Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

robfowler78 · 17-07-2020 03:53PM

Hurrache wrote: »

They're what, 3rd, 4th worse in the world?

This is what always happens when the Uk is mentioned. Your right they are a disaster there numbers are shocking I was just making the point sarcastically in my first post about the UK been hopeful while we are negitave even about good news. I happen to think we have done alright I'm more talking about the mood around even the good news.

robfowler78 · 17-07-2020 03:55PM

EDit wrote: »

Agree. TBH, I’m finding this period more annoying/depressing as everything is so vague. At the beginning, we had an objective, everyone knew what they had to do reduce the number of cases. Now the rules are contradictory and not well communicated and it all seems so ambiguous.

Anyway, fingers crossed for another sub-20 cases day. If we get enough of those, they’ll have to rethink the recent step-back, surely?

This is exactly what I'm talking about

wadacrack · 17-07-2020 03:56PM

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1284145330725027840

growleaves · 17-07-2020 03:56PM

EDit wrote: »

Correct me if I am wrong, but I thought the massive numbers predicted here were if we did nothing?

They were predicted as a worst-case scenario if we did nothing and if the disease had a 3% mortality rate (Sam McConkey). Also Leo Varadkar said that we would see a 30% rise in coronavirus cases every day and that this was not amenable to mitigation/suppression measures.

The revised prediction given in one of Leo Varadkar's last speeches as Taoiseach was 35-40k deaths in an unmitigated epidemic, which I don't believe but others are free to believe it.

robfowler78 · 17-07-2020 04:02PM

growleaves wrote: »

They were predicted as a worst-case scenario if we did nothing and if the disease had a 3% mortality rate (Sam McConkey). Also Leo Varadkar said that we would see a 30% rise in coronavirus cases every day and that this was not amenable to mitigation/suppression measures.

The revised prediction given in one of Leo Varadkar's last speeches as Taoiseach was 35-40k deaths in an unmitigated epidemic, which I don't believe but others are free to believe it.

And I could be wrong and it's not ment to be disrespectful to the people who have died, but as the number of new cases world wide sky rocket the actual percentage of people dying is lowering as in bigger numbers infected and recovering. I could be wrong on that as I'm no expert. Maybe long term it could be worse I don't know.

Pablo Escobar · 17-07-2020 04:03PM

growleaves wrote: »

They were predicted as a worst-case scenario if we did nothing and if the disease had a 3% mortality rate (Sam McConkey). Also Leo Varadkar said that we would see a 30% rise in coronavirus cases every day and that this was not amenable to mitigation/suppression measures.

The revised prediction given in one of Leo Varadkar's last speeches as Taoiseach was 35-40k deaths in an unmitigated epidemic, which I don't believe but others are free to believe it.

Those figures are reasonable when you consider the latest accepted death rate is between 0.6% and 0.7%

US2 · 17-07-2020 04:22PM

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Those figures are reasonable when you consider the latest accepted death rate is between 0.6% and 0.7%

Not much worse than the flu so ?

US2 · 17-07-2020 04:23PM

The mortality rate is with confirmed cases so it's likely to be a lot less than .06%

Arghus · 17-07-2020 04:24PM

robfowler78 wrote: »

Nobody wants to hold them up as a model but it can't be both ways as in people saying that we will have 100s of thousands of deaths from covid if we make a mess of things like UK etc and then kind of ignore that even England isn't seen that volume of deaths and they are a disaster.
Its getting a bit tiresome listening to our guys been mostly negative with the numbers we have. I can only imagine if we have a second wave how depressing they wi be.

There's a difference between negativity and caution. So far the DoH have been sober and cautious. They've struck, largely, the right approach.

It also isn't fair to say that they haven't been positive at times. It's been mentioned countless times that Ireland is currently in a good position with the rate of transmission and there has been constant acknowledgement from the authorities that people have made huge sacrifices over the last few months. People who don't hear this either don't pay attention or won't hear it.

Saying that we are in an uncertain precarious position right now is just a statement of fact. And a lot of people do not not like facts. Stating facts is not negativity.

You can ignore the facts of course, if you'd prefer. You can take a leaf out the United States' book and just pretend the problem goes away if you want it to.

The British government has been wrong time and time - and time - again during all this. Delusion is how they operate.

The government is essentially run by single issue arch Brexiters, they are so far out of their depth it's staggering. The reasons behind Brexit and the reality of its enablement are a testament to what happens when you place delusion rather than objectivity at the heart of everything you do. They are a crowd of politicians singularly incapable of facing facts.They can't. And this defines their approach to Covid: the same delusions, denialism and general incompetence.

Today Boris is putting a positivish spin on things and promising significant normality by Christmas. That's literally an impossible promise. There is no single human being on earth right now that can promise that or say with certainty what the state of affairs will be by then. It's clearly complete bollocks. And the BBC parrot it, without any real critique of what he's saying.

You want that? The totally unfounded BS from a series of proven liars? Well, go ahead. I prefer reality myself.

SeaBreezes · 17-07-2020 04:25PM

US2 wrote: »

Not much worse than the flu so ?

Sigh.

robfowler78 · 17-07-2020 04:26PM

Arghus wrote: »

There's a difference between negativity and caution. So far the DoH have been sober and cautious. They've struck, largely, the right approach.

It also isn't fair to say that they haven't been positive at times. It's been mentioned countless times that Ireland is currently in a good position with the rate of transmission and there has been constant acknowledgement from the authorities that people have made huge sacrifices over the last few months. People who don't hear this either don't pay attention or won't hear it.

Saying that we are in an uncertain precarious position right now is just a statement of fact. And a lot of people do not not like facts. Stating facts is not negativity.

You can ignore the facts of course, if you'd prefer. You can take a leaf out the United States' book and just pretend the problem goes away if you want it to.

The British government has been wrong time and time - and time - again during all this. Delusion is how they operate.

The government is essentially run by single issue arch Brexiters, they are so far out of their depth it's staggering. The reasons behind Brexit and the reality of its enablement are a testament to what happens when you place delusion rather than objectivity at the heart of everything you do. They are a crowd of politicians singularly incapable of facing facts.They can't. And this defines their approach to Covid: the same delusions, denialism and general incompetence.

Today Boris is putting a positivish spin on things and promising significant normality by Christmas. That's literally an impossible promise. There is no single human being on earth right now that can promise that or say with certainty what the state of affairs will be by then. It's clearly complete bollocks. And the BBC parrot it, without any real critique of what he's saying.

You want that? The totally unfounded BS from a series of proven liars? Well, go ahead. I prefer reality myself.

Looks like I rattle someone's cage to be honest not looking to worry about it your extent.

SeaBreezes · 17-07-2020 04:31PM

Thought this was interesting as Sweden is a test case of what happens with no controls in place.
Though schools do seem to be the super spreaders. Israel had to shut them down again and Sweden numbers dropping since school hols in June.

https://twitter.com/JoannaTeglund/status/1278305698183593984

drunkmonkey · 17-07-2020 04:32PM

wadacrack wrote: »

https://twitter.com/RobOHanrahan/status/1284145330725027840

He's taking sense now would someone go bludgeon that into our dear leaders.

wadacrack · 17-07-2020 04:33PM

robfowler78 wrote: »

Looks like I rattle someone's cage to be honest not looking to worry about it your extent.

Don;t think that's the case. Just seem to be getting it wrong at the moment. Borderline illogical statements tbh

growleaves · 17-07-2020 04:34PM

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Those figures are reasonable when you consider the latest accepted death rate is between 0.6% and 0.7%

The CDC current "best estimate" is 0.5%, but they do not rule out it being higher or lower (could be as low as 0.2%)

At 0.7%, if every single person in the country contracted covid that would give us approx 35k deaths.

Similarly, if every single person in the country contracted influenza every year we would have approx 4,900 influenza deaths per year. (0.1% of 4.9 million people)

Atlantic Dawn · 17-07-2020 04:34PM

How we can set a green list that conflicts with other countries green lists is beyond me, if we don't want our citizens travelling to UK we shouldn't be allowing UK citizens to travel here.

Santy2015 · 17-07-2020 04:35PM

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-tracking-every-global-effort-to-find-a-covid-19-vaccine-12030675

JP Liz V1 · 17-07-2020 04:37PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Dr De Gascun "We have a very good handle" on where infections are occurring and cases are "not popping up unpredictably" around the country.

Why is acting CMO Ronan Glynn saying different

Boggles · 17-07-2020 04:39PM

growleaves wrote: »

The CDC current "best estimate" is 0.5%, but they do not rule out it being higher or lower (could be as low as 0.2%)

At 0.7%, if every single person in the country contracted covid that would give us approx 35k deaths.

Similarly, if every single person in the country contracted influenza every year we would have approx 4,900 influenza deaths per year. (0.1% of 4.9 million people)

If every single person in Ireland contracted Covid there would be a fúck load more than 35,000 deaths.

The death rate is tied to a emergency systems ability to cope.

I can't believe people are still posting this scutter this far into the pandemic.

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 04:46PM

3 more deaths RIP
34 additional cases

stephenjmcd · 17-07-2020 04:48PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

3 more deaths RIP
34 additional cases

Dashboard hasn't been updated with the 24hr postives yet from what I can see. Be intersting to see what the 24hr number was

wadacrack · 17-07-2020 04:48PM

34 yea not liking the direction this is heading in tbh. Could be looking at 50 a day next week or two which would be a problem

Gael23 · 17-07-2020 04:50PM

Not good news. Nearly double yesterday

stephenjmcd · 17-07-2020 04:51PM

wadacrack wrote: »

34 yea not liking the direction this is heading in tbh. Could be looking at 50 a day next week or two which would be a problem

Or it could be back in the 20s like it was last few days. it's quite volatile, there's going to be days of fluctuation. Time to get used to seeing cases in the 20s and 30s so long as they stay around that.

We had 32 on Tuesday and then 13 and 15 so one day figures aren't going to be a great measure unless there's a continual daily trend of 30+

Let's see where the cases are coming from. Healthcare staff has been extremely high last 3 days

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 04:51PM

Analysis of cases as of midnight Wednesday 15th July - 25,696 cases (+19)

Healthcare Workers +2
Clusters +82
Cases associated with clusters +132

Age Range Affected
0-4 +1
5-14 No Change
15-24 +1
25-34 +9
35-44 +3
45-54 +1
55-64 No Change
65-74 +3
75-84 +1
85+ No Change

Cases by County
Carlow +1
Cork +4
Donegal +2
Dublin +11
Louth +1

PopTarts · 17-07-2020 04:53PM

Why won’t the media report on the healthcare staff. I know they probably like to dramatise travel / house parties etc but surely they should be looking at the welfare of the health care staff. Shocking the figures are so high still with these.

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 04:55PM

We're seeing cases in basically the same counties every day now, the main thing is there's no random cases popping up all over the gaff

wadacrack · 17-07-2020 04:56PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Or it could be back in the 20s like it was last few days. it's quite volatile, there's going to be days of fluctuation. Time to get used to seeing cases in the 20s and 30s so long as they stay around that.

Let's see where the cases are coming from. Healthcare staff has been extremely high last 3 days

The trend is clear not the 7 day average is continuing to rise. Their are cases throughout the country too. The likelihood of it suddenly halting at 30 is very slim at this stage. Effective contact tracing will become very difficult. Hopefully I'm wrong

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 04:56PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Dashboard hasn't been updated with the 24hr postives yet from what I can see. Be intersting to see what the 24hr number was

Cases updated but still no testing figures

branie2 · 17-07-2020 04:56PM

The cases should be going down, not up!

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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