Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

shinzon wrote: »

Theres something more to this then just the r number being between 1.2-1.8 in such small case numbers and house parties and fears for a second wave. Im not sure what that something is but im convinced theres something there not telling us

Shin

As another poster said probably bank holiday, the same as it was back the last few bank holidays, sorry we can't start the reopening because there's a bank holiday we don't trust everyone to behave

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Yup there is that too. I'd love to know though if we're at 20/30 cases in 3 weeks time and they go ahead with phase 4 questions will be asked as to well what was the point in those 3 weeks when the cases are more or less the same

It's about whether the cases are rising or falling, how many contacts everyone has, mobility data, and all the other parameters feeding into the models trying to predict the future behaviour of the virus. There will be a lag between initial infection, hospitalisation, ICU & death, and we can't wait until things become obvious to start trying to get control. Obviously the models are showing there have been changes in the inputs which are heading in the wrong direction.

7 day moving average July 7th was 9
7 day moving average July 14th jumped to 20

Erring on the side of caution is the correct move for me. Claiming that its just due to small clusters etc is not a good argument. I think most counties have had cases within the last 2 weeks. If we open pubs quickly now schools unlikely to open and Sports unlikely to proceed. Another hard lockdown increasingly likely and everything the country has worked hard for to protect society will be lost. People need to try and think of the long term implications if we rush out of this. Its going to be long haul dealing with this virus, pushing back plans 3 weeks likely to prove to be a good decision in the long term. Countries that act quickly on a sudden surge have fared much better as seen in Asia . Israel and Eastern Europe sadly now are struggling with a 2nd wave

hmmm wrote: »

Yep, and then the hope was that they would level off.

Obviously our data is showing an increase, and the leveling off is uncertain. So we'll wait a bit, because otherwise we might end up struggling like Spain is currently.

Then repeat in three weeks time?

Is the plan to get to 0 cases?

I don't think we will ever get there

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Then repeat in three weeks time?

Is the plan to get to 0 cases?

I don't think we will ever get there

The plan is to stabilise the number of cases, not get to zero. We knew that reopening might mean a few more cases, but with contact tracing and general social distancing the hope was that we could maintain that level. That's still the aim, but the decisions are based on the data and where the modelers think the slope is pointing.

Gruffalox wrote: »

Unlike boards posters who can rage without consequence the people who have to make these sorts of decisions will have to live with the actual historical legacy. They can see places like Israel. They cannot be as coldly utilitarian as some on here want them to be. Politicians elsewhere eg UK or Sweden have to live with knowing their actions led to increased death numbers. If I was in charge I would err on the side of caution. Build a fire pit in the backyard and drink saluting the moon for a few more weeks - the pubs are not all that.

tens of thousands of peoples livelihoods are dependent on the pubs. Thousands of small business owners across the country are devastated by this decisions after huge preparation to re-open on Monday, now thrown into uncertainty.
Why dont you tell them to go howl at the moon.
Not everything comes down to just wanting a few pints.

Widdensushi wrote: »

What's with the extra restrictions in supermarkets, has there been a surge in cases transmitted there? The measures taken previously seemed to work very well.

From my experience (purely anecdotal, of course) people are becoming less compliant with social distancing and other prior “rules” that we had/have in supermarkets. For example, Go back a month or two at my local supermarket and you’d be hard pressed to see anyone shopping in groups of 2 or more (ie, all single shoppers) and there were lots with very full trolleys (suggesting a once-weekly shop). Now, there are people shopping in pairs or even all the family and the self-service and less-than-10 items tills are packed. I’m even finding myself that I am popping to the shop much more often than I was before the restrictions were lifted.

Perhaps under those circumstances, they think that making people wear masks is preferable/more achievable versus asking people to revert to the old practices?

Eod100 wrote: »

The Vintners have lost the plot https://twitter.com/BreakfastNT/status/1283668289521057798?s=19

They are very irate, justifiably IMO. The call on it by the government was just far too late.

is_that_so wrote: »

They are very irate, justifiably IMO. The call on it by the government was just far too late.

I can understand their frustration to a point but this is a ridiculous suggestion tbf

GazzaL wrote: »

The Government / NPHET have lost the plot. They're destroying these people's livelihoods. They're talking about making it necessary to wear masks in shops when it wasn't even a requirement at the peak of the pandemic. Complete stupidity.

I think the decision looks worse in context of pubs with food opening 3 weeks earlier. If they hadn't this wouldn't have looked as bad. I can understand their frustration but NPHET and government have difficult balancing act. If they opened up too early and there were clusters in pubs people's confidence in going to them would drop. Hopefully they will open in 3 weeks and be able to reap benefit of the pent up demand for last 4/5 months

Eod100 wrote: »

I can understand their frustration to a point but this is a ridiculous suggestion tbf

It's a reaction to something that happened last night. Let's not forget the stellar contributions some of our "experts" have made without the slightest provocation. I think they really need to nail the government on reopening in Week 2 of the "extension".They are also not the only things affected by this change.

is_that_so wrote: »

It's a reaction to something that happened last night. Let's not forget the stellar contributions some of our "experts" have made without the slightest provocation. I think they really need to nail the government on reopening in Week 2 of the "extension".They are also not the only things affected by this change.

Yup they'll need guidelines in the second week at the latest, 10 days before reopening is when restaurants got them.

If they don't get them 10 days out their getting screwed again for the 10th

owlbethere wrote: »

Pubs started getting barrel deliveries in preparation for Mondays reopening. Thats a n issue right there due to cash flow problems due to being closed since March. I don't know if the breweries will be accepting returns and I forget the use by date on barrels. The barrel deliveries might be gone to waste now.

Perhaps the breweries only get paid when they are used.

I am not a pub frequenter at all, but I do feel sorry for them. Many have ploughed a lot of money into getting ready.

So many are being punished for the actions of so few.