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Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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Comments

  • #7892
    wadacrack
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    DevilsHaircut wrote: »
    A rise in cases that starts with the 20-30 cohort doesn't stay there.

    https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1283134585665200131

    Sadly this is difficult for some here to grasp. Its much more infectious than Flu as we all know. Flu hits a large majority every year. Distancing/masks probably only likelt to slow bring the RO down to 2.5 or so eventually


  • #7893
    DevilsHaircut
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    That doesn't seem right what he posted?

    We don't test for the flu here outside of hospital settings, so the fatality rate among tested cases here and death is probably much higher than 0.1%

    We presume it's 0.1% as we prognose rather than test for influenza

    If you have a source on this (that doesn't confuse CFR with IFR)...


  • #7894
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,691 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Any sign of an uptick in hospitalisations? That’s what we should be looking at, not daily cases. That was the whole purpose of restrictions in the first place
    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Nope, continuously reducing. ICU's are nearly empty.

    Last 7 days admissions (11-17th July):
    ICU: +2
    Hospital: +9

    7 days before that (4-10th July):
    ICU: +1
    Hospital: +6

    Definitely ticking upward. I know discharges are increasing so there's less people in hospital/ICU, but the admissions are on an upward trend.


  • #7895
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Father works in the CUH and he said the doctor's are ****ting it.


    They were told similar about 200 cases a day Citizen?


  • #7896
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Last 7 days admissions (11-17th July):
    ICU: +2
    Hospital: +9

    7 days before that (4-10th July):
    ICU: +1
    Hospital: +6

    Definitely ticking upward. I know discharges are increasing so there's less people in hospital/ICU, but the admissions are on an upward trend.
    The only place that's actually seen an increase in the last week is the Mater in Dublin. 7 in hospital there (out of 13 nationwide) and everywhere else besides UHW (2) is either empty or has 1.


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  • #7897
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    They were told similar about 200 cases a day Citizen?
    Nope no talks there about what to expect


  • #7898
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Nope no talks there about what to expect


    He's shíting it though because he suspects a big increase?


  • #7899
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    He's shíting it though because he suspects a big increase?
    He's not a doctor but he said the doctors there are worried based on what they see on telly basically


  • #7900
    ZX7R
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,395 ✭✭✭ZX7R


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    I hope you're right

    The friend in question hasn't passed any comment like this re; Covid since it began

    My GP is offering referral for anyone who attends his clinic doesn't matter what is wrong with you.


  • #7901
    MOR316
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,276 ✭✭✭MOR316


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    He's not a doctor but he said the doctors there are worried based on what they see on telly basically


    So, like everyone else in this thread and the country?

    Cool


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  • #7902
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    He's shíting it though because he suspects a big increase?

    There have been rumours circulating in the hospitals all week regarding this. They are unsubstantiated rumours. This happens when accurate information is not provided. Since the change of government, whatever about the disease, the spread of misinformation and confusion has gone through the roof.


  • #7903
    podgeandrodge
    Site Banned Posts: 5,975 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    its a hell of alot of tests for 1 day.

    Only 3 weeks ago that would have been roughly the total for the week

    So why the language about "increasing cases" without the context of increased testing? And if positivity rates not increasing where is the concern? Are they taking actions from a pro-active perspective based on what might happen or is there another measure here I don't understand?


  • #7904
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Someone on Reddit Ireland ran some numbers

    The increase was always going to happen, but 34 cases with an r of 1.8 means we will be at 110 cases a day in two weeks which will be too much and would likely mean going back down a phase


  • #7905
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    podgeandrodge wrote: »
    So why the language about "increasing cases" without the context of increased testing? And if positivity rates not increasing where is the concern? Are they taking actions from a pro-active perspective based on what might happen or is there another measure here I don't understand?
    Based on what I can see the positivity rate has increase by a tiny tiny bit and by that I mean by less than 0.1%


  • #7906
    Boggles
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42,959 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    stephenjmcd wrote: »
    its a hell of alot of tests for 1 day.

    Only 3 weeks ago that would have been roughly the total for the week

    Again.

    We weren't testing care home staff last week.

    There is 32,000 staff to be tested every week for 4 weeks.


  • #7907
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Someone on Reddit Ireland ran some numbers
    We had 26 positive tests in the last 24 hours so i'm doubting that'll come true tbh


  • #7908
    GeorgeBailey
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,187 ✭✭✭GeorgeBailey


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

    They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

    Make of that what you will


    Ooooh exciting. We're back to the unsubstantiated rumours phase


  • #7909
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Someone on Reddit Ireland ran some numbers

    This is like the original projected 15,000 cases, only if nothing changes.


  • #7910
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Last 7 days admissions (11-17th July):
    ICU: +2
    Hospital: +9

    7 days before that (4-10th July):
    ICU: +1
    Hospital: +6

    Definitely ticking upward. I know discharges are increasing so there's less people in hospital/ICU, but the admissions are on an upward trend.

    What was the previous weeks? You cant identify a trend with two data points


  • #7911
    Wolf359f
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,691 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    The only place that's actually seen an increase in the last week is the Mater in Dublin. 7 in hospital there (out of 13 nationwide) and everywhere else besides UHW (2) is either empty or has 1.

    Connolly, Sligo, Letterkenny, Navan & Kilkenny Hospitals, all had admissions to hospital in the past 7 days. It's not just the Matter.


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  • #7912
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    He's not a doctor but he said the doctors there are worried based on what they see on telly basically

    At the end of they day doctors are not epidemiologists or statisticians and are subject to the same cognitive biases as everyone else. Added to the this the real fear of returning to an April type situation and you can see how they might be more afraid than most


  • #7913
    Renjit
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 949 ✭✭✭Renjit


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    It's fairly common sense that pubs closed = more house parties, which is the problem.

    House parties crowd will be limited. Pubs will be free for all even if you consider the contact details will be maintained. The responsibility to follow the rules falls on people.


  • #7914
    ACitizenErased
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Wolf359f wrote: »
    Connolly, Sligo, Letterkenny, Navan & Kilkenny Hospitals, all had admissions to hospital in the past 7 days. It's not just the Matter.
    Letterkenny, Navan, Kilkenny are all empty. Connolly and Sligo have 1 each.


  • #7915
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Boggles wrote: »
    Again.

    We weren't testing care home staff last week.

    There is 32,000 staff to be tested every week for 4 weeks.

    Rate of positive tests is unchanged however


  • #7916
    ShineOn7
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    GeorgeBailey wrote: »
    Ooooh exciting. We're back to the unsubstantiated rumours phase

    I'm a regular poster on these threads, not some randomer who registered today

    I said our Airports were too wide open over 3 weeks ago


    It's totally upto you what you do with the information. Ignore it, listen to it or whatever

    I'm passing on what was said to me in a phone call by a friend who works in a major hospital and who isn't fond of hyperbole

    PS - as already mentioned, I hope he's completely wrong. Maybe they're just mentally gearing their staff up for 200 cases a day just in case things continue to rise


  • #7917
    is_that_so
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Deleted User wrote: »
    At the end of they day doctors are not epidemiologists or statisticians and are subject to the same cognitive biases as everyone else. Added to the this the real fear of returning to an April type situation and you can see how they might be more afraid than most
    I think it's more a case of let's brace ourselves for what may not happen.


  • #7918
    polesheep
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,950 ✭✭✭polesheep


    ACitizenErased wrote: »
    Letterkenny, Navan, Kilkenny are all empty. Connolly and Sligo have 1 each.

    No, no, get with the flow and make some stuff up. It's much more fun than facts and figures.


  • #7919
    stephenjmcd
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,553 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    Boggles wrote: »
    Again.

    We weren't testing care home staff last week.

    There is 32,000 staff to be tested every week for 4 weeks.

    We were testing care home staff last week. That testing is underway 2 weeks now. Its visible in the HSE testing data, you can see the data where targeted testing kicked off again.

    This is from 30th June, quite visible when targeted referals started up. Note they're referals as care settings had to put staff forward for testing on a weekly basis.

    https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/integrated-information-service-testing-and-contact-tracing-dashboard-30-june-2020.pdf


  • #7920
    Polar101
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,145 ✭✭✭Polar101


    mean gene wrote: »
    ill make nothing of it because its rubbish

    I'm not saying we will have 200 cases in 3 weeks, or whether there was a meeting or not.

    But.. which do you think is a better way to run a hospital?

    1) Make preparations in case there is an increase of Covid patients
    2) Do nothing, because it is rubbish


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  • #7921
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 10,049 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    is_that_so wrote: »
    This is like the original projected 15,000 cases, only if nothing changes.

    And only if 1.8 is an accurate R number. I thought 1.2 to 1.8 was the range with a best estimate of 1.4. At 1.2 we would be at 49 cases, at 1.4 at 66. That’s a different story, and the rolling average is much less than 34


This discussion has been closed.
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