Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Seamai · 17-07-2020 09:45AM

Eod100 wrote: »

No surprises there. Looking like US and UK won't be on green list. https://twitter.com/RedFMNews/status/1284050497436037130?s=19

So we can't go there (not that I really want to) but they're free to come here? Should cut both ways and be enforced rigorously.

17-07-2020 09:50AM

Seamai wrote: »

So we can't go there (not that I really want to) but they're free to come here? Should cut both ways and be enforced rigorously.

You can go there. That’s not what the green list means. It just means that you have to self isolate when coming back

caveat emptor · 17-07-2020 09:51AM

It seems people are happy with the data when it's going down.
When it's ticking up it can be explained away with conspiracy theories that the government is trying to mind control you.
It must be inaccurate for various statistical and data analytical issues that we can't possibly comprehend.

wadacrack · 17-07-2020 09:53AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Except you completely miss the concept of when having a low data set and you put a cluster into said data set R is impacted to an extent that doesn't give you the actual national picture. Current R here rocketed when 2 large clusters in Kerry and Siigo were added in. Should we remain at 20 cases a day for example those clusters will flush through after the 7 and 14 day R average has passed and therefore R then comes well back under 1. In both Kerry and Sligo 1 passed it on to 15. Theres your R increase there.

You also use Germany as an example, when they added in a meat plant cluster the rolling 4 day R value jumped to 2.88, guess what it was back under 1 two weeks later once that cluster had worked its way through the data. Did the German's suddenly start to worry and panic by stopping the relaxation of measures ? Nope they didn't because they knew the effect of the cluster on inflating R.

Switzerland also reproted R above 1 when reporting 10 cases per day.

Much like us and other countries lower the cases, put a higher number in suddenly it jumps. Its basic stuff.

Seems as if they roll out R whenever it suits and its jumped on if over 1 even when its not an accurate measure of the national picture.

Prof Nolan explained this every week including last week, the cynic in me thinks they got the number they wanted and knew people would see over 1 and think oh that's very bad and give people a kick up the arse, given as most people wouldn't understand how data modeling actually works

The problem is that its due to just one or two clusters. Their are cases through out the country. GAA Clubs now in Carlow, Derry, Dublin and Cork have all had to suspend activity. Health authorities were not as worried when it was mainly due to meat factories. Their has been only 4 or 5 counties who have went over 2 weeks without a confirmed case.

Seamai · 17-07-2020 09:53AM

Azatadine wrote: »

UK may have been overstating deaths FROM Covid.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/coronavirus-health-secretary-matt-hancock-orders-urgent-review-into-public-health-england-death-data-12030392

There have been articles in the UK media daily for the last 3 and a half months claiming that the figures are UNDERSTATED by between 25% and 35%. Many are putting the actual figure at well over 60,000 as opposed the official figure of 45,000.

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 09:54AM

wadacrack wrote: »

The problem is that its due to just one or two clusters. Their are cases through out the country. GAA Clubs now in Carlow, Derry, Dublin and Cork have all had to suspend activity. Health authorities were not as worried when it was mainly due to meat factories. Their has been only 4 or 5 counties who have went over 2 weeks without a confirmed case.

The GAA clubs have resumed activity because they test negative.

Gruffalux · 17-07-2020 09:54AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Except you completely miss the concept of when having a low data set and you put a cluster into said data set R is impacted to an extent that doesn't give you the actual national picture. Current R here rocketed when 2 large clusters in Kerry and Siigo were added in. Should we remain at 20 cases a day for example those clusters will flush through after the 7 and 14 day R average has passed and therefore R then comes well back under 1. In both Kerry and Sligo 1 passed it on to 15. Theres your R increase there.

You also use Germany as an example, when they added in a meat plant cluster the rolling 4 day R value jumped to 2.88, guess what it was back under 1 two weeks later once that cluster had worked its way through the data. Did the German's suddenly start to worry and panic by stopping the relaxation of measures ? Nope they didn't because they knew the effect of the cluster on inflating R.

Switzerland also reproted R above 1 when reporting 10 cases per day.

Much like us and other countries lower the cases, put a higher number in suddenly it jumps. Its basic stuff.

Seems as if they roll out R whenever it suits and its jumped on if over 1 even when its not an accurate measure of the national picture.

Prof Nolan explained this every week including last week, the cynic in me thinks they got the number they wanted and knew people would see over 1 and think oh that's very bad and give people a kick up the arse, given as most people wouldn't understand how data modeling actually works

I agree with your R number explanation.
What I cannot envision is an anonymous bunch called "they" who 'roll out' Rs that suit them or who get the numbers 'they wanted' so as to give people a kick up the arse. I spent a good few years amusing myself in conspiracy communities online and if there is one thing that those people love to reference it is the amorphous unknowable 'they". They who scheme and plot etc. I really do not believe this they exists in our govt or health authorities. I think they are genuinely trying to manage this pandemic in an Irish situation. They are making some mistakes. For sure. The travel from USA for example. But they are not plotting or rolling out manipulative stats.
This crisis has brought out many peoples inner conspiracy theorist I have found, for example the silly reactivity to masks as if it is a population control measure. It is a disease control measure. Just in general there is a cohort who seem to suddenly imagine the state is agin us, the poor trapped people. I really do not see this. I see people who have decisions to make being cautious as it is their rather onerous job to protect public health.

PS conspiracies exist

just not in this case

Seamai · 17-07-2020 10:01AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

You can go there. That’s not what the green list means. It just means that you have to self isolate when coming back

Ok but your average American coming here on a 9 day holiday is unlikely to be self isolating when they come here.
Are EU citizens still not banned from the US?

FishOnABike · 17-07-2020 10:11AM

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I like how the last paragraph start with "this clarity...."!!!!!

So the plan is that travel without self isolation (not calling it quarantine as you can go out to the shop and to exercise) to green countries is allowed if the trip is essential. But if not essential, self-isolation is still required, even if from a green country. Well, I think an essential trip at this stage includes seeing family

Well, that clears it up then!

It looks like the article https://www.rte.ie/amp/1153727/?__twitter_impression=true was edited (16:57 Thursday 16-07-2020) to clarify.

The purpose of the travel is not relevant to the requirement to restrict movement on return. Whim, holiday, essential travel it's all the same.

Quote ”The advice will be that travel to these countries will be possible without the requirement to self-isolate for a fortnight after returning home.

However, those travelling will be advised to exercise caution."

The advice to avoid non-essential international travel is unchanged.

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 10:17AM

Not sure if anyone posted this yet

HSE Daily Operations Update
13 in hospitals, no change.
3 admissions/confirmed cases in hospitals yesterday, 2 in the mater and 1 in Kilkenny.
8 in ICU, no change.
4 ventilations, decrease of 1.

Must say we have a remarkable ICU survival rate, don’t think anyone has died there for a number of weeks.

caveat emptor · 17-07-2020 10:21AM

Interesting that Johnson is advising "prepare for the worse, hope for the best" regards winter.
A life threatening illness will do that to you.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/17/uk-coronavirus-live-boris-johnson-3bn-plan-nhs-battle-ready-for-winter-second-wave

US2 · 17-07-2020 10:22AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Not sure if anyone posted this yet

HSE Daily Operations Update
13 in hospitals, no change.
3 admissions/confirmed cases in hospitals yesterday, 2 in the mater and 1 in Kilkenny.
8 in ICU, no change.
4 ventilations, decrease of 1.

Must say we have a remarkable ICU survival rate, don’t think anyone has died there for a number of weeks.

Do you have any stats on the ages of people admitted to icu and the age of survivors?

ACitizenErased · 17-07-2020 10:24AM

US2 wrote: »

Do you have any stats on the ages of people admitted to icu and the age of survivors?

We get none of that no

Polar101 · 17-07-2020 10:29AM

The Taoiseach seems to be in Brussels at the moment. Do you think he will fill in the form and self-isolate for 14 days when he returns, or will the rules not apply to people like him?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0717/1153828-eu-summit/

Random sample · 17-07-2020 10:34AM

Polar101 wrote: »

The Taoiseach seems to be in Brussels at the moment. Do you think he will fill in the form and self-isolate for 14 days when he returns, or will the rules not apply to people like him?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0717/1153828-eu-summit/

He is in essential business.

He will be tested on return and again after 7 days.

Gael23 · 17-07-2020 10:35AM

Random sample wrote: »

He is in essential business.

He will be tested on return and again after 7 days.

He still has to follow the rules

Blazer · 17-07-2020 10:39AM

Polar101 wrote: »

The Taoiseach seems to be in Brussels at the moment. Do you think he will fill in the form and self-isolate for 14 days when he returns, or will the rules not apply to people like him?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0717/1153828-eu-summit/

ah jesus man. Its not as if he's off galivanting to the beach or hitting the pubs as other holidaymakers.
I'd be against letting in people from abroad but there are some essential travel that needs to be done and this is one of them.
Regardless of what I think of mehole he's still the taoiseach and some things need to be done in person.

Random sample · 17-07-2020 10:42AM

Gael23 wrote: »

He still has to follow the rules

He’s the only Taoiseach we’ve got, so I can’t see who we could send instead.

stargazer 68 · 17-07-2020 10:42AM

Blazer wrote: »

ah jesus man. Its not as if he's off galivanting to the beach or hitting the pubs as other holidaymakers.
I'd be against letting in people from abroad but there are some essential travel that needs to be done and this is one of them.
Regardless of what I think of mehole he's still the taoiseach and some things need to be done in person.

Not disputing that he needs to be there. However Government advice is anyone entering Ireland from abroad is to isolate for 14 days. That should apply to him and his entourage however as he is going to be tested on day and day 7 then it doesn't apply. Can't have 1 rule for some and a different rule for the rest of us! Lead by example.

Random sample · 17-07-2020 10:44AM

stargazer 68 wrote: »

Not disputing that he needs to be there. However Government advice is anyone entering Ireland from abroad is to isolate for 14 days. That should apply to him and his entourage however as he is going to be tested on day and day 7 then it doesn't apply. Can't have 1 rule for some and a different rule for the rest of us! Lead by example.

Maybe we should excuse ourselves from the recovery fund as an example.

We have to recognise that politicians have a job to do, even if they aren’t from the party we voted for. It would be ridiculous to oppose this trip.

stargazer 68 · 17-07-2020 10:45AM

Random sample wrote: »

Maybe we should excuse ourselves from the recovery fund as an example.

We have to recognise that politicians have a job to do, even if they aren’t from the party we voted for. It would be ridiculous to oppose this trip.

As I said - not disputing the trip - but follow the rules on your return

Wolf359f · 17-07-2020 10:47AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Not sure if anyone posted this yet

HSE Daily Operations Update
13 in hospitals, no change.
3 admissions/confirmed cases in hospitals yesterday, 2 in the mater and 1 in Kilkenny.
8 in ICU, no change.
4 ventilations, decrease of 1.

Must say we have a remarkable ICU survival rate, don’t think anyone has died there for a number of weeks.

Last ICU death was June 30th
Start of this month there was 12 in ICU and since then at least 3 new admissions and 7 discharges and of course zero deaths.
I say at least, as, if the number in ICU stays the same in a 24hr period, I'm assuming it's no new admissions and no new discharges.

It could very well be 1 new admission and 1 new discharge etc....
You could go through the breakdown of specific hospital ICU numbers each day and see if there's any extra in one and a reduction in another to get more accurate numbers.

US2 · 17-07-2020 10:47AM

First of all, I dont see why he HAS to be there in person unless he is physically handing them something?
If hes tested on return he should still have to isolate at least until the result of his second test 7 days later are back. The hypocrisy on this thread is unbelievable.

17-07-2020 10:48AM

stargazer 68 wrote: »

As I said - not disputing the trip - but follow the rules on your return

I disagree. He needs to do whatever he needs to do to in order to carry out his duty as effectively as possible. That is in all of our interests. He’s not going to do that by sitting at home in front of a computer screen.

ro_chez · 17-07-2020 10:58AM

US2 wrote: »

I wont be seeing my parents, I'll be isolating at home after I get back. Dont see yer issue atall

And to hell with everyone else you come into contact with before hand, eh?

As long as you have your fun, thats all that matters!

petes · 17-07-2020 11:03AM

US2 wrote: »

First of all, I dont see why he HAS to be there in person unless he is physically handing them something?
If hes tested on return he should still have to isolate at least until the result of his second test 7 days later are back. The hypocrisy on this thread is unbelievable.

You don't HAVE to go on holidays but you seem to like letting people know you are.

US2 · 17-07-2020 11:04AM

ro_chez wrote: »

And to hell with everyone else you come into contact with before hand, eh?

As long as you have your fun, thats all that matters!

Who else am i going to come in to contact with ? Youd swear I'm guaranteed to pick up the virus the way yer carrying on. The chances of me picking it up are around 9MILLON to 1

US2 · 17-07-2020 11:05AM

petes wrote: »

You don't HAVE to go on holidays but you seem to like letting people know you are.

I'm going to isolate on my return, I don't think MM will.

Get Real · 17-07-2020 11:08AM

stargazer 68 wrote: »

. Can't have 1 rule for some and a different rule for the rest of us! Lead by example.

You actually can have one rule for some and different for the rest.

We've had it applied to commuting and domestic travel for retail staff, health staff, transport workers, gardaí, fire and ambulance service workers.

If we let everyone engage in the different rules as those above, it would have been business as usual the past few months.

Similarly, if we let everyone travel on a whim, it'd be equally pointless.

There are times when rules and exemptions to those rules are needed. Even when they were relaxed, and we got 105 mins in the pubs/restaurants, people (as is human) stayed 240mins, 300mins. Its a case of "sure nobody has said anything" or "we got to stay 5 hours last night"

When you apply travel to 4 million people, there's going to be a pushing of the boundaries, so better to have a rule there. Even with the rule, people will come and go, so bringing in loopholes for the general population would see an increase of taking the mick.

I wouldn't begrudge MM his trip abroad if it means I can't (shouldn't) go.

stargazer 68 · 17-07-2020 11:12AM

[QUOTE=Get Real;114060359
When you apply travel to 4 million people, there's going to be a pushing of the boundaries, so better to have a rule there. Even with the rule, people will come and go, so bringing in loopholes for the general population would see an increase of taking the mick.

I wouldn't begrudge MM his trip abroad if it means I can't (shouldn't) go.[/QUOTE]

And the rule is isolate on your return - which he is not going to do.

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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