Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

yosemitesam1 · 20-07-2020 09:38AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

You have simply made up a lot of bull**** here. IFR is believed to be 0.65%, this is the official estimate released by WHO a few days ago . It is a consensus agreed upon by 1300 international scientists after examining hundreds of studies . But yeh I'm sure you're right and the thousands of scientists have it all wrong here.

That 0.65% will drop just as the 3% figure was revised downwards.
It was apparent for a long time the 3% fatality rate was very wrong before it was revised downwards by WHO and this will probably be no different

ShineOn7 · 20-07-2020 09:39AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

You have simply made up a lot of bull**** here. IFR is believed to be 0.65%, this is the official estimate released by WHO a few days ago . It is a consensus agreed upon by 1300 international scientists after examining hundreds of studies . But yeh I'm sure you're right and the thousands of scientists have it all wrong here.

Let's presume what WHO are saying is true (a huge stretch in itself);

That's still 6 times more lethal than the Flu

Flu's mortality rate = 0.1%

theballz · 20-07-2020 09:39AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Why can't they?

I rode Scarlett Johansson last night

Prove me wrong

is_that_so · 20-07-2020 09:40AM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The antibody survey is giving an estimate of just under 5% of the population being infected. This is underestimating the total infections quite considerably as a large proportion of infections only generate a t cell or mucosal antibody response.

It can't test for what it's not looking for. It's an indicator. Personally reckon people get too obsessed with this when it's treatments and ultimately a vaccine we still need regardless. Do you have a link to data that shows this underestimation?

Call me Al · 20-07-2020 09:41AM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The antibody survey is giving an estimate of just under 5% of the population being infected. This is underestimating the total infections quite considerably as a large proportion of infections only generate a t cell or mucosal antibody response.

I know exactly what you're saying.
I'm asking you to show where there's evidence of a spread of the disease that's greater than 5% of the population.
Also everything else you claim.
For reference a link to Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland from 17/7 was shared here yesterday I think.

Charles Babbage · 20-07-2020 09:41AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

You have simply made up a lot of bull**** here. IFR is believed to be 0.65%, this is the official estimate released by WHO a few days ago . It is a consensus agreed upon by 1300 international scientists after examining hundreds of studies . But yeh I'm sure you're right and the thousands of scientists have it all wrong here.

And while better understanding and treatment will reduce thus a bit, to 0.4% say, this is still an order of magnitude higher than flu. Anyone who says that it us like flu is simply trying to disrupt rational discussion.

GooglePlus · 20-07-2020 09:41AM

I've had a test ordered by my GP, so just waiting on contact by the HSE with an appointment.

Does anyone know if there's a testing location in the city centre within walking distance near Stephens Green?

I don't drive and I can't be getting public transport if I might have this thing?

theballz · 20-07-2020 09:43AM

GooglePlus wrote: »

I've had a test ordered by my GP, so just waiting on contact by the HSE with an appointment.

Does anyone know if there's a testing location in the city centre within walking distance near Stephens Green?

I don't drive and I can't be getting public transport if I might have this thing?

HSE can arrange transportation for you if required. Let your GP know that is the case, he may need to inform them of that.

When I got tested, I simply received a text with a time, date and venue.

GooglePlus · 20-07-2020 09:44AM

theballz wrote: »

HSE can arrange transportation for you if required. Let your GP know that is the case, he may need to inform them of that.

When I got tested, I simply received a text with a time, date and venue.

Thanks, they noted that I didn't drive so hopefully something is arranged.

Edit: got my appointment text there, I'm only off the phone to my GP so very impressed. Within walking distance and I get a test today.

bb1234567 · 20-07-2020 09:45AM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

That 0.65% will drop just as the 3% figure was revised downwards.
It was apparent for a long time the 3% fatality rate was very wrong before it was revised downwards by WHO and this will probably be no different

Again you are so wrong . WHO never estimated the IFR to be 3%, they have NEVER released an official IFR estimate. The 3% figure was arrived at by simply dividing the number confirmed deaths worldwide by hospital confirmed cases, there was nothing else to the figure, it was not an estimate and WHO openly said this.

schmoo2k · 20-07-2020 09:45AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Let's presume what WHO are saying is true (a huge stretch in itself);

That's still 6 times more lethal than the Flu

Flu's mortality rate = 0.1%

Good grief - really? I will bite - I know the WHO are not perfect, but why do you consider them to be deliberately misleading us?

20-07-2020 09:48AM

theballz wrote: »

HSE can arrange transportation for you if required. Let your GP know that is the case, he may need to inform them of that.

When I got tested, I simply received a text with a time, date and venue.

How do they communicate the result to you?

ACitizenErased · 20-07-2020 09:49AM

The antibody test results seem similar to other countries but ultimately cannot be trusted as not all cases beat the disease with antibodies.

Either way, if the seroprevalence is around 5% as suggested it indicates our cases must have been 5-10x higher than currently counted.

What Username Guidelines · 20-07-2020 09:53AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The antibody test results seem similar to other countries but ultimately cannot be trusted as not all cases beat the disease with antibodies.

Either way, if the seroprevalence is around 5% as suggested it indicates our cases must have been 5-10x higher than currently counted.

It would be good if they could at least test blood donors here for t-cells as they have done in Sweden. It wouldn't be a perfect representation and it would be a smaller sampling size given the effort req'd, but may be worth it for a better overview.

Interesting too that we're seeing similar numbers to Spain with ~10x our population and ~10x our cases, we know Spain were missing a lot of cases at their peak so may suggest we have also.

Turtwig · 20-07-2020 09:54AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Let's presume what WHO are saying is true (a huge stretch in itself);

That's still 6 times more lethal than the Flu

Flu's mortality rate = 0.1%

That's flu case fatality rate. You are not comparing like with like.
The IFR for flu is likely a lot lot lower than 0.1%

is_that_so · 20-07-2020 09:56AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

The antibody test results seem similar to other countries but ultimately cannot be trusted as not all cases beat the disease with antibodies.

Either way, if the seroprevalence is around 5% as suggested it indicates our cases must have been 5-10x higher than currently counted.

I think it indicates we can give up on the notion of eventual natural immunity and science needs to help us out.

ShineOn7 · 20-07-2020 09:59AM

Turtwig wrote: »

That's flu case fatality rate. You are not comparing like with like.
The IFR for flu is likely a lot lot lower than 0.1%

Then that only proves the point more that Covid is a huge amount more lethal than Flu

I can't believe, after 5 months, we're still having Flu versus Covid stat debates. It's like something you'd see on Facebook, not a forum where there's been some excellent information sharing

Danzy · 20-07-2020 09:59AM

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

For the people that we say there is no hope of a vaccine, you are just as ridiculous as those who say that a vaccine will arrive and eradicate Covid....

There are multiple vaccines ready now, late stage testing.

There are so many in the pipeline that others aren't working on them.

caveat emptor · 20-07-2020 10:06AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Then that only proves the point more that Covid is a huge amount more lethal than Flu

I can't believe, after 5 months, we're still having Flu versus Covid stat debates. It's like something you'd see on Facebook, not a forum where there's been some excellent information sharing

World has gone mad.

"I am entitled to my opinion"
->
"You are talking ****"
->
"prove it"
->
"no"

rinse and repeat

We are fuvcked if there are this many stupid people.

yosemitesam1 · 20-07-2020 10:08AM

Call me Al wrote: »

I know exactly what you're saying.
I'm asking you to show where there's evidence of a spread of the disease that's greater than 5% of the population.
Also everything else you claim.
For reference a link to Epidemiology of COVID-19 in Ireland from 17/7 was shared here yesterday I think.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-53248660

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1.full

Mucosal antibodies or t cells aren't being tested for which means that the actual figures will be higher than whatever a blood antibody survey says, as blood antibody positives don't represent 100% of total recovered infections

bb1234567 · 20-07-2020 10:12AM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

The antibody survey is giving an estimate of just under 5% of the population being infected. This is underestimating the total infections quite considerably as a large proportion of infections only generate a t cell or mucosal antibody response.

The highest estimate I have seen for the number of people who may have immunity without developing antibody presence is 50% more. So this huge undercount youre speaking of may mean instead around 7.5% of Irish population may have contraced it, this is also just a theory still.

ShineOn7 · 20-07-2020 10:16AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wow

Speaking the very obvious here, but America are fcuked with this

Like proper fcucked for the next 3-5 years. They always turn against each other on absolutely every issue

Whereas I think by 2022 the EU will be 90% back to normal (albeit with continued safety measures)

Away With The Fairies · 20-07-2020 10:22AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

World has gone mad.

"I am entitled to my opinion"
->
"You are talking ****"
->
"prove it"
->
"no"

rinse and repeat

We are fuvcked if there are this many stupid people.

This video is actually funny. An adult acting like a toddler having a tantrum.

https://youtu.be/vAUeIBQoQCU

JoChervil · 20-07-2020 10:22AM

I think that we should fight with this pandemic with what we have at hand, not waiting for the vaccine.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768532

I this article:
"The authors present data that prior to implementation of universal masking in late March 2020, new infections among HCWs with direct or indirect patient contact were increasing exponentially, from 0% to 21.3% (a mean increase of 1.16% per day). However, after the universal masking policy was in place, the proportion of symptomatic HCWs with positive test results steadily declined, from 14.7% to 11.5% (a mean decrease of 0.49% per day). Although not a randomized clinical trial, this study provides critically important data to emphasize that masking helps prevent transmission of SARS-CoV-2."

If wearing mask in a hospital setting meaning among infected people caused decrease in spreading infection, so if the whole world was wearing masks, the virus could be killed without vaccine then.

caveat emptor · 20-07-2020 10:23AM

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Wow

Speaking the very obvious here, but America are fcuked with this

Like proper fcucked for the next 3-5 years. They always turn against each other on absolutely every issue

Whereas I think by 2022 the EU will be 90% back to normal (albeit with continued safety measures)

I'd go so far to say anyone who thinks it's not real is fvcked.

They are generally saying that for one of two reasons.

they got it
they are financially impacted as the sector they worked is affected

in both those instances the situation hasn't changed.

you can get it again
the affect on society is such that your industry will be deemed non essential so you'll have to figure out a different way to pay the mortgage.

That will be true 6 months , 1 year 3 years from now.

(unless there is a vaccine or effective treatment, even then there will be some too stupid to take it and die on that hill)

Call me Al · 20-07-2020 10:23AM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/health-53248660

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.21.108308v1.full

Mucosal antibodies or t cells aren't being tested for which means that the actual figures will be higher than whatever a blood antibody survey says, as blood antibody positives don't represent 100% of total recovered infections

I think the words you're missing here are "may he" not will be.
The biorxiv paper you've shared isn't peer--reviewed, and the headline from BBC doesn't state as fact. Because it isnt proven yet..

And FWIW I do agree with the claim that there is a good chance there has been a greater level of exposure than 5%. Luke Oneill talks about t cells a lot, is working on them in TCD I think, and even he isn't claiming it as a scientific certainty when he's asked about this by Pat Kenny.

Wrt the claim you make re covid hospitalisation rate it isnt 1%.
And it's not a flu.

yosemitesam1 · 20-07-2020 10:25AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

The highest estimate I have seen for the number of people who may have immunity without developing antibody presence is 50% more. So this huge undercount youre speaking of may mean instead around 7.5% of Irish population may have contraced it, this is also just a theory still.

Until a comprehensive test is carried out it's also a theory that only 5% of the population have got it...
But even take 5%, that number massively reduces the assumed mortality and hospitalisation rates that were used to determine restrictions were necessary.
Are these new numbers going to be used to revise policy going forward, we can cope with 10x what we thought we could cope with, possibly more

ShineOn7 · 20-07-2020 10:29AM

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

This video is actually funny. An adult acting like a toddler having a tantrum.

https://youtu.be/vAUeIBQoQCU

The top comment on that video

“I’m an American!” - yes we can all tell. No other developed country in the world has these problems

bb1234567 · 20-07-2020 10:31AM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Until a comprehensive test is carried out it's also a theory that only 5% of the population have got it...
But even take 5%, that number massively reduces the assumed mortality and hospitalisation rates that were used to determine restrictions were necessary.
Are these new numbers going to be used to revise policy going forward, we can cope with 10x what we thought we could cope with, possibly more

The article said less than 5%, so presumably it's pretty close to that figure at around 4.8% or so, that's ariund 235,000 people. With deaths at 1750 that's an IFR of 0.75%, probably higher than the global estimate published by WHO because of our greater number of nursing home deaths than most countries.

bodhrandude · 20-07-2020 10:34AM

Would be funny if Oxegen festival had just happened this weekend past.

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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