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The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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Comments

  • #8852
    Professor Moriarty
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,392 ✭✭✭✭Professor Moriarty


    If 30,000 this week were true, that would indicate a probable 4200 deaths per week in three weeks time.


  • #8853
    petes
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,382 ✭✭✭petes


    Professor Moriarty wrote: »
    If 30,000 this week were true, that would indicate a probable 4200 deaths per week in three weeks time.

    And yet you've a poster above saying they've a good strategy for coming out of lockdown. Beggars belief.


  • #8854
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    petes wrote: »
    And yet you've a poster above saying they've a good strategy for coming out of lockdown. Beggars belief.

    I have seen nothing to support this 30k number. Where is it from?


  • #8855
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    The latest ONS survey figures had likely number of new cases daily at over 5,000. The cambridge/phe report last week had it at 17,000 but government didn't like that so basically ignored it.


  • #8856
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    I have seen nothing to support this 30k number. Where is it from?

    Links here:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52933804


    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-r-number-increasing-across-england-and-highest-in-north-west


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  • #8857
    Beechwoodspark
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,101 ✭✭✭✭Beechwoodspark


    Ireland still has an open border with this crackpot regime , that’s the frightening thing


  • #8858
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,121 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    Links here:

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52933804


    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-r-number-increasing-across-england-and-highest-in-north-west

    The reports say the numbers are coming down from 8000. So why are some suggesting here that deaths are going to go back up?


  • #8859
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    [Deleted User] wrote: »
    The reports say the numbers are coming down from 8000. So why are some suggesting here that deaths are going to go back up?

    My understanding is those ons surveys are based on antibody testing so it's likely catching a lot of people who may have been or are asymptomatic so it won't contribute appreciably to the death rate. I guess the trouble is if vulnerable people stop shielding and r rate goes up, that could easily lead to further widespread outbreaks. Or that's the risk anyway.


  • #8860
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Joe_ Public wrote: »
    The latest ONS survey figures had likely number of new cases daily at over 5,000. The cambridge/phe report last week had it at 17,000 but government didn't like that so basically ignored it.


    17,000 a day? Do you have a link to this?
    petes wrote: »
    And yet you've a poster above saying they've a good strategy for coming out of lockdown. Beggars belief.

    Yes, I think it is the right thing to come out of these measures in a careful, monitored and gentle way at this stage.


  • #8861
    Joe_ Public
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,023 ✭✭✭✭Joe_ Public


    theological wrote: »
    17,000 a day? Do you have a link to this?

    Already posted above but here it is again.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52933804

    https://www.cam.ac.uk/research/news/covid-19-r-number-increasing-across-england-and-highest-in-north-west


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  • #8862
    declanflynn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭declanflynn


    Looks like the delay going into lockdown by boris cost at least 30000 lives in the uk, but he has no regrets, hes just a fool


  • #8863
    Peregrinus
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 27,791 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    OK. The difference in the figure is, I think, accounted for like this:

    - The figure of 1,200 - 1,500 new diagnoses a day is a count of actual new diagnoses detected by testing each day.

    - But the much higher (and wildly varying) figures - 5,600 a day, 17,000 a day - is an estimate of the total number of infections in the community, including those not detected by testing (because e.g. the infected people are asymptomatic, or their symptoms are mild, and so they don't seek tests). These figures are estimated in different ways (hence the variety) but they all involve, one way or another, some form of looking at actual test results in a sample population and then extrapolating from that to the community at large.


  • #8864
    Sheep_shear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 138 ✭✭Sheep_shear


    Deleted User wrote: »
    Was talking to someone in the trade in London. Apparently because off-licences were considered essential businesses from day 1 of lockdown, the pub industry subsequently successfully lobbied to be given a temporary "off"-licence.

    Well I could see the logic for offies, last thing people wanted back then was A&E being crowded with people having alcohol withdrawl. Not a single pub within reasonable driving distance of me has opened in any fashion. I reckon most of them are bust in all but name.


  • #8865
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    Here is an interesting video about the use of Statutory Instruments for making legislation and looking at it with the UK Quarantine Law,



    Basically the use of SI's mean laws are created without parliamentary scrutiny. Worryingly this inept government is using this instrument more and more. Yes, this government who has been in charge of the mess of handling coronavirus are making laws and bypassing parliamentary scrutiny.


  • #8866
    Enzokk
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,011 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    And just another on the quarantine, it always seemed fanciful to me that the UK was trying to portray themselves as somehow better and trying to keep the virus out of their superior country, when in fact they are the outlier that the rest of Europe wants to keep out.

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1270962895262711809?s=20


  • #8867
    Sheep_shear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 138 ✭✭Sheep_shear


    Enzokk wrote: »
    And just another on the quarantine, it always seemed fanciful to me that the UK was trying to portray themselves as somehow better and trying to keep the virus out of their superior country, when in fact they are the outlier that the rest of Europe wants to keep out.

    I thought it was only Brexit types that said Germany equals Europe? :pac:


  • #8868
    declanflynn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,160 ✭✭✭declanflynn


    Enzokk wrote: »
    And just another on the quarantine, it always seemed fanciful to me that the UK was trying to portray themselves as somehow better and trying to keep the virus out of their superior country, when in fact they are the outlier that the rest of Europe wants to keep out.

    https://twitter.com/BenPBradshaw/status/1270962895262711809?s=20
    That's brilliant, a hard brexit mite suit the EU yet


  • #8869
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    The KCL Zoe COVID Symptom Tracker now estimates that there are 4,900 cases a day. That's a drop of 47% since last week. Good news. The largest number of new cases seem to be in the North East and Yorkshire.


  • #8870
    VillageIdiot71
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 578 ✭✭✭VillageIdiot71


    Enzokk wrote: »
    Here is an interesting video about the use of Statutory Instruments for making legislation and looking at it with the UK Quarantine Law,

    Basically the use of SI's mean laws are created without parliamentary scrutiny. Worryingly this inept government is using this instrument more and more. Yes, this government who has been in charge of the mess of handling coronavirus are making laws and bypassing parliamentary scrutiny.
    Can you clarify which inept Government you mean? Our Government is also using Statutory Instruments to define the restrictions in force.

    For instance, this is the one about the 14 day limit:

    http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2020/si/181/made/en/pdf


  • #8871
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    VillageIdiot71 wrote: »
    Can you clarify which inept Government you mean? Our Government is also using Statutory Instruments to define the restrictions in force.

    For instance, this is the one about the 14 day limit:

    http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/2020/si/181/made/en/pdf

    It's not that SIs are being used, it's that the government using them has no scruples.

    The UK has an active upper house for oversight, we haven't as yet while we wait on the appointment of a new government. Our usage is predicated on this and being very careful to time limit anything brought in.

    I can't speak for the ukgov in that regard.


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  • #8872
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    It's not that SIs are being used, it's that the government using them has no scruples.

    The UK has an active upper house for oversight, we haven't as yet while we wait on the appointment of a new government. Our usage is predicated on this and being very careful to time limit anything brought in.

    I can't speak for the ukgov in that regard.

    The Seanad still exists for scrutinising legislation. I'm sure Enzokk will be balanced and criticise both equally.

    I think everyone can agree that travel bans and quarantines were brought in too late. Given that most of the infections in the UK are thought to originate from Spain and France a set of restrictions from February would have curbed the spread. I guess their argument is that they can stop a new set of cases being re-imported, but there's still a lot of community transmission in the country already.

    I guess it might be beneficial to other countries by dissuading Britons from travelling there also.

    I'm quite happy to restrict my travelling to within England for now anyway.


  • #8873
    BonnieSituation
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,088 ✭✭✭✭BonnieSituation


    theological wrote: »
    The Seanad still exists for scrutinising legislation. I'm sure Enzokk will be balanced and criticise both equally.

    In the UK response thread? Why do you still get so defensive?
    I think everyone can agree that travel bans and quarantines were brought in too late. Given that most of the infections in the UK are thought to originate from Spain and France a set of restrictions from February would have curbed the spread. I guess their argument is that they can stop a new set of cases being re-imported, but there's still a lot of community transmission in the country already.

    I suppose you'd agree with Neil Ferguson's assessment then?
    I guess it might be beneficial to other countries by dissuading Britons from travelling there also.

    I can't imagine there's too many places eager to have the Benidorm-set back just yet.

    I just wish we could do the same from Britain.
    I'm quite happy to restrict my travelling to within England for now anyway.

    No sneaky trips to Wales now.


  • #8874
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    In the UK response thread? Why do you still get so defensive?

    I'm not particularly. My point is that the Seanad exists in the same way the House of Lords does so your response to the previous poster fails logically.
    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    I suppose you'd agree with Neil Ferguson's assessment then?

    Hindsight is a beautiful thing, but yes. Travel bans should have been in place from the end of January probably. That would have actually stopped a lot of the importation of cases we saw.
    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    I can't imagine there's too many places eager to have the Benidorm-set back just yet.

    I just wish we could do the same from Britain.

    I don't think anybody should want to bring Benidorm back personally, but there you go.
    BonnieSituation wrote: »
    No sneaky trips to Wales now.

    It is a tempting proposition, but I'll stick the the auld guidance. It'd be lovely to go on a trip down to the Gower Peninsula or Pembrokeshire when this is all over. Wales is a lovely place. The north coast isn't bad either.


  • #8875
    ChikiChiki
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,949 ✭✭✭ChikiChiki


    declanflynn wrote: »
    Looks like the delay going into lockdown by boris cost at least 30000 lives in the uk, but he has no regrets, hes just a fool

    Similar attitude to Bolsonaro who calls people's deaths their "Destiny".

    You would think his own experience would have shaped some regret in how they handled it. Evidently not.


  • #8876
    A Dub in Glasgo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,333 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    https://twitter.com/RP131/status/1271070659997728768


  • #8877
    lainey_d_123
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,385 ✭✭✭lainey_d_123


    theological wrote: »
    The KCL Zoe COVID Symptom Tracker now estimates that there are 4,900 cases a day. That's a drop of 47% since last week. Good news. The largest number of new cases seem to be in the North East and Yorkshire.

    It's still a shockingly high number considering we've been in lockdown for months. We should be in double digits now, not nearly 5000 new cases a day! It isn't 'good news', it's a terrible, catastrophic failure.

    Look at all the other countries who are now coming out of lockdown and getting back to normality while we're still barely able to do anything, with the risk still pretty big. They could have locked down a week earlier and saved half the people who died, and contained it a lot better. We should also be getting back to normality now, ready to enjoy summer and yet here we are.

    How can you put a positive spin on this? The government's actions are criminal.


  • #8878
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 43,549 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    theological wrote: »
    The KCL Zoe COVID Symptom Tracker now estimates that there are 4,900 cases a day. That's a drop of 47% since last week. Good news. The largest number of new cases seem to be in the North East and Yorkshire.
    Earlier on in this thread you said the following (my emphasis)...
    theological wrote: »
    Nonsense. I agree with the government because their advice seems sensible and proportionate. Forgive me for thinking for myself and not automatically accepting the hive mind on this thread.

    Perhaps I ought to repent of not agreeing with you? Let's not be silly.
    theological wrote: »
    The bolded section isn't true and is disinformative.

    I posted an opinion from an Italian doctor on the RTE website yesterday which basically attributed the spread to people not isolating.

    The UK is pretty clear that people should isolate when they have symptoms of the illness for at least 7 days. People seem to be heeding that.

    It is also incorrect that the UK has done nothing. I've provided numerous examples in the last few pages as to what the UK has done to prepare for this since late January including the isolation of people returning from China.

    The spread in the UK has been slower than other large countries in Europe, and that isn't just because of the UK being an island because the UK received about as many inbound flights from mainland China if not more than other parts of Europe.

    I've explained why the logic of doing the right things in stages makes sense instead of rushing to disproportionate action from day 1. You might disagree, but I've been clear as to why I think the UK approach is the right one. Not all action is effective action. Panicked action is also not helpful.
    theological wrote: »
    Agreed. There's a huge effort at the minute to reduce the spread. When mass testing comes onboard the invisible cases will start becoming visible and then one can act according to the data.

    There's still no evidence that the UK is dealing with this in a worse way to other European countries.

    A general takeaway for the whole of Europe is that people arriving from Italy should have been quarantined in the same way as those arriving on rescue flights were. But hindsight is a wonderful thing and we have to deal with it based on what is the case today.
    theological wrote: »
    Its capacity is 4000 not 2000. It's definitely going to be helpful in this effort along with the NEC in Birmingham and the new venue in Manchester and freeing up 33,000 beds.

    So it isn't "big numbers" this is a huge effort that will save lives. I'm still waiting for good evidence that the UK is going to fare worse than other EU countries.
    theological wrote: »
    I'm deeply sorry that I offended you with my wrongthink but provided that everyone keeps to the emergency legislation on this we'll get through it.

    If you've got good evidence that the UK is going to fare substantially worse than other countries in Europe do let me know.
    theological wrote: »
    Again, it looks like there's a gap in the reasoning here. Please provide your workings.

    The numbers will rise for another week before we see the effects of the social distancing measures. Provided the vast majority of us are keeping to them there's no reason to think it will reach the same extent as Italy. Please provide the data that suggests this if you have it and I will happily change my mind.

    A combination of following the advice on a top down level, and the mass testing and the antibody testing coming into place will allow us to contain the virus.
    (and there are loads more quotes from you that endorse the government line)

    Do you still believe that the herd immunity strategy that was initially followed by the UK was the correct strategy to take?
    Do you still believe that the UK chose the correct course of action (i.e. "the right one")?
    Do you still believe that the UK were at any point in a position to contain the virus?
    Do you still believe that the UK is "not going to fare substantially worse than other countries in Europe"?
    Do you still agree with the UK "government because their advice seems sensible and proportionate"?

    If any of the above questions are "no" then what made you change your mind?


  • #8879
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    Do you still believe that the herd immunity strategy that was initially followed by the UK was the correct strategy to take?
    Do you still believe that the UK chose the correct course of action (i.e. "the right one")?
    Do you still believe that the UK were at any point in a position to contain the virus?
    Do you still believe that the UK is "not going to fare substantially worse than other countries in Europe"?
    Do you still agree with the UK "government because their advice seems sensible and proportionate"?

    If any of the above questions are "no" then what made you change your mind?

    I never endorsed "herd immunity" on this thread.

    I'm willing to say that some of the advice may have been wrong and that mistakes have been made. I've been quite happy to criticise the government when I think it is the right thing to do on this thread.

    I don't get the point of attempting to personalise this.


  • #8880
    Seth Brundle
    Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 43,549 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    theological wrote: »
    I never endorsed "herd immunity" on this thread.
    You endorsed their strategy which initially was based on herd immunity!
    theological wrote: »
    I'm willing to say that some of the advice may have been wrong and that mistakes have been made. I've been quite happy to criticise the government when I think it is the right thing to do on this thread.
    Are you agreeing that the UK government has allowed tens of thousands of its people to die unnecessarily?
    Care to comment on what advice they gave was correct?
    theological wrote: »
    I don't get the point of attempting to personalise this.
    It's not personal. I'm just challenging many of the statements that you have made in this thread defending what many of us saw (at the time) to be the indefensible.


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  • #8881
    theological
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,831 ✭✭✭theological


    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    You endorsed their strategy which initially was based on herd immunity!

    I never endorsed "herd immunity" and neither did the government as far as I can tell Patrick Vallance mentioned it in a briefing on one occasion.
    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    Are you agreeing that the UK government has allowed tens of thousands of its people to die unnecessarily?
    Care to comment on what advice they gave was correct?
    I'm saying that mistakes were made, both in terms of the advice received and in what was done.
    Seth Brundle wrote: »
    It's not personal. I'm just challenging many of the statements that you have made in this thread defending what many of us saw (at the time) to be the indefensible.

    It is personal. I'm willing to accept that I can be wrong on occasion. I trusted the advice that we were given at the time from the medical officers.

    Now, I simply said I was encouraged by the coronavirus tracker showing fewer cases. Anything to add on that?
    lainey_d_123 wrote: »
    It's still a shockingly high number considering we've been in lockdown for months. We should be in double digits now, not nearly 5000 new cases a day! It isn't 'good news', it's a terrible, catastrophic failure.

    Look at all the other countries who are now coming out of lockdown and getting back to normality while we're still barely able to do anything, with the risk still pretty big. They could have locked down a week earlier and saved half the people who died, and contained it a lot better. We should also be getting back to normality now, ready to enjoy summer and yet here we are.

    How can you put a positive spin on this? The government's actions are criminal.

    I'm pointing out that the situation is improving, and as someone living in the UK I'm naturally quite happy about that.

    Edit: As far as I can tell the lockdown will have been eased for the 3rd time in the coming week. That isn't no progress.


This discussion has been closed.
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