Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Non solum non ambulabit · 15-07-2020 09:12AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

Wahahaha how do you know that?

Why is a virus seasonal?

Why are respiratory viruses seasonal

You are naive and little bit blinkered if you think this will behave any differently. Comes down to fluid dynamics & immune system condition probably & molecular biology. Experts (who we so loath on this thread) don't even know. So how can a randomer on the internet know? Of course this is MORE infectious, The mechanism by which it infects people is the same. So while "there is no evidence" There is circumstantial evidence to suggest this.

I googled it for you though. Now spot the differences.

https://www.insider.com/when-is-flu-season

I agree with you on seasonality of respiratory viruses. This virus seems different and we are still learning about it but the evidence so far suggests that it is not seasonal. Evidence of case numbers in the middle of the summer being the primary input.

15-07-2020 09:14AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I want solutions not problems bucko.
Think outside the box.

Get the north to go along with the strategy.
Even better get UK to go along with it.
We can do it.
Look at the lions rugby team?

Then you would need to have a third referendum to leave the European Union as it would be the only way for us to fully close our borders to a free moment of EU citizens.

Every fvcking mainland EU country closed its borders. Bullsh!t.

Confounding of facts. There.

Rugby tour? Really?
Also, every European country didn't close their borders, just closed the majority of crossings so they could control and monitor access. Everyone who was legally entitled to enter under common travel area still had to be allowed in

stephenjmcd · 15-07-2020 09:17AM

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

There are posters who think they are being extremely positive but border on silly at times. I think they are afraid, whistling in the dark.

Yesterday evening was a prime example when cases were announced. We had 32. Nothing that remarkable about the figure given we're opening up and some rises evident in other countries.

There was an amount of crap posted about it by the 'we know everything and don't worry be happy group'. Stuff like that figure is too high for the official 24 hour cases release I have. What way are they releasing stats?

Some posters think they have an inside line and are on NEPHET! The figure itself was nothing terribly worrying, just something to be kept an eye on with travel the main problem.

I agree with you the figure was nothing terribly worrying but as we've seen its reported as being awful.

But on your earlier point sorry but thats BS your spouting about 'don't worry be happy'.

If as some of us do you track data, the total postive cases logged in the last 24hrs is 15, not 32 as was reported yesterday evening. Like was said yesterday the numbers reported as postive swabs v numbers reported daily has been fairly well off since the wekeend. So yes there are questions around the reporting of data and how it filters through from the HPSC so there's quite clearly a delay and that will be evident when the county data is released.

So throw around labels to groups all you want but the stats are there for you to see if you wish. The total postive will be updated later today to give the postive swabs in the last 24hrs, compare it then with the numbers announced and you'll see what people have been discussing surrounding a possible lag in reporting.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

SeaBreezes · 15-07-2020 09:18AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

I agree with you on seasonality of respiratory viruses. This virus seems different and we are still learning about it but the evidence so far suggests that it is not seasonal. Evidence of case numbers in the middle of the summer being the primary input.

The virus thrives on indoor spread. Air conditioning in the summer helps it, central heating in winter.
So winter is a worry yes.

That plus a flu surge at the same time would kill many people.

polesheep · 15-07-2020 09:19AM

D.Q wrote: »

That group are the same group that were trying to slow down the last phase of reopening.

Seems very much like a group of epidemiologists who can't believe their luck that they're in the spotlight.

As soon as I see that Gerry Killeen tosser mentioned it discredits the whole thing.

As with all people who advocate for extreme restrictions, you have to wonder if they have skin in the game in terms of vulnerable relatives and how objective they really are.

ZX7R · 15-07-2020 09:19AM

Christy42 wrote: »

Plenty of EU countries shut their borders to other EU countries.

NI will mean we never get it down to 0. That border can't be closed from a practical perspective. We can stop UK citizens from coming over via boat/plane if we want to though. All international laws can be easily broken if no one cares.

EU countries closed there borders in early March by declaring a national health emergency.
We did not we never declared an health emergency under EU rules.

Renjit · 15-07-2020 09:20AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Do we know that? Seems to be surviving well enough in Texas and Florida

For first run, immunity is significant factor compared to seasons. Depletion of susceptible hosts may add more weight to seasonal factor.

"New viruses have a temporary but important advantage – few or no individuals in the population are immune to them. Old viruses, which have been in the population for longer, operate on a thinner margin — most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with transmitting among the few who aren’t. In simple terms, viruses that have been around for a long time can make a living — spread through the population — only when the conditions are the most favorable, in this case in winter."
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-covid-19-go-away-on-its-own-in-warmer-weather/

Renjit · 15-07-2020 09:22AM

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

The evidence suggests that immunity only lasts for a short few months.

The evidence keeps on changing too. Further, how many of these studies considered T memory cells?

caveat emptor · 15-07-2020 09:23AM

Deleted User wrote: »

Rugby tour? Really?
Also, every European country didn't close their borders, just closed the majority of crossings so they could control and monitor access. Everyone who was legally entitled to enter under common travel area still had to be allowed in

Yeah never have I ever........bull****.

Foot and mouth. #cowslivesmatter.

The BBC news site of the time gives more than enough hints of what went on: "Irish premier Bertie Ahern tells the Irish Parliament that more than 1,000 police and soldiers are on duty at border crossings, ports and airports" and "Irish Defence Minister Michael Smyth criticises Northern Ireland border controls as not being rigorous enough to prevent foot-and-mouth spreading into the Irish Republic. He calls for a greater Royal Ulster Constabulary presence at the border."

https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/want-to-know-what-a-hard-border-looks-like-the-2001-foot-and-mouth-crisis-holds-the-key-37824268.html

Europe[edit]
European Union/Schengen Area: The European Council agreed on 17 March to ban incoming travel other than citizens from countries in the European Union, European Economic Area, Switzerland and United Kingdom, long-term residents and people with long-term visa or residence permits, family members of EU and EEA citizens, medical personnel and people responsible for transport of goods for 30 days.[10][147][148] Each country has to implement the decision on the national level. Ireland choose to opt out from the decision due to the Common Travel Area. The agreement was to close borders for 30 days starting at noon on 17 March, though enforcement did not begin immediately as planned.[149] By the end of March, all EU member states (except Ireland) and all associated Schengen states (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland) had introduced the travel restriction.[150] The restriction was later repeatedly prolonged until 30 June.[151][152][153] Some member states went even further and also prohibited EU and EEA citizens from entering, unless they are permanently living in the country or transiting to their home country, which is generally still possible. On 1 July, global travel ban was replaced by non-global.[154]
Austria: Closed land borders for persons not having medical certificate confirming negative test for SARS-CoV-2 within the last four days. Visitors arriving by air without proof of recently testing negative will be allowed into the country, but then placed in mandatory quarantine for 14 days or until they test negative.[155]
Belgium: Closed its borders to non-essential travel on 20 March.[156]
Bulgaria: A temporary ban on entry imposed on all persons arriving from Italy, Spain, France, the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Luxembourg and non-EU/Schengen countries. Visitors from some countries can transit through Bulgaria to return home.[157]

Croatia: Closed its borders to non-citizens on 19 March.[158]

Czech Republic: Partially closed its borders to travellers from high-risk countries on 14 March.[159] Closed its borders to all non-residents on 16 March.[160] From 24 April, EU nationals were allowed to enter for short business trips or study, but only with a recent negative COVID-19 test.[161][162] On 15 June, global entry ban was replaced by non-global restrictions.[163]

Cyprus: The Cypriot government announced that only its citizens, along with other Europeans working on the island and people with special permits will be allowed into the country for a 15-day period beginning on 15 March.[164] This ban was extended until 30 April 2020.[165] Commercial flights in and out of the country have been banned until 28 May.[166]

Denmark: Closed its borders to all non-citizens 14 March.[167] This includes a ban on crossing the border for all tourism, but exempts travellers with "credible purpose" such as non-citizen Danish residents.[167]

Estonia: Effective 17 March 2020, foreign travellers are not allowed to enter. Right of entry will remain for citizens and those with a right of residence, and foreign citizens whose next of kin live in Estonia. Transit is allowed for foreigners not showing signs of the coronavirus. A mandatory two-week quarantine will be set for anyone entering the country, with the exception of Latvians and Lithuanians from 15 May.[168]

Finland: Closed its borders on 19 March 2020, except for Finnish citizens returning to Finland, foreigners returning to their countries of origin, essential work-related travel, and goods. Finnish citizens returning home are recommended to quarantine themselves for 14 days after arrival.[169]

France: Banned all non-essential travel into the country on 6 April.[170]

Germany: Effective 16 March 2020, Germany has partially closed its borders with Austria, Denmark, France, Luxembourg, and Switzerland. However, goods will continue to flow between the countries to curb panic-buying.[171] Non-essential travel from Austria, Denmark, France, Italy, Luxembourg, Spain, Switzerland, and non-EU/Schengen countries was banned.[172]

Greece: Initially suspended all passenger flights to and from Italy on 14 March, excluding cargo and sanitary ones.[173] On 16 March, Greece closed its borders with Albania and North Macedonia, only permitting the transportation of goods and the entry of Greek nationals and permanent residents, suspended ferry services to and from Italy and air links to Spain and prohibited all cruise ships and sailboats docking in Greek ports.[174] The same day it was announced that a 14-day home restriction will be mandatory for those who enter the country.[175] On 23 March, Greece suspended all passenger flights from the UK as well as all air, sea, rail and road connections with Turkey, with an exception for Greek citizens and those who have residence permits, as well as trucks and ships that transport goods.[176] On 28 March, Greece suspended all commercial flights to and from Germany and the Netherlands[177] and on 15 April the Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority extended, until 15 May, the ban on passenger flights to and from Italy, Spain, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Germany. Exemptions include cargo, sanitary, humanitarian, state, military, ferry and Frontex flights, as well as flights in support of the Hellenic National Healthcare System, those for repatriation of Greek citizens and emergency flights.[178][179]

Hungary: Hungary closed its borders for all passenger transport on 17 March and only Hungarian citizens and permanent residents from the EEA are allowed to enter.[180]

Italy: Banned non-essential travel into the country on 28 March. Only travelling for health needs, work requirements and reasons of absolute necessity is allowed.[181]

Latvia: Effective 17 March 2020 all international passenger connections by air, railway, sea and road, were to be cancelled. Only Latvians and foreigners with residency rights in Latvia will be able to enter the country from outside the Schengen Area,[182] but entry of foreign citizens by private vehicle from other Schengen member countries was still allowed.[183]

Lithuania: Closed the border for foreigners, except for those with residence permits, effective 00:00 (UTC+02:00) 16 March.[184]

Malta: As of 21 March 2020, island of Malta has closed air borders, except ferry flights, cargo flights, humanitarian flights and repatriation flights.[185]

Norway: Effective 16 March 2020, Norway closed its airports temporarily. Foreigners are turned away, and exemptions are made for Norwegians returning from abroad, and for goods.[186]

Poland: Effective 15 March, entry ban for all foreigners except for those with residential or work permits, and 14 days' quarantine on all people entering.[187][188][189][190] Beginning 17 March 2020, Norway introduced a quarantine obligation for all who arrive in Norway.[191]

Portugal: Closed its border with Spain to non-essential travel such as tourism on 16 March.[192]

Romania: Effective 22 March 2020, Romania banned foreign citizens from entering the country with the exception of official residents or those who are transiting the country.[193]

Slovakia: Closed its borders to all non-residents on 13 March.[194] Closed all three international airports and required all residents returning from abroad to 14 days quarantine in government designated quarantine facility.[194] Violators may be fined up to 1659 EUR.[195]

Slovenia: On 11 March, Slovenia restricted movement at the borders with Italy and later with Austria. Non-residents with symptoms needed negative COVID test, not older than three days. Cross-border public transport was suspended. Banned international commercial flights on 17 March.[196][197][198]

Spain: Closed borders to non-residents on 17 March.[199]

Sweden: Beginning 19 March 2020, there is an entry ban which applies to all foreign citizens attempting to enter Sweden from all countries except those in the EEA, the UK and Switzerland.[200]

Switzerland: Borders closed to foreigners without residential visas or commercial deliveries, unless they are immediately transiting the country, starting 17 March 2020.

[201]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic#Europe

15-07-2020 09:23AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

The virus thrives on indoor spread. Air conditioning in the summer helps it, central heating in winter.
So winter is a worry yes.

That plus a flu surge at the same time would kill many people.

How come Florida does not have a summer Flu spike?

http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/influenza/index.html

Renjit · 15-07-2020 09:24AM

Deleted User wrote: »

How come Florida does not have a summer Flu spike?

http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/influenza/index.html

"New viruses have a temporary but important advantage – few or no individuals in the population are immune to them. Old viruses, which have been in the population for longer, operate on a thinner margin — most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with transmitting among the few who aren’t. In simple terms, viruses that have been around for a long time can make a living — spread through the population — only when the conditions are the most favorable, in this case in winter."
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-c...armer-weather/

ZX7R · 15-07-2020 09:34AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

I want solutions not problems bucko.
Think outside the box.

Get the north to go along with the strategy.
Even better get UK to go along with it.
We can do it.
Look at the lions rugby team?

Then you would need to have a third referendum to leave the European Union as it would be the only way for us to fully close our borders to a free moment of EU citizens.

Every fvcking mainland EU country closed its borders. Bullsh!t.

Confounding of facts. There.

Every EU country declared an health emergency under EU rules.
We did not bucko.
The EU commission has already downloaded the level of severity of the pandemic warning in the EU.
So even if we wanted to we could not declare an emergency currently.
Comparing Ruby to political processes is not in the same league

Christy42 · 15-07-2020 09:34AM

ZX7R wrote: »

EU countries closed there borders in early March by declaring a national health emergency.
We did not we never declared an health emergency under EU rules.

It would seem easier to do that then to have a referendum to leave the EU simply to close our borders for a while...

The end point is that it is still possible to do it without leaving the EU or ending the CTA permanently.

15-07-2020 09:37AM

Renjit wrote: »

"New viruses have a temporary but important advantage – few or no individuals in the population are immune to them. Old viruses, which have been in the population for longer, operate on a thinner margin — most individuals are immune, and they have to make do with transmitting among the few who aren’t. In simple terms, viruses that have been around for a long time can make a living — spread through the population — only when the conditions are the most favorable, in this case in winter."
https://ccdd.hsph.harvard.edu/will-c...armer-weather/

So in summary on the posts on this matter:

- Its like Flu so we will have a winter surge
- What about the summer surge in southern US states?
- Air conditioning
- Why no summer Flu spike?
- Its not like flu

Truth is we dont know yet.

Conclusion of the linked Harvard study:

For the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, we have reason to expect that like other betacoronaviruses, it may transmit somewhat more efficiently in winter than summer, though we don’t know the mechanism(s) responsible.

D.Q · 15-07-2020 09:43AM

polesheep wrote: »

As with all people who advocate for extreme restrictions, you have to wonder if they have skin in the game in terms of vulnerable relatives and how objective they really are.

I wouldn't even say its anything so selfless with them. I'd say it's more they could probably get plenty more airplay and publishing by being the group to completely squash covid 19. Keynote at Epidemiology Conferences for the rest of their days.

In essence, Rockstars :pac:

Jackman25 · 15-07-2020 09:43AM

Ae Fond Kiss wrote: »

There are posters who think they are being extremely positive but border on silly at times. I think they are afraid, whistling in the dark.

Yesterday evening was a prime example when cases were announced. We had 32. Nothing that remarkable about the figure given we're opening up and some rises evident in other countries.

There was an amount of crap posted about it by the 'we know everything and don't worry be happy group'. Stuff like that figure is too high for the official 24 hour cases release I have. What way are they releasing stats?

Some posters think they have an inside line and are on NEPHET! The figure itself was nothing terribly worrying, just something to be kept an eye on with travel the main problem.

What in blazes are you on about? Figures are nothing to worry about, but people posting saying that are being silly?
The posters commenting on the figures have fully linked and been consistent with their commentary on the data and discrepancies between different sets of figures.
You aren't even getting the acronym for NPHET correct.

caveat emptor · 15-07-2020 09:44AM

ZX7R wrote: »

Every EU country declared an health emergency under EU rules.
We did not bucko.
The EU commission has already downloaded the level of severity of the pandemic warning in the EU.
So even if we wanted to we could not declare an emergency currently.
Comparing Ruby to political processes is not in the same league

That was an example where people might be able to understand. 4 nations wearing the same jersey that ordinarily 6 seven shades of ****e out of each other. If they can play together once every 4 years. We can align our policy once every 100 years. It's the symbolism man, come on. Feel the positivity.....

Oh and I was just calling bulls!t saying we can't close the border. We have, everyone else did. They will do it again and my hope is that we will do it to get back to normal.

I'm not doing this for me. I have asthma although not bad, rarely need an inhaler. I'm sure I'll be grand.

I want kids to be able to go back to school. That's my priority right now. Can't see that happening though while we prioritise short term dollars from tourists over long term well being of the country.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1283291803312160768?s=20

cnocbui · 15-07-2020 09:45AM

redmgar wrote: »

Does anyone know why there is a flu season? Is it simply because people are indoors more, or is there another reason?

It might have something to do with low levels of vitamin D due to a lack of sunlight.

snotboogie · 15-07-2020 09:48AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Thats not the point at all, you've completely taken the wrong context here, firstly is anyone an expert on covid ?

Secondly these 'experts' that were mentioned are the ones who want indefinite lockdown, how does that work ? Quick answer it doesn't. Do you think we should listen to them when we have 2 different jurisdictions on the island whos policies are now vastly different and yet they keep publishing letters on an all island approach completely forgetting or ignoring that NI are part of the UK and following their advice.

So please do tell me how we can implement the experts suggestions of a covid free island and implement elimination while we have an open border with NI and varying policies.

I presume you agree with Tomas Ryan so, back to phase 2 and lockdown the entire country ?

You are raging against something you don't understand. The clear point of the Covid Free Ireland is so we don't have indefinite lockdowns. They want a short harsh lockdown so that life can go back to normal as soon as possible.

wadacrack · 15-07-2020 09:50AM

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JfDpuouYUFc&t=2233s

stephenjmcd · 15-07-2020 09:52AM

snotboogie wrote: »

You are raging against something you don't understand. The clear point of the Covid Free Ireland is so we don't have indefinite lockdowns. They want a short harsh lockdown so that life can go back to normal as soon as possible.

Sorry but with the greatest respect I think it is you that does not understand.

How are you supposed to achieve a coivd free Ireland with an open border with the UK and a different jurisdiction of the island operating a different policy ??

Regardless of how long the lockdown would be we still come back to open border and 2 different policies on the island so how exactly do you achieve a covid free island with NI not implementing quarantine for a large number of countries and people free to drive into the Republic with no measures in place as its not feasible to shut down the NI border.

Would love to hear how its possible.

timmy_mallet · 15-07-2020 09:57AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Sorry but with the greatest respect I think it is you that does not understand.

How are you supposed to achieve a coivd free Ireland with an open border with the UK and a different jurisdiction of the island operating a different policy ??

Regardless of how long the lockdown would be we still come back to open border and 2 different policies on the island so how exactly do you achieve a covid free island with NI not implementing quarantine for a large number of countries.

Would love to hear how thats possible.

We are a small island. It's achievable. Then what? Isolate for the next 10 years?

is_that_so · 15-07-2020 09:57AM

SeaBreezes wrote: »

Except for New Zealand...

Extremely isolated, low population density country ....

stephenjmcd · 15-07-2020 10:00AM

timmy_mallet wrote: »

We are a small island. It's achievable. Then what? Isolate for the next 10 years?

Thats the thing, you'd need NI to deviate from the UK and join up with our policies, that won't happen.

Even if it was possible like you say then what, shut ourselves off ? again not possible

is_that_so · 15-07-2020 10:00AM

caveat emptor wrote: »

That was an example where people might be able to understand. 4 nations wearing the same jersey that ordinarily 6 seven shades of ****e out of each other. If they can play together once every 4 years. We can align our policy once every 100 years. It's the symbolism man, come on. Feel the positivity.....

Oh and I was just calling bulls!t saying we can't close the border. We have, everyone else did. They will do it again and my hope is that we will do it to get back to normal.

I'm not doing this for me. I have asthma although not bad, rarely need an inhaler. I'm sure I'll be grand.

I want kids to be able to go back to school. That's my priority right now. Can't see that happening though while we prioritise short term dollars from tourists over long term well being of the country.

https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1283291803312160768?s=20

Opened. Too. Quickly!

Ae Fond Kiss · 15-07-2020 10:00AM

Jackman25 wrote: »

What in blazes are you on about? Figures are nothing to worry about, but people posting saying that are being silly?
The posters commenting on the figures have fully linked and been consistent with their commentary on the data and discrepancies between different sets of figures.
You aren't even getting the acronym for NPHET correct.

'What in blazes'?? Are you old JW the Sheriff in the Bond movies?

schmoo2k · 15-07-2020 10:02AM

Hector Savage wrote: »

Lleida for now, concern is growing for Barcelona too where cases are exploding again ...

Still not Spain - it was just a little fact check on the previous erroneous post...

Gruffalux · 15-07-2020 10:02AM

Renjit wrote: »

For first run, immunity is significant factor compared to seasons. Depletion of susceptible hosts may add more weight to seasonal factor.

In this first run scenario only about 3 or 4% of people caught the virus here. It is only about 5 to 7% in harder hit countries albeit with some exceptional hotspot outliers. So really we are wide open as hosts and almost as vulnerable as we were at the start. I view now as being similar to January, mooching along at the bottom of a graph, a virus looking again for a foothold among us, and that a couple of months from now, with life pretty much back to normal as it is, and especially with social gathering indoors, we will see a significant increase as we did back in March.
This may seem depressing to some but I think it is realistic and while sad there is no use in being down. It is better to prepare mentally for October or November to be a tricky enough time and then be relieved and pleased when or if it is not. That's just my unprofessional laywoman's opinion. I felt the same the day in January I first read about a strange virus in Wuhan.

Ae Fond Kiss · 15-07-2020 10:04AM

stephenjmcd wrote: »

I agree with you the figure was nothing terribly worrying but as we've seen its reported as being awful.

But on your earlier point sorry but thats BS your spouting about 'don't worry be happy'.

If as some of us do you track data, the total postive cases logged in the last 24hrs is 15, not 32 as was reported yesterday evening. Like was said yesterday the numbers reported as postive swabs v numbers reported daily has been fairly well off since the wekeend. So yes there are questions around the reporting of data and how it filters through from the HPSC so there's quite clearly a delay and that will be evident when the county data is released.

So throw around labels to groups all you want but the stats are there for you to see if you wish. The total postive will be updated later today to give the postive swabs in the last 24hrs, compare it then with the numbers announced and you'll see what people have been discussing surrounding a possible lag in reporting.

https://covid19ireland-geohive.hub.arcgis.com/

Maybe the full data isn't disclosed in daily swabs? It's more the attitude 'that's not right because we say so'. Very prevalent on here. Like you saying you're sick of experts but posting your take on things all day! At least they have the quals.

schmoo2k · 15-07-2020 10:06AM

Deleted User wrote: »

How come Florida does not have a summer Flu spike?

http://www.floridahealth.gov/diseases-and-conditions/influenza/index.html

Also Florida age profile in the Summer (off season) is very different to their winter age profile - Florida is weird in many ways.

Covid19 Part XIX-25,802 in ROI (1,753 deaths) 5,859 in NI (556 deaths) (21/07)Read OP

Comments