Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

prawnsambo · 02-04-2019 08:55AM

Enzokk wrote: »

That is some interview. I guess that is John Humphreys interviewing him and would explain the soft approach to his answers and the facts he is stating. You can dismiss anything he says in the first few minutes to be honest, he seems to refer to GATT Article 24 as he talks about the EU agreeing with free trade with the UK while negotiating the deal. He correctly states, which is more than most Brexiters, that is would be needed to be agreed by both parties. He doesn't point out that this has never been done before by 2 countries and is there for the purposes of 2 countries agreeing a free trade agreement, not undoing one as the UK and EU would do.

The purpose of GATT 24 is not for a free trade agreement but a free-trade area. This has often been spouted by brexiters as the two seem interchangeable when they are not. To be exact, the parties have to be negotiating a customs union or a free-trade area and both stating this to be the case. A crash-out brexit is the exact opposite of what GATT 24 is for.

Leroy42 · 02-04-2019 09:03AM

As these were indicative votes, I really don't understand the position of the likes of the SNP in abstaining from some of them. Listening to 5Live this am, the SNP guy was saying that they abstained because the CU vote didn't deal with FoM.

Well, fair enough, but getting that passed would have signaled that the HoC wanted something other than a No Deal. TM will come back today and claim that since there is no alternative agreed, then it must be her deal or No Deal.

Surely they should have voted for any of them, and all of them, that moved the HoC position closer to where they want it to be.

They all, remainers and brexiteers, seemed to be only ever to vote for the 'perfect' solution.

blackwhite · 02-04-2019 09:16AM

20silkcut wrote: »

What is the situation in regard to the land bridge to Europe from here??

Are we not facing the same shortages as the U.K.??

I know the ferries to France won’t be delayed but what is the crossing time on them?? 13/14 hours ??

Our requirements are different to the UK - chiefly being that we produce a significantly higher percentage of our own food than they do!

The Landbridge is going to come under significant pressure, but if the delays at Holyhead (in particular) or at Dover become too much, all of the major ferry operators on the Irish Sea have vessels capable of switching from Dublin-Holyhead or Dublin-Liverpool to French routes instead.

Peregrinus · 02-04-2019 09:18AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

As these were indicative votes, I really don't understand the position of the likes of the SNP in abstaining from some of them. Listening to 5Live this am, the SNP guy was saying that they abstained because the CU vote didn't deal with FoM.

Well, fair enough, but getting that passed would have signaled that the HoC wanted something other than a No Deal. TM will come back today and claim that since there is no alternative agreed, then it must be her deal or No Deal.

Surely they should have voted for any of them, and all of them, that moved the HoC position closer to where they want it to be.

They all, remainers and brexiteers, seemed to be only ever to vote for the 'perfect' solution.

The problem is that if you lend your votes to create a majority for a Customs Union Brexit, the likely outcome is that you'll get a Customs Union Brexit, with no second referendum, and Freedom of Movement still ended. The notion that if, with 11 days to go, Parliament finally agrees to something, this opens up all kind of possibilities for other kinds of Brexit, is not a very plausible one. If Parliament agrees to a form of Brexit at this stage, that's got to be the odds-on favourite for the kind of Brexit the UK will get.

I don't think you can accuse the SNP of being obstructionist here. They voted in favour of three of the four options offered in indicative votes, and did not oppose the fourth. Whereas a signficant number of customs union supporters voted against/failed to support every other option offered.

It's the process that's at fault here - it penalises compomise- and consensus-seeking behaviour. But the process reflects a dominant political culture that similarly penalises such behaviour. The SNP are probably doing more than Some Parties I Could Mention, Jeremy, to resist that culture, and seek to change it.

prawnsambo · 02-04-2019 09:19AM

L1011 wrote: »

Some products will have to go air freight when they previously could be landbridged. This will increase the cost - and possibly displace some existing airfreighted non perishable products as there is finite capacity there also. Ryanair don't offer a cargo service which reduces the amount of belly cargo capacity in to Ireland suite significantly

We've known about this since the off and have made more preparations for it than the UK has for their vastly worse situation - there's also been no public laughing stock moments like Raab's Dover-Calais or Grayling's not-a-ferry-compang luckily

I'm not sure there's that big a difference between the landbridge and ferries from France. Minimum time on the landbridge would be about ten hours and longer if using conventional ferries which take about 8 hours to cross to Liverpool and 3 hours to Holyhead on fast ferries. And that doesn't include waiting times. Ferries from France take between 14 and 17 hours.

First Up · 02-04-2019 09:23AM

blackwhite wrote:

The Landbridge is going to come under significant pressure, but if the delays at Holyhead (in particular) or at Dover become too much, all of the major ferry operators on the Irish Sea have vessels capable of switching from Dublin-Holyhead or Dublin-Liverpool to French routes instead.

Every transport operator, importer and exporter has been working on this for two years+.

Its not a coincidence that we have new ferries, new continental ferry routes and expanded port facilities. Supply chains have been adjusted to by-pass UK distributors.

Traffic to, from and through the UK will be slowed but the alternatives are being well developed. There will be delays and added costs but we will not be strangled - or held hostage.

ArmaniJeanss · 02-04-2019 09:24AM

Leroy42 wrote: »

As these were indicative votes, I really don't understand the position of the likes of the SNP in abstaining from some of them. Listening to 5Live this am, the SNP guy was saying that they abstained because the CU vote didn't deal with FoM.

Well, fair enough, but getting that passed would have signaled that the HoC wanted something other than a No Deal. TM will come back today and claim that since there is no alternative agreed, then it must be her deal or No Deal.

Surely they should have voted for any of them, and all of them, that moved the HoC position closer to where they want it to be.

They all, remainers and brexiteers, seemed to be only ever to vote for the 'perfect' solution.

Their entire system based on FPTP doesn't do that sort of compromise. The idea that there might be a second-choice partially acceptable solution that you could vote for is like an alien concept to large swathes of them.
Even those of us here who admire Letwin's doggedness can see the method he uses his flawed - it seems a perfect situation for some kind of ARV, STV ballot but that never gets raised as a possibility.

robinph · 02-04-2019 09:27AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure there's that big a difference between the landbridge and ferries from France. Minimum time on the landbridge would be about ten hours and longer if using conventional ferries which take about 8 hours to cross to Liverpool and 3 hours to Holyhead on fast ferries. And that doesn't include waiting times. Ferries from France take between 14 and 17 hours.

It's a massive difference in capacity though, even if the time is about the same. The bottlenecks at Dover and Holyhead are far easier to deal with on a few ferries doing multiple trips a day than the same ferries doing 1 and a half trips a day direct between Ireland and France.

blackwhite · 02-04-2019 09:34AM

prawnsambo wrote: »

I'm not sure there's that big a difference between the landbridge and ferries from France. Minimum time on the landbridge would be about ten hours and longer if using conventional ferries which take about 8 hours to cross to Liverpool and 3 hours to Holyhead on fast ferries. And that doesn't include waiting times. Ferries from France take between 14 and 17 hours.

Holyhead crossing on cruise ferry is 3.5-4 hours.

The fast ferries (currently only Irish Ferries running one) don't take freight.

Enzokk · 02-04-2019 09:34AM

Brexit will never end for the UK. They are looking at a long negotiation if they pass the WA that will most likely mean the backstop is activated and NI and the DUP becomes a wildcard. If they go for no-deal things doesn't get easier, we are back at square one and there is the chaos that comes with it.

https://twitter.com/JamesERothwell/status/1112985381077692417

So Barnier confirming in no-deal the price to start negotiations is to guarantee the backstop, pay the divorce bill and guarantee the rights of citizens. The only way to stop all this is to revoke article 50 and just try and pretend the last 3 years hasn't happened. The other options all look terrible for the UK.

Leroy42 · 02-04-2019 09:35AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

The problem is that if you lend your votes to create a majority for a Customs Union Brexit, the likely outcome is that you'll get a Customs Union Brexit, with no second referendum, and Freedom of Movement still ended. The notion that if, with 11 days to go, Parliament finally agrees to something, this opens up all kind of possibilities for other kinds of Brexit, is not a very plausible one. If Parliament agrees to a form of Brexit at this stage, that's got to be the odds-on favourite for the kind of Brexit the UK will get.

I don't think you can accuse the SNP of being obstructionist here. They voted in favour of three of the four options offered in indicative votes, and did not oppose the fourth. Whereas a signficant number of customs union supporters voted against/failed to support every other option offered.

It's the process that's at fault here - it penalises compomise- and consensus-seeking behaviour. But the process reflects a dominant political culture that similarly penalises such behaviour. The SNP are probably doing more than Some Parties I Could Mention, Jeremy, to resist that culture, and seek to change it.

I agree with your overall point, and I am not having a pop at the SNP, just using them as an example.

But at the present time, TM is pushing the line that it is her deal or no deal. That she doesn't have to listen to anyone else as they have no support either (as one can see by some claiming that the WA has received the highest Ayes of all the votes).

Just as many say that the Brexit side are split, clearly the remain (or more so the no No Deal side) are split as well.

I agree what they shouldn't vote for something if they don't agree to it, but do they have a plan to get to where they want? Simply no voting for it, but no offering up a plan of how to get what they want is no better than what TM is doing.

prawnsambo · 02-04-2019 09:35AM

robinph wrote: »

It's a massive difference in capacity though, even if the time is about the same. The bottlenecks at Dover and Holyhead are far easier to deal with on a few ferries doing multiple trips a day than the same ferries doing 1 and a half trips a day direct between Ireland and France.

Yes. But I'm just talking about the time sensitive stuff that needs to travel faster. The routes from Belgium and Holland have much greater capacity for Ro-Ro and Lo-Lo.

Leroy42 · 02-04-2019 09:38AM

Enzokk wrote: »

So Barnier confirming in no-deal the price to start negotiations is to guarantee the backstop, pay the divorce bill and guarantee the rights of citizens. The only way to stop all this is to revoke article 50 and just try and pretend the last 3 years hasn't happened. The other options all look terrible for the UK.

And this is the crazy thing about the position of the likes of ERG etc. They claim that they have the £39bn as a card to play, that a no deal will mean the EU lose out and the backstop will be shelved.

But they are never asked, or at least no that I have seen, what happens when they try to get a FTA, won't the EU look for their money? Won't they look to sort out the border?

Water John · 02-04-2019 09:46AM

I think many of those voting, esp supporting one particular option did not support alt options. Each person was voting blind in not knowing which might pass the post first. Also there is a dynamic between the groups.
Voting for a CU would have just had it tacked into the PD and UK leaving on the 22nd May, for example.
Maybe Wed, if they do this process a third time, it will be down to a binary choice.

lawred2 · 02-04-2019 09:48AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

that is not even close to an option for our government

gmisk · 02-04-2019 09:49AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

Er I am sure Northern Ireland/UK would be delighted with that.....they might want a say lol

I am sure the EU would be equally delighted with the other option....you cant just throw up random borders willy nilly as far as I know...

Besides this isnt irelands mess to try and fix it is up to the UK, if the DUP werent so pig ignorant they would accepted the backstop and Northern Ireland could have been a really good place to do business with a unique position within EU and UK...but nope they torched that.

Professor Moriarty · 02-04-2019 09:52AM

Water John wrote: »

I think many of those voting, esp supporting one particular option did not support alt options. Each person was voting blind in not knowing which might pass the post first. Also there is a dynamic between the groups.
Voting for a CU would have just had it tacked into the PD and UK leaving on the 22nd May, for example.
Maybe Wed, if they do this process a third time, it will be down to a binary choice.

I think it's time to hold MPs feet to the fire. Three options with a binding result: No Deal, the WA or a long extension.

MrMusician18 · 02-04-2019 09:52AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

Yeah, that's not going to happen.

josip · 02-04-2019 10:00AM

The vast majority of freight traffic between Ireland and Europe will be between Dublin and Belgium/Netherlands closest to the major population centres.
Although Brittany-Rosslare is a shorter route by a considerable amount (c.17 hours vs c.40 hours) French dockers can be troublesome and you've still got to factor in the road time to get to Europe proper.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/post-brexit-shipping-routes-would-mean-spoiled-irish-food-1.3589873

There is no denying that for perishable goods, using the Dublin-Zeebrugge route will be measurably worse than the landbridge.

josip · 02-04-2019 10:02AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

Is that you David Cameron?

This is not a good idea and a bad use of national resources at a time when we will already be stretched.

Infini · 02-04-2019 10:05AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

It's not likely to happen. More likely is a Border Poll to just let the territory seccede back to the republic. I mean why pay for a border when you can just get rid of it.

Tell me how · 02-04-2019 10:06AM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

Regarding hard brexit (looking more and more likely now) our government has one card to play, which no one on this thread yet thought of.

They can call a referendum (we have one in May already right?) asking people to chose between a border in Northern Ireland or border on Irish Sea between us and EU.

Whatever the outcome then they can simply quote the "will of the people" when putting up the infrastructure.

No one has thought of that in the same way that no one has thought of broadcasting from Number 10 and announcing that it was all an exercise in showcasing political uncertainty and division and that given that the referendum was non-binding, the plan was never to actually leave.

Both ideas make as much sense.

Enzokk · 02-04-2019 10:07AM

The discussion about how people knew what they were voting for because the government warned them in the leaflet? I think that argument can be put to bed when this is a view from a Leaver,

https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1112980165678809088

The perception that the UK was paying for Spain to have proper road infrastructure was not going to be sorted by a leaflet or a election campaign. This kind of misinformation will take years to get rid of and may be impossible if the actors who perpetuate the myth is allowed to continue with the misinformation campaign.

And it is ridiculous to suggest that the majority of people would have known what voting to Leave meant because it was warned in a leaflet that was derided as false.

gmisk · 02-04-2019 10:12AM

Enzokk wrote: »

The discussion about how people knew what they were voting for because the government warned them in the leaflet? I think that argument can be put to bed when this is a view from a Leaver,

https://twitter.com/richardgaisford/status/1112980165678809088

The perception that the UK was paying for Spain to have proper road infrastructure was not going to be sorted by a leaflet or a election campaign. This kind of misinformation will take years to get rid of and may be impossible if the actors who perpetuate the myth is allowed to continue with the misinformation campaign.

And it is ridiculous to suggest that the majority of people would have known what voting to Leave meant because it was warned in a leaflet that was derided as false.

Look people like that you just cant help.
Lets see how she will feel if she has to pay for the healthcare system in spain.

Charles Babbage · 02-04-2019 10:14AM

looksee wrote: »

Sheesh, where can I watch this live - neither BBC nor CNN will let me, and RTE just keeps asking me download flash player, which I have already done.

edit, ok scrap that, just seen the results. Thanks

Skynews on YouTube is ideal for these days.

Hurrache · 02-04-2019 10:26AM

UK politicians aren't even trying anymore.
https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1112999501277458432

Cryptopagan · 02-04-2019 10:27AM

Peregrinus wrote: »

It's the process that's at fault here - it penalises compomise- and consensus-seeking behaviour. But the process reflects a dominant political culture that similarly penalises such behaviour. The SNP are probably doing more than Some Parties I Could Mention, Jeremy, to resist that culture, and seek to change it.

Corbyn supported 3 of the 4 options, and abstained on revoking Article 50. For all the shortcomings its leadership has displayed throughout this Brexit debacle, Labour cannot still be accused of failing to seek a way forward that involves compromise and consensus. Tory and DUP intransigence, and May’s insistence that her deal is the only legitimate vision for Brexit, are very clearly the barriers to Parliament agreeing to a version of Leave.

blanch152 · 02-04-2019 10:28AM

josip wrote: »

The vast majority of freight traffic between Ireland and Europe will be between Dublin and Belgium/Netherlands closest to the major population centres.
Although Brittany-Rosslare is a shorter route by a considerable amount (c.17 hours vs c.40 hours) French dockers can be troublesome and you've still got to factor in the road time to get to Europe proper.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/post-brexit-shipping-routes-would-mean-spoiled-irish-food-1.3589873

There is no denying that for perishable goods, using the Dublin-Zeebrugge route will be measurably worse than the landbridge.

I agree with all of that.

Supermarkets are already adjusting to the reality of a hard Brexit. The main effect on consumers will be price increases and shorter shelf-life, but the supermarkets will try and hide the effects, in the same way that biscuit and cereal packets get smaller etc. So your fruit will be packaged in smaller packages for the same price but with one day less shelf-life. You won't notice the price increase because it is the packet of grapes or bag of lettuce that is smaller, and you won't notice the shorter shelf-life because you will have eaten it quicker. You will shop more often and your total bill will go up, but that is harder to notice and even if it does affect you, you will buy less of some luxury good, or blame your growing kids.

prawnsambo · 02-04-2019 10:29AM

josip wrote: »

The vast majority of freight traffic between Ireland and Europe will be between Dublin and Belgium/Netherlands closest to the major population centres.
Although Brittany-Rosslare is a shorter route by a considerable amount (c.17 hours vs c.40 hours) French dockers can be troublesome and you've still got to factor in the road time to get to Europe proper.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/post-brexit-shipping-routes-would-mean-spoiled-irish-food-1.3589873

There is no denying that for perishable goods, using the Dublin-Zeebrugge route will be measurably worse than the landbridge.

It depends on where the goods are coming from. A lot of fruit and vegetables come from Spain; tomatoes and oranges for example. The quickest route is up the west coast of France and out via Roscoff. This is Ro-Ro traffic and there would be a time saving on the road trip vs heading to Calais. But the ferry from Santander would actually be quicker.

lawred2 · 02-04-2019 10:31AM

Hurrache wrote: »

UK politicians aren't even trying anymore.
https://twitter.com/krishgm/status/1112999501277458432

why wasn't that male MP named?

If he said what was alleged then come out and say who it was that said it. What's the secrecy about?

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Comments