Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Thanks.

The thesis is that a million tests will get more false positives than a thousand tests. So as testing increases the extremely minimal chances of false positives also increase.

It may be nothing but it is something I was thinking about earlier in the increased testing discussions.

The only way you get a false positive in PCR is contamination by human error, there is always a chance that can happen if someone for example had used a contaminated transfer pipette or poured off into the wrong tube if they are manually pooling or handling but most of the equipment they use is automated and using disposable tips.

False negative is often from inadequate sample or mis-sample at time of collection, this is mainly down to the patient not presenting virus at the specific test site (eg. throat) at the time of testing.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I've heard the test is not too pleasant. Anyone confirm. Maybe people are putting it off because of the nature of the test, I dunno.

Test is grand. People are just hyping it up. Takes less than a minute altogether.

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I've heard the test is not too pleasant. Anyone confirm. Maybe people are putting it off because of the nature of the test, I dunno.

I have had 4 tests, I found they vary depending on the collector. Some tested both nose and throat and the the other 2 was just nose.

I also found one of the ones that tested nose only my eyes didn't water as much and was wondering did she push it in far enough to get good enough sample.

The other ones they pushed it in right to the back and it was a few minutes before I could drive.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In the comments of yer mans tweet there’s a Cork GP saying she hasn’t referred many at all in the last few weeks.
Another is a Dublin woman who has been referred for hayfever.
Realistically anyone who calls the doctor and says they have sniffles is gonna be assumed covid-positive, and the doctor will report as such.

and you've others saying no noticeable increase for them.

https://twitter.com/ConorTMcGrane/status/1284144708797816833?s=19

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In the comments of yer mans tweet there’s a Cork GP saying she hasn’t referred many at all in the last few weeks.
Another is a Dublin woman who has been referred for hayfever.
Realistically anyone who calls the doctor and says they have sniffles is gonna be assumed covid-positive, and the doctor will report as such.

Yes was just looking, Cork gp saying maybe it’s a Dublin thing, another gp agreeing with Dr Maithilu, seeing an increase in requests, and another woman who works at gp surgery also saying an increase.

We’ll see soon enough how it plays out.

Edit: ah see above

mandrake04 wrote: »

The only way you get a false positive in PCR is contamination by human error, there is always a chance that can happen if someone for example had used a contaminated transfer pipette or poured off into the wrong tube if they are manually pooling or handling but most of the equipment they use is automated and using disposable tips.

False positive is often from inadequate sample or mis-sample at time of collection, this is mainly down to the patient not presenting virus at the specific test site (eg. throat) at the time of testing.

False negative. Also caused by inadequate swabbing.

But it's much more frequent than a false positive for the reasons you outline.

Nijmegen wrote: »

One assumes they have some modelling guided by trends in other countries as well as leading indicators (like tests requested) to indicate its gonna go up next week based on what we did last week and this and whether it comes back down is based on what we do this week and next. So trying to warn the public to take it seriously before it’s serious looking.

There’s real inertia with this stuff, it’s more like trying to steer a ferry than a race car.

This is good example of how easy it can get out of hand, you have fairly low numbers then slight fluctuations then bang!

State of Victoria pop 6.3m (Melbourne 4.9m) 7 day moving average tests 25K per day

Jun 7 - 4
Jun 8 - 2
Jun 9 - 0
Jun 10 - 4
Jun 11 - 10
Jun 12 - 4
Jun 13 - 8
Jun 14 - 9
Jun 15 - 12
Jun 16 - 9
Jun 17 - 21
Jun 18 - 18
Jun 19 - 13
Jun 20 - 25
Jun 21 - 19
Jun 22 - 16
Jun 23 - 17
Jun 24 - 20
Jun 25 - 33
Jun 26 - 30
Jun 27 - 41
Jun 28 - 49
Jun 29 - 75
Jun 30 - 64
Jul 1 - 73
Jul 2 - 77
Jul 3 - 66
Jul 4 - 108
Jul 5 - 74
Jul 6 - 127
Jul 7 - 191
Jul 8 - 134
Jul 9 - 165

Of the 10 in general hosptial beds tonight confirmed covid, 8 are in Dublin, 6 in the Mater, 1 in Connolly & 1 Tallaght.

Sligo and UHW with 1 each.

Also reflected in ICU of the 8 cases confirmed covid 6 are in Dublin. Sligo and Mercy with 1 case each in ICU.

ACitizenErased wrote: »

In the comments of yer mans tweet there’s a Cork GP saying she hasn’t referred many at all in the last few weeks.
Another is a Dublin woman who has been referred for hayfever.
Realistically anyone who calls the doctor and says they have sniffles is gonna be assumed covid-positive, and the doctor will report as such.

So we're now scouring the replies to tweets by the frontline that we don't like for evidence of disagreement?

Funny how the 'data analysts' who are full-time on this thread keep track of and try to squash empirical accounts from people far more qualified and invested in the outcome than they are.

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

So we're now scouring the replies to tweets by the frontline that we don't like for evidence of disagreement?

Funny how the 'data analysts' who are full-time on this thread keep track of and try to squash empirical accounts from people far more qualified and invested in the outcome than they are.

You wanna believe some tweets and not others? How do you decide which to believe?

stephenjmcd wrote:

its confusing, especially seeing as vincents report 1 in ICU but none in the overall figure so I took that as confirmation they were separate.

I always thought they were separate.

If i remember correctly there was one day the number of hospitalised and ICU patients were both 11. I dont think all our hospitalised patients were exclusively in ICU.