2019 Spanish General Election

An Ciarraioch · 26-04-2019 1:16pm #1

This Sunday's election promises to be one of the most heated in the country since the return to democracy, not just because of the relatively even balance between the left and right blocs in polling, but also because of the growing tension between the linguistic and regional communities.

The failed Catalan bid for independence in 2017 generated a sharp turn to the right among Castilian (Spanish) speakers, with the Partido Popular losing support not just to Ciudadanos, who were notably vocal at the time of the referendum, but the hard-right newcomers, Vox, who want to abolish regional autonomy, emphasise traditional Spanish values, and have criticised Muslim immigration.

Meanwhile, the Socialists, who brought down the PP PM Rajoy in a vote of no-confidence, have risen somewhat after the record low of 2016, regaining ground from the further-left Podemos party. But neither bloc is expected to win a majority, leaving the balance of power in the hands of Basque and Catalan nationalists.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Spanish_general_election#Voting_intention_estimates

http://electomania.es/

With the latter graph, note that the flower and aubergine represent the PSOE and Podemos, while the last three graphics in the graph stand for the right-wing alliance.

4068ac1elhodqr · 26-04-2019 8:56pm

Vox is a fairly safe bet to win at least 39 seats (or more).

An Ciarraioch · 26-04-2019 9:51pm

Amari Juicy Skit wrote: »

Vox is a fairly safe bet to win at least 39 seats (or more).

Unless, of course, the PP do better than expected on Sunday - they appear to have been improving in the "illegal" polls since the TV debates, and about two-thirds of Vox support has come from PP defectors.

An Ciarraioch · 26-04-2019 10:48pm

Final seat projections of the campaign - with 350 seats, and thus 176 required for a majority, both left and right would be dependent on nationalists to cross the line:

http://twitter.com/electo_mania/status/1121889671913660418

Left 152 (PSOE 105, Podemos 47)
Right 166 (PP 76, Cs 53, Vox 35, Navarre joint ticket 2)
Nationalists 32 (Catalans 19, Basques 9, Valencians 3, Canaries 1)

An Ciarraioch · 28-04-2019 2:59pm

The Spanish government's electoral website is excellent - currently giving turnout levels by region, province and city - particularly high in Catalonia and the Basque Country at the moment:

https://resultados.eleccionesgenerales19.es/Avances/Total-nacional/0/es

Nody · 28-04-2019 7:27pm

Initial results as expected; no clear direction or majorities as it stands and it will come down to the final districts etc. to call this one. Vox preliminary at 12%.

BluePlanet · 29-04-2019 2:48pm

10.3% and 24 Seats, so Vox predictions over-projected.

Thrashssacre · 29-04-2019 2:50pm

BluePlanet wrote: »

10.3% and 24 Seats, so Vox predictions over-projected.

All populists tend to overstate what they’ll get.... in fairness most parties would full stop. Still seems a fairly strong showing for them considering Spain’s history.

BluePlanet · 29-04-2019 3:24pm

One takeaway here should be: Why is Green New Deal type Climate Policy not championing today's headlines?

The PSOE, which campaigned on a sweeping plaform of ecological transition, clinched 29% of the vote and 123 seats in the 350-seat congress.

It will need to form a coalition with populist left-wing party Unidos Podemos (UP), which has also called for a decarbonization of the economy. Even then, it will also require the help of regional parties, or the centre-right Ciudadanos, in order to govern.

Notably, the PSOE also gained votes in coal mining regions where it has struck a major deal to close shut the industry down.

The manifesto called for a “Green New Deal”, which it describes as “a new social contract, a new pact between capital, work and the planet”. That means a “maximum efficiency in the use of natural resources” and the development of “technologies that are less polluting and with less impact on biodiversity, especially renewables and the creation of ‘green jobs’ in every sector”.

PSOE proposed to overhaul the Spanish constitution to include the “consideration of planetary limits as conditions for economic progress,” along with the precautionary principles and the principle of no-return – in legal jargon, a guarantee not to amend environmental law if this lowers standards.

https://www.climatechangenews.com/2019/04/29/spains-socialists-win-election-green-new-deal-platform/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+ClimateHome+%28Climate+Home%29

CrabRevolution · 29-04-2019 6:10pm

Thrashssacre wrote: »

All populists tend to overstate what they’ll get.... in fairness most parties would full stop. Still seems a fairly strong showing for them considering Spain’s history.

A lot of the interest probably comes from outside the country. There seems to be a significant body of people who follow a process of:

1. Get news that there's an election in X European country.
2. Look up who the right wing populist party are in that country.
3. Declare that an election victory is imminent for that party, even though they know nothing about that country, their politics, their parties, who is currently in power etc. and have never expressed any interest or opinion about them.
4. If applicable say that country will soon leave the EU.

After the election when the populists have failed to gain power, they simply forget about it and move on to the next election. If they bother following up on their prediction, they declare victory no matter what the result. Claim that the right wing populist party doubling their vote to 10% will continue in the next election and before long the right wing populists will be in power.

HalloweenJack · 29-04-2019 7:46pm

I live in Spain and there was a lot of talk here about how Vox were going to do. They were expected to do better but its still a shock.

IIRC, they're the first far-right party to win any seats in parliament since the early eighties, i.e. the immediate aftermath of the transition to democracy. A party using the name of Franco's old party (not sure if they are the same) were still on the ballot papers in recent elections so its not as if they didn't have any representation. Vox have found those people and tapped into them.

The Spanish Civil War was a greatly divisive one which still influences society generations later, not to mention the dictatorship afterwards.

If you listen to Vox's leader, he invokes the language of the dictatorship in his speeches. There is no mistaking what he's about. He rants about the "progressive dictatorship" and wants a "Reconquista" (when the Spaniards re-conquered Spain from the Moors). Last night, he referred to the winners of the election as the Frente Nacional, the coalition that won the elections before the Civil War broke out. He is brazenly open about what he's on about. The fact that they went from 0 to 24 is huge news.

Everybody's family has stories from the civil war and a lot of the negative ones are horrendous. People go on about the damage the church did in Ireland in a democracy, well imagine what they could have done in a dictatorship. People look at Vox and you can't be mistaken about the connection between what they represent and what happened in this country's history.

I don't think this is a case of looking into the latest far-right movement in a country that is having elections. There was a real concern here that a right-wing coalition could have won and they would have been part of it. People are saying the result is a rejection of the right more than anything.

Also, Spain has an electoral law that favours the big parties. While the left got more seats, the difference in the popular vote is not that big. I think the difference between the vote for Podemos (42 seats) and vox (24) in terms of votes cast is a lot smaller. They complained about the government using the electoral law against them and they're actually right. A more democratic one would have seen the result being a lot tighter.

So it is big news within the context of Spanish history and society.

An Ciarraioch · 29-04-2019 8:52pm

HalloweenJack wrote: »

I live in Spain and there was a lot of talk here about how Vox were going to do. They were expected to do better but its still a shock.

IIRC, they're the first far-right party to win any seats in parliament since the early eighties, i.e. the immediate aftermath of the transition to democracy. A party using the name of Franco's old party (not sure if they are the same) were still on the ballot papers in recent elections so its not as if they didn't have any representation. Vox have found those people and tapped into them.

The Spanish Civil War was a greatly divisive one which still influences society generations later, not to mention the dictatorship afterwards.

If you listen to Vox's leader, he invokes the language of the dictatorship in his speeches. There is no mistaking what he's about. He rants about the "progressive dictatorship" and wants a "Reconquista" (when the Spaniards re-conquered Spain from the Moors). Last night, he referred to the winners of the election as the Frente Nacional, the coalition that won the elections before the Civil War broke out. He is brazenly open about what he's on about. The fact that they went from 0 to 24 is huge news.

Everybody's family has stories from the civil war and a lot of the negative ones are horrendous. People go on about the damage the church did in Ireland in a democracy, well imagine what they could have done in a dictatorship. People look at Vox and you can't be mistaken about the connection between what they represent and what happened in this country's history.

I don't think this is a case of looking into the latest far-right movement in a country that is having elections. There was a real concern here that a right-wing coalition could have won and they would have been part of it. People are saying the result is a rejection of the right more than anything.

Also, Spain has an electoral law that favours the big parties. While the left got more seats, the difference in the popular vote is not that big. I think the difference between the vote for Podemos (42 seats) and vox (24) in terms of votes cast is a lot smaller. They complained about the government using the electoral law against them and they're actually right. A more democratic one would have seen the result being a lot tighter.

So it is big news within the context of Spanish history and society.

An interesting contrast with the rest of Europe is that Spain is one of the few countries (along with Britain) where the rise of a new right-wing party has served to fracture the right itself, rather than attract social democratic voters. Partly, this is down to Sanchez not only holding his ground, but even moving to the left, to facilitate a supply arrangement with Podemos, but also the PP facilitated the move of their voters to Vox by becoming ever more hawkish on Catalonia.

An Ciarraioch · 30-04-2019 1:58pm

A table showing where each party gained and lost votes since 2016:

http://e00-elmundo.uecdn.es/elmundo/2019/graficos/abr/trans2.jpg

BluePlanet · 02-05-2019 4:51pm

Ok unfortunately i can't access Twitter at work and "copy link to Tweet" isn't doing what i hoped it would on my phone.

But the gist is that people are discovering that the areas where VOX received a higher percentage of votes, are areas where there is a Guardia Civil Headquarters located.

It is speculated that they vote at their work place, some have barracks and operate like a military.

@jack_saundrs (5hrs ago)
@quique_mateo posted it today.

An Ciarraioch · 02-05-2019 7:23pm

BluePlanet wrote: »

Ok unfortunately i can't access Twitter at work and "copy link to Tweet" isn't doing what i hoped it would on my phone.

But the gist is that people are discovering that the areas where VOX received a higher percentage of votes, are areas where there is a Guardia Civil Headquarters located.

It is speculated that they vote at their work place, some have barracks and operate like a military.

@jack_saundrs (5hrs ago)
@quique_mateo posted it today.

Probably not terribly surprising to Basques and Catalans.

An Ciarraioch · 02-05-2019 7:27pm

http://twitter.com/quique_mateo/status/1123870546066800640

2019 Spanish General Election

Comments