Labour Leadership Race 2020

SharpshooterTom · 07-01-2020 3:34am #1

Keir Starmer has opened up a solid lead over his rivals in the race to succeed Jeremy Corbyn, according to the first poll of Labour members seen by Sky News.

The Shadow Brexit Secretary beats Rebecca Long-Bailey, the shadow business secretary and favourite of many of those around Mr Corbyn, with Jess Phillips in third place.

YouGov polled 1,059 Labour members for the Economic and Social Research Council's Party Members Project who they'd vote for in the last 10 days of December.

The Labour members were asked to list the likely contenders in terms of their order of preference, as they will be when they vote.

Poll released on New Years Day

Labour party membership, first preference for leader:

Keir Starmer - 31%
Rebecca Long Bailey - 20%
Jess Phillips - 11%
Yvette Cooper - 7%
Clive Lewis - 7%
Emily Thornberry - 6%
Lisa Nandy - 5%

Once it goes down to a head to head between Long-Bailey and Starmer, Keir leads on 61-39.

Interesting Sky News have gone with the headline "Sir Keir".

https://news.sky.com/story/labour-leadership-sir-keir-starmer-takes-lead-in-race-to-replace-corbyn-poll-11899154

Rebecca Long-Bailey has announced her candidacy yesterday.

Long-Bailey's parents are Irish, will be interesting to see how the right wing press deal with a potential second generation Irish PM if she becomes leader? Although she's probably not got the same potential headwinds as say someone like Sadiq Khan or David Lammy would face if they were running, I've read a few on social media who have said they are uncomfortable of someone of significant Irish catholic background becoming British PM. I suspect those types are people who would never vote Labour anyway.

L1011 · 07-01-2020 8:45am

He is meant to be referred to as Sir Kier and you'd be surprised how many people would get snippy if they didn't. Mainly Tories!

ancapailldorcha · 07-01-2020 12:32pm

Interesting that Keir Starmer is so far ahead. I would have thought the favourite would have been Long-Bailey or Rayner.

johnnyskeleton · 07-01-2020 3:45pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Interesting that Keir Starmer is so far ahead. I would have thought the favourite would have been Long-Bailey or Rayner.

Hard to know what the internal politics of the Labour party are, nor how they would manifest themselves.

As I understand it, Starmer is being softly positioned as the Blair-lite and Long-Bailey is being softly positioned as the Corbyn-lite. The lite seems to denote the fact that neither person is willing to be identified relative to their predecessors, but for the times we live in things need to be simplified and people want a tribe to subscribe to!

Ultimately Labour must pick one - they are either the center left social democrat party or they are the proper left socialist party. Or else they should split!

Nody · 07-01-2020 4:03pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Ultimately Labour must pick one - they are either the center left social democrat party or they are the proper left socialist party. Or else they should split!

I'd wish they would split to allow a really centric party who can steal the middle ground from Tories without the baggage; but sadly that'd never work in the UK

ancapailldorcha · 07-01-2020 4:04pm

Nody wrote: »

I'd wish they would split to allow a really centric party who can steal the middle ground from Tories without the baggage; but sadly that'd never work in the UK

Ideally, both of them would split and we'd have some sort of proportional system. Instead the status quo benefits those able to change it too much for them to ever consider doing so.

DrumSteve · 07-01-2020 4:13pm

Has to be Starmer, Long-Bailey gets elected you're looking at 10 years of Boris.

Nody · 07-01-2020 4:27pm

DrumSteve wrote: »

Has to be Starmer, Long-Bailey gets elected you're looking at 10 years of Boris.

I think Labour can elect a wet smelly socket and Boris is not going to make it 10 years if Brexit goes bad; the thing for Labour though is that nothing they do at this stage will affect the outcome as much as the Brexit aftereffects (be that positive or negative) will in the next election and how to re-engage with their voting base (what ever base they think that will be).

Liberta Per Gli Ultra · 07-01-2020 10:10pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Ultimately Labour must pick one - they are either the center left social democrat party or they are the proper left socialist party. Or else they should split!

The British Labour Party has never been a "proper left socialist party", despite any token mentions of public ownership of industry in its old constitution or literature. At certain points in history it has been a social democratic party, and for the last 30 years or so it has been a centrist party in favour of deregulation and privatisation.

The right wing of the Labour Party should leave and join forces with the more centrist members of the Conservative Party to form a Centre Party. They could go around the north of England explaining to people the merits of finance capitalism and privatisation.

Professor Moriarty · 07-01-2020 10:19pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Hard to know what the internal politics of the Labour party are, nor how they would manifest themselves.

As I understand it, Starmer is being softly positioned as the Blair-lite and Long-Bailey is being softly positioned as the Corbyn-lite. The lite seems to denote the fact that neither person is willing to be identified relative to their predecessors, but for the times we live in things need to be simplified and people want a tribe to subscribe to!

Ultimately Labour must pick one - they are either the center left social democrat party or they are the proper left socialist party. Or else they should split!

Today, Long Bailey gave Corbyn "10 out of 10" for his leadership and blamed the media for his poor image. If only she was joking.

rockatansky · 07-01-2020 10:25pm

Watched Starmer during some of the Brexit debates in the HOC. Blatantly obvious he would be next leader. Was quite impressed by him. His ability to communicate is the one thing clearly missing from Corbyn.

Professor Moriarty · 07-01-2020 10:27pm

rockatansky wrote: »

Watched Starmer during some of the Brexit debates in the HOC. Blatantly obvious he would be next leader. Was quite impressed by him. His ability to communicate is the one thing clearly missing from Corbyn.

He's a barrister and former DPP. He'll be infinitely superior to Corbyn when debating in the HoC.

A Dub in Glasgo · 07-01-2020 10:53pm

Phillips showed herself up as deluded today where she attempted to wave away Scottish mandate for another Scottish Independence referendum

“I don’t think we should have another referendum on Scottish independence — 53 per cent of the Scottish public in the general election did not vote for a party that was promoting independence . . . ' yet she endorses a system at westminster where the minority rule the majority

“I cannot understand that you’re pro-European but you’re not pro-UK. You think it is important to be part of that but not part of the UK." - anyone know a country that was in the UK and is now in the EU who think it is perfectly understandable!

man98 · 07-01-2020 11:12pm

johnnyskeleton wrote: »

Hard to know what the internal politics of the Labour party are, nor how they would manifest themselves.

As I understand it, Starmer is being softly positioned as the Blair-lite and Long-Bailey is being softly positioned as the Corbyn-lite. The lite seems to denote the fact that neither person is willing to be identified relative to their predecessors, but for the times we live in things need to be simplified and people want a tribe to subscribe to!

Ultimately Labour must pick one - they are either the center left social democrat party or they are the proper left socialist party. Or else they should split!

Starmer is certainly not Blair-lite, in fact he took the Blair administration to court in his previous career as a barrister. The battle for leadership isn't really being fought at a pro vs anti Corbyn level, though these camps are represented as Long Bailey vs Philips, but it is clear Starmer is going support from across all wings of the party. He actually works quite well as a unity candidate, as I would imagine most in the Long Bailey, Philips, Thornberry and Nandy camps would be happy with him leading as well. Personally I think UK Labour needs its first female leader, but that Starmer is very able to rise to the challenge as leader. Labour has never been a proper left socialist party, and they're certainly not hard left as the media puts it. In terms of nationalising public transport; water companies and the gas grid, these are issues that are just broadly accepted even by the centre right (FF/FG) here. Of course these policies seem radical in a country which is even privatising libraries and graveyards...

Nody wrote: »

I'd wish they would split to allow a really centric party who can steal the middle ground from Tories without the baggage; but sadly that'd never work in the UK

See Change UK, which lost all its seats in the most recent UK general election. Centrism had its time, as in the Blair/ Clinton/ Schroeder years, but the mantra of "it's the economy stupid" doesn't cut ice any more and people don't want centrism right now.

devnull · 11-01-2020 7:35pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Today, Long Bailey gave Corbyn "10 out of 10" for his leadership and blamed the media for his poor image. If only she was joking.

Long Bailey is basically a younger version of Corbyn in a skirt for the most part, if she wins the leadership election then you're just going to give the Tories a free pass for the next election.

She's even hired a good amount of Corbyn's campaign team and the head of Momentum, anyone who things that she is Corbyn lite is living in cloud cuckoo land, the likes of her are part of the problem in Labour.

Has to be Keir for me, good to see that Unison has backed him, they're a proper, sensible union, unlike others.

SharpshooterTom · 12-01-2020 8:57am

Like I said in my OP Long-Bailey will likely run into some headwinds in general election for the fact she has Irish parents. I'm personally not convinced sections of UK electorate would be open to a second gen Irish PM who has no British family.

Anyway Keir Starmer is 1/3 with the bookies, Long-Bailey second favourite 5/1, so he is the strong favourite, very likely their best candidate also, although I do think if Boris is to be defeated in 2024 the economy will have to tank since he's a very popular candidate himself.

Hello 2D Person Below · 14-01-2020 1:20pm

It's a pity Rayner has taken her name out of the hat and has settled for potential deputy leader role.

Think she'd be a lot closer to Starmer than Long-Bailey.

Water John · 14-01-2020 6:25pm

Jess Phillips goes high and low, love this;
'The Labour leadership candidate Jess Phillips has also written an article for the Guardian setting out a six-point plan for restoring trust in politics. Her proposals included: a fairer voting system; using citizen assemblies to shape climate crisis policy; voting at 16, with people being automatically enrolled on the electoral register when they get a national insurance number; and a body to regulate online political advertising. It is all quite constructive and high-minded.

In the article she also describes Boris Johnson as a “blond baboon”, which is less constructive and high-minded.' Guardian.

Edgware · 14-01-2020 7:04pm

Long Bailey won't make it. Too much of the over
excited Trinity Arts Student about her

A Dub in Glasgo · 14-01-2020 7:50pm

Phillips was up in Scotland and thinks that dissing the SNP is going to back Labour popular in Scotland!

I’m unashamedly unionist, leadership hopeful Jess Phillips boasts

https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1217110824491323395

Joe_ Public · 14-01-2020 7:58pm

Not sure whats to be gained by going in strong either way on scottish independence. The labour membership is split on the issue according to most polls I've seen. Does phillips see some apparent edge there? Cant see it personally. Think starmer can romp home in this without having to do very much. Was sorry to see lewis go, very impressive candidate as long as he lasted.

An Ciarraioch · 17-01-2020 4:44pm

No fan of RLB, but an outrageous comment from Paul Mason!

https://twitter.com/paulmasonnews/status/1218155368594968578

Joe_ Public · 17-01-2020 6:24pm

Just baffling stuff from mason, usually an acerbic and thoughtful commentator. Its the kind of conspiracy stuff you expect from the nutty right and, worse, he just doesnt seem to get it. You expect this on the labour left from the right wing media or even the general public, but coming from your own side? Just shows how far they have to go.

Mancomb Seepgood · 17-01-2020 7:15pm

I mean,RLB supported the repeal of the abortion ban in NI,supported same-sex marriage..and we're supposed to believe she's some type of Vatican sleeper agent? Desperate stuff from Mason and he's only exposing his own bigotry.

Professor Moriarty · 17-01-2020 7:45pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Just baffling stuff from mason, usually an acerbic and thoughtful commentator. Its the kind of conspiracy stuff you expect from the nutty right and, worse, he just doesnt seem to get it. You expect this on the labour left from the right wing media or even the general public, but coming from your own side? Just shows how far they have to go.

Starmer is Mason's preferred candidate so he's undermining RLB. It's politics.

Joe_ Public · 17-01-2020 8:00pm

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Starmer is Mason's preferred candidate so he's undermining RLB. It's politics.

Sure, i get that. But you think mason is helping Starmers case with that and subsequent tweets? Maybe fighting dirty is the way to win nationally - and I'm not convinced that will work anyway - but i dont see it working in this contest. If anything, i see this only eliciting more sympathy for RLB.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2020 10:45am

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Sure, i get that. But you think mason is helping Starmers case with that and subsequent tweets? Maybe fighting dirty is the way to win nationally - and I'm not convinced that will work anyway - but i dont see it working in this contest. If anything, i see this only eliciting more sympathy for RLB.

Obviously Mason sees it as an opportunity. She's in the papers today denying that her religion will interfere with her politics so that's a win for Starmer.

Joe_ Public · 18-01-2020 11:46am

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Obviously Mason sees it as an opportunity. She's in the papers today denying that her religion will interfere with her politics so that's a win for Starmer.

Yeah, i see that. End justifying the means. As you said earlier, its politics. I totally get it.

Thing is, i would bet my mortgage that if Keir Starmer was was getting similar treatment in the media, Mason would be one of the first out of the blocks complaining about the right controlling the narrative with their lies and sinister attempts to smear their rivals on the left. Yet he feels free to smear RLB in a low, mean-handed way because, well, opportunity. Thats politics. It may well be but its also monumental hypocrisy and all the sadder because you expect better from him.

I also wonder if its entirely coincidental he came out with his slur the day after a survation poll of labour members showed starmer and bailey running neck and neck? Had the faint whiff of desperation off it i thought.

ancapailldorcha · 18-01-2020 12:25pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Just baffling stuff from mason, usually an acerbic and thoughtful commentator. Its the kind of conspiracy stuff you expect from the nutty right and, worse, he just doesnt seem to get it. You expect this on the labour left from the right wing media or even the general public, but coming from your own side? Just shows how far they have to go.

I wouldn't say that it's baffling. The left in this country, along with many others is riven by infighting amongst various factions. I'm actually surprised that this is the extent of it in 2020.

Joe_ Public · 18-01-2020 12:37pm

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

I wouldn't say that it's baffling. The left in this country, along with many others is riven by infighting amongst various factions. I'm actually surprised that this is the extent of it in 2020.

Thats not what puzzles me though. Obviously in fighting on the left is not hold the front page news (cf. Warren v Sanders). What baffles me is that Mason would think it was fair game to come up with some crackpot theory that RLB takes her religious instruction from the vatican which can only be read as attempt to portray her mischievously as pro life. I like Mason generally so judge him to higher standards but maybe i have to review that in the light of this.

I dont have a dog in this leadership contest btw. Just cant abide what i see as the gross hypocrisy of what mason said.

Professor Moriarty · 18-01-2020 2:25pm

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Yeah, i see that. End justifying the means. As you said earlier, its politics. I totally get it.

Thing is, i would bet my mortgage that if Keir Starmer was was getting similar treatment in the media, Mason would be one of the first out of the blocks complaining about the right controlling the narrative with their lies and sinister attempts to smear their rivals on the left. Yet he feels free to smear RLB in a low, mean-handed way because, well, opportunity. Thats politics. It may well be but its also monumental hypocrisy and all the sadder because you expect better from him.

I also wonder if its entirely coincidental he came out with his slur the day after a survation poll of labour members showed starmer and bailey running neck and neck? Had the faint whiff of desperation off it i thought.

It's from the Lyndon Johnson play book. He told his campaign manager to tell people that his opponent was having illicit sex. The campaign manager told Johnson it wasn't true. To which Johnson replied: "Of course not, but let's hear the bastard deny it."

Labour Leadership Race 2020

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