Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Boggles · 16-07-2020 12:15PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Either we keep things closed indefinitely until there's a vaccine (if that ever occurs) or we reopen and manage surges as they come.

Option C. You do both.

Identify what is high risk and mitigate for wider society and the economy.

That way managing a surge becomes less burdensome.

hotmail.com · 16-07-2020 12:17PM

This is going to prolong the Covid payments for sure. Thousands in the pub and entertainment industry.

AlmightyCushion · 16-07-2020 12:19PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

The virus was always going to spread more as restrictions were relaxed. Opening the pubs is going to cause it to increase more, whether that's on July 20th or August 10. The initial goal of the closures was to increase our testing and ICU capacity. We've done that.

Either we keep things closed indefinitely until there's a vaccine (if that ever occurs) or we reopen and manage surges as they come.

One goal of the restrictions was to get the virus down to a manageable level. We have done that. We want to stop it getting to an unmanageable level that led to the restrictions in the first place.

Spreading more as we re-open is and was expected. However, it is the rate of increase that is the problem. A small increase that leads to a higher daily case number but a stable,manageable one is not a problem. A larger increase that doesn't stabilise is a problem.

Eod100 · 16-07-2020 12:25PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

This is going to prolong the Covid payments for sure. Thousands in the pub and entertainment industry.

It will. Could see that going well into Autumn or new year even. People will always have to put food on table, pay rent, mortgages. Only right state pays them. If anything it should be more. State is being paid to borrow currently

NegativeCreep · 16-07-2020 12:25PM

hmmm wrote: »

Table service, tellies off, time limits - that would work I think, but how would you enforce it? The vitners themselves could do with coming forward with suggestions to how they would police their industry - there's a lot of pubs taking the piss in the current phase, that has to have influenced government opinion. It's the more responsible pubs which are losing out ultimately.

You’d enforce it the same way it’s being enforced now. And I agree vintners need to come up with solutions.

is_that_so · 16-07-2020 12:26PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

One goal of the restrictions was to get the virus down to a manageable level. We have done that. We want to stop it getting to an unmanageable level that led to the restrictions in the first place.

Spreading more as we re-open is and was expected. However, it is the rate of increase that is the problem. A small increase that leads to a higher daily case number but a stable,manageable one is not a problem. A larger increase that doesn't stabilise is a problem.

This does seem predicated on the R0 number only, which is unreliable with very low numbers, as we've been told. At our current levels there doesn't seem to be much indication of a massive rise.

AlmightyCushion · 16-07-2020 12:27PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We're clearly not doing that either. If we were, we'd be keeping the restrictions in areas where cases are relatively high and continuing the reopening in areas where cases are low or nonexistant.

A pub reopening in a rural village that hasn't seen cases in months or may not have had a single case isn't high risk.

If pubs were closed in one area of the country but opened in another, do you not think you would get a load of people travelling from the closed area to the open area to go for pints?

Boggles · 16-07-2020 12:27PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

A pub reopening in a rural village that hasn't seen cases in months or may not have had a single case isn't high risk.

What do you think happens if word gets out there is a pub open 3 villages over?

Also trying to micro manage public houses in a global pandemic is hardly the greatest use of everyone's time.

Duke of Url · 16-07-2020 12:28PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

This is going to prolong the Covid payments for sure. Thousands in the pub and entertainment industry.

And this is where Government focus should be.

The Government are right to not give a toss about the noise coming from people wanting to go on the piss.

Focus on the people who are working in the industry and work with the Pub owners and VFI to come up with a credible plan to reopen it.

Its for the pub industry to protect their customers. All I've heard from them and VFI so far is that the Government should them them what to do. I believe they are doing this so they cant be held responsible if a large outbreak occurs.

AlmightyCushion · 16-07-2020 12:30PM

is_that_so wrote: »

This does seem predicated on the R0 number only, which is unreliable with very low numbers, as we've been told. At our current levels there doesn't seem to be much indication of a massive rise.

It is unreliable at low case numbers but when the 7 day moving average has been steadily increasing for weeks then it indicates that the higher r value is correct.

Boggles · 16-07-2020 12:30PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

We already had travel restrictions earlier in the year. I don't see why these can't be reintroduced on a more localised basis. Other countries are doing that.

Seal off the village the pub is open in?

Boggles · 16-07-2020 12:31PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

I'm not sure it would result in the kind of chaos you seem to be implying. I personally wouldn't be arsed travelling that far for a pub.

This may come as a shock to you, but the vast majority of people are not you.

Boggles · 16-07-2020 12:34PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

No. Restrict travel out of towns/cities/counties where cases are on the rise.

So close off Dublin?

Yeah, I have no problem with that. :pac:

is_that_so · 16-07-2020 12:34PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

It is unreliable at low case numbers but when the 7 day moving average has been steadily increasing for weeks then it indicates that the higher r value is correct.

Fair enough. It's even more reason why they should have made the Phase 4 decision last week. There was really no point waiting an extra week.

Boggles · 16-07-2020 12:35PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Are you suggesting the vast majority of people would travel a few villages over? If so I think you're significantly overestimating the lure of the pub in modern Ireland. If not I have no idea what your point is.

You mean the lure of a pub that has been closed for nearly 6 months.

AlmightyCushion · 16-07-2020 12:37PM

Doctor Jimbob wrote: »

Are you suggesting the vast majority of people would travel a few villages over? If so I think you're significantly overestimating the lure of the pub in modern Ireland. If not I have no idea what your point is.

People broke the previous travel restrictions for all sorts of stupid reasons. I can see plenty doing it to go for pints.

yosemitesam1 · 16-07-2020 12:40PM

AlmightyCushion wrote: »

That is true but the 7 day moving average has been increasing steadily for the past 3 weeks. 3 weeks ago it was in the single figures, now it is as 20. That shows the virus is spreading more. It might not be a problem and it might stay at that level but it is better to delay the opening of pubs to be sure of that. Because if it is not staying stable at that level, then if the spread is increasing as it is and you throw opening the pubs on top of that it will just exacerbate the issue.

Testing has doubled in that timeframe so the numbers don't necessarily represent an increase.
There's a difference between counting clinical diagnosis versus population monitoring. Nphet are treating the numbers as if they are an accurate representation of the population as a whole, this is incorrect.

The way to properly monitor what the disease is doing at a population level would be to monitor a random subset of the population (with or without symptoms) over time. This would show whether covid is increasing or not.
The current testing protocol is open to error (or manipulation) from changes in detection rate or testing numbers.

But there are no field scientists in nphet, all are only used to working in a clinical environment

AlmightyCushion · 16-07-2020 12:45PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Testing has doubled in that timeframe so the numbers don't necessarily represent an increase.
There's a difference between counting clinical diagnosis versus population monitoring. Nphet are treating the numbers as if they are an accurate representation of the population as a whole, this is incorrect.

The way to properly monitor what the disease is doing at a population level would be to monitor a random subset of the population (with or without symptoms) over time. This would show whether covid is increasing or not.
The current testing protocol is open to error (or manipulation) from changes in detection rate or testing numbers.

But there are no field scientists in nphet, all are only used to working in a clinical environment

You are correct that the increase in tests taken could be what resulted in the increased number of cases. However, it would be hard to determine that. Why not just hold off for a couple of weeks to ensure that is the case?

Even if they did do random sampling. If daily case numbers were staying steady of even decreasing but the random sampling was increasing people wanting the pubs to re-open would just dismiss the random sampling numbers because the daily case numbers are decreasing.

NotMOL · 16-07-2020 12:46PM

I honesty think now is the perfect time for the GOV to make a new bank holiday...we already have the least amount of bank holidays in the EU and now the virus has ruined all our bank holidays since April.

joeguevara · 16-07-2020 12:48PM

Did Ronan Glynn have any opinion on the pubs not serving food remaining closed?

is_that_so · 16-07-2020 12:50PM

joeguevara wrote: »

Did Ronan Glynn have any opinion on the pubs not serving food remaining closed?

There'll be a briefing today so that and other questions will no doubt be asked.

political analyst · 16-07-2020 12:52PM

If the virus was as deadly and as contagious as the authorities say it is then wouldn't there be special bio-hazard bins for the disposal of single-use protective masks? Yet there are no such bins in public places that I know of.

US2 · 16-07-2020 12:53PM

political analyst wrote: »

If the virus was as deadly and as contagious as the authorities say it is then wouldn't there be special bio-hazard bins for the disposal of single-use protective masks? Yet there are no such bins in public places that I know of.

yep if its as dangerous and contagious as they say, hairdressers, cinemas, restaurants etc wouldnt be open. Completely non essential.

ShineOn7 · 16-07-2020 12:57PM

Seen on Reddit Ireland

Hey guys! Micheál Martin here. Hope yis are well. Just wanted to give you some very clear, consistent and transparent advice for phase 4.

Pubs are now closed! But they're also open in a strange way if you just buy a few chicken goujons with your pints or whatever.

Also, whatever you do, do not fcuking travel abroad. With all the yanks coming in as well that could lead to serious issues. Anyway, the green list for countries safe to travel to comes out Monday!

Masks are compulsory now in shops. Well sorry, not 'compulsory' as such but we have highlighted that issue as a priority. A KEY priority!

We need to be vigilant for this phase because cases are sky rocketing lately. I mean this increase isn't reflected in anyway in our figures now to be honest. In fact, the numbers have been consistently low for 3 weeks but we are VERY concerned about this GIGANTIC spike in numbers.

Okay, I'm sure that's cleared things up. Be safe.

MM

Boggles · 16-07-2020 12:57PM

yosemitesam1 wrote: »

Testing has doubled in that timeframe so the numbers don't necessarily represent an increase.

Proactive testing in certain situations have multiplied.

I see no data that suggests community testing where the most instances of the virus are now arising have multiplied to the same degree.

Therefore the 0.3% positive rate is a false number.

The important number which I'm sure NPHET have is what is the positive rate in the community compared to testing in the community, this is larger than 0.3%.

Again it is small numbers, but the trend is up 55% on the last 14 days.

If it is just a blip and the trend levels off, some form of phase 4/5 will be able to go ahead.

If they had opened phase 5 and the trend continued with the added danger of phase 5 opening then there could be a real problem come the end of September.

is_that_so · 16-07-2020 12:57PM

The wage subsidy may be extended out to October. By the looks of it, they may be considering bailing out the tourism sector.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0716/1153688-wage-subsidy/

B.A._Baracus · 16-07-2020 12:57PM

LiquidZeb wrote: »

And there are just as many examples of people pulling together and doing what has to be done for the greater good. As has been happening here for the past 4 months with little complaint from the majority of the population, credit where it's due.

Majority? Hardly. A portion? Of course.

LiquidZeb · 16-07-2020 01:00PM

B.A._Baracus wrote: »

Majority? Hardly. A portion? Of course.

Majority? Definitely. How come our numbers are so low otherwise? Painting people out to be idiots to stroke your own ego while at the same time ignoring the facts.

Drumpot · 16-07-2020 01:00PM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I'd agree with all of that.
They are triaging the economy.
With school opening so close they aren't risking the pubs as an additional risk to this.

If they really want to help publicans then they should allow them to use open space where possible to serve drinks. Like parks opposite pubs. Even fields etc.
This is a non linear problem and they should really start thinking of solutions with virus in mind. I know weather is ****e here but use marquees like weddings etc with the walls open. It's windy here so open air is much less risky.

Given all the events are postponed, event organisers would benefit too.

They'd really want to be looking at solutions for the next 2 / 3 years.

Definitely agree with your timescale.

People need to stop looking at this as weeks or days, this is going to be around for months to years at least. A prudent approach is not to just lock stuff down but to start encouraging long term plans to live with the virus.

I can understand the anxiety with regards to schools, I’d been saying it the other day that I thought they were really focusing on making sure schools will
Open but they need to be clearer much quicker. I do wonder if maybe they should of just pushed pubs out to start of September because if they extend phase 4 again it will look very bad planning.

As a company I think prudence would be to plan adapt for years of this virus. I’m doing it myself but I think people need to mentally get comfortable with this probable fact. This will help them adapt their own behaviours and work with specifying to change (Instead of fighting the inevitable).

I think a surge of numbers is inevitable at some stage. I think there’s a reasonable chance of an emergency situation when flu/cold season kicks in. I think the prudent thing is to change our behaviors now so these issues aren’t worse when they happen.

We are connected globally to every country. We can limit our exposure but ultimately this is going to be a battle that we are learning to manage as we go along. Mistakes will inevitably be made but an unforgivable mistake would be to under estimate the virus. I believe the western countries that will succeeed will be the ones that adapt better.

FishOnABike · 16-07-2020 01:02PM

Eod100 wrote: »

So non essential travel still advised against but they are publishing a green list on Monday. Does anyone see a logic in this? https://twitter.com/morningireland/status/1283643972942991360?s=19

Yes, nonessential travel can still be advised against but if you do have to travel, there will be a list of countries from which if you travel to/back will not need to quarantine / restrict your movement for fourteen days when coming into Ireland.

If you travel to or through a country not on the green list you will be required to quarantine / restrict your movement for fourteen days when coming into Ireland.

It seems perfectly logical to me.

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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