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Why we should continue taking actions that are proven to work.

  • 30-03-2020 09:32AM
    #1
    DeVore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,387 ✭✭✭✭


    "We did a thing, and now the numbers are small We ShOuLd ToTaLly StOp DoInG ThAt ThInG"

    I swear, if I see this sort of idiocy on the site I'll freakin' lose it.

    Already I hear people saying the government "over estimated the numbers". Thats not true, they estimated 15,000 if nothing was done.

    Here's the thing, my main job now (after selling my shares in Boards) is modelling. (Mathematical modelling, not the catwalk, I look like the back end of a bus!).

    I work with Dutch folks who are expert in this stuff. I modelled the viral spread myself because I dont trust anyone and immediately put my family into lock down 2 weeks ago and sent all my staff home. (yes, me, my family all have the dreaded "underlying conditions" but even my company has been in quarantine for 2 weeks because we see this coming). Thats not fear, thats pragmatism.

    Firstly if you want to see someone absolutely brilliantly explain what makes a difference to the models check out 3Blue1Brown and his beautiful visual explanations. Trust me, even if you hate maths, this is visually explained so well...

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs


    So, our numbers look good, we've done everything right, and now... what? People want to STOP doing that?

    What do you think... do you think the virus might have gotten bored?

    Perhaps its gotten tired? Grown a taste for Spanish/Italians and will leave us alone?!

    We closed the schools on the 12th. We know this thing has up to a 14 day symptom lag (median is 6) a testing lag of a couple of days and a 5 day hospitalisation lag before death. Reporting of new cases is lagging about 2 days too. So the impact on new cases should happen around around 9-11 days after an action is taken (roughly).

    Closing the schools should have hit about 9 days after the 12th. And if you look at Ten of Swords excellent tracking post here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2058062246 ... we see that the first day we had only teens in the "new cases growth column" is indeed the 21st.

    (Caveat: there are other factors influencing this number, from "regression to the mean" to the exponential viral growth but this is a clear and continuous impact).

    We closed the pubs on 15th? We worked from home less than a week ago. We went into full lockdown only a few days ago. These have yet to really have an impact on the numbers.

    What we are doing is working.

    I dont think we should stop doing the thing that is working. Thats all I'm saying.


    If you want to ask me questions about how people model this stuff, I'm happy to answer. I don't specialise in virology but I these models work.


«1345

Comments

  • #2
    bloodless_coup
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,480 ✭✭✭bloodless_coup


    Are you American?


  • #3
    DeVore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,387 ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    No. I'm Irish. I also started this site 20 years ago. :D


  • #4
    theteal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,590 ✭✭✭theteal


    Forgive my being out of the Irish loop (I've enough on my plate aghast at the craic over here in the UK) but are people already calling for an end to restrictions????


  • #5
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers, Paid Member Posts: 44,326 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    theteal wrote: »
    Forgive my being out of the Irish loop (I've enough on my plate aghast at the craic over here in the UK) but are people already calling for an end to restrictions????

    "People" is a lose term.

    Crackpot conspiracy nuts and Internet trolls would be a more apt description.

    We had a poster here, only a couple of days ago, call for everyone to be let back to work because the UK changed its classification of the virus from an original incorrect classification.

    The cranks are out there


  • #6
    sydthebeat
    Subscribers, Paid Member Posts: 44,326 ✭✭✭✭sydthebeat


    KiKi III wrote: »
    Not sure I believe you, account that literally registered today.

    Why didn’t you post this in the ongoing thread, not sure it needed its own.

    Face-palm.


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  • #7
    beauf
    Closed Accounts Posts: 22,457 ✭✭✭✭beauf


    I'll have to look at this properly later but interesting stuff. I've been watching some of Bill Gates talks and that's also interesting. I'm not really interested in the biology more the data processing side of it.


  • #8
    MadYaker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭MadYaker


    He own boards do he can do what he likes and it would have been buried in bullish!t in the main thread.


  • #9
    redman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,590 ✭✭✭redman


    DeVore wrote: »
    No. I'm Irish. I also started this site 20 years ago. :D

    Theres gonna be a few facepalms to that :D

    That aside, totally agree with your sentiment, so thanks for highlighting


  • #10
    Pretzill
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,786 ✭✭✭Pretzill


    That's an excellent visual representation, thanks Devore


  • #11
    HeidiHeidi
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 32,491 ✭✭✭✭HeidiHeidi


    Could you arrange to have this printed on a banner on the front page of every newspaper for the foreseeable?

    We're barely days into "lockdown" (I suspect the real thing is yet to come), and already some are getting antsy.


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  • #12
    Ballso
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 465 ✭✭Ballso


    theteal wrote: »
    Forgive my being out of the Irish loop (I've enough on my plate aghast at the craic over here in the UK) but are people already calling for an end to restrictions????

    No. Pointless thread.


  • #13
    DeVore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,387 ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    I technically dont own boards any more. I do kinda know what I'm talking about and you're going to hear a lot more from me over the next few weeks. The Oldies around here know me and (most) trust me because they have seen me guide this ship before.

    I posted this as a thread to head off the (already appearing) people saying the government over reacted. Or that we should relax restrictions now.

    Mostly I want to arm people with GOOD information and ammo to argue back about this.

    On one hand plenty of my family are in the firing line of this thing (including me, my parents, my partner and my sister who works in a hospital)...
    On the other hand an extended lock down will trash my new company that I have been working on for nearly 3 years, and also trash my other sister's business (OffBeat Donuts if you know them). So, I've definitely skin in the game in both ways.

    What I'm going to do is bring well sourced info, with sources quoted where possible, to cut through some of the ... less science-based... posts here.


  • #14
    Ulysses Gaze
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,570 ✭✭✭Ulysses Gaze


    theteal wrote: »
    Forgive my being out of the Irish loop (I've enough on my plate aghast at the craic over here in the UK) but are people already calling for an end to restrictions????

    A few people on Boards that think we need to "save the economy at all costs".


  • #15
    Nermal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,924 ✭✭✭Nermal


    DeVore wrote: »
    I dont think we should stop doing the thing that is working. Thats all I'm saying.

    What's your definition of 'working'?

    If all you care about is saving lives, then why not lock down further?


  • #16
    theteal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,590 ✭✭✭theteal


    Ulysses Gaze wrote: »
    A few people on Boards that think we need to "save the economy at all costs".

    Urgh, feels like over here so. . . .although that's now slowly changing


  • #17
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 5,422 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ulysses Gaze wrote: »
    A few people on Boards that think we need to "save the economy at all costs".

    The economy is sacred, so what of the thousands of elderly & vulnerable at high risk. They were never going to last anyway, necessary collateral damage.

    To recite the unholy gospel from Platoon, "when the machine breaks down, we break down". Mantra of the muppet.


  • #18
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Pretzill wrote: »
    That's an excellent visual representation, thanks Devore
    +1. I've got dyscalculia so anything more than 1+1=2 requires me taking my socks off and bring extra digits into the mix and even I understood it.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #19
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Nermal wrote: »
    What's your definition of 'working'?

    If all you care about is saving lives, then why not lock down further?
    It's a risk/benefit exercise. If we could completely lock down every human host in Ireland for three weeks the virus would die out. Until someone with it came back into the country. Rinse and repeat.

    Locking down further might reduce some spread, but would likely bring much more hardship. The current lockdown will work in reducing most spread, with much less hardship and buys us time to treat people who need more than panadol and bed rest and buys us time until viable treatments and a vaccine comes along.

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #20
    DeVore
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 32,387 ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    HeidiHeidi wrote: »
    Could you arrange to have this printed on a banner on the front page of every newspaper for the foreseeable?

    We're barely days into "lockdown" (I suspect the real thing is yet to come), and already some are getting antsy.

    I'm hoping to do better than that. I hope to have a direct channel, site-wide pretty soon. And we're 10 times bigger than any news paper... :)
    Ballso wrote: »
    No. Pointless thread.

    I'm afraid already I've seen people posting about how the "government got it wrong" because 15,000 arent sick with it. Tbh, this seems like a lot of political hacks who have the knives out for Leo because they cant see him do a good job (for once, where has this Varadkar been for years!). Also Morning Ireland this morning were discussing it.

    Its coming. For once I want to be ahead of The Stupid.
    Deleted User wrote: »
    First-rate deconstruction of the casual nonsense that passes for '"shure we'll be supping on pints within a fortnight at this rate". Bravo OP.

    That guy 3Blue1Brown, his entire Youtube is the best thing on that tide-pod-eating wasteland of a site. Seriously, his math and comms skills are amazing.


  • #21
    ax530
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 505 ✭✭✭ax530


    that is great thanks for sharing


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  • #22
    VanHalen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 102 ✭✭VanHalen


    To be honest "the government got it wrong" brigade are a bit like the people who complained that Y2K was a damp squib - yes it was a damp squib but that was because of all the work that went into preventing it!


  • #23
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 6,583 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Ballso wrote: »
    No. Pointless thread.

    Yeah take it your not reading the posts complaining about the economy and the other edge lords on here complaining about everything, not to mention the NP and gemtards going on about flights landing.


  • #24
    crossman47
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,627 ✭✭✭crossman47


    VanHalen wrote: »
    To be honest "the government got it wrong" brigade are a bit like the people who complained that Y2K was a damp squib - yes it was a damp squib but that was because of all the work that went into preventing it!

    It reminds me so much of that. Planes didn't fall out of the sky so the experts were wrong was a common view.


  • #25
    celticWario
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 111 ✭✭celticWario


    We only have the numbers of those tested, I personally know 4 people from work who have symptoms who aren't bothering to get tested because it's too much of a hassle "sure by the time they get around to testing me I'll be over it/it'll all be over" is the attitude.


  • #26
    Nermal
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,924 ✭✭✭Nermal


    Wibbs wrote: »
    Locking down further might reduce some spread, but would likely bring much more hardship.

    'Might'?

    'Likely'?

    This is the sort of modelling we're doing?


  • #27
    Vegeta
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Vegeta


    DeVore wrote: »
    Here's the thing, my main job now (after selling my shares in Boards) is modelling. (Mathematical modelling, not the catwalk, I look like the back end of a bus!).

    Cool, do you guys do mathematical modelling, statistical modelling or both?


  • #28
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,337 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Nermal wrote: »
    'Might'?

    'Likely'?

    This is the sort of modelling we're doing?
    Oh FFS. OK "would" and "definitely". Happy now?

    Many worry about Artificial Intelligence. I worry far more about Organic Idiocy.



  • #29
    storker
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,761 ✭✭✭storker


    theteal wrote: »
    Forgive my being out of the Irish loop (I've enough on my plate aghast at the craic over here in the UK) but are people already calling for an end to restrictions????

    Yes, because The Economy. :)


  • #30
    Signore Fancy Pants
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,703 ✭✭✭Signore Fancy Pants


    Nermal wrote: »
    'Might'?

    'Likely'?

    This is the sort of modelling we're doing?

    I would be interested to hear your assessment of the Pandemic, specifically the characteristics which have contributed to the global spread of the virus, the value of mitigation measures and your 2 month projection for the course of the Pandemic.

    I find your comments interesting so would like to know where they stem from.

    Should we be doing less and why, should we be doing more, and why?


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  • #31
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 12,694 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    That is why they have to be so careful about the measures they adopt its working and we cant relax just yet.


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