread then and probably even now we don't.

I think the virus had started earlier and gone much farther than we thought in February and March. I think a lot more people than we ever thought had already been exposed to the virus. Because I'd say the number of people who dont react to it at all or people without symptoms is much bigger than we even think now.
Leading in March to a vast overestimation of severity and fatality rates. Because we only tested people with symptoms and we went with case fatality rates.

But the same circumstances may lead to us underestimating the virus now. Because we're now testing everyone not just symptomatic people we see a truer fatality rate and may get the idea this thing is over, but its quite possible that we simply are now where we were in December/January or even earlier.

I'm not saying this is true and I hope it isn't but I wouldnt rule it out just yet.

Having said that I still don't think that we will see similar to what happened in March and April. Treatment/medication is much better now and we're obviously still having quite a number of restrictions and precautions in place. But I dont think the virus has necessarily weakened or its over.

Time will tell...

I will do as I'm asked and adhere to all guidelines, but to listen to such negativity at the moment even on rte. For the sake of your mental health it is not worth it. Last week's late late show was the worst I ever witnessed and I would never have given out about it previously.

Nobody 100 per cent truly knows what is going to happen.Our government is being conservative which it should be but that does not mean we are heading into some catasrophie.

stephenjmcd · 10-09-2020 02:30PM

amadangomor wrote: »

Son - 2YO was diagnosed with a cold at weekend. He caught it in creche.

Typical symptoms of cold. Rang out of hours Doctor and they took him in and happy it was a cold. I've now caught the cold from him.

Have similar symptoms as him without the cough though. Safe for me to go to work?

nope, we've all been told as winter comes even if its just a cold you don't go near work until its cleared up.

It'll essentially be socially unacceptable to be out with a cold

ShyMets · 10-09-2020 02:31PM

amadangomor wrote: »

Son - 2YO was diagnosed with a cold at weekend. He caught it in creche.

Typical symptoms of cold. Rang out of hours Doctor and they took him in and happy it was a cold. I've now caught the cold from him.

Have similar symptoms as him without the cough though. Safe for me to go to work?

My Daughter had a cold over the weekend. Runny nose, sneezing and slight cough. She's perfectly fine now.

I developed the same symptoms on Monday. Largely gone on but I'm going to continue isolating for the next couple of days just to be sure

manofwisdom · 10-09-2020 02:32PM

GooglePlus wrote: »

I might be mistaken in my observation but over a few of your posts, I get the impression that you relish in the fact that case numbers are higher in Dublin?

Anyway, that's been the case from day one and will always be the case given the population but it won't take much for it to spill over elsewhere.

Not always Dublin spiked up in case loads the last few weeks before that they were below a number of counties in the 14 day incidence rate.

ElTel · 10-09-2020 02:34PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

There's a few lab specialists on here, maybe they can say how many cycles they do for a test. My understanding of the video is the 78 days is the maximum days they could get a positive from a sample. Which is probably just running an unrealistic number of cycles on the sample.
There's alot more to PCR testing than just slapping it In a machine and waiting.

This is a UK article, didn't they have issues with the home samples not having enough RNA on them to conduct the test (due to being taken by the person and not someone trained) Maybe they increase the cycles to compensate for a bad collection samples?

For me it's the non use of the cycle threshold number.
Does the metadata for Ct number reveal anything useful.

My understanding (and open to correction) is that it's very hard to culture the virus with a Ct number > 30. This number corresponds to a certain concentration of the virus.

A "rough guide" is the "step of 3" so a PCR test result with a Ct of 30 has X10 more virus than one with 33 and X100 more than 36.

So for example say a positive with a Ct of 37 has 40 close contacts, would it be more effective to re-test them again a few days later and see if the Ct is higher? If it's lower, can we be confident that they're past the infectious period?

10-09-2020 02:35PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

you've completely neglected hospitalisations and ICU figures.

I'm not sure of who the doctor you're talking about is, but he's definitely not working in Madrid.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.youtube.com/watch%3Fv%3DSwlkumcRf6w&ved=2ahUKEwjRmd3A2d7rAhUlShUIHaMDAQsQ3e4CMAV6BAgJECA&usg=AOvVaw2CnzsgOiYz4CONJW40s8Vu

I think you just want to believe it's the same as March April. It's not and won't be:rolleyes:.

amadangomor · 10-09-2020 02:35PM

joeguevara wrote: »

Firstly what are symptoms of a cold?

Has the child been tested and what is outcome?

What are your symptoms?

If you have symptoms of Covid, then isolate until you know.

Doctor at out of hours service were happy when I took son in Sunday morning. He had a cough and runny nose, maybe sore throat.

I have a runny nose, sore throat and inner ears. I had suspected Covid in April that left me with asthma (Test was cancelled due to lack capacity at that time)

This is totally different and feels like a classic head cold. Covid is more an infection of the lower respiratory tract.

patnor1011 · 10-09-2020 02:36PM

mandrake04 wrote: »

You should write a strongly worded letter to the Irish government explaining that Ireland only really had 3000 cases, the other 27,000 were not infected at all.

Since it is your idea go for it. I do not care.

Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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