Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

Agent Smith · 10-09-2020 01:20PM

Any sign on todays figures? I'd be interested esp because we're coming up onto schools being back 10 days

Widdensushi · 10-09-2020 01:20PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

Careful now, you'll have dubs driving down to cork for a test to inflate the numbers!
#makecorkred

Obviously due to staycations I never saw as many Dublin people in Cork as this year, yet numbers stayed down. I question how transferable this is in a casual meeting of people in shops and talking to people outside. Social distancing works.

naughtysmurf · 10-09-2020 01:26PM

Gael23 wrote: »

BCG is no longer available in Ireland as far as I’m aware

BCG is only up to 80% effective against TB for up to 15 years after vaccination & loses its effectiveness over time so may be the reason so many younger infected have mild / no symptoms, vaccinating adults I've read somewhere doesn't seem to be as successful

Wolf359f · 10-09-2020 01:29PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

Obviously due to staycations I never saw as many Dublin people in Cork as this year, yet numbers stayed down. I question how transferable this is in a casual meeting of people in shops and talking to people outside. Social distancing works.

I was actually surprised with the low number of clusters in pubs/restaurants and there was a few where it was just limited to staff only. Likewise supermarkets, where you would expect clusters, especially earlier on, but very few if any occured.
It could mainly be down to people meeting in houses and letting their guard down. It's easier when you're with strangers outside, you naturally keep your distance and be careful, but at home, it's easy to relax too much.

I'd love to know why it's mainly rising in Dublin, driven by house to house transmission? Surely the rest of the country would still be having home visitors. More communions/confirmations happening in Dublin compared to the rest of the country?

kevin306 · 10-09-2020 01:30PM

nannerbenahs wrote: »

Here is a really good statistical analysis of the current situation by Ivor Cummins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac&feature=emb_logo

Watched this earlier, first time hearing of this guy. Be interested to hear peoples thoughts on his analysis. To be fair must of what he says he is using stats to back up, but yes stats can be made to back up either side of the story. He is basically saying lockdown/mask wearing has down little to reduce the impact of the virus and the virus is basically following a trend that all virus do. He uses Sweden as evidence for this. The one thing he doesn't mention, in this video at least, is the possible co-morbidity's associated with contracting the virus. Just interesting to hear a different approach to the mainstream narrative being fed by the media.

10-09-2020 01:35PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

It's nothing to do with being less potent, it's still as deadly but has taken out the low hanging fruit.
Posted it earlier but we'll worth a watch to hear what's happening now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4WdzMVekUBU

Think this proves it's getting weaker. Loads of cases throughout Europe but very little illness. Yes of course just as deadly as March with icus filled with people in their 30s and 40s. Who are you kidding :pac::pac:. This virus is slowly becoming like any other other cold and flu that can kill the most vulnerable in society every winter (500 deaths a year) as is the nature of things. We under reacted in Feb Mar and we are possibly too anxious now in September as the mental trauma of March April May is still ingrained in our memory. Leo was the first politician in this country to call it out. He has called things early before. He is an intelligent person in my book and probably the best politician of his generation. I think history books will treat him well thus far. We may now be over reacting. We need to follow the evidence and science. Until hospitals/icu's start increasing dramatically this thing looks very much over in terms of a major threat to the general population. Will there still be cases yes. Will there still be covid deaths yes. But at what level and at what risk to Joe public?

drunkmonkey · 10-09-2020 01:35PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

I'd love to know why it's mainly rising in Dublin, driven by house to house transmission? Surely the rest of the country would still be having home visitors. More communions/confirmations happening in Dublin compared to the rest of the country?

Possibly it's not spreading in homes as much as we think, let's say your kid had a head cold and they tested positive for covid today, they might actually have a head cold but covid 11 weeks ago. Our tests aren't necessarily picking up active covid.
It's pretty impossible to see what's happening in real time and how active it actually is.

Tij da feen · 10-09-2020 01:39PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Possibly it's not spreading in homes as much as we think, let's say your kid had a head cold and they tested positive for covid today, they might actually have a head cold but covid 11 weeks ago. Our tests aren't necessarily picking up active covid.
It's pretty impossible to see what's happening in real time and how active it actually is.

That's not how the Covid test works. It will only detect an Active infection. An antibody test would pick up a previous infection.

drunkmonkey · 10-09-2020 01:42PM

Tij da feen wrote: »

That's not how the Covid test works. It will only detect an Active infection. An antibody test would pick up a previous infection.

Were doing PCR testing as far as I'm aware, picks up covid up to 78 days. Go to 14.14 in the video above.

10-09-2020 01:47PM

nannerbenahs wrote: »

Here is a really good statistical analysis of the current situation by Ivor Cummins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac&feature=emb_logo

I like listening to this guy. Lots of stats and evidence. It just might be right. Viruses/flus do reduce in potency over time. I think the big problem is it's been over 50 years since their has been anything major in terms of viruses and flu. We were in a sort of bubble with most of us to young to remember it. I heard of stories were bodies were stacked up in USA during 1918. The person that told me this story is a man over 70 and when he was a young man he heard the story from someone who witnessed that. He thought your man was making it up. It's been such a shock to the system as we thought we were invincible. We are not masters of the universe, none of us are getting out of here alive. Covid has taught us to slow down a bit and live in the moment more.

douglashyde · 10-09-2020 01:47PM

Excellent video. I shared him a few days back and he was labeled a 'a quack / stirrer'. I would genuinely be interested to see a rebuttal to was he presenting.

Pulls data from a mix of sourcing inc. several peer reviewed studies.

Covers in detail why countries are thankfully seeing extremely low MR% / hospitalisation even as some countries & economies have stay opened / reopened.

nannerbenahs wrote: »

Here is a really good statistical analysis of the current situation by Ivor Cummins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac&feature=emb_logo

Widdensushi · 10-09-2020 01:49PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Were doing PCR testing as far as I'm aware, picks up covid up to 78 days. Go to 14.14 in the video above.

Where does that leave the climbing doctor that doesn't mention a positive test, surely he was tested with 2 months?

the merchant · 10-09-2020 01:50PM

196 cases. 107 Dublin. 11 Limerick. 12 Waterford. 7 Kildare.

Non solum non ambulabit · 10-09-2020 01:51PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Possibly it's not spreading in homes as much as we think, let's say your kid had a head cold and they tested positive for covid today, they might actually have a head cold but covid 11 weeks ago. Our tests aren't necessarily picking up active covid.
It's pretty impossible to see what's happening in real time and how active it actually is.

That is a real danger now. Categorising people with dead virus in their bodies as new cases is totally skewing the data and adversely impacting our response. We need a test that is more accurate in spotting active virus

Seamai · 10-09-2020 01:51PM

the merchant wrote: »

196 cases. 107 Dublin. 11 Limerick. 12 Waterford. 7 Kildare.

Any deaths?

GooglePlus · 10-09-2020 01:51PM

the merchant wrote: »

196 cases. 107 Dublin. 11 Limerick. 12 Waterford. 7 Kildare.

Jaysus

caveat emptor · 10-09-2020 01:53PM

Really need better and more timely data. It’s two days old here. When we decide whether we cross the road or not, we look and listen. That is not possible if they don’t tell you which schools have outbreaks or which areas have high numbers of community transmission.

https://twitter.com/who/status/1278425206965653504?s=21

Non solum non ambulabit · 10-09-2020 01:54PM

douglashyde wrote: »

Excellent video. I shared him a few days back and he was labeled a 'a quack / stirrer'. I would genuinely be interested to see a rebuttal to was he presenting.

Pulls data from a mix of sourcing inc. several peer reviewed studies.

Covers in detail why countries are thankfully seeing extremely low MR% / hospitalisation even as some countries & economies have stay opened / reopened.

There is a huge reluctance in some people to step back and actually think about what is happening. Very simply less people are dying but for reason this is not getting through to people that are obsessed with cases.

ACitizenErased · 10-09-2020 01:55PM

They weren’t wrong in the presser yesterday when they said Dublin is driving the case numbers...

Wolf359f · 10-09-2020 01:56PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Were doing PCR testing as far as I'm aware, picks up covid up to 78 days. Go to 14.14 in the video above.

There's a few lab specialists on here, maybe they can say how many cycles they do for a test. My understanding of the video is the 78 days is the maximum days they could get a positive from a sample. Which is probably just running an unrealistic number of cycles on the sample.
There's alot more to PCR testing than just slapping it In a machine and waiting.

This is a UK article, didn't they have issues with the home samples not having enough RNA on them to conduct the test (due to being taken by the person and not someone trained) Maybe they increase the cycles to compensate for a bad collection samples?

drunkmonkey · 10-09-2020 01:57PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

That is a real danger now. Categorising people with dead virus in their bodies as new cases is totally skewing the data and adversely impacting our response. We need a test that is more accurate in spotting active virus

The only active case worth worrying about are Symptomatic ones from what i'm deducing from HSE guidelines to Scientific studies.
You've a narrow window to catch those so again pretty hard to thing to do, our testing regime isn't compatible with distinguish who's active and who's not.

TonyMaloney · 10-09-2020 01:58PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

There is a huge reluctance in some people to step back and actually think about what is happening. Very simply less people are dying but for reason this is not getting through to people that are obsessed with cases.

Yesterday there was over 6,000 recorded covid deaths worldwide.

Hospitalisations, ICU and deaths are rising rapidly in Spain, and France is a couple of weeks behind.
And we're X amount of weeks behind them.

Tij da feen · 10-09-2020 01:58PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Were doing PCR testing as far as I'm aware, picks up covid up to 78 days. Go to 14.14 in the video above.

Interesting, I have found a source for this:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151379/

This case demonstrated that the virus shedding might continue even after clinical resolution and seroconversion. In addition, although SARS-CoV-2 virus could not be isolated after the 18th day of symptom onset, the positive RT-PCR results continued for more than 60 days. Because of the long interval between these two time points, it might be reasonable to infer that a small amount of viable virus, yet could not be detected by virus culture, remained present after the 18th day of disease course and last for more days. This implies the contagious period of COVID-19 might last more than one week after “clinical recovery”. Many of COVID-19 patients in Taiwan also had similar findings (unpublished data). Such prolonged virus shedding was also observed among asymptomatic pediatric patients in fecal specimen.7 However, this needs more studies to clarify since it would be a major issue in realizing and controlling the COVID-19 epidemics.

An important thing to note with this though is there are no larger, wide-scale studies that make this a fully valid claim to make. Based on the majority of evidence, the max period a positive will be thrown is 7-10 days after exposure (hence why we're looking at reducing the quarantine period to 10 days).

JDD · 10-09-2020 02:00PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

There is a huge reluctance in some people to step back and actually think about what is happening. Very simply less people are dying but for reason this is not getting through to people that are obsessed with cases.

One thing I have been thinking about:

If Covid was circulating in December/January, would that be the equivalent to now? We likely had deaths back then from it, but because ICUs weren't overwhelmed the pattern probably wasn't picked up and the deaths may have been put down as pnuemonia? I don't know how much testing they do post-death?

If the situation in December/January is the equivalent to now, could we be looking at a spike in October, similar to our spike in March? I get the feeling that everyone is expecting this wave to go exactly the same way as the March one, with an exponential increase in deaths after two weeks similar to what happened in March.

Isn't it possible we are in the equivalent of December/January? That is, if you accept that Covid was circulating earlier than March.

Seamai · 10-09-2020 02:00PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

They weren’t wrong in the presser yesterday when they said Dublin is driving the case numbers...

27% of the population and over 54% of today's cases.

drunkmonkey · 10-09-2020 02:02PM

Wolf359f wrote: »

There's a few lab specialists on here, maybe they can say how many cycles they do for a test.

Yes it would be very worthwhile information if someone had inside knowledge. Surprised if we're not close to the same page as the UK though.

Wolf359f · 10-09-2020 02:02PM

TonyMaloney wrote: »

Yesterday there was over 6,000 recorded covid deaths worldwide.

Hospitalisations, ICU and deaths are rising rapidly in Spain, and France is a couple of weeks behind.
And we're X amount of weeks behind them.

What had we got, 4 deaths announced all last month (some historic) and 3 recent ones announced in a single day yesterday?

It's akin to America a few months ago... Cases rising and deaths dropping..... We seen how that panned out.
And they were mass testing also, so it wasn't a case of just picking up asymptomatic cases, those cases translated into deaths.

drunkmonkey · 10-09-2020 02:03PM

Tij da feen wrote: »

Interesting, I have found a source for this:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7151379/

This case demonstrated that the virus shedding might continue even after clinical resolution and seroconversion. In addition, although SARS-CoV-2 virus could not be isolated after the 18th day of symptom onset, the positive RT-PCR results continued for more than 60 days. Because of the long interval between these two time points, it might be reasonable to infer that a small amount of viable virus, yet could not be detected by virus culture, remained present after the 18th day of disease course and last for more days. This implies the contagious period of COVID-19 might last more than one week after “clinical recovery”. Many of COVID-19 patients in Taiwan also had similar findings (unpublished data). Such prolonged virus shedding was also observed among asymptomatic pediatric patients in fecal specimen.7 However, this needs more studies to clarify since it would be a major issue in realizing and controlling the COVID-19 epidemics.

An important thing to note with this though is there are no larger, wide-scale studies that make this a fully valid claim to make. Based on the majority of evidence, the max period a positive will be thrown is 7-10 days after exposure (hence why we're looking at reducing the quarantine period to 10 days).

Yes plenty of studies happening it was covered in the video, 10 active and 18 complete I think he said.

10-09-2020 02:04PM

kevin306 wrote: »

Watched this earlier, first time hearing of this guy. Be interested to hear peoples thoughts on his analysis. To be fair must of what he says he is using stats to back up, but yes stats can be made to back up either side of the story. He is basically saying lockdown/mask wearing has down little to reduce the impact of the virus and the virus is basically following a trend that all virus do. He uses Sweden as evidence for this. The one thing he doesn't mention, in this video at least, is the possible co-morbidity's associated with contracting the virus. Just interesting to hear a different approach to the mainstream narrative being fed by the media.

There is definitely some truth to what he is saying. Not sure we can conclude it is all over now. Another few months of all these cases and no real sickness eventually people will just slowly move back to relatively normal life. Covid will cause some permanent changes. People's attitude to cleanliness and having cold flu will change. Older generations actually were more aware of this as they probably remember the flush of the 50s and 60s unlike us younger folk.

Blondini · 10-09-2020 02:06PM

the merchant wrote: »

196 cases. 107 Dublin. 11 Limerick. 12 Waterford. 7 Kildare.

Surprise entry into the charts for Waterford.

Covid 19 Part XXII-30,360 in ROI(1,781 deaths) 8,035 in NI (568 deaths)(10/09)Read OP

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