Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

stephenjmcd · 17-07-2020 04:57PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I wouldn't worry too much about the difference day to day as that's been fluctuating for a while but the trend towards higher numbers is clear at this point and can't be dismissed as just a blip.

The caution towards reopening makes more sense to me now, but I still can't understand the hesitancy to take action on tourism.

The tourism bit is head scratching. They keep talking about tougher measures and then just say oh well we'll be putting the locator form online. Very tough measure that

Gael23 · 17-07-2020 04:57PM

branie2 wrote: »

The cases should be going down, not up!

How do you make that out?

stephenjmcd · 17-07-2020 05:00PM

wadacrack wrote: »

The trend is clear not the 7 day average is continuing to rise. Their are cases throughout the country too. The likelihood of it suddenly halting at 30 is very slim at this stage. Effective contact tracing will become very difficult. Hopefully I'm wrong

Of course the 7 day average rises, but you get my point that we had 30 earlier in the week and then dropped back down and now 30 again today which shows how volatile everything is.

Well if you go by what Dr De Gascun said earlier they know where the cases are and they aren't randomly popping up according to him which suggests contact tracing is working quite well.

There was always going to be an increae in cases when we reopened more. Surely people didn't expect 10 cases a day??

BringBackMick · 17-07-2020 05:01PM

Of course as we open up society an uptick in cases is to be expected, it is about making it a manageable number.

Obviously next 5 days of reports will be interesting to see what our level of reopening has led to, hopefully it will cap out at round 40 cases per day.

Unfortunately we gonna have to live with this plague for a long time yet and there will be peaks and troughs, openings and closings.

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 05:03PM

Doesn't sit well with me when we get a high figure without testing numbers

Strazdas · 17-07-2020 05:05PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I wouldn't worry too much about the difference day to day as that's been fluctuating for a while but the trend towards higher numbers is clear at this point and can't be dismissed as just a blip.

The caution towards reopening makes more sense to me now, but I still can't understand the hesitancy to take action on tourism.

The travel thing is a bit of a red herring though. The vast majority of the 34 cases today have nothing to do with travel outside the country.

From what the experts are saying, they are far more concerned about domestic transmission.

Utopia Parkway · 17-07-2020 05:06PM

branie2 wrote: »

The cases should be going down, not up!

When restrictions are relaxed, cases are probably going to go up. I'm not sure there is a way around that. I think there is an acceptable number of new cases though. Once it starts hitting the high double digits is when they will probably pump the brakes again.

Denmark a similar sized country to ourselves, seem to be pottering along at 30+ cases a day on average. Some days more. Some days less.

Santy2015 · 17-07-2020 05:06PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Doesn't sit well with me when we get a high figure without testing numbers

Possibly 10k tests done?

is_that_so · 17-07-2020 05:06PM

branie2 wrote: »

The cases should be going down, not up!

If there are still cases emerging from contacts you'd expect them to rise for a bit. As long as we don't start hitting 50+ a day and rising there should not be too much of an effect on what's been opened. 100+ a day will probably mean shops, gyms etc closing again.

hmmm · 17-07-2020 05:08PM

PopTarts wrote: »

Why won’t the media report on the healthcare staff. I know they probably like to dramatise travel / house parties etc but surely they should be looking at the welfare of the health care staff. Shocking the figures are so high still with these.

I suspect the healthcare staff are just a proxy for community transmission at this stage. They're unlikely to be getting infected in hospitals, they're picking it up in the community and are more likely to be tested than joe soap. If the numbers of healthcare staff testing positive are going up, that would be concerning.

JP Liz V1 · 17-07-2020 05:08PM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

How we can set a green list that conflicts with other countries green lists is beyond me, if we don't want our citizens travelling to UK we shouldn't be allowing UK citizens to travel here.

Exactly if UK, Spain and USA are not for Ireland's green list to travel then we shouldn't be accepting travel from them either

Atlantic Dawn · 17-07-2020 05:08PM

Do they give a breakdown of the new cases as to whether they were out in the community or within the health/care system?

sonofenoch · 17-07-2020 05:09PM

All these kuntz on their hollybobs are going to close us down again arent they

Polar101 · 17-07-2020 05:09PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Of course the 7 day average rises, but you get my point that we had 30 earlier in the week and then dropped back down and now 30 again today which shows how volatile everything is.

The earlier 30 was explained with a backlog.

This isn't too bad yet, but I'd be concerned about the "big clusters" - they do catch them, but how well are they able to trace all close contacts? Especially since we are told not all close contacts answer the phone or accept to be tested. Hopefully the app will help, and they'll be able to keep infections under control - if they can, then I don't think it matters a lot whether we have 4, 18 or 32 cases a day.

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 05:09PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

Possibly 10k tests done?

probably because thursday always has highest testing figure but I wanna see positive test numbers

drunkmonkey · 17-07-2020 05:10PM

is_that_so wrote: »

If there are still cases emerging from contacts you'd expect them to rise for a bit. As long as we don't start hitting 50+ a day and rising there should not be too much of an effect on what's been opened. 100+ a day will probably mean shops, gyms etc closing again.

Gyms are open? Thought they'd be last, heavy breathing

is_that_so · 17-07-2020 05:10PM

Strazdas wrote: »

The travel thing is a bit of a red herring though. The vast majority of the 34 cases today have nothing to do with travel outside the country.

From what the experts are saying, they are far more concerned about domestic transmission.

It's the dreaded house parties, which we'll probably see more of with pubs not opening! I see nothing wrong with them personally, just as long as half the neighbourhood isn't invited.

stevek93 · 17-07-2020 05:11PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

3 more deaths RIP
34 additional cases

Why is worldometers.info showing 2 less, I also noticed this the other day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/

Neamhshuntasach · 17-07-2020 05:11PM

Santy2015 wrote: »

Possibly 10k tests done?

Would be great if so. Positivity rate would be quite similar if 10k or over.

YellowBucket · 17-07-2020 05:11PM

The impression in getting is a lot of people aren’t taking it seriously anymore as they assumed it was just going to trend towards zero and that would be it.

That’s not what’s happening. It trailed along at low numbers and as soon as we lifted restrictions it has begun to start tending back up again.

I don’t get the sense that most people were taking that much heed of the fact that we need to manage the reopening.

I know these are anecdotal but my observations of last few days in Cork City / Suburbs:

1. Very little mask wearing until this week and it’s still very much a minority. I’ve Asian colleagues who were totally shocked at how lax we were about it.

2. Hand sanitiser not always present at entrances to shops anymore. It was totally universal a few weeks ago. In finding its not there or it’s not being replenished. (I carry my own).

3. Social distancing isn’t happening reliably at all. I was in supermarkets, shops, cafes and all sorts of places and a very significant % of customers aren’t bothered.

4. High contact surfaces all over the place. Just as an example, one cafe I went into (locally run not a multinational) is using shared milk jugs. So hundreds of people are picking those up and touching them all day. I’m not seeing much evidence of anyone really knowing what they’re up to. I’ve seen the same in service stations and motorway services on way to and from Dublin.

5. Abundance of poor efforts / lack of expertise when it comes to planning spaces. I was in a few shops where social distancing efforts were actually doing the complete opposite and were causing people to bump into each other due to the way they had laid out queues.

All in all I think our efforts are mixed and often fairly sloppy. I know lots of people are making huge effort but a lot really aren’t.

6. I think there’s a lot of absorbing of Americans anti mask and anti reality stuff online. I’m hearing garbage information being regurgitated in real life, not just on twitter. We speak English, we are on the same social media. It’s inevitable.

I’m just shocked at the number of people I’ve spoken to who are under the assumption that it was somehow cured by the lockdown. Maybe that’s miscommunication? Maybe it’s people hearing what they want to hear? I don’t know, but it’s not helping.

17-07-2020 05:12PM

is_that_so wrote: »

If there are still cases emerging from contacts you'd expect them to rise for a bit. As long as we don't start hitting 50+ a day and rising there should not be too much of an effect on what's been opened. 100+ a day will probably mean shops, gyms etc closing again.

If shouldn’t if the cases are in clusters. If there are a hundred cases a day and random cases popping up frequently it’s a different matter. Is there any instance since reopening of a case linked to a ship, restaurant of other public environment? The more we know about this disease the more we know that 80-90% of spread is through close contact. Other modes do happen, follow the guidelines in public and private and this stays low.

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 05:12PM

stevek93 wrote: »

Why is worldometers.info showing 2 less, I also noticed this the other day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/

Denotification of 2 cases

is_that_so · 17-07-2020 05:12PM

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Gyms are open? Thought they'd be last, heavy breathing

Yeah they've been open since 29 June. Very strict on numbers. We have a booking app and every window in the place is flung open. It's never been cleaner!

BringBackMick · 17-07-2020 05:13PM

So is the rise in cases not a bit of a red herring in itself?

Like if we consider covid is evenly distributed through the population...

If we did 5,000 samples last week and got 15 cases, it is surely obvious that if we do 10,000 tests this week we would get 30 cases, thus no change in the spread of this disease!?

stevek93 · 17-07-2020 05:14PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Denotification of 2 cases

Thanks what does that mean?

Non solum non ambulabit · 17-07-2020 05:14PM

stevek93 wrote: »

Why is worldometers.info showing 2 less, I also noticed this the other day.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/ireland/

Denotifications on total cases number

is_that_so · 17-07-2020 05:14PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If shouldn’t if the cases are in clusters. If there are a hundred cases a day and random cases popping up frequently it’s a different matter. Is there any instance since reopening of a case linked to a ship, restaurant of other public environment? The more we know about this disease the more we know that 80-90% of spread is through close contact. Other modes do happen, follow the guidelines in public and private and this stays low.

I'm not suggesting it will, I am suggesting that's their thinking if cases do start to move upwards quickly. DeGascun hinted as much today.

YellowBucket · 17-07-2020 05:15PM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Denotifications on total cases number

Denitrification in the space of a few minutes? Seems a bit unlikely. Typo perhaps ?

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 05:16PM

stevek93 wrote: »

Thanks what does that mean?

just cases that may have been double counted etc

expectationlost · 17-07-2020 05:16PM

how many of these cases associated with clusters?

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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