Advertisement
Help Keep Boards Alive. Support us by going ad free today. See here: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/.
If we do not hit our goal we will be forced to close the site.

Current status: https://keepboardsalive.com/

Annual subs are best for most impact. If you are still undecided on going Ad Free - you can also donate using the Paypal Donate option. All contribution helps. Thank you.
https://www.boards.ie/group/1878-subscribers-forum

Private Group for paid up members of Boards.ie. Join the club.
Hi all, please see this major site announcement: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058427594/boards-ie-2026

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

1260261263265266329

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,254 ✭✭✭LiquidZeb


    Thierry12 wrote: »
    What's the point?

    They will be wrong

    I think it's t cells that are the more accurate metric but they're much more difficult and expensive so we'll probably never know for sure how many people have or had it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,578 ✭✭✭✭Turtwig


    Asymptomatic spread isn't a problem and is rare according to WHO.

    Which is largely true for modes of transmission.
    Pre-symptomatic transmission is very significant. Trouble is common parlance people take asymptomatic to mean both asymptomatic (never shows symptoms) and Pre-symptomatic (not yet showing symptoms).

    I'm not a fan of the WHO spokesperson for forgetting their potential audience but I'm less of fan for people who seem to love dragging the chestnut up.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Arghus wrote: »
    I'm not an epidemiologist, but I presume it has something to do with the fact that case numbers are rising and they don't know for sure if it signals a resurgence of the virus or not.

    And given that pubs are, next to nightclubs - which some of them are very close to in practice - the one type of establishment where all the practices proven to provide the ideal circumstances to encourage further potential spread of the virus more or less constitute the usual pub going experience... maybe it's just best to pause with opening pubs at this present moment?

    It could be down to increased testing, but I presume they'd rather find that after the fact, then discover it is actually a proper resurgence and then try to close the pubs after the fact. At which case the damage will probably be done and will take far longer to correct.

    I don't think it's hard to understand at all.
    It's fairly common sense that pubs closed = more house parties, which is the problem.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,433 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Brazil doing better than US. Says a lot about US response. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1284160740056879111?s=19


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 917 ✭✭✭Thierry12


    Indeed, the 0.1% commonly cited for flu is the case fatality rate (i.e. for the number of detected cases).

    The infection fatality rate refers to all cases (including undetected).

    So the IFR for Covid is orders of magnitude greater than for flu.

    That doesn't seem right what he posted?

    We don't test for the flu here outside of hospital settings, so the fatality rate among tested cases here and death is probably much higher than 0.1%

    We presume it's 0.1% as we prognose rather than test for influenza


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,846 ✭✭✭Always_Running


    Ficheall wrote: »
    The problem with relying on hospital and ICU numbers is that it's younger people getting infected at the moment, and by the time they pass it on to their elders and they end up needing hospitalisation or ICU, the virus will have a much firmer foothold.
    I don't see us having the same problem we had with our elders now as back in April, March. We have a far better understanding of this virus now and clusters are unlikely to get out out of control.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Brazil doing better than US. Says a lot about US response. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1284160740056879111?s=19
    Am I right in saying that if the US and Brazil got their cases under control then only some countries (India, Russia etc) are actually increasing?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Eod100 wrote: »
    Brazil doing better than US. Says a lot about US response. https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1284160740056879111?s=19
    That's good to hear. More down to the health authorities and state governors giving Bolsonaro the finger although he'll try to claim it as a victory.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,326 ✭✭✭✭drunkmonkey


    Turtwig wrote: »
    Which is largely true for modes of transmission.
    Pre-symptomatic transmission is very significant. Trouble is common parlance people take asymptomatic to mean both asymptomatic (never shows symptoms) and Pre-symptomatic (not yet showing symptoms).

    I'm not a fan of the WHO spokesperson for forgetting their potential audience but I'm less of fan for people who seem to love dragging the chestnut up.

    See the link I posted, 3hrs old, https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/top-hhs-official-says-most-of-the-coronavirus-transmission-is-from-asymptomatic-people.html

    Most transmission of the coronavirus is coming from people who are asymptomatic and never develop any signs of the virus, a top official from the Department of Health and Human Services said Friday.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,606 ✭✭✭✭Arghus


    It's fairly common sense that pubs closed = more house parties, which is the problem.

    Yeah, but the government can't ban House Parties. They can close pubs.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

    They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

    Make of that what you will


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,433 ✭✭✭✭Eod100


    Am I right in saying that if the US and Brazil got their cases under control then only some countries (India, Russia etc) are actually increasing?

    Think they'd be some of worst affected countries alright. Think US will get worse before it gets better unfortunately.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,172 ✭✭✭wadacrack


    9,512 tests conducted in the last 24 hours. Seems very high.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    Strazdas wrote: »
    "We wouldn't have undue concern about people travelling to one of the countries on the green list" :

    That's not 'fully onboard'.

    Letter of 14 July: 'NPHET has significant and growing concerns regarding the potential for travel related introduction of the disease to increase the risk of a potential second wave...

    NPHET continues to advise Irish residents against non-essential travel outside of Ireland at this time.'

    https://www.gov.ie/en/collection/ba4aa0-letters-from-the-cmo-to-the-minister-for-health/#july


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Only 26 positive tests in last 24 hours :confused:


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 875 ✭✭✭mean gene


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

    They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

    Make of that what you will

    ill make nothing of it because its rubbish


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    LATEST TESTING UPDATE

    Tests conducted last 24hrs: 9512
    Tests conducted last 7 days: 49,925
    Positive tests last 24hrs: 26
    Positivity rate last 7 days: 0.3%


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,132 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

    They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

    Make of that what you will

    Preparing for the worst and people extrapolating data?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,340 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Asymptomatic spread isn't a problem and is rare according to WHO.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/17/top-hhs-official-says-most-of-the-coronavirus-transmission-is-from-asymptomatic-people.html?&qsearchterm=asymptomatic

    Bad timing, old chap. Just out today.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    ShineOn7 wrote: »
    Got a phone call from a friend earlier who works in a major Irish hospital;

    They were at a meeting earlier and were told to expect 200 cases a day in Ireland in about 3-4 weeks

    Make of that what you will
    Father works in the CUH and he said the doctor's are ****ting it.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,065 ✭✭✭Santy2015


    Only 26 positive tests in last 24 hours :confused:

    34 reported??
    Also I did some maths... it’s been a while as a percentage of population today our cases were 0.0000064%
    Uk 0.000010%
    They could be opening football stadiums in a few weeks....


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    mean gene wrote: »
    ill make nothing of it because its rubbish


    I hope you're right

    The friend in question hasn't passed any comment like this re; Covid since it began


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    Santy2015 wrote: »
    34 reported??
    Also I did some maths... it’s been a while as a percentage of population today our cases were 0.0000064%
    Uk 0.000010%
    They could be opening football stadiums in a few weeks....
    We've had 50 positive tests in last 48 hours and 55 cases reported


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    A rise in cases that starts with the 20-30 cohort doesn't stay there.

    https://twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1283134585665200131


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    I know my Dublin friends will hate that I say this but based on the past few days I'm thinking this is a Leinster problem....


    It's a capital city problem all the world over

    There's been very few big cities that are their country's main hub who've dodged the Covid bullet


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,553 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    LATEST TESTING UPDATE

    Tests conducted last 24hrs: 9512
    Tests conducted last 7 days: 49,925
    Positive tests last 24hrs: 26
    Positivity rate last 7 days: 0.3%

    9,500 tests in 24hrs is extremely high.

    So 26 postives, where has 34 come from then because its been fairly accurate since the weekend back log was processed through


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,857 ✭✭✭✭ACitizenErased


    9,500 tests in 24hrs is extremely high.

    So 26 postives, where has 34 come from then because its been fairly accurate since the weekend back log was processed through
    I was a little concerned after seeing 34 but now that the testing data is there it's not that concerning


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,550 ✭✭✭ShineOn7


    The impression in getting is a lot of people aren’t taking it seriously anymore as they assumed it was just going to trend towards zero and that would be it.

    That’s not what’s happening. It trailed along at low numbers and as soon as we lifted restrictions it has begun to start tending back up again.

    I don’t get the sense that most people were taking that much heed of the fact that we need to manage the reopening.

    I know these are anecdotal but my observations of last few days in Cork City / Suburbs:

    1. Very little mask wearing until this week and it’s still very much a minority. I’ve Asian colleagues who were totally shocked at how lax we were about it.

    2. Hand sanitiser not always present at entrances to shops anymore. It was totally universal a few weeks ago. In finding its not there or it’s not being replenished. (I carry my own).

    3. Social distancing isn’t happening reliably at all. I was in supermarkets, shops, cafes and all sorts of places and a very significant % of customers aren’t bothered.

    4. High contact surfaces all over the place. Just as an example, one cafe I went into (locally run not a multinational) is using shared milk jugs. So hundreds of people are picking those up and touching them all day. I’m not seeing much evidence of anyone really knowing what they’re up to. I’ve seen the same in service stations and motorway services on way to and from Dublin.

    5. Abundance of poor efforts / lack of expertise when it comes to planning spaces. I was in a few shops where social distancing efforts were actually doing the complete opposite and were causing people to bump into each other due to the way they had laid out queues.

    All in all I think our efforts are mixed and often fairly sloppy. I know lots of people are making huge effort but a lot really aren’t.

    6. I think there’s a lot of absorbing of Americans anti mask and anti reality stuff online. I’m hearing garbage information being regurgitated in real life, not just on twitter. We speak English, we are on the same social media. It’s inevitable.

    I’m just shocked at the number of people I’ve spoken to who are under the assumption that it was somehow cured by the lockdown. Maybe that’s miscommunication? Maybe it’s people hearing what they want to hear? I don’t know, but it’s not helping.


    Ireland's attitude to Covid very well summed up right there

    Excellent post


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,553 ✭✭✭✭stephenjmcd


    I was a little concerned after seeing 34 but now that the testing data is there it's not that concerning

    its a hell of alot of tests for 1 day.

    Only 3 weeks ago that would have been roughly the total for the week


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 524 ✭✭✭DevilsHaircut


    Speaking of antibodies when are they releasing the findings from the antibody tests they carried out in Dublin and Sligo?

    They had trouble getting people to respond to the request letter (Tony Holohan tweeted to encourage take-up).

    Otherwise the result are/were due in late August, if they got enough participants.


This discussion has been closed.
Advertisement