Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Anteayer · 26-03-2019 02:59PM

Irish ports being under UK jurisdiction had nothing to do with trade. It was about military requirements in very unstable times in Western Europe.

The comparison doesn't stack up at all.

They would be much better off looking at creating a workable present day and future arrangement rather than endlessly clutching at irrelevant examples from history, revising Irish history and trying to fame everything in military language ...

At least the EU has always been a positive thinking, forward looking organisation that tries to create a new Europe, learning history not trying to repeat it and reframe it to suit a nationalist narrative.

Eod100 · 26-03-2019 02:59PM

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

It seems clear to me from listening to JRM's 20 minute podcast released today that yesterday at Chequers was a lightbulb moment for him where he finally realised that No Deal Brexit won't ever happen (he says the PM is against it, the cabinet are against it and the HoC are against it) and given the direction of travel with the actual delay to April 12th and potential for a much longer delay he has now concluded that TM's deal is better than any other viable option and that whilst TM's deal is hugely flawed it will deliver the central objective of the UK exiting the EU and no longer being subject to the ECJ etc.

He actually goes as far as to say that he has "recently" realised that leaving the EU may be as much of a process as joining it i.e. it's not a single light bulb type event but you start with what you can achieve in negotiations and then over a number of years you diverge further and further apart until you reach the point you are happy to say Brexit is complete.

It sounds very much like he's climbing down his ladder and waving goodbye to his DUP buddies and concerns over the Union as it applies to NI along the way as they no longer provide him with political cover.

Is JRM the first and most important ERG/Hard Brexit domino to fall? Could this gesture by him be the grand exercise in compromise which would enable him to secure a majority of Tory MP's and replace TM once the WA is finally passed?

On the whole no deal, think some in ERG were saying in event of no deal, EU would try to prevent their being a hard-border in North so they questioned need for backstop. But maybe May has decided with votes in HOC that no deal is not seen as a viable option and won't gain any concessions from the EU, so JRM has add to adjust his position.

Maybe DUP are sticking to the idea that there can still be a no deal Brexit with no hard border.

Dubh Geannain · 26-03-2019 03:01PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Like several political parties in NI, the DUP are almost exclusively a reactionary party.

They wait for someone to come up with a suggestion and 9 times out of 10 say No to it. It will be the same for the next few weeks, year or years when it comes to Brexit.

Hardly :rolleyes:

The DUP are unique. They want to maintain the status quo as much as possible and ideally roll back the clock to before the GFA (even further if they could).

The several other parties know politics are about compromise.

Professor Moriarty · 26-03-2019 03:01PM

awec wrote: »

DUP are hitting the panic button after last night's vote.

They're right to panic. The future is very bleak for them. They've dropped by 20% and falling in the polls. Their vision of Canada Plus or a No Deal is gone and all the while their blinkered reactionary policy has cost NI thousands of jobs and threatened tens of thousands - leaving the UUP to hoover up their voters. There will be an election soon and they will become an irrelevancy. If the Tories regain power, they will remember how the DUP persistently shafted them. If Labour get in, at best, they will be ignored. They deserve everything they're going to get.

Quin_Dub · 26-03-2019 03:01PM

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The DUP are about to achieve something massive. To demonstrate to all their faithful what most of us knew, that the rest of the UK really don't care about northern Ireland Unionists place in the Union, ahead of their own selfish interests.

But, Is that a good thing or a bad thing for Northern Ireland?

Hard to know how the average Unionist voter might react to that realisation. Or Nationalist voters for that matter..

Eod100 · 26-03-2019 03:06PM

Talk of pensioners rioting. I do worry about there being a risk of violence if the 'right' Brexit isn't seen to be delivered. And as other posters pointed out the language used has been pretty dangerous. But the mention of Blueshirts makes it unintentionally amusing..

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110526375293865984

FrancieBrady · 26-03-2019 03:07PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

But, Is that a good thing or a bad thing for Northern Ireland?

Hard to know how the average Unionist voter might react to that realisation. Or Nationalist voters for that matter..

The moderate Unionist will not fail to take stock of what it means.

TBH if the DUP dig their heels in I can see a massive loss of support for them.
I think most nationalists know the importance of northern Ireland to the UK in general. They have digested and dealt with the implications of what the GFA actually was. Unionism never really faced up to it, perhaps now it will and begin to engage with the future relationships. That can only be a good thing.

blanch152 · 26-03-2019 03:10PM

Quin_Dub wrote: »

For what though?

The EU have been absolutely clear that any extension has to be framed around a coherent plan that has majority support.

Have the DUP offered up a single suggestion other than saying NO ?

To be fair to the DUP, their number one priority is the maintenance of the union with England, Scotland and Wales. They might prefer that in a hard Brexit, where their perception of the threat from the South recedes, but a soft Brexit with the union intact is better than a hard Brexit with a NI-only Brexit. Ultimately, if you cannot maintain the union in a Brexit context, they would revoke. In that way, there are important distinctions between them and the ERG.

54and56 · 26-03-2019 03:15PM

BobbyBobberson wrote: »

Daniel Hannan (I know I know) made a similar point before and pointed to Ireland leaving the UK as an example. He made reference to ports being under UK jurisdiction initially and says UK leaving EU should be similar.

For your second point, one journo tweeted earlier that JRM says he is about the 35-40th hardest Brexiteer and many would not fold.

Possibly but he is the Chairman of the ERG and by far their most publicly influential. I've no doubt that the true blue Mark Gino Francois MP and others of similar DUP type "Never Never Never" calibre would rather go down fighting than take a pragmatic/strategic path but if JRM goes on to say he will vote for the WA in MV3 I think we'll quickly see many others fall in behind including many Labour MP's from leave constituencies who don't want to be on the wrong side of the final decision but who up to this didn't want to risk backing TM's deal when it had such little chance of success.

JRM getting behind the WA (even reluctantly) could be the trigger for the WA being passed which will give him enormous political capital. He'll be credited with showing true leadership, putting the country (and conveniently his party) ahead of his own strongly held views and the sort of person who should take over negotiations with the EU on the future relationship etc etc.

This move by him will also completely sideline Boris and any others with PM ambitions. It'll be presented that when the moment for compromise and leadership was at it's most critical he acted whilst all others prevaricated. They'll be begging him to become PM and despite not wanting it (cough cough) how can he possibly refuse to serve his country in a time of such crisis blah blah blah!!

Anteayer · 26-03-2019 03:15PM

blanch152 wrote: »

To be fair to the DUP, their number one priority is the maintenance of the union with England, Scotland and Wales. They might prefer that in a hard Brexit, where their perception of the threat from the South recedes, but a soft Brexit with the union intact is better than a hard Brexit with a NI-only Brexit. Ultimately, if you cannot maintain the union in a Brexit context, they would revoke. In that way, there are important distinctions between them and the ERG.

They have fundamentally undermined the union with what they've done and have hastened the likelihood of Scottish independence and Irish reunification.

Also since when has a hard brexit been a good idea for the union?

It looks to me that they got lost in English nationalism, not realising that it sees them as entirely alien to it, but is quite happy to use Ulster unionists to achieve a narrowly right wing and very much English political agenda.

I think the DUP has been played like a fiddle in this because they're reactionary and easy to manipulate if you know what buttons to push.

FrancieBrady · 26-03-2019 03:18PM

blanch152 wrote: »

To be fair to the DUP, their number one priority is the maintenance of the union with England, Scotland and Wales. They might prefer that in a hard Brexit, where their perception of the threat from the South recedes, but a soft Brexit with the union intact is better than a hard Brexit with a NI-only Brexit. Ultimately, if you cannot maintain the union in a Brexit context, they would revoke. In that way, there are important distinctions between them and the ERG.

They have missed what is obvious to anyone, that 'the threat' is from within the Union and they have massively stoked that fire.

Shelga · 26-03-2019 03:21PM

Has JRM said he’ll definitely vote for it or is he still merely ‘considering’ doing so?

He is a hypocrite of the highest order, having said this deal is worse than remaining. Surely now is when the hardcore Leavers turn against him and it all falls apart, there are so many warring factions of Leave now.

BonnieSituation · 26-03-2019 03:21PM

Eod100 wrote: »

Talk of pensioners rioting. I do worry about there being a risk of violence if the 'right' Brexit isn't seen to be delivered. And as other posters pointed out the language used has been pretty dangerous. But the mention of Blueshirts makes it unintentionally amusing..

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1110526375293865984

The Blue Shirts?

Jesus!

blanch152 · 26-03-2019 03:23PM

Anteayer wrote: »

They have fundamentally undermined the union with they they've done and have hastened the likelihood of Scottish independence and Irish reunification.

Also since when has a hard brexit been a good idea for the union?

It looks to me that they got lost in English nationalism, not realising that it sees them as entirely alien to it, but is quite happy to use Ulster unionists to achieve a narrowly right wing and very much English political agenda.

I think the DUP has been played like a fiddle in this because they're reactionary and easy to manipulate if you know what buttons to push.

I never said that a hard Brexit was a good idea for the union, I said that in a hard Brexit, the DUP perceive that the threat from the South recedes.

All I am doing is examining their motivation to understand what they might be prepared to accept. Their motivations are not the same as the ERG's and that could introduce differences in outcome.

Peregrinus · 26-03-2019 03:25PM

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

It seems clear to me from listening to JRM's 20 minute podcast released today that yesterday at Chequers was a lightbulb moment for him where he finally realised that No Deal Brexit won't ever happen (he says the PM is against it, the cabinet are against it and the HoC are against it) and given the direction of travel with the actual delay to April 12th and potential for a much longer delay he has now concluded that TM's deal is better than any other viable option and that whilst TM's deal is hugely flawed it will deliver the central objective of the UK exiting the EU and no longer being subject to the ECJ etc.

He actually goes as far as to say that he has "recently" realised that leaving the EU may be as much of a process as joining it i.e. it's not a single light bulb type event but you start with what you can achieve in negotiations and then over a number of years you diverge further and further apart until you reach the point you are happy to say Brexit is complete.

It sounds very much like he's climbing down his ladder and waving goodbye to his DUP buddies and concerns over the Union as it applies to NI along the way as they no longer provide him with political cover.

Is JRM the first and most important ERG/Hard Brexit domino to fall? Could this gesture by him be the grand exercise in compromise which would enable him to secure a majority of Tory MP's and replace TM once the WA is finally passed?

Which has led to a storm of tweets denouncing him from the likes of Leave.EU.

"The Revolution devours its children", as Danton famously observed (shortly before being sentenced to the guillotine himself).

Professor Moriarty · 26-03-2019 03:25PM

Hmmm. A new poll should give Remainers/Second Referendum Supporters a serious boost. Not so much for Leave Supporters:

Given three choices, how would you vote?

Remain: 55%
Leave with May's deal: 17%
No Deal: 27%

Eod100 · 26-03-2019 03:26PM

So looking like no Brexit is likelier over the short-term and possible long-term than no deal Brexit.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1110542249715253249

Headshot · 26-03-2019 03:26PM

Mod: Quit the one-liner posts please.

Headshot · 26-03-2019 03:27PM

Eod100 wrote: »

So looking like no Brexit is likelier over the short-term and possible long-term than no deal Brexit.

https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1110542249715253249

The ERG wont like this one bit and the fake support that was for the DUP has eroded

Laois_Man · 26-03-2019 03:34PM

Je_suis_Jean wrote: »

Possibly but he is the Chairman of the ERG and by far their most publicly influential. I've no doubt that the true blue Mark Gino Francois MP and others of similar DUP type "Never Never Never" calibre would rather go down fighting than take a pragmatic/strategic path but if JRM goes on to say he will vote for the WA in MV3 I think we'll quickly see many others fall in behind including many Labour MP's from leave constituencies who don't want to be on the wrong side of the final decision but who up to this didn't want to risk backing TM's deal when it had such little chance of success.

JRM getting behind the WA (even reluctantly) could be the trigger for the WA being passed which will give him enormous political capital. He'll be credited with showing true leadership, putting the country (and conveniently his party) ahead of his own strongly held views and the sort of person who should take over negotiations with the EU on the future relationship etc etc.

This move by him will also completely sideline Boris and any others with PM ambitions. It'll be presented that when the moment for compromise and leadership was at it's most critical he acted whilst all others prevaricated. They'll be begging him to become PM and despite not wanting it (cough cough) how can he possibly refuse to serve his country in a time of such crisis blah blah blah!!

There is absolutely zero chance of Jacob Rees Moggs being the next PM...no need for the cough cough - he really doesn't want the job. Don't you know he's a very busy chappy with his businesses and is very happy to stay in his comfort zone where all the difficult decisions are made by others!

ancapailldorcha · 26-03-2019 03:35PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Hmmm. A new poll should give Remainers/Second Referendum Supporters a serious boost. Not so much for Leave Supporters:

Given three choices, how would you vote?

Remain: 55%
Leave with May's deal: 17%
No Deal: 27%

It's possible that the referendum omission might veto a three-way referendum. Vote Leave managed to successfully change the question from Yes/No to staying in to Remain/Leave. According to Tim Shipman's book, that was worth 4%.

Shelga · 26-03-2019 03:36PM

From the end of Sammy Wilson's revolting Telegraph article:

"This week's indicative votes are unlikely to present a negotiable way forward so let us not allow ourselves to be worn down by the relentless efforts of those who despise the 17.4 million people who voted to throw off the shackles of Brussels."

He completely ignores the fact that NI voted Remain. He says that Remainers despise Brexiters- what absolute drivel, and dangerous drivel at that.

Must not forget to cancel my free month's trial Telegraph subscription! Why anyone would actually pay money to read hateful, divisive lies is beyond me. And yes, I hate myself a bit for even signing up for the free trial...

Professor Moriarty · 26-03-2019 03:39PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

It's possible that the referendum omission might veto a three-way referendum. Vote Leave managed to successfully change the question from Yes/No to staying in to Remain/Leave. According to Tim Shipman's book, that was worth 4%.

They don't have a Referendum Commission (unlike Ireland) which was part of the problem. If Parliament is sovereign, then surely it will decide the terms of any future referendum?

Peregrinus · 26-03-2019 03:40PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

How would that work? I thought there were only two options. Vote to accept WA and thus delay until 22 May to allow for legislation to proceed, or crash out by 12 April.

Have they (EU) also offered a longer extension based on running in the EU elections?

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They have offered it on the basis that the UK make proposals that can realistically resolve the issue, have they not?

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

They're assuming that the EU would be prepared to talk to a new PM, and yes, if the UK declares on April 11th that it will participate in the European elections, that buys more time.

If the UK Parliament doesn't approve the negotiated deal (WA, Pol Dec, the lot) by 29 March, then it has until 12 April to seek and obtain a further extension. If there's no further extension granted by then, no-deal crash-out on 12 April.

Much UK commentary seems to assume that if the UK seeks a longer extension before 12 April they'll get it, but this isn't necessarily a given. The minimal requirements for a longer extension are likely to be:

- UK participates in the EU elections

- UK presents credible case that a longer extension will not just be treated as an opportunity for more faffing around, but will be used to take steps that are likely to break the deadlock, and produce a better outcome (for the EU) than no-deal.

If those conditions are satisfied then a request for a longer extension will be considered. But whether it will be favourably considered, whether the longer extension will actually be granted, will depend on what plan the UK puts forward, how credible the plan is, how serious the EU thinks the UK is about pursuing it, etc, etc. (And, boys and girls, the EU may think the UK is less likely to stick to any plan it presents if, at the time it presents it, T May is still the Prime Minister. She has pretty comprehensively torched her own credibility with the EU as a reliable interlocutor.)

Some member states (e.g. Ireland, the Netherlands) will favour granting an extension that offers even a modest chance of avoiding (as opposed to merely deferring) no-deal, but others (e.g. France) are fed up with the time and energy the Tory party's self-inflicted psychodrama is draining from the EU, and would not favour granting a long extension unless they are satisfied that it's backed by a really solid plan that is pretty likely to deliver the goods.

By law, any one member state could veto a longer extension, but the EU way is not to have things decided by veto if it can be avoided, and for the members states instead to work hard to develop a consensus position (as we saw in action at the European Council last week). So France, etc, may soften a bit, in order to support a consensus decision. But they may not soften very much.

ancapailldorcha · 26-03-2019 03:41PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

They don't have a Referendum Commission (unlike Ireland) which was part of the problem. If Parliament is sovereign, then surely it will decide the terms of any future referendum?

My mistake. We have an electoral commission.

Professor Moriarty · 26-03-2019 03:52PM

Apparently, last night after a meeting, one ERG member said they were "split 50/50" on No Deal versus May's Deal to which another replied "I think it's the other way around. So, the DUP now at odds with the ERG over a 12 month extension and half of the ERG is now at odds with the other half. This is great.

Inquitus · 26-03-2019 03:54PM

Shelga wrote: »

From the end of Sammy Wilson's revolting Telegraph article:

"This week's indicative votes are unlikely to present a negotiable way forward so let us not allow ourselves to be worn down by the relentless efforts of those who despise the 17.4 million people who voted to throw off the shackles of Brussels."

He completely ignores the fact that NI voted Remain. He says that Remainers despise Brexiters- what absolute drivel, and dangerous drivel at that.

Must not forget to cancel my free month's trial Telegraph subscription! Why anyone would actually pay money to read hateful, divisive lies is beyond me. And yes, I hate myself a bit for even signing up for the free trial...

Can you sign up and immediately cancel, thereby removing the risk of accidentally enriching that rag of a paper?

Enzokk · 26-03-2019 03:56PM

Spook_ie wrote: »

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-and-dublin-in-intense-talks-on-no-deal-plan-for-irish-border-uk-brexit/

Interesting paragraph buried in the article

Well the problem with this is from the UK side and not the EU. The Brexiteers fought against leaving NI inside the EU basically and they were threatening to diverge from EU rules but take NI with them. So it doesn't take away the need for the backstop, it just means the backstop is the solution even if there is no-deal Brexit. This is because of the GFA. This was known before the referendum and never discussed.

The problem is the power the DUP has in the UK right now. Funny as ever that Sammy Wilson is quick to remind everyone that Brexit is a whole 4 nation affair but other stuff, like gay rights is not. He is British when it suits him and it depends on social issues.

Inquitus · 26-03-2019 04:04PM

Shelga wrote: »

Deleted post.

Indeed, would expect nothing less sly from them. If it was easy to cancel I would sign up for a month so I can get their fully biased Brexit reporting for the next while:

To cancel your subscription please call us free on 0800 316 3656 (UK only). Lines are open 9am-5pm Mon-Fri, 9am-1pm Sat. Closed Sundays & Bank Holidays. Your cancellation will take effect at the next payment date.

ancapailldorcha · 26-03-2019 04:06PM

Mod: Use the proper names of publications please. Post deleted.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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