Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Anteayer · 26-03-2019 05:32PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

More clarity now - runoff on Monday between the most popular options:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/26/brexit-government-may-ignore-result-of-indicative-votes-process-says-hancock-live-news

The problem is that they may then be coming to the EU with some proposal that is totally unworkable or unacceptable, based on no negotiated position and with just days to go before the end of the short extension.

I appreciate they've had serious governmental dysfunction over the last few months, but this does seem all rather a unilateral and highhanded way of doing business with anyone.

I suppose all we can do is hope parliament's proposals are somewhat less bonkers than the government's but I can almost guarantee they'll be proposing some cake-and-eat-it nonsense again on Tuesday and finding the EU isn't really interested.

woohoo!!! · 26-03-2019 05:33PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

More clarity now - runoff on Monday between the most popular options

April 1st?

We'll be getting false news all day! :P

hehe was bound to occur, it's only been nigh on 3 years of utter farce.

ancapailldorcha · 26-03-2019 05:41PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

More clarity now - runoff on Monday between the most popular options:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2019/mar/26/brexit-government-may-ignore-result-of-indicative-votes-process-says-hancock-live-news

But that rules out May's deal. The UK has to come up with a new plan by 12th April to avoid no deal.

Anteayer · 26-03-2019 05:44PM

I'm still baffled by this process.

OK, let's assume parliament has taken control and a proposal emerges at the end of this simultaneous parallel 12 vote system and run off.

Then what?

Is this a non-binding proposal to Government to do something?

Parliament can't negotiate with the EU directly without changing the government and holding them to account. What if May just refuses to play ball or the cabinet refuses to change tack and it continues to be back my deal or else...

I mean are we in a situation where there are two parallel governments - the Government and parliament acting as executive challenging the legitimacy of the Government ? Or some kind of rogue government emerging within the existing parliament that is refusing to challenge the mandate of the existing government ?

The whole thing strikes me as nuts and a refusal to deal with the reality that the Government's mandate has run out and a General Election is urgently needed.

The safety mechanism in a parliamentary democracy, much like the fuse in your fuse board at home is that in the event of a government losing its mandate, it will collapse triggering either a complete reshuffle within parliament or a general election.

That should be happening in the UK right now but isn't.

You can't just stumble on and on without any clarity as to what the direction is or who's running the country.

This is heading rapidly towards being an actual constitutional crisis where there's a mess between the executive and the legislative branches and a refusal to face reality and call a general election.

Inquitus · 26-03-2019 05:50PM

Anteayer wrote: »

I suppose all we can do is hope parliament's proposals are somewhat less bonkers than the government's but I can almost guarantee they'll be proposing some cake-and-eat-it nonsense again on Tuesday and finding the EU isn't really interested.

Unicorn and Cake options are banned from being put forwards I think, Bercow will select what is on the order paper.

Inquitus · 26-03-2019 05:52PM

Anteayer wrote: »

I'm still baffled by this process.

OK, let's assume parliament has taken control and a proposal emerges at the end of this simultaneous parallel 12 vote system and run off.

Then what?

Is this a non-binding proposal to Government to do something?

Parliament can't negotiate with the EU directly without changing the government and holding them to account. What if May just refuses to play ball or the cabinet refuses to change tack and it continues to be back my deal or else...

I mean are we in a situation where there are two parallel governments - the Government and parliament acting as executive challenging the legitimacy of the Government ? Or some kind of rogue government emerging within the existing parliament that is refusing to challenge the mandate of the existing government ?

The whole thing strikes me as nuts and a refusal to deal with the reality that the Government's mandate has run out and a General Election is urgently needed.

The safety mechanism in a parliamentary democracy, much like the fuse in your fuse board at home is that in the event of a government losing its mandate, it will collapse triggering either a complete reshuffle within parliament or a general election.

That should be happening in the UK right now but isn't.

You can't just stumble on and on without any clarity as to what the direction is or who's running the country.

From the rumblings coming out of May's office, if the option chosen by parliament contravenes the Tory Election manifesto e.g. it contains, SM or CU or SM/CU or anything else, then she will not take it to europe she will instead consider a GE.

Anteayer · 26-03-2019 05:57PM

Inquitus wrote: »

From the rumblings coming out of May's office, if the option chosen by parliament contravenes the Tory Election manifesto e.g. it contains, SM or CU or SM/CU or anything else, then she will not take it to europe she will instead consider a GE.

So in that case we're looking at Brexit being pushed out into probably 2020.

May should resign at this stage, it's getting into very dangerously screwed up territory the longer she continues to 'brass neck' it.

The big problem over there at the moment is there's been no leader emerged from the chaos. You've a weak, yet doggedly stubborn May and Corbyn seems to be so divisive within his own party that it's nearly split in two. Meanwhile the only other leaderly figures seem to be in the new independent group, yet they're not gaining sufficient traction to do anything serious other than shout from the sidelines.

I see endless people putting forward why things shouldn't be done - they either bitterly oppose the EU or they bitterly oppose Brexit. Nobody's putting forward a vision for the UK's future in a positive way either within or outside the EU. It's all about attacking opponents and negativity.

Leadership's about bringing people on board, not attacking them and I just see nobody doing that.

The UK's risking going down the plughole in a mess of negativity without any leadership at all.

briany · 26-03-2019 06:05PM

Anteayer wrote: »

So in that case we're looking at Brexit being pushed out into probably 2020.

May should resign at this stage, it's getting into very dangerously screwed up territory the longer she continues to 'brass neck' it.

As has been said, in normal times, she'd be out of the job about a year ago. But these are not normal times. I don't think there's a single MP in the Tory ranks who'd want her job as things stand today. It just goes to show how unenviable her position is that no-one else has staged a coup. No-one else in her party has any better ideas that can garner the kind of broader support needed. Boris Johnson would only widen divisions. Michael Gove would be stuttering his way through his speeches. And the less said about Jacob Rees Mogg, the better.

FrancieBrady · 26-03-2019 06:08PM

Inquitus wrote: »

From the rumblings coming out of May's office, if the option chosen by parliament contravenes the Tory Election manifesto e.g. it contains, SM or CU or SM/CU or anything else, then she will not take it to europe she will instead consider a GE.

There is the potential here for a much more serious rupture in the body politic of the UK, I think.

Inquitus · 26-03-2019 06:08PM

Anteayer wrote: »

So in that case we're looking at Brexit being pushed out into probably 2020.

Well it takes about 4 weeks (17 working Days to be precise) to call and execute a GE, so assuming we got indicative votes coming out for say Single Market + Customs Union, May would have to table a VoNC in her Government which would have to be carried, so would need at least some Tories to vote for it, then if noone can form an alternative Government in 14 days, which they can't, there is a confirmatory VoNC that starts the 4 week timer. So Thurs 9th May is the earliest date or perhaps the 16th May. In the meantime she would have to go to Europe and tell them she wants a long extension and will take part in the EU elections at the end of May, and that that extension is to allow for a GE so a different Brexit path can be charted.

Then it is also entirely possible that a GE changes nothing much, it would depend on Labour standing on a 2nd Referendum platform you'd think, and then a likely Lab / SNP coalition forming. If we get another Tory / DUP Government then we would be back to square 1 with the only change being perhaps a new PM in Gove or Johnson or whoever, if anyone, takes up the mantle. It would be much like May's ascension, a poisoned chalice likely to destroy your political career, not sure who'd want the job, lol.

Anteayer · 26-03-2019 06:08PM

From the EU's perspective this is going to come down to ... "well you're on the pot.. decide one way or the other." As UK domestic chaos is impinging on neighbours and costing businesses billions upon billions in terms of opportunity cost and having to assume the worst outcome and plan for it.

The UK can't seem to even decide to kick this far down the road and ask for a very long extension, which would be one way of at least dealing with the internal problems and allowing the EU to get on with life while Britain goes off to find itself or have a bar brawl with itself or whatever it is it needs to do.

Effectively they're holding 442 million people hostage while they have a national mental breakdown.

Enzokk · 26-03-2019 06:10PM

Spook_ie wrote: »

No WA = no backstop, only the commitment to no new border infrastructure from Ireland and UK, which isn't compatible with the EU.

From my side it looks like the UK is aware of their commitments regarding the GFA and that they will have to keep the border open between Ireland and NI. This seems evident even in the event of no-deal in that both sides are most likely talking about a deal in such a case. Yes I am aware that in the event of no-deal having a deal means it is not no-deal, but that seems to be what will happen.

As for the argument that these talks show that the backstop is not needed, well it doesn't make sense to me. All it does do is make the importance of maintaining no border between NI and Ireland even more apparent, in that it will happen even when there is no deal and the UK crashes out. The fact that it will still be maintained doesn't mean it isn't needed, it just reinforces that it is the most important item for the two sides (EU and UK) in that this is the item that will be carried over from the talks when all other fall away.

Laois_Man · 26-03-2019 06:15PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Well it takes about 4 weeks (17 working Days to be precise) to call and execute a GE,

They can run a General Election on the same day and in tandem with their European elections

How ironic!

RobertKK · 26-03-2019 06:17PM

I think for the sake of the EU we need the UK out of the union as soon as possible. The UK is so divided, there are a section of people who are so deluded, that I think a reality check is needed to cure the disease.
The only problem is other countries will also be affected by this. But I think it is worse for the EU if the UK now remains in the EU. We need them out so everyone can then move on.
The UK would likely come running back fast to make a deal if they leave on no deal. Which I see now is also the opinion of some in the Irish government - w would not stay in a no deal scenario for very long as the UK would look to rescue itself from the self inflicted disaster.
I have no idea where any of this is going, I don't think anyone really does.

Xavier Bettel, the PM of Luxembourg and is known as Mr Nice Guy.
Philippe Lamberts MEP: “When you listen to Xavier Bettel when he exited the Council you feel that if even (he) is upset by Theresa May, she must be totally devoid of the basic human skills that you need to be a political leader. And that is scary,”

Inquitus · 26-03-2019 06:18PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

They can run a General Election on the same day and in tandem with their European elections

How ironic!

That would probably be a good thing as it would guarantee a higher turnout for the EU elections and go some way to mitigate, perhaps, the sort of scoundrels elected, likely be bad for Nigel's New Brexit Party for instance, and good for any remainers standing.

Anteayer · 26-03-2019 06:18PM

i'd agree that they have now realised just how serious the GFA is, but the issue was the ignored that before and during the first year and a bit of Brexit. It's only a recent position. I think it's almost been like some of the Tories have only recently learnt about how messed up Northern Ireland is and how fragile and complex that whole process was.

Also I think they're starting to realise that there are serious international ramifications to screwing up the GFA, particularly from Irish American politicians who'd probably hold their feet to the fire on it in any trade negotiations with the US and those politicians in the US are across the spectrum of politics from left to right and Democrat to hat wearing Trumpeteers.

The impression I got was some people in the UK were a bit shocked at the extent of Irish soft power in the US and also American interest in Northern Ireland's peace process. Patrick's Day this year was somewhat of an eye opener.

I also got the sense that they were somewhat shocked by the extent of Ireland's connections within the EU, particularly FG within the EPP which is hugely influential in a way Tories absolutely are not.

RobertKK · 26-03-2019 06:23PM

Anteayer wrote: »

i'd agree that they have now realised just how serious the GFA is, but the issue was the ignored that before and during the first year and a bit of Brexit. It's only a recent position. I think it's almost been like some of the Tories have only recently learnt about how messed up Northern Ireland is and how fragile and complex that whole process was.

Also I think they're starting to realise that there are serious international ramifications to screwing up the GFA, particularly from Irish American politicians who'd probably hold their feet to the fire on it in any trade negotiations with the US and those politicians in the US are across the spectrum of politics from left to right and Democrat to hat wearing Trumpeteers.

The impression I got was some people in the UK were a bit shocked at the extent of Irish soft power in the US and also American interest in Northern Ireland's peace process. Patrick's Day this year was somewhat of an eye opener.

Totally.
I watched a review of the papers one morning last week on Sky News and it was reported in the British newspaper - forget which one, but the British journalist reported that it was clear in the US that the cross party Irish American lobby is the only group to rival the Israeli lobby in Washington.

Professor Moriarty · 26-03-2019 06:23PM

Anteayer wrote: »

i'd agree that they have now realised just how serious the GFA is, but the issue was the ignored that before and during the first year and a bit of Brexit. It's only a recent position. I think it's almost been like some of the Tories have only recently learnt about how messed up Northern Ireland is and how fragile and complex that whole process was.

Also I think they're starting to realise that there are serious international ramifications to screwing up the GFA, particularly from Irish American politicians who'd probably hold their feet to the fire on it in any trade negotiations with the US and those politicians in the US are across the spectrum of politics from left to right and Democrat to hat wearing Trumpeteers.

The impression I got was some people in the UK were a bit shocked at the extent of Irish soft power in the US and also American interest in Northern Ireland's peace process. Patrick's Day this year was somewhat of an eye opener.

I also got the sense that they were somewhat shocked by the extent of Ireland's connections within the EU, particularly FG within the EPP which is hugely influential in a way Tories absolutely are not.

The return of direct rule is being mooted, by May and a senior civil servant, in the event of a hard border.

Sardonicat · 26-03-2019 06:27PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Anteayer wrote: »

i'd agree that they have now realised just how serious the GFA is, but the issue was the ignored that before and during the first year and a bit of Brexit. It's only a recent position. I think it's almost been like some of the Tories have only recently learnt about how messed up Northern Ireland is and how fragile and complex that whole process was.

Also I think they're starting to realise that there are serious international ramifications to screwing up the GFA, particularly from Irish American politicians who'd probably hold their feet to the fire on it in any trade negotiations with the US and those politicians in the US are across the spectrum of politics from left to right and Democrat to hat wearing Trumpeteers.

The impression I got was some people in the UK were a bit shocked at the extent of Irish soft power in the US and also American interest in Northern Ireland's peace process. Patrick's Day this year was somewhat of an eye opener.

I also got the sense that they were somewhat shocked by the extent of Ireland's connections within the EU, particularly FG within the EPP which is hugely influential in a way Tories absolutely are not.

The return of direct rule is being mooted, by May and a senior civil servant, in the event of a hard border.

That's basically a red rag to a bull!

Spanish Eyes · 26-03-2019 06:34PM

Just musing here, so forgive my lack of forensic analysis...

If a GE is called, would it be possible for GC to resign and a new Labour Leader installed like Keir Starmer for example before the vote? Labour would romp home with someone with brains and leadership qualities at the helm I think. At the moment the LP is unelectable with JC at the helm, and everyone knows it.

Hmmm.

BluePlanet · 26-03-2019 06:36PM

Q: Does anybody visit other forums and debate Brexit issues, where actual Brexiteers are in the majority?

Irish Praetorian · 26-03-2019 06:39PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Q: Does anybody visit other forums and debate Brexit issues, where actual Brexiteers are in the majority?

I like to peruse the comment sections of more pro Brexit papers, as well as the twitter accounts of pro Brexit journalists and figures, mostly as a means of trying to understand their point of view; but in terms of forums, no, partly because I cant think of a British equivalent to boards and because those forums I go to where politics are a sideshow tend to be fairly Remainish.

26-03-2019 06:44PM

Inquitus wrote: »

The official taking control document:

https://twitter.com/hilarybennmp/status/1110565759674212352

18 March!! the date on the heading is incorrect, is the rest of the text correct?

L1011 · 26-03-2019 06:54PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Just musing here, so forgive my lack of forensic analysis...

If a GE is called, would it be possible for GC to resign and a new Labour Leader installed like Keir Starmer for example before the vote? Labour would romp home with someone with brains and leadership qualities at the helm I think. At the moment the LP is unelectable with JC at the helm, and everyone knows it.

Hmmm.

He wouldn't go, and theres limited chance of throwing him out

Spanish Eyes · 26-03-2019 06:59PM

L1011 wrote: »

He wouldn't go, and theres limited chance of throwing him out

That's a terrible pity really. And Labour know it too. For shame that a useless person like him is wrecking Labour support.

He has not been Leader of the Opposition at all IMV. But anyway, such is life. Politics in the UK is very weird at the moment no matter what side you are on.

Inquitus · 26-03-2019 06:59PM

L1011 wrote: »

He wouldn't go, and theres limited chance of throwing him out

Aye unless Momentum decides to get rid of him he's there for good, they are 80% remain though, so may well be able to apply pressure for Labour to stand on a 2nd Referendum platform though.

Spook_ie · 26-03-2019 07:00PM

Enzokk wrote: »

From my side it looks like the UK is aware of their commitments regarding the GFA and that they will have to keep the border open between Ireland and NI. This seems evident even in the event of no-deal in that both sides are most likely talking about a deal in such a case. Yes I am aware that in the event of no-deal having a deal means it is not no-deal, but that seems to be what will happen.

As for the argument that these talks show that the backstop is not needed, well it doesn't make sense to me. All it does do is make the importance of maintaining no border between NI and Ireland even more apparent, in that it will happen even when there is no deal and the UK crashes out. The fact that it will still be maintained doesn't mean it isn't needed, it just reinforces that it is the most important item for the two sides (EU and UK) in that this is the item that will be carried over from the talks when all other fall away.

But nothing in what you say is compatible with EU requirements, no deal = crash out = border controls for the EU, NI will still be part of the UK and subject to whatever EU borders the EU put up and if there's no deal then I don't see how the EU can put a prerequisite of a part of a sovereign state being subject to outside ( EU ) controls before trade talks.

Eod100 · 26-03-2019 07:02PM

UK government has responded to revoke petition here. Answer as expected really. https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/241584

Inquitus · 26-03-2019 07:05PM

This guys Syrup is a sight to behold, that and he's come round to voting for the WA:

https://twitter.com/Mike_Fabricant/status/1110577463929782272

RobMc59 · 26-03-2019 07:08PM

BluePlanet wrote: »

Q: Does anybody visit other forums and debate Brexit issues, where actual Brexiteers are in the majority?

I don't but living in Britain do know many people who want to leave,they seem to fall into two categories-either uninformed jingoistic or the worst type-the appears and acts totally rational but "just wants to get on with it"to stop "the unelected eurocrats"-not aware of the eye-popping amount of unelected civil servants in the UK.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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