Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

stephenjmcd · 15-07-2020 10:07AM

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

Maybe the full data isn't disclosed in daily swabs? It's more the attitude 'that's not right because we say so'. Very prevalent on here. Like you saying you're sick of experts but posting your take on things all day! At least they have the quals.

And I've a qual as you say in Data Analytics so when it comes to data I've a fair idea what I'm on about.

The full data is there to see, there's multiple reports on it issued by HSE along with testing numbers, swabs taken etc.

So yes there are legitimate queries as to what way data is reported FROM HSE to HPSC and how that data is then reported in terms of daily cases annoucned as the 24hr totals and the numbers reported dont add up especially in the last few days theres been a wide margin which would suggest yesterday's cases included a large proportion from the weekend.

This will either be confirmed or cleared up slightly with the county data which is 48hrs behind.

Its not an attitude of thats not right because we say so, there's quite clear data which you've clearly not looked at which would when you look at it show that 32 for example was not yesterday's accurate 24hr cases.

I'll gladly have an open discussion regarding data if you know what your talking about.

Renjit · 15-07-2020 10:13AM

Gruffalox wrote: »

In this first run scenario only about 3 or 4% of people caught the virus here. It is only about 5 to 7% in harder hit countries albeit with some exceptional hotspot outliers. So really we are wide open as hosts and almost as vulnerable as we were at the start. I view now as being similar to January, mooching along at the bottom of a graph, a virus looking again for a foothold among us, and that a couple of months from now, with life pretty much back to normal as it is, and especially with social gathering indoors, we will see a significant increase as we did back in March.
This may seem depressing to some but I think it is realistic and while sad there is no use in being down. It is better to prepare mentally for October or November to be a tricky enough time and then be relieved and pleased when or if it is not. That's just my unprofessional laywoman's opinion. I felt the same the day in January I first read about a strange virus in Wuhan.

Take precautions, wear masks where social distancing is not possible. That's all we can do and more effective than someone dying or admitted to hospital.

NegativeCreep · 15-07-2020 10:16AM

cnocbui wrote: »

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/14/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread/index.html

That doesn’t confirm asymptomatic spread. It just confirms that people can be asymptomatic. It confirms that this is a mild to nothing disease for most.

tom1ie · 15-07-2020 10:18AM

Deleted User wrote: »

So in summary on the posts on this matter:

- Its like Flu so we will have a winter surge
- What about the summer surge in southern US states?
- Air conditioning
- Why no summer Flu spike?
- Its not like flu

Truth is we dont know yet.

Conclusion of the linked Harvard study:

I thought the reason we see winter spikes in the likes of the flu and colds, is because people are indoors and closer together therefore the flu and colds can transmit easier to people via droplets from sneezing, getting picked up off surfaces etc.
Conversely people are generally outdoors in summer so the spread is not as effective.
This is the case in Northern Europe but in places with moderate winters people can be outdoors a lot more so they don’t get as many or as bad a spike.

Just my two cents worth but I could be talking ****e. :pac:

Ae Fond Kiss · 15-07-2020 10:18AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

And I've a qual as you say in Data Analytics so when it comes to data I've a fair idea what I'm on about.

The full data is there to see, there's multiple reports on it issued by HSE along with testing numbers, swabs taken etc.

So yes there are legitimate queries as to what way data is reported FROM HSE to HPSC and how that data is then reported in terms of daily cases annoucned as the 24hr totals and the numbers reported dont add up especially in the last few days theres been a wide margin which would suggest yesterday's cases included a large proportion from the weekend.

This will either be confirmed or cleared up slightly with the county data which is 48hrs behind.

Its not an attitude of thats not right because we say so, there's quite clear data which you've clearly not looked at which would when you look at it show that 32 for example was not yesterday's accurate 24hr cases.

I'll gladly have an open discussion regarding data if you know what your talking about.

But you may not have all the data to analyse. How else would there be discrepancies? They're not pulling the figures out of the air.

Renjit · 15-07-2020 10:22AM

South Africa seems to be taking the lead in Africa. Australia is in second peak.

Beasty · 15-07-2020 10:24AM

Threads merged

schmoo2k · 15-07-2020 10:29AM

Renjit wrote: »

South Africa seems to be taking the lead in Africa. Australia is in second peak.

In so far as their dally numbers are half of their previous peek - but I will give you the curve is not great, but not as bad as the first outbreak.

Non solum non ambulabit · 15-07-2020 10:31AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats the thing, you'd need NI to deviate from the UK and join up with our policies, that won't happen.

Even if it was possible like you say then what, shut ourselves off ? again not possible

I have to agree. The DUP are unlikely to isolate themselves from the UK. Politically they would have a huge problem with this. The DUP are known to put the union ahead of all else.

El Weirdo · 15-07-2020 10:37AM

ZX7R wrote: »

For the republic of Ireland to take a stance like new Zealand this is what the political parties would have to do.
First:
A referendum to change our constitution
To end our claim to the northern county's
So the border can be closed.
Then you would have to end the good Friday agreement.
Then you would have to end our common travel area with UK this will also require a referendum.
Then you would need to have a third referendum to leave the European Union as it would be the only way for us to fully close our borders to a free moment of EU citizens.
This group can call for a zero approach for Ireland but they are only looking at from a medical view.
There is no balance from there thinking and the way they are pushing there view is
A little bit dangerous.

I think you'll find we had a referendum to rescind our claim on the six counties in 1999. It passed, you might be interested to know.

Can you also tell me why we would need a referendum to end the CTA with the UK?

And the whole free movement of EU citizens bit is more to do with being able to work and live all across the EU, not really actual travel. We certainly wouldn't have to leave the EU if we wanted to close our borders for health reasons.

snotboogie · 15-07-2020 10:42AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Sorry but with the greatest respect I think it is you that does not understand.

How are you supposed to achieve a coivd free Ireland with an open border with the UK and a different jurisdiction of the island operating a different policy ??

Regardless of how long the lockdown would be we still come back to open border and 2 different policies on the island so how exactly do you achieve a covid free island with NI not implementing quarantine for a large number of countries and people free to drive into the Republic with no measures in place as its not feasible to shut down the NI border.

Would love to hear how its possible.

Obviously it would require a unified policy with Northern Ireland.

You haven't addressed the point though, you have totally misunderstood the focus of Covid Free Island, which is to eliminate lockdowns and go back to normal. Yet you are positing the position as indefinite lockdowns, the exact opposite of what they are calling for.

snotboogie · 15-07-2020 10:43AM

El Weirdo wrote: »

I think you'll find we had a referendum to rescind our claim on the six counties in 1999. It passed, you might be interested to know.

Can you also tell me why we would need a referendum to end the CTA with the UK?

And the whole free movement of EU citizens bit is more to do with being able to work and live all across the EU, not really actual travel. We certainly wouldn't have to leave the EU if we wanted to close our borders for health reasons.

None of his points make sense, the state is free to instate emergency measures to close borders due to the pandemic as many EU countries have already done in the last few months.

ACitizenErased · 15-07-2020 10:51AM

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

But you may not have all the data to analyse. How else would there be discrepancies? They're not pulling the figures out of the air.

We receive all test data daily. Hospital tests, community tests and combined total, then a number of positive tests. The positive tests number should always be bigger than confirmed cases as some people are tested twice.

In the 72hrs before yesterday, there was 60 confirmed cases reported yet only 48 positive tests. That’s the point. Makes no sense why they’re backlogging and reporting cases late. Why report 10 one day and 32 the next day when you could report 21 each day?

ZX7R · 15-07-2020 10:51AM

El Weirdo wrote: »

I think you'll find we had a referendum to rescind our claim on the six counties in 1999. It passed, you might be interested to know.

Can you also tell me why we would need a referendum to end the CTA with the UK?

And the whole free movement of EU citizens bit is more to do with being able to work and live all across the EU, not really actual travel. We certainly wouldn't have to leave the EU if we wanted to close our borders for health reasons.

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because since the agreement in 1922 it was confirmed by legislation under the good Friday agreement also under other legislation.
These legislations can not be over ruled by the government it would have to go to the people to decided.
The freedom of movement for EU members covers all aspects including personal travel.

For Ireland to close our borders under the emergency health reasons we have to declare an emergency .
For us to do this now we would have to have lost complete control of the virus.
The European Union is not at the highest level of severity in regards to the pandemic.
So even if we wanted to we can not close our external borders ,we can close internal borders for the reason of containment of an outbreak of the virus local lockdowns.
So as it stands at the moment we would have to leave the EU to close our borders

plodder · 15-07-2020 10:53AM

https://news.yahoo.com/second-wave-covid-hits-israel-162129002.html

That is concerning about Israel. Last time I looked at their graph was early June I think. So, any idea that this might "fizzle out" naturally in warm weather is well dead.

I think we are on the correct course. Suppressing to zero is simply impossible but we are absolutely right to be very cautious about re-opening.

ACitizenErased · 15-07-2020 10:55AM

plodder wrote: »

https://news.yahoo.com/second-wave-covid-hits-israel-162129002.html

That is concerning about Israel. Last time I looked at their graph was early June I think. So, any idea that this might "fizzle out" naturally in warm weather is well dead.

I think we are on the correct course. Suppressing to zero is simply impossible but we are absolutely right to be very cautious about re-opening.

Anyone know what their testing system is like?

That graph looks very very similar to the US graph, suggesting that their first wave never actually ended

cnocbui · 15-07-2020 11:01AM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

That doesn’t confirm asymptomatic spread. It just confirms that people can be asymptomatic. It confirms that this is a mild to nothing disease for most.

I know it's a mild disease for most. The fearmongering itself is frightening. The Italians reported that 99% of those who die have another serious illness.

This pushback against the notion of asymptomatic contagiousness is quite incredible. Ok, here's the CDC take on the topic: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-1595_article

Reported cases of infected persons who transmitted the virus to others while presymptomatic or asymptomatic have occurred within families or households (9–11,13–17), during shared meals (10,12), or during visits with hospitalized family members (9,13). An inherent confounder to these reports from China is the inability to entirely rule out alternative SARS-CoV-2 exposure in the community early in the outbreak, when transmission in the community may have been undetected.

However, cases of presymptomatic transmission have been reported from other countries before widespread community transmission occurred. A report from Germany documented infection of a German businessman after exposure to a mildly symptomatic colleague visiting from China (18). Before becoming symptomatic, this businessman exposed 2 other colleagues who subsequently received a COVID-19 diagnosis but did not have contact with the primary patient from China or any other known source. A report from Singapore described 7 COVID-19 clusters resulting from presymptomatic transmission; presymptomatic primary patients varied from persons with travel from high-incidence countries to persons exposed in the local community (19). All primary patients experienced distinct periods of initial exposure and presymptomatic close contact with secondary patients who had no other known exposure risks.

There is sufficient proof of asymptomatic contagion for the CDC and WHO. Anyone who disagrees with the quality of the evidence they have based their opinion on should take it up with them.

El Weirdo · 15-07-2020 11:03AM

ZX7R wrote: »

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because

Well, that's me convinced.

Boggles · 15-07-2020 11:07AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anyone know what their testing system is like?

That graph looks very very similar to the US graph, suggesting that their first wave never actually ended

It looks nothing like the US graph.

Arytonblue · 15-07-2020 11:09AM

snotboogie wrote: »

Obviously it would require a unified policy with Northern Ireland.

You haven't addressed the point though, you have totally misunderstood the focus of Covid Free Island, which is to eliminate lockdowns and go back to normal. Yet you are positing the position as indefinite lockdowns, the exact opposite of what they are calling for.

A unified policy with Northern Ireland is pretty much a complete non starter, making the whole concept effectively useless. This is the same NI govt that willingly goose-stepped its way into Brexit in spite of the huge damage it would cause, just ain't happening.

The other massive flaw in this idea is that it would institute another Stage 2 lockdown after we had already gone through one for several months. People are only just getting back some sense of normalcy, with new conditions and cautions still in place. Shops and businesses are only just reopening and you are basically expecting everybody to just disregard all that, go back into lockdown (for a few months supposedly, again no real certainty timewise) and then what? Emerge by year's end into a new utopia free of Covid? I'm sorry like, but it just sounds ludicrous and impractical to me.

Huge part of the effectiveness of the lockdown was mass compliance from the public, as in you can't force an entire population to suspend their lives, you have to hope they willingly abide within reason, which we did. I seriously doubt you'll get that same level of compliance from a good section of the population now, simply because they already did what they were asked to do, we flattened the curve and have incredibly manageable numbers now. What exact reasoning will be given for this? Beyond a seriously naive hope to 'eradicate' the virus.

Where this sudden drive for 'Covid free Ireland' is coming from is beyond me, if it's simply just 'guarenteed second wave about two months ago' Killeen and McConkey then I would suggest ignoring them, they've been banging that drum ad nauseum since the beginning, and have rightly been ignored by the people in power who actually matter.

snotboogie · 15-07-2020 11:11AM

cnocbui wrote: »

I know it's a mild disease for most. The fearmongering itself is frightening. The Italians reported that 99% of those who die have another serious illness.

This pushback against the notion of asymptomatic contagiousness is quite incredible. Ok, here's the CDC take on the topic: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-1595_article

There is sufficient proof of asymptomatic contagion for the CDC and WHO. Anyone who disagrees with the quality of the evidence they have based their opinion on should take it up with them.

People are confusing asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic. There is still confusion over asymptomatic spread but as you posted, pre-symptomatic spread is well documented and accepted. The issue is that people hear that there is no evidence of asymptomatic spread and think that people cannot spread the disease without symptoms, which ignores pre-symptomatic contagion.

Ae Fond Kiss · 15-07-2020 11:11AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

We receive all test data daily. Hospital tests, community tests and combined total, then a number of positive tests. The positive tests number should always be bigger than confirmed cases as some people are tested twice.

In the 72hrs before yesterday, there was 60 confirmed cases reported yet only 48 positive tests. That’s the point. Makes no sense why they’re backlogging and reporting cases late. Why report 10 one day and 32 the next day when you could report 21 each day?

There must be a timing issue in how both positive tests and cases are released. However at the end of a week I'm sure one equates to the other.

cnocbui · 15-07-2020 11:13AM

Being pre-symptomatic also falls within the set asymptomatic.

ACitizenErased · 15-07-2020 11:24AM

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

There must be a timing issue in how both positive tests and cases are released. However at the end of a week I'm sure one equates to the other.

The positive tests figure is always bigger than the confirmed cases figure as I stated but the last 3 days for whatever reason this wasn’t the case.

15-07-2020 11:28AM

snotboogie wrote: »

Obviously it would require a unified policy with Northern Ireland.

You haven't addressed the point though, you have totally misunderstood the focus of Covid Free Island, which is to eliminate lockdowns and go back to normal. Yet you are positing the position as indefinite lockdowns, the exact opposite of what they are calling for.

Normal is free movement of people. New Zealand is far from normal

caveat emptor · 15-07-2020 11:31AM

ZX7R wrote: »

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because since the agreement in 1922 it was confirmed by legislation under the good Friday agreement also under other legislation.
These legislations can not be over ruled by the government it would have to go to the people to decided.
The freedom of movement for EU members covers all aspects including personal travel.

For Ireland to close our borders under the emergency health reasons we have to declare an emergency .
For us to do this now we would have to have lost complete control of the virus.
The European Union is not at the highest level of severity in regards to the pandemic.
So even if we wanted to we can not close our external borders ,we can close internal borders for the reason of containment of an outbreak of the virus local lockdowns.
So as it stands at the moment we would have to leave the EU to close our borders

I'm afraid I have to call bull-sh!t again. Did every country on the list I posted earlier "lose complete control of the virus"?

SeaBreezes · 15-07-2020 11:32AM

NegativeCreep wrote: »

That doesn’t confirm asymptomatic spread. It just confirms that people can be asymptomatic. It confirms that this is a mild to nothing disease for most.

Italians disagree:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348

The long-term effects of COVID-19, even on people who suffered a mild infection, could be far worse than was originally anticipated, according to researchers and doctors in northern Italy.

Psychosis, insomnia, kidney disease, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness and mobility issues are being identified in former coronavirus patients in Lombardy, the worst-affected region in the country.

So little is known of the virus that any long-term planning is guess work.

Doctors believe that even the youngest and mildest infected are at risk of their lives being changed forever, and it could take years to become apparent. Whole workforces could become less productive as a consequence.

The advice from Italy is simple: Don't get infected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/

timsey tiger · 15-07-2020 11:46AM

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Anyone know what their testing system is like?

That graph looks very very similar to the US graph, suggesting that their first wave never actually ended

With respect that graph, is not at all similar to the US graph. They had gotten the new case level down to close to zero, the US never got it's new incidence cases below 3/4 of the peak.

Unfortunately they took their eye off the ball and completely relaxed everything hence the rebound. They have resignations from the health area in disgust of the top leadership over the recent handling.

We are in immenent danger of following them back up the curve, I'm glad I'm only responsible for my immediate family and can work from home.

wadacrack · 15-07-2020 11:47AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Italians disagree:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-warning-from-italy-effects-of-covid-19-could-be-worse-than-first-thought-12027348

The long-term effects of COVID-19, even on people who suffered a mild infection, could be far worse than was originally anticipated, according to researchers and doctors in northern Italy.

Psychosis, insomnia, kidney disease, spinal infections, strokes, chronic tiredness and mobility issues are being identified in former coronavirus patients in Lombardy, the worst-affected region in the country.

So little is known of the virus that any long-term planning is guess work.

Doctors believe that even the youngest and mildest infected are at risk of their lives being changed forever, and it could take years to become apparent. Whole workforces could become less productive as a consequence.

The advice from Italy is simple: Don't get infected.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/

People need to be educated on this. This isn't fear mongering. The studies clearly show that this virus is doing strange things to the body and recovery is pretty complex. Looking simply at the death rate does not tell the full picture. Zero Covid approach is the one I favor and alot of scientists believe it can be done

El Weirdo · 15-07-2020 11:49AM

ZX7R wrote: »

Ok fair point on the six county's
A referendum would be needed for the common travel area because since the agreement in 1922 it was confirmed by legislation under the good Friday agreement also under other legislation.
These legislations can not be over ruled by the government it would have to go to the people to decided.
The freedom of movement for EU members covers all aspects including personal travel.

The Good Friday Agreement doesn't even mention the CTA.

And what pieces of legislation say that we would need to have a referendum to change or get rid of it?

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

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