The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

McGiver · 28-03-2020 12:06PM

McGiver wrote:

Korea - 45 tests per 1000
Italy - about 5 right now
UK - 1.5

Update, Italy is at 6.5 per 1000 population.
Ireland at 3.7 which is decent.

UK has to be step up testing.

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2020 12:45PM

theological wrote: »

As an Irish person in the UK.

I genuinely don't think there's any good evidence to suggest that the UK response will yield worse results than other countries. The impact of the social distancing measures will take a few weeks to materialise.

There's a brand new hospital opening in the Excel in London at the weekend. They are converting the NEC in Birmingham and another venue in Manchester plus having made over 33,000 beds available in other hospitals.

At the moment I'm very thankful that they've not brought in the 2km from home restriction here. I've been walking about 6km every lunchtime for my own sanity during the working week and plan to get outside for a few hours this afternoon. I live on the green belt so there shouldn't be too many around and the weather is glorious.

Signs of hope from Wuhan that life can start emerging in the next 9 weeks or so.

I would bet my house that, when this washes through and the stats are calculated, Ireland will have a lower mortality rate than the UK. Also, it will be primarily seen as a direct result of Johnson's dithering and prevaricating.

meeeeh · 28-03-2020 12:53PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I would bet my house that, when this washes through and the stats are calculated, Ireland will have a lower mortality rate than the UK. Also, it will be primarily seen as a direct result of Johnson's dithering and prevaricating.

I really don't know about that. A lot depends on the state of health system. NHS far from being as good as Brits think but I suspect Irish health system is more under resourced.

We can do everything by the rules but it could still be high numbers because system can't cope. Some Balkan countries have extremely strict rules despite relatively low numbers but they know their health service can't cope with even low numbers. However German death numbers are still relatively low despite high infection rates because there is capacity in the system.

fryup · 28-03-2020 12:55PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I would bet my house that, when this washes through and the stats are calculated, Ireland will have a lower mortality rate than the UK. Also, it will be primarily seen as a direct result of Johnson's dithering and prevaricating.

the fact that he and his closest advisors have it is a direct result of Johnson's dithering and prevaricating

his quote from a fortnight ago..

"this virus won't stop me shaking hands with people"

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2020 01:11PM

meeeeh wrote: »

I really don't know about that. A lot depends on the state of health system. NHS far from being as good as Brits think but I suspect Irish health system is more under resourced.

We can do everything by the rules but it could still be high numbers because system can't cope. Some Balkan countries have extremely strict rules despite relatively low numbers but they know their health service can't cope with even low numbers. However German death numbers are still relatively low despite high infection rates because there is capacity in the system.

Our health system is roughly similar to Britain's in terms of adequacy. Any differences are relatively slight by comparison to the public health responses.

To date, Britain has twice the mortality rate per million of Ireland, a trend that has been consistent. Now factor in Britain's procrastination in addressing containment. For example and compared to the vast majority of European countries; schools staying open much longer than other countries, 5,000,000 daily trips on the tube until last week, social distancing restrictions delayed, businesses remaining open etc.

Sadly, we have a big problem coming down the tracks in the next few weeks. However, by comparison and unfortunately, there is a sh1tstorm coming for Britain.

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2020 01:12PM

fryup wrote: »

the fact that he and his closest advisors have it is a direct result of Johnson's dithering and prevaricating

his quote from a fortnight ago..

"this virus won't stop me shaking hands with people"

And having just said that, he turned to their CMO who said "Wash your hands" with a sheepish grin on his face.

meeeeh · 28-03-2020 01:21PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Our health system is roughly similar to Britain's in terms of adequacy. Any differences are relatively slight by comparison to the public health responses.

To date, Britain has twice the mortality rate per million of Ireland, a trend that has been consistent. Now factor in Britain's procrastination in addressing containment. For example and compared to the vast majority of European countries; schools staying open much longer than other countries, 5,000,000 daily trips on the tube until last week, social distancing restrictions delayed, businesses remaining open etc.

Sadly, we have a big problem coming down the tracks in the next few weeks. However, by comparison and unfortunately, there is a sh1tstorm coming for Britain.

I hope you are right and Ireland won't be too bad but I don't think you can make big predictions.

theological · 28-03-2020 01:24PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I would bet my house that, when this washes through and the stats are calculated, Ireland will have a lower mortality rate than the UK. Also, it will be primarily seen as a direct result of Johnson's dithering and prevaricating.

The reality is nobody will be able to determine this for sure because there's a myriad of factors at play including greater exposure to China and population density. What matters is that people follow the guidance and we get through it.

I genuinely think there won't be a large difference between the UK and other EU countries. It could fare better than many also.

The UK are preparing significantly for dealing with more patients and have created a lot of space. The antibody test coming online in the next few weeks will also help greatly.

What matters is getting through this and getting on with life as soon as possible.

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2020 01:33PM

meeeeh wrote: »

I hope you are right and Ireland won't be too bad but I don't think you can make big predictions.

Nobody knows for sure what will happen. But the application of logic to both responses would dictate that Ireland's containment response was much quicker and deeper. Therefore it is more effective. If it is more effective then this will lead to fewer deaths.

CelticRambler · 28-03-2020 01:37PM

theological wrote: »

There's a brand new hospital opening in the Excel in London at the weekend.

Yeah ... about that. It's not exactly "a brand new hospital" - it's two enormous wards (2000 patients each) in a shed. Calling it the "Nightingale Hospital" doesn't change the fact that they're planning to put 2000 infected, contagious people into the same air- and floorspace. Keeping that number of people in one area is (a) against all the principles of good respiratory disease management; and (b) it' is going to demand the highest-of-high standards of hygiene to stop accidental transmission from those who have a relatively mild infection to those most at risk - something that is far from guaranteed when you look at all the healthcare workers that are getting sick while on active duty.

Unfortunately, it's just another example of the government throwing big numbers at the problem with no appreciation of how respiratory viruses work.

theological · 28-03-2020 01:40PM

Its capacity is 4000 not 2000. It's definitely going to be helpful in this effort along with the NEC in Birmingham and the new venue in Manchester and freeing up 33,000 beds.

So it isn't "big numbers" this is a huge effort that will save lives. I'm still waiting for good evidence that the UK is going to fare worse than other EU countries.

lainey_d_123 · 28-03-2020 01:40PM

theological wrote: »

The reality is nobody will be able to determine this for sure because there's a myriad of factors at play including greater exposure to China and population density. What matters is that people follow the guidance and we get through it.

I genuinely think there won't be a large difference between the UK and other EU countries. It could fare better than many also.

The UK are preparing significantly for dealing with more patients and have created a lot of space. The antibody test coming online in the next few weeks will also help greatly.

What matters is getting through this and getting on with life as soon as possible.

I have to say, they have made huge progress in the past week or two with the coronavirus response, but it still feels all a bit 'too little, too late'.

I have to say a lot of people are STILL not taking it seriously. Afraid to even go out for a jog now because of all the people who knock into you, go past you leaving no space, etc. Just total cluelessness. One silly cow passed me with centimetres to spare on a narrow pavement when I was coming back from getting bread and milk - didn't consider maybe stepping out into the huge, empty road with no cars, if she was so desperate to get past? There are just way too many thick people here for these measures to be fully effective.

I really regret listening to people who told me not to stock up. My instinct was to get a ridiculously huge Ocado order in, and I didn't because I was told not to panic and it would all be fine. Now there are no online delivery slots for weeks and me with an underlying health issue forced to go out and get groceries at least once a week, exposing myself to risk every time. Fantastic.

meeeeh · 28-03-2020 01:42PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Nobody knows for sure what will happen. But the application of logic to both responses would dictate that Ireland's containment response was much quicker and deeper. Therefore it is more effective. If it is more effective then this will lead to fewer deaths.

You can only apply logic to very precise data and to exact information about what is going on and if you know the state of health system very well. We can speculate but nothing is logical if it's built on not enough data and knowledge. And most of us here don't have it.

Donald Trump · 28-03-2020 01:50PM

Have there been any reports of the unwanted foreigners (a la Brexit) who man the NHS in the UK deciding to go back home to where they are wanted, in order to help out their own people?

We have all seen the stories of the Irish doctors in New York and Australia trying to get home to help. I'm wondering whether the unwelcome (by many Brexiteers) Eastern Europeans over there?

McGiver · 28-03-2020 01:50PM

meeeeh wrote:

We can do everything by the rules but it could still be high numbers because system can't cope. Some Balkan countries have extremely strict rules despite relatively low numbers but they know their health service can't cope with even low numbers. However German death numbers are still relatively low despite high infection rates because there is capacity in the system.

So far the leaders in terms of lowest deaths as a % of cases are:
Germany with a huge lead
Switzerland
Austria
Luxembourg
Norway
Czech Republic
Finland
Slovenia

Poland and Ireland not doing bad at all.

Sweden, Denmark, Belgium quite disappointing.

Italy, Spain, UK, the Netherlands, France quite poor.

theological · 28-03-2020 01:51PM

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I have to say, they have made huge progress in the past week or two with the coronavirus response, but it still feels all a bit 'too little, too late'.

I have to say a lot of people are STILL not taking it seriously. Afraid to even go out for a jog now because of all the people who knock into you, go past you leaving no space, etc. Just total cluelessness. One silly cow passed me with centimetres to spare on a narrow pavement when I was coming back from getting bread and milk - didn't consider maybe stepping out into the huge, empty road with no cars, if she was so desperate to get past? There are just way too many thick people here for these measures to be fully effective.

I really regret listening to people who told me not to stock up. My instinct was to get a ridiculously huge Ocado order in, and I didn't because I was told not to panic and it would all be fine. Now there are no online delivery slots for weeks and me with an underlying health issue forced to go out and get groceries at least once a week, exposing myself to risk every time. Fantastic.

I've been out on a walk for the last 2 hours through fields without seeing a soul on Ordinance Survey routes. Unless horses count that is! There's nothing dangerous at all about going on a jog or a walk.

It is necessary for physical and mental health.

As for delivery of food people should be stepping up to the plate here. There's been a huge response for volunteers. My church have done a buddy system so I'm ringing someone over 70 once a week to see if they need anything like food or prescription collection.

Donald Trump wrote: »

Have there been any reports of the unwanted foreigners (a la Brexit) who man the NHS in the UK deciding to go back home to where they are wanted, in order to help out their own people?

We have all seen the stories of the Irish doctors in New York and Australia trying to get home to help. I'm wondering whether the unwelcome (by many Brexiteers) Eastern Europeans over there?

I support Brexit and I very much value everyone who works in the NHS irrespective of their country of origin. I'm a big supporter of controlled immigration. You may want to take this to the other thread however.

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2020 01:59PM

theological wrote: »

The reality is nobody will be able to determine this for sure because there's a myriad of factors at play including greater exposure to China and population density. What matters is that people follow the guidance and we get through it.

I genuinely think there won't be a large difference between the UK and other EU countries. It could fare better than many also.

The UK are preparing significantly for dealing with more patients and have created a lot of space. The antibody test coming online in the next few weeks will also help greatly.

What matters is getting through this and getting on with life as soon as possible.

You said this:
"I genuinely don't think there's any good evidence to suggest that the UK response will yield worse results than other countries."

That's what I was responding to by comparing Britain and Ireland. Wrt "the UK and other EU countries" Britain's economy is taking a significantly bigger hit precisely because it is no longer a member of the EU and doesn't have the EU's financial clout. This will have yet another detrimental effect on Britain's response.

Donald Trump · 28-03-2020 02:00PM

theological wrote: »

I support Brexit and I very much value everyone who works in the NHS irrespective of their country of origin. I'm a big supporter of controlled immigration. You may want to take this to the other thread however.

It's relevant here. I'm just asking if it has happened or has been reported. If it has, then the next question will be if the UK has reacted to that - either by offering some incentive or trying to attract in replacements.

I actually know a few Irish doctors/nurses who are now based in the UK. Perhaps the government here should consider measures to entice them home. Or at least consider it over the next couple of months.

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2020 02:00PM

meeeeh wrote: »

You can only apply logic to very precise data and to exact information about what is going on and if you know the state of health system very well. We can speculate but nothing is logical if it's built on not enough data and knowledge. And most of us here don't have it.

So, in the context of Covid-19, you have no opinion as to whether you would rather be living in Britain or Ireland in 2020. Okay.

theological · 28-03-2020 02:06PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

It's relevant here. I'm just asking if it has happened or has been reported. If it has, then the next question will be if the UK has reacted to that - either by offering some incentive or trying to attract in replacements.

I actually know a few Irish doctors/nurses who are now based in the UK. Perhaps the government here should consider measures to entice them home. Or at least consider it over the next couple of months.

Goodness you're fierce bitter.

They could also stay in Britain and contribute to saving lives there.

Donald Trump · 28-03-2020 02:07PM

theological wrote: »

Goodness you're fierce bitter.

They could also stay in Britain and contribute to saving lives there.

It's ok dude. You can stay with "Team GB" if ya want. Others might like to come home.

meeeeh · 28-03-2020 02:09PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So, in the context of Covid-19, you have no opinion as to whether you would rather be living in Britain or Ireland in 2020. Okay.

I would rather live in Ireland but I don't delude myself that it's a logical choice. I bet you majority of people from UK would answer they would rather live in UK.

lainey_d_123 · 28-03-2020 02:10PM

theological wrote: »

I've been out on a walk for the last 2 hours through fields without seeing a soul on Ordinance Survey routes. Unless horses count that is! There's nothing dangerous at all about going on a jog or a walk.

It is necessary for physical and mental health.

With all due respect, did you not read what I wrote?? I didn't say going out for a jog was inherently dangerous, I said people are making it dangerous because of their inability to respect guidelines and use their brains. I live in east London. It's impossible for me to get out of the house without coming across other people, and if those people are not respecting distancing guidelines, they are putting me at risk.

As for delivery of food people should be stepping up to the plate here. There's been a huge response for volunteers. My church have done a buddy system so I'm ringing someone over 70 once a week to see if they need anything like food or prescription collection.

They are, but they're favouring the elderly and extremely vulnerable, and obviously I wouldn't want to take up time and risk someone worse off than me missing out. There are lots of people who are physically unable to even get to the shops. I can, but boy do I wish I hadn't listened to the 'positive thinking' folk, and just massively stocked up, as was my instinct at the time.

I support Brexit and I very much value everyone who works in the NHS irrespective of their country of origin. I'm a big supporter of controlled immigration. You may want to take this to the other thread however.

I knew there had to be a reason for your bizarrely blinkered, sheltered, overly optimistic view of this whole thing. There's positive thinking and there's burying your head in the sand, and you're veering towards the latter.

theological · 28-03-2020 02:14PM

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

I knew there had to be a reason for your bizarrely blinkered, sheltered, overly optimistic view of this whole thing. There's positive thinking and there's burying your head in the sand, and you're veering towards the latter.

I'm deeply sorry that I offended you with my wrongthink but provided that everyone keeps to the emergency legislation on this we'll get through it.

If you've got good evidence that the UK is going to fare substantially worse than other countries in Europe do let me know.

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2020 02:15PM

meeeeh wrote: »

I would rather live in Ireland but I don't delude myself that it's a logical choice. I bet you majority of people from UK would answer they would rather live in UK.

Sentiment aside, what criteria are you using to make that choice in terms of Cobvid-19 responses and potential mortality rates?

meeeeh · 28-03-2020 02:24PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Sentiment aside, what criteria are you using to make that choice in terms of Cobvid-19 responses and potential mortality rates?

Gut feeling. But that's still not logic.

meeeeh · 28-03-2020 02:32PM

McGiver wrote: »

So far the leaders in terms of lowest deaths as a % of cases are:
Germany with a huge lead
Switzerland
Austria
Luxembourg
Norway
Czech Republic
Finland
Slovenia

Poland and Ireland not doing bad at all.

Sweden, Denmark, Belgium quite disappointing.

Italy, Spain, UK, the Netherlands, France quite poor.

Just as by the by 8 out of 9 deaths in Slovenia are old peoples home and I think they are doing only palliative care there on majority of cases because there is not much of a point putting 90 year old on a ventilator. Considering the number of infections those two homes have stats for Slovenia will probably go up a good bit.

That's the beauty of numbers in small countries, if you don't know the details it is very hard to judge the situation.

bob mcbob · 28-03-2020 02:32PM

Interesting article on the BBC. Apparently how epidemiologists measure success (or failure) is the rate of increase of deaths rather than absolute numbers.

Currently UK is every 2.5 days and although it started above Italy it is now tracking pretty close to Italy and on track for deaths doubling every 3 days.

France started on doubling every 2 days now after lockdown tracking towards every 3 days. Germany is similar.

Spain is an absolute s***show. It was doubling less than 2 days now is tracking below 2 but still a long way to even hit 3 days.

Other than Spain there is currently not a huge difference between most European countries

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52056111

Professor Moriarty · 28-03-2020 02:33PM

meeeeh wrote: »

Gut feeling. But that's still not logic.

Well 'gut feeling' is instinct. Instinct is a subconscious decision making process that involves unconscious process driven by primitive needs and learnt cognitive and emotional responses. Logic it certainly isn't. Logic is the application of rationality to information. Having informed myself as much as possible, I have applied logic to my information. The result of that process is that, in my opinion, Britain is in much more trouble than Ireland.

lainey_d_123 · 28-03-2020 02:35PM

theological wrote: »

I'm deeply sorry that I offended you with my wrongthink but provided that everyone keeps to the emergency legislation on this we'll get through it.

If you've got good evidence that the UK is going to fare substantially worse than other countries in Europe do let me know.

Look at the numbers. We're already on track to be as bad as Italy, and without the specialist equipment and top class hospitals they have. I have friends working in hospitals and they're already at capacity, totally stretched, and this is only the beginning. I think you have your head in the sand here.

The UK response to Covid-19 [MOD WARNING 1ST POST]

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