Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Jim_Hodge · 15-07-2020 08:49PM

Minnie Snuggles wrote: »

I would hope that the rate of testing in countries would be also taken into consideration.

Agreed. I'm just wondering how he conjured up his green list.

D.Q · 15-07-2020 08:49PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Did a poll did you? So far the feeling I'm getting around here is positive enough and most people willing to give it a few more weeks and the masks issue is no big deal at all.

Depends on who you talk to but don't suppose everybody agrees with you,

No problem with the masks. Can't hurt to wear them give it a go.

I have a problem with the differentiation between pubs based on a substantial 9e meal.

I have a problem with the flights coming in basically unchecked.

It's not even the pubs. I can get a pint, I can see my friends. The day to day isn't affected.

It's the complete and utter lack of any consistent vision or logic.

If they came out and decided to completely eradicate the virus, I wouldn't agree but I would comply. As long as ALL public health measures were pointed towards that goal. So close ALL the pubs and stop the flights. At least that would be consistent and make sense.

Currently all the messages are so contradictory and don't make any sense at all. And that's just a depressing place to be for me. If we're restricting our freedoms for the greater good, I'd like to be able to see how the greater good is being achieved. Not some headless chicken, hodgepodge attempt at directions. We've all given up alot, we deserve to be given valid reasons why.

theballz · 15-07-2020 08:50PM

Mary Lou (aka “where’s me gaf?”) has truly been a disgraceful and incompassionate moronic political leader since this pandemic hit this country. “Where’s me gaf” disappeared when things were at there worst and now she’s back using it to fuel her political agenda.

That women is a disgrace and a distraction to our recovery.

schmoo2k · 15-07-2020 08:51PM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Martin suggesting that phase 4 will go ahead on 10th August. He seems fairly confident of it.

So if case numbers are still the same in 3 weeks time what on earth will be different then from now.

Just the knowledge the steps taken (or not taken - flights for example) have made no material difference, then open the pubs and see if they make a difference, then open the schools and see if they make a difference.

Each one will have some affect and we need to be able to react quickly. Its not like reverting to the original schedule is a huge surprise?

JP Liz V1 · 15-07-2020 08:52PM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

RTE news just announced that civil servants who leave the country for non essential travel will have to take 2 weeks annual/unpaid leave when they return to isolate. That will go down well with unions

What about any of our government going abroad, isolate for 2 weeks on returning

ACitizenErased · 15-07-2020 08:52PM

theballz wrote: »

Mary Lou (aka “where’s me gaf?”) has truly been a disgraceful and incompassionate moronic political leader since this pandemic hit this country. “Where’s me gaf” disappeared when things were at there worst and now she’s back using it to fuel her political agenda.

That women is a disgrace and a distraction to our recovery.

as far as i know this is the covid-19 thread

Jim_Hodge · 15-07-2020 08:53PM

D.Q wrote: »

No problem with the masks. Can't hurt to wear them give it a go.

I have a problem with the differentiation between pubs based on a substantial 9e meal.

I have a problem with the flights coming in basically unchecked.

It's not even the pubs. I can get a pint, I can see my friends. The day to day isn't affected.

It's the complete and utter lack of any consistent vision or logic.

If they came out and decided to completely eradicate the virus, I wouldn't agree but I would comply. As long as ALL public health measures were pointed towards that goal. So close ALL the pubs and stop the flights. At least that would be consistent and make sense.

Currently all the messages are so contradictory and don't make any sense at all. And that's just a depressing place to be for me. If we're restricting our freedoms for the greater good, I'd like to be able to see how the greater good is being achieved. Not some headless chicken, hodgepodge attempt at directions. We've all given up alot, we deserve to be given valid reasons why.

Grand but I was asking how you maintained people were mostly against the latest moves. You are. Some others are. But that's as much as you can maintain .

What Username Guidelines · 15-07-2020 08:53PM

I think from the last recession I’ve been primed to hate FF and I didn’t really know why. I left college in 2006, worked in the building industry and lost my job in 2010. Managed to get work quick enough in another industry and have been in it since. Still didn’t fully understand why I hated FF. But now I do. I’ve no interest in pubs personally but a serious lack of balls in this government and what is in my opinion a massive misreading of the data.

timsey tiger · 15-07-2020 08:53PM

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Exactly, as a pandemic ends, R0 doesn’t actually approach zero, it approaches 1. This is because so few cases will have a heavier effect on the calculation. 500 cases going to 1000 is simply explained as R0 is 2. But a small cluster can inflate the numbers, like 1 cases in sligo infecting 16 makes R0 16. So you’ve got to view it in the context of R0 of 2 vs 16 when new cases are 1000 vs 16.

This is utter rubbish. As the pandemic ends. The last patent doesn't pass it to anyone so. R = 0.

When you have low numbers you get wild fluctuations especially. if you are unlucky enough to have a superspreader event.

There however is no law that says R has to approach 1. This would just imply that the virus has just become endemic in the population at a stable level and by definition isn't going to end any time soon, with on average each case passing it onto one other.

Seamai · 15-07-2020 08:55PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Plenty are. France for example, cafes are fairly central to life and serve the same function as a pub. Italy and Spain are similar. How are they getting on?

I've been to Italy a lot and I can tell you that I've rarely seen any of the locals drunk falling around in a bar, you'll see far more physical contact in an Irish bar once people get a few drinks in them. While they serve the same function they work very differently.

robfowler78 · 15-07-2020 08:55PM

CalamariFritti wrote: »

Exactly may sentiment. Just edited the previous post. Its going to get ugly yet.

Problem is you cant ask that question with out been told "as long as it takes". That's not much good to people who have lost their jobs and kids that need to be in school. I can see it getting really ugly when the covid payment is gone jobs start to be lost.

Mad and unpopular as it is Until we see a full open world dealing with this virus we won't know how badly the effects of it will be long term and over all.

spockety · 15-07-2020 08:55PM

Strazdas wrote: »

A sneak preview of the 'green list' perhaps. These seven European countries have lower rates of Covid-19 than ourselves :

Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Hungary, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta

The green list won't only be countries the same or lower than us. It'll be "similar" rates, probably below a threshold like 10 or 15 per 100k over 14 days. It'll be designed to include most of our EU partners.

ACitizenErased · 15-07-2020 08:57PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

This is utter rubbish. As the pandemic ends. The last patent doesn't pass it to anyone so. R = 0.

When you have low numbers you get wild fluctuations especially. if you are unlucky enough to have a superspreader event.

There however is no law that says R has to approach 1. This would just imply that the virus has just become endemic in the population at a stable level and by definition isn't going to end any time soon, with on average each case passing it onto one other.

How is it utter rubbish? They literally said in the briefings that r approaches 1 as numbers reduce. R doesn't go down in epidemics.

JP Liz V1 · 15-07-2020 08:58PM

theballz wrote: »

Mary Lou (aka “where’s me gaf?”) has truly been a disgraceful and incompassionate moronic political leader since this pandemic hit this country. “Where’s me gaf” disappeared when things were at there worst and now she’s back using it to fuel her political agenda.

That women is a disgrace and a distraction to our recovery.

TBF, she did have the virus bad herself

Stheno · 15-07-2020 08:58PM

Strazdas wrote: »

A sneak preview of the 'green list' perhaps. These seven European countries have lower rates of Covid-19 than ourselves :

Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Finland, Hungary, Estonia, Cyprus, Malta

Hmm I was hoping to holiday in Malta this year.

I'm not so sure about the plane though

It is a direct flight however.

I sent my FF TD another email asking how in the name of god they can justify the completely illogical approach taken by MM tonight.

D.Q · 15-07-2020 08:58PM

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Grand but I was asking how you maintained people were mostly against the latest moves. You are. Some others are. But that's as much as you can maintain .

Ok so zeroing in on a few words in my post to score a point? You win that point, good for you. Obviously not everyone agrees with me. But enough do to create that echo chamber vibe. Dunno what else to say to you tbh.

r93kaey5p2izun · 15-07-2020 09:00PM

I heard today that contact tracing is only going back 48h now. Is that true? Does anyone have any links to the reasoning?

Someone I know was told by a friend they were with for the day 4 days ago that they have tested positive, but friend won't be officially counted as a contact and offered a test by HSE contact tracing. GP has advised paying for a private test as he feels the risk is still there.

nocoverart · 15-07-2020 09:00PM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

I'd rather get my tent and go Courtown if that's the options available

Would love Poland on the list, a truly underrated gem of a country.

Strumms · 15-07-2020 09:03PM

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Plenty are. France for example, cafes are fairly central to life and serve the same function as a pub. Italy and Spain are similar. How are they getting on?

Cafes in the main, in Italy, Spain and France are not backdrops for people just going out and getting hammered. Cafes in these countries have people just dropping in for food and a glass of wine only, both AM and PM... coffee and a pastry, sharing a bottle of wine, a beer, maybe two... they don’t per say, go in to get hammered. The ambiance too is relaxed and relaxing, mostly table service.

timsey tiger · 15-07-2020 09:04PM

thelad95 wrote: »

R number is no longer relevant. Cluster of ten pops up, theoretically gives an R number of 10, all close contacts are traced and tested, isolate for two weeks and recover and this cluster is controlled.

R number is relevant when it's vastly out of control, think late March to early May. When the case number is low and oscillating it makes no sense.

The media at present is nothing short of disgraceful in its over sensationalism. Dublin Live had a headline tonight about how the government is delaying the opening of the pubs due to the arrival of a second wave. Jesus wept.

R number is still relevant, from little acorns giant trees grow.

However, when the numbers are low we have time to adjust the environment to reduce it.

Also it will fluctuate wildly with random superspreader events which are not an issue if we are aware of them.

If however, R is consistentlyvabove 1 and we don't do anything to mitigate it then we will have trouble coming down the tracks slowly at first almost like you wouldn't notice and then real fast.

Seamai · 15-07-2020 09:07PM

Stheno wrote: »

Hmm I was hoping to holiday in Malta this year.

I'm not so sure about the plane though
It is a direct flight however.

I sent my FF TD another email asking how in the name of god they can justify the completely illogical approach taken by MM tonight.

Malta's probably one of the safest places, they stopped all flights at an early stage and it paid high dividends. Given it's close proximity to Italy and with one of the highest population densities in the world I thought it would be a huge problem there.

timsey tiger · 15-07-2020 09:07PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

How is it utter rubbish? They literally said in the briefings that r approaches 1 as numbers reduce. R doesn't go down in epidemics.

What they are talking about isn't ending the epidemic, they are talking about suppressing it at a low stable level.

Stheno · 15-07-2020 09:07PM

Sarai Ugly Video wrote: »

I heard today that contact tracing is only going back 48h now. Is that true? Does anyone have any links to the reasoning?

Someone I know was told by a friend they were with for the day 4 days ago that they have tested positive, but friend won't be officially counted as a contact and offered a test by HSE contact tracing. GP has advised paying for a private test as he feels the risk is still there.

https://www2.hse.ie/conditions/coronavirus/testing/contact-tracing.html

Think it's something to do with you can be asymptomatic for at least two days but still infectious?

GazzaL · 15-07-2020 09:08PM

What happens if a shop forces someone with breathing difficulties to wear a mask, and the person then collapses and hits their head. Who's responsible? Why, after 4 months, are the Government suddenly looking to force mask wearing on people in shops?

NegativeCreep · 15-07-2020 09:08PM

nocoverart wrote: »

Would love Poland on the list, a truly underrated gem of a country.

I work with 2 polish lads who haven’t been home all summer to see their family. It’d be lovely if Poland was in the green list For them and thousands like them across the country.

nocoverart · 15-07-2020 09:09PM

timsey tiger wrote: »

R number is still relevant, from little acorns giant trees grow.

However, when the numbers are low we have time to adjust the environment to reduce it.

Also it will fluctuate wildly with random superspreader events which are not an issue if we are aware of them.

If however, R is consistentlyvabove 1 and we don't do anything to mitigate it then we will have trouble coming down the tracks slowly at first almost like you wouldn't notice and then real fast.

Ah sure I still have Six cupboards full of Pasta and a box room full of toilet roll from the first wave of scaremongering Armageddon. All's good!

timsey tiger · 15-07-2020 09:12PM

nocoverart wrote: »

Ah sure I still have Six cupboards full of Pasta and a box room full of toilet roll from the first wave of scaremongering Armageddon. All's good!

Don't worry there is always brexit.

stephenjmcd · 15-07-2020 09:12PM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

How is it utter rubbish? They literally said in the briefings that r approaches 1 as numbers reduce. R doesn't go down in epidemics.

Tried to explain this earlier and just got a smart arse reply.

Doesn't seem to understand if you drop a cluster such as Sligo & Killarney into a low base number you get a massive jump. Such as Germany reporting 2.88 after adding a meat plant cluster, guess what it dropped back down again after that cluster worked its way through.

Watch here when these 2 clusters work there way through R drops again. Its not rocket science that they've been the cause in a sudden jump given the size.

There was also an increase to 1 in Switzerland back in early June when they were reporting a handful of cases and all cases were linked hence R was 1.

But sure look like trying to talk to a brick wall.

Atlantic Dawn · 15-07-2020 09:14PM

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

What about any of our government going abroad, isolate for 2 weeks on returning

Not sure, Ryanair had a dig at Micheál Martin yesterday saying is he goes to Europe and doesn't isolate it makes a mockery of the rules...

If Micheál Martin does not quarantine for 14 days after visiting Brussels this week, then why should any other Irish or EU citizen be treated differently.

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryanair-to-cut-1000-ireland-uk-flights-in-aug-and-sept/

fritzelly · 15-07-2020 09:20PM

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

Not sure, Ryanair had a dig at Micheál Martin yesterday saying is he goes to Europe and doesn't isolate it makes a mockery of the rules...

https://corporate.ryanair.com/news/ryanair-to-cut-1000-ireland-uk-flights-in-aug-and-sept/

tis grand - he's getting a test when he comes back and another 7 days later

Nothing can happen

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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