Saturday - Turbulence forecast

GBX · 07-11-2019 12:52pm #1

Due to fly on Saturday at 15.00 Dub to Faro. Had a look at the forecast for travel. Would I be right in saying according to this that its likely to be somewhat turbulent ?

https://www.turbulenceforecast.com/250mb-europe.php?hour=60

coylemj · 07-11-2019 6:51pm

I think that map you provided a link to has an isobar for every single hectopascal which would tend to make any wind look pretty fierce, I don't think Saturday is going to be that bad.

Met Eireann forecast map (link below) says that (as of 17:45 today, Thursday) there will be a depression in the Irish Sea at 12 noon on Saturday but it will be rapidly moving east. You will then be flying across well spread out isobars and I'd say will have a pretty smooth trip. There should be a big anticyclone out in the Atlanic directly west of Gibraltar so it shouldn't be too windy.

Try this Met Eireann Atlantic forecast map and see if it reassures you, it predicts that at 18:00 on Saturday, you will fly all the way from NW Spain to Faro without crossing a single isobar. The scale on the time bar on the bottom is one dot for 6 hours so you need to study 12:00 and 18:00 on Saturday...... https://www.met.ie/forecasts/atlantic-charts/precipitation-pressure

GBX · 07-11-2019 9:04pm

Thanks for the info. Love flying but it's the one part that gets into my head. Always aware of how safe flying is as well

coylemj · 08-11-2019 12:36am

GBX wrote: »

Thanks for the info. Love flying but it's the one part that gets into my head. Always aware of how safe flying is as well

+1 same here. I find that, even though the anxiety is in your head, relieving some of the physical discomfort associated with flying can pay dividends. Travel ear plugs and travel socks, try them.

Gaoth Laidir · 08-11-2019 8:22am

GBX wrote: »

Due to fly on Saturday at 15.00 Dub to Faro. Had a look at the forecast for travel. Would I be right in saying according to this that its likely to be somewhat turbulent ?

https://www.turbulenceforecast.com/250mb-europe.php?hour=60

Here are the CAT (Clear-air Turbulence) charts for 1200 on Saturday for 34,000 and 39,000 ft. Darker colours are higher turbulence. This evening the updated forecast will be available at the following link (click on 12 when it shows).

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/wafc/2019/11/08/

martinsvi · 08-11-2019 11:55am

GBX wrote: »

Due to fly on Saturday at 15.00 Dub to Faro. Had a look at the forecast for travel. Would I be right in saying according to this that its likely to be somewhat turbulent ?

https://www.turbulenceforecast.com/250mb-europe.php?hour=60

just because there are high wind speeds aloft, doesn't mean it will be turbulent. The core of the jet stream can actually be super smooth and in your case provide a much shorter flight time. It is only when you ride on the edge of the jet stream or cross it in an angle when it can, for periods, get bumpy. I just checked my Jeppesen app and it paints most bumps over France, you should stay well clear of it

GBX · 08-11-2019 12:17pm

Thanks for the info Gaoth Laidir and Martin.

coylemj · 08-11-2019 6:18pm

martinsvi wrote: »

just because there are high wind speeds aloft, doesn't mean it will be turbulent. The core of the jet stream can actually be super smooth and in your case provide a much shorter flight time.

+1 had that experience on a flight from JFK to DUB a few years ago. Sitting on the tarmac in JFK, the EI pilot started his pre-flight annoucement with 'welcome to the rocky road to Dublin' :eek: My heart sank.

He explained that we would have a very strong jetstream as a tailwind and would get to Dublin over an hour earlier than scheduled but .... 'it might be a bumpy ride', my heart sank again.

Turned out, (as poster martinsvi suggested above) that it was probably the smoothest transatlantic flights I was ever on. There was a gentle rumble for almost the whole duration of the flight but it didn't bother anyone.

Note to pilots carrying fare-paying passengers... we don't want to know about 'Txxxxx' in advance. It makes the whole flight a white-knuckle ride, instead of just the bits with the bumps.

Locker10a · 08-11-2019 6:54pm

coylemj wrote: »

+1 had that experience on a flight from JFK to DUB a few years ago. Sitting on the tarmac in JFK, the EI pilot started his pre-flight annoucement with 'welcome to the rocky road to Dublin' :eek: My heart sank.

He explained that we would have a very strong jetstream as a tailwind and would get to Dublin over an hour earlier than scheduled but .... 'it might be a bumpy ride', my heart sank again.

Turned out, (as poster martinsvi suggested above) that it was probably the smoothest transatlantic flights I was ever on. There was a gentle rumble for almost the whole duration of the flight but it didn't bother anyone.

Note to pilots carrying fare-paying passengers... we don't want to know about 'Txxxxx' in advance. It makes the whole flight a white-knuckle ride, instead of just the bits with the bumps.

To be fair there are plenty of nervous pax who do want to know! And it’s the first think they ask upon boarding! So pilots should just continue to be honest with their announcements, it may or may not happen, weather changes and can be unpredictable.

Poochie05 · 09-11-2019 9:13am

Locker10a wrote: »

To be fair there are plenty of nervous pax who do want to know! And it’s the first think they ask upon boarding! So pilots should just continue to be honest with their announcements, it may or may not happen, weather changes and can be unpredictable.

I’m one of those passengers who does want to know. It adds to that reassurance that the pilots have 'got this'.

Nicetrustedcup · 09-11-2019 3:07pm

I had a small bit of turbulince coming back from faro before was grand.

However coming back from Hong Kong was the worst ever. Nearly 4 hours of up down side to side you name it. I looked at the flight tracking when I landed and I seen we kept changing deraction and going higher ans lower and give me a lot of faith in the pilot as he was avoidong a lot of it.

As long as you see the cabin crew walking around its Notting to worry about at all.

coylemj · 09-11-2019 6:21pm

Locker10a wrote: »

To be fair there are plenty of nervous pax who do want to know! And it’s the first think they ask upon boarding! So pilots should just continue to be honest with their announcements, it may or may not happen, weather changes and can be unpredictable.

Which is precisely why I don't see the point in announcing that there may be turbulence. I was on a recent flight where the pilot announced (before takeoff) that it would be a pleasant flight, then we took off and they left the 'fasten seat belt' light on for almost 30 minutes! But there was no turbulence.

So before takeoff they thought there would be no turbulence, after take off they thought there might be turbulence. But we encountered no turbulence. So what's the point in announcing anything?

Locker10a · 09-11-2019 7:14pm

coylemj wrote: »

Which is precisely why I don't see the point in announcing that there may be turbulence. I was on a recent flight where the pilot announced (before takeoff) that it would be a pleasant flight, then we took off and they left the 'fasten seat belt' light on for almost 30 minutes! But there was no turbulence.

So before takeoff they thought there would be no turbulence, after take off they thought there might be turbulence. But we encountered no turbulence. So what's the point in announcing anything?

Could make the same argument against Met Eireann broadcasting the weather everyday. The try to predict it but it mostly changes in Ireland and often predicted weather doesn’t happen so should they just not bother with a forecast at all ...

GBX · 09-11-2019 9:19pm

Well the flight went well. Was a little choppy for 2 periods of about 10/15 mins. Nothing too major. But overall was grand.

Brennus335 · 10-11-2019 4:47pm

Which is why during my "Welcome on board PA" I always say the forecast conditions en route are good. In reality they may forecast moderate occasional severe turbulence, but what's the point in scaring nervous flyers?
My wife is terrified of the slightest bump, so I've first hand knowledge of the fear it can impart on people.
It's one of those bits of personal experience information that I give to FO 's on upgrade line training.

Spanish Eyes · 10-11-2019 10:37pm

Brennus335 wrote: »

Which is why during my "Welcome on board PA" I always say the forecast conditions en route are good. In reality they may forecast moderate occasional severe turbulence, but what's the point in scaring nervous flyers?
My wife is terrified of the slightest bump, so I've first hand knowledge of the fear it can impart on people.
It's one of those bits of personal experience information that I give to FO 's on upgrade line training.

Nice post, but to be honest whilst I am not that bothered safety wise regarding turbulence, it can be stomach churning at times really, especially if there is a dip and up away again feeling! Maybe you in the pointy end don't experience this, but it ain't nice either!

Anyway thanks for the post.

Locker10a · 11-11-2019 1:10am

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Nice post, but to be honest whilst I am not that bothered safety wise regarding turbulence, it can be stomach churning at times really, especially if there is a dip and up away again feeling! Maybe you in the pointy end don't experience this, but it ain't nice either!

Anyway thanks for the post.

Sorry, but every little blip can’t be predicted, ever flown through a contrail ? Sometimes you’ll certainly feel it!! But you wouldn’t be able to predict/warn against it. Just part and parcel of flying through the skies and weather

Henry Ford III · 13-11-2019 3:12pm

I flew into the remnants of Hurricane Lorenzo. It was a big disappointment.

The United crew were told to be seated, and we were warned conditions were expected to get "a lot worse". Whilst there was a bit of chop ultimately it really wasn't so bad.

The pilot made a ultra smooth landing in Shannon too.

martinsvi · 15-11-2019 10:37am

we try to be honest with our passengers, if the bumps are in the forecast, we let pax know. Unfortunately the traveling public is getting more loose and entitled every day. People board the plane with bellies full of beer, walk around during taxi and occasionally during take-off roll, just to get to the bathroom. Seat-belt sign has lost any meaning to people. And then of course when things get rough, it is always our fault and reports/complains start to fly. If quality department starts to ask questions, it's always nice to write them back a one liner - we told them it will be bumpy and the seat belt sign was on!

duskyjoe · 15-11-2019 12:21pm

Brennus335 wrote: »

Which is why during my "Welcome on board PA" I always say the forecast conditions en route are good. In reality they may forecast moderate occasional severe turbulence, but what's the point in scaring nervous flyers?
My wife is terrified of the slightest bump, so I've first hand knowledge of the fear it can impart on people.
It's one of those bits of personal experience information that I give to FO 's on upgrade line training.

Hmmm, so if it’s sporty and seasonal outside you (a) tell your passengers that the weather is fine and (b) you advise f/o’s in the command upgrade process to tell same?

Not on my watch and I’m in the game a long time. Blatantly saying to folk all is serene with a howling gale outside is plain wrong and disingenuous. Most fare paying folk want to know the truth and want reassurance that those in the pointy end are on it, with the reassurance over the PA that it will be slightly bumpy after departure but my experience is if you give a time time frame when you are to expect the bumps and when it will cease .....this is the reassurance punters want not plain smug bluff bluster and waffle. Likewise if I’m told pre departure re a nervous passenger I will personally go down to them and chat with them, even if it delays the flight by a minute or two.....face to face reassurance with nervous passengers makes the world for people.

Doctors differ etc but on this one the all is well strategy when winds howling outside or at destination ....hmmm

GBX · 15-11-2019 12:49pm

Some interesting replies on the thread. Thanks again for opinions.
Back to my original question .... I'm flying back from Faro tomorrow. Going by the link posted by Gaoth Laidir and looking at tomorrow's CAT, could be somewhat bumpy as I see the jet stream edge somewhere between Faro and Dublin

Maybe (quite possibly ) I'm wrong.

duskyjoe · 15-11-2019 12:54pm

GBX , you’ll be fine......relax and enjoy your trip home. Weather back home Baltic.

GBX · 15-11-2019 12:59pm

duskyjoe wrote: »

GBX , you’ll be fine......relax and enjoy your trip home. Weather back home Baltic.

Yeah I'll do that. More intrigued than anything. Thanks Joe

martinsvi · 15-11-2019 2:48pm

GBX wrote: »

Some interesting replies on the thread. Thanks again for opinions.
Back to my original question .... I'm flying back from Faro tomorrow. Going by the link posted by Gaoth Laidir and looking at tomorrow's CAT, could be somewhat bumpy as I see the jet stream edge somewhere between Faro and Dublin
Maybe (quite possibly ) I'm wrong.

Tomorrow looks absolutely fine, some bumps over Spain, but your route looks clear. Today on the other hand, does look a bit rough, particularly for lower flight levels

duskyjoe · 15-11-2019 2:59pm

Load up your phone / iPad with movies - it’ll be a long flight home with strong head winds. Now go out and enjoy yourself tonight and stop worrying about bumps etc- let the lads and lassies worry about that . As above the coast is clear for worrying.

The Bishop Basher · 15-11-2019 3:08pm

Flew back from Amsterdam a couple of weeks ago with a very strong headwind and it wasn’t noticeable at all bar the extra flight time. There was zero chance of spilling my tea so I hope this helps reassure you and as said above, relax and enjoy.

Saturday - Turbulence forecast

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