Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

niallo27 · 19-07-2020 11:02PM

Redordeadqwwer wrote: »

Not sure about RTA death rates per year but this isn't the way the virus works. As others have said, there's only been this amount of deaths because of the severe restrictions put in place. Otherwise there would have been significantly more.

I agree there is sensationalism at every turn in the media. The reality, for me, is somewhere in between. Be vigilant, wash your hand, follow the advice. Think about the repercussions for others. I'm relatively young, fit and healthy but it doesn't mean I should go around wrecklessly doing what I want.

Nobody is saying open everything up and go back to normal but I'm sure with mask wearing and lighter restrictions and open phase 4, I am still sure the deaths to under 65s would be quiet low, much lower than road fatalities or other serious illness.

niallo27 · 19-07-2020 11:03PM

D.Q wrote: »

No no no. You're doing this wrong. Pick a side and bunker down.

Its not about picking a side, its about being careful but not let it take over your life. Its not as terrifing as the media portray.

Leftwaffe · 19-07-2020 11:06PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Nobody is saying open everything up and go back to normal but I'm sure with mask wearing and lighter restrictions and open phase 4, I am still sure the deaths to under 65s would be quiet low, much lower than road fatalities or other serious illness.

I agree. Something we are going to have to live with as the gov have no interest in trying to achieve a COVID free Ireland. Maybe is not plausible.

We need to find the perfect balance of restrictions. I'm sure we will fall into it in the coming months.

What Username Guidelines · 19-07-2020 11:07PM

Renjit wrote: »

Thats a low increase.

Im sure some of our media will see it as a 33% increase in hospitalisations

But honestly, it fell very quickly from big numbers down to where we are now and both general beds and ICU have been floating around the 10 mark, with ICU a little lower than acute beds. There isn’t usually an reduction over the weekends so will keep an eye over the coming week

fritzelly · 19-07-2020 11:12PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Im sure some of our media will see it as a 33% increase in hospitalisations

But honestly, it fell very quickly from big numbers down to where we are now and both general beds and ICU have been floating around the 10 mark, with ICU a little lower than acute beds. There isn’t usually an reduction over the weekends so will keep an eye over the coming week

Can imagine the RTE headlines tomorrow
ICU beds nearing capacity as patients in ICU increase by 33%

YellowBucket · 19-07-2020 11:14PM

Just out of interest, what’s our total ICU capacity now with the expanded reach into private hospitals?

fritzelly · 19-07-2020 11:17PM

YellowBucket wrote: »

Just out of interest, what’s our total ICU capacity now with the expanded reach into private hospitals?

Just over 400 but have the private hospitals not taken them back now?

SeaBreezes · 19-07-2020 11:25PM

charlie14 wrote: »

Japan closed their karaoke bars when the first infections appeared.
The official reason was that loud voices spread the virus much like coughing.
But as I said before, the real reason could just be that the person making the decision was a music lover.

I dunno.in NZ random bar, karaoke, a man sang 'sitting at the dock of the bay' and my god he made me hear it anew.

Sometimes its amazing.

Plumbthedepths · 19-07-2020 11:28PM

fritzelly wrote: »

"ICU beds nearing capacity as patients in ICU increase by 33%"

Is it odd I read this in the voice of George Lee?

bb1234567 · 19-07-2020 11:32PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Nobody is saying open everything up and go back to normal but I'm sure with mask wearing and lighter restrictions and open phase 4, I am still sure the deaths to under 65s would be quiet low, much lower than road fatalities or other serious illness.

Low compared to the number of elderly people who are dying, but COVID is now a major cause of death in the under 65 group too in countries with widespread transmission.

Approximately 29,000 people in the USA under 65 have died of COVID over the last 4 months.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927196

In a typical year 745,000 people under 65 die in the US

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/older-american-health.htm

In the developing world both the total number of and ratio of deaths under 65 compared to the western world are also far higher.

Widdensushi · 19-07-2020 11:35PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Low compared to the number of elderly people who are dying, but COVID is now a major cause of death in the under 65 group too in countries with widespread transmission.

Approximately 29,000 people in the USA under 65 have died of COVID over the last 4 months.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927196

In a typical year 745,000 people under 65 die in the US

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/older-american-health.htm

38,000 people die in rta in America a year, everything is relative

fritzelly · 19-07-2020 11:36PM

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Is it odd I read this in the voice of George Lee?

Very normal!

WoollyRedHat · 19-07-2020 11:37PM

Glenomra wrote: »

Virus virtually gone throughout Europe.

You must be a time-traveller, can you tell us when Covid goes away globally?

WoollyRedHat · 19-07-2020 11:40PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

https://www.jpost.com/health-science/israeli-doctor-reinfected-with-coronavirus-3-months-after-recovering-635550

An Israeli Doctor experienced symptoms in April and tested positive, then recovered and tested negative in both May and June. They now have tested positive again in July after close contact with covid patients.The hospital reports two other cases of patients recovering and testing negative and then coming back to the hospital with symptoms and testing positive.

Not worth getting too excited about yet, but something to keep an eye on, it may suggest that immunity only lasts a couple of months for certain individuals.

Possible that when they originally got infected, that amount of virus they contracted was just enough to illicit a small antibody response but not enough for T-Cells to effectively illicit an appropriate antibody response second time round?

niallo27 · 19-07-2020 11:41PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Low compared to the number of elderly people who are dying, but COVID is now a major cause of death in the under 65 group too in countries with widespread transmission.

Approximately 29,000 people in the USA under 65 have died of COVID over the last 4 months.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/927196

In a typical year 745,000 people under 65 die in the US

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/older-american-health.htm

In the developing world both the total number of and ratio of deaths under 65 compared to the western world are also far higher.

Any better source, its from March and in the first line they apologise for the last misleading headline.

bb1234567 · 19-07-2020 11:42PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

38,000 people die in rta in America a year, everything is relative

Not a very insightful comment really...
Just 30 people under 65 died of lightning shocks last year, everything is relative..

A poster implied that the risk of death for under 65 is very low. While it is low compared to elderly, it is not that low, as I said, COVID is now a major cause of death of under 65's in USA, and all countries with widespread transmission. The fact more die in traffic accidents doesn't mean much really, traffic accidents are a major cause of death worldwide. 1 in 25 deaths worldwide every year are because of car crashes, pretty astonishing.

WoollyRedHat · 19-07-2020 11:43PM

Hego Damask wrote: »

At what stage is the cure worse then the disease tho ?
How many people will be homeless, starving, serious mental health issues, suicide rates will skyrocket...

Sweden seem to have had the right idea, overall they are on a gradual decrease, and their death rate is way way less then the likes of Spain and Italy that had very strict lockdowns.

It's time to learn to live with this and get on with our lives.
No vaccine is coming, no cure is coming, it's here and that's it.

People loving the idea of living in fear in our basements for decades - you really think this is sustainable ?

Well we don't have basements in the main, but for people who don't understand or chose the 'Ignorance is bliss' approach to the virus, perhaps they could linger in their basements for an extra while longer maybe?

WoollyRedHat · 19-07-2020 11:45PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Are people really debating against masks?
Lads, seriously....
I’m highly asthmatic and wear a mask every day with no issue.

We need a new public health communication slogan ' Wear masks, slow the spread, save lives'.

bb1234567 · 19-07-2020 11:46PM

niallo27 wrote: »

Any better source, its from March and in the first line they apologise for the last misleading headline.

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/27/860508864/we-all-feel-at-risk-100-000-people-dead-from-covid-19-in-the-u-s

This article from May 27th, also claims the proportion of deaths under 65 in the USA is still 20%.

CDC data on deaths by age group as of JUne 15th states that 19.2% of all American COVID deaths have been aged 64 or under.
https://www.acsh.org/news/2020/06/23/coronavirus-covid-deaths-us-age-race-14863

Widdensushi · 19-07-2020 11:51PM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Not a very insightful comment really...
Just 30 people under 65 died of lightning shocks last year, everything is relative..

A poster implied that the risk of death for under 65 is very low. While it is low compared to elderly, it is not that low, as I said, COVID is now a major cause of death of under 65's in USA, and all countries with widespread transmission. The fact more die in traffic accidents doesn't mean much really, traffic accidents are a major cause of death worldwide.

If there was as much effort going into stopping traffic accidents as covid there would not be many deaths, if any one of the treatments are half as good as they are indicating the death rate from COVID-19 will be dropping rapidly.

Johnny7136 · 19-07-2020 11:55PM

I'm a massive sceptic of all this. I've just read a little here and people are quoting numbers and death rates from other countries, how can any of the numbers be believed, people are dying with covid, not of covid.
I've read lots now for months on Twitter etc

My take on Florida / Texas.. There are testing huge amount of people that aren't sick. People are been tested up to 4 times hoping for a nagative result to be allowed back to work.

I can't get over how gullable we all seem, out health service has never been run to a high standard, money wasted / bad decisions etc Yet now we trust everything they say.

George Lee on Rte is an expert on science and scaremongering now. He was always an economics man, crazy to listen to a word of that.

We didn't open the pubs this week because an estimated R number is too high. I don't believe that number can be produced with accuracy without testing the whole population. Iceland may have near the correct figure.

How accurate is the testing, god knows, I read today something like 170 brands of test kits have been recalled.

We're now all told to wear masks without any set standard of mask. Fair enough no inconvenience to majority of us wearing a mask for short periods, wearing a mask for 8 hours a day in work, no thanks.

Were told weeks ago dubs not welcome in Wexford etc now we've moved onto Americans, their the new enemy. People should be treated the same from anywhere, social distancing rules the same, if that even works, one meter / two metres, who knows.

We maybe have a bad flu. Likely top 10 worst flus in past 25 years.
The response to this is out of control, I was scared at first when we didn't know anything, the numbers just aren't there... But because we did so well blah blah blah.
I don't think so, people caught the flu at the same rate they would have caught any year.
People die, that's life. So many people die of pneumonia cold and flu every year, we don't shut the country

WoollyRedHat · 19-07-2020 11:55PM

For the people that we say there is no hope of a vaccine, you are just as ridiculous as those who say that a vaccine will arrive and eradicate Covid....

bb1234567 · 19-07-2020 11:56PM

Widdensushi wrote: »

If there was as much effort going into stopping traffic accidents as covid there would not be many deaths, if any one of the treatments are half as good as they are indicating the death rate from COVID-19 will be dropping rapidly.

And if there was as little effort going into stopping COVID deaths as there were for traffic deaths then how many would there be? Doesn't that go against your argument..

bb1234567 · 19-07-2020 11:59PM

Johnny7136 wrote: »

I'm a massive sceptic of all this. I've just read a little here and people are quoting numbers and death rates from other countries, how can any of the numbers be believed, people are dying with covid, not of covid.
I've read lots now for months on Twitter etc

My take on Florida / Texas.. There are testing huge amount of people that aren't sick. People are been tested up to 4 times hoping for a nagative result to be allowed back to work.

I can't get over how gullable we all seem, out health service has never been run to a high standard, money wasted / bad decisions etc Yet now we trust everything they say.

George Lee on Rte is an expert on science and scaremongering now. He was always an economics man, crazy to listen to a word of that.

We didn't open the pubs this week because an estimated R number is too high. I don't believe that number can be produced with accuracy without testing the whole population. Iceland may have near the correct figure.

How accurate is the testing, god knows, I read today something like 170 brands of test kits have been recalled.

We're now all told to wear masks without any set standard of mask. Fair enough no inconvenience to majority of us wearing a mask for short periods, wearing a mask for 8 hours a day in work, no thanks.

Were told weeks ago dubs not welcome in Wexford etc now we've moved onto Americans, their the new enemy. People should be treated the same from anywhere, social distancing rules the same, if that even works, one meter / two metres, who knows.

We maybe have a bad flu. Likely top 10 worst flus in past 25 years.
The response to this is out of control, I was scared at first when we didn't know anything, the numbers just aren't there... But because we did so well blah blah blah.
I don't think so, people caught the flu at the same rate they would have caught any year.
People die, that's life. So many people die of pneumonia cold and flu every year, we don't shut the country

Pity you spent all the time reading twitter which is full of plenty of poor quality opinions of little substance. Any scientific publications that might back up your scepticism? And sceptical of what exactly? Who benefits from sensationalising the dangers of this virus? And if it is such a lucractive venture to apparently make some kind of jumped up common flu look far more dangerous than it is then why havn't 'they' done this before? How are so many international bodies and influential people in completely different fields government,law,medical,scientific,education etc coordinating so seamlessly to dupe the collective global public into this campaign of fear? Why doesn't this happen all the time?
1300 scientists recently came to a consensus that it is about 6.5x more dangerous than flu. I don't see what information you could have at your disposable that would in any way go to refute that.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-death-rate.html

YellowBucket · 20-07-2020 12:00AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Just over 400 but have the private hospitals not taken them back now?

They’re available flexibility at short notice, in the event of a national emergency, I’ve heard.

Johnny7136 · 20-07-2020 12:06AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Pity you spent all the time reading twitter which is full of plenty of poor quality opinions of little substance. Any scientific publications that might back up your scepticism?

Twitter just links me to the news agencies and reports, it's not that I'm going by any one persons opinion.
Everyone's opinions are different and changing like the weather, were having resurrections and all with this pandemic. Deaths are been denotified as far as I know.
We're taking away people's jobs and livelihoods on inaccurate data

blowitupref · 20-07-2020 12:12AM

fritzelly wrote: »

Can imagine the RTE headlines tomorrow
ICU beds nearing capacity as patients in ICU increase by 33%

And Tomas Ryan no doubt will be on tonight show tomorrow to tell us all that the second wave is inevitable.

bb1234567 · 20-07-2020 12:13AM

Johnny7136 wrote: »

Twitter just links me to the news agencies and reports, it's not that I'm going by any one persons opinion.
Everyone's opinions are different and changing like the weather, were having resurrections and all with this pandemic. Deaths are been denotified as far as I know.
We're taking away people's jobs and livelihoods on inaccurate data

Surely denotifications are good thing going by your criticisms mentioned moments ago. If a presumed death is not found to have been covid related it's denotified, as in the death was caused by something with symptoms similar to covid but it later tested negative. How's that for accuracy and transparency. Shouldn't you be celebrating this revelation given your prior apprehensions surrounding this

stephenjmcd · 20-07-2020 12:22AM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

HSE report out for the evening, hospitals up 3 to 12, with Galway Sligo and Portlaoise seeing admissions. ICU up 1 to 8 patients, with those on ventilators going from 3 to 5. No ICU deaths in 24hrs.

3 new cases confirmed in hospitals, two in portlaoise and one in Galway.

Looks like this report shows that icu and general numbers are separate and one isn’t a subset of the other, as portlaoise had 2 confirmed cases, and they one in general and one in ICU.

Fairly stable numbers. Never much of a change over the weekends, doesn't seem to be any discharges taking place during the weekends.

fritzelly · 20-07-2020 12:23AM

bb1234567 wrote: »

Surely denotifications are good thing going by your criticisms mentioned moments ago. If a presumed death is not found to have been covid related it's denotified, as in the death was caused by something with symptoms similar to covid but it later tested negative. How's that for accuracy and transparency. Shouldn't you be celebrating this revelation given your prior apprehensions surrounding this

I would rather they confirm covid as the cause before announcing the death from covid
We have had quite a number of denotifications

As much as well for the case numbers - do they not have some kind of system in place to check this?
When they announce 30 new cases and then the next day you could have 5 denotifications - degrading the trust in the system to be at all accurate

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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