Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Hurrache · 20-03-2019 04:43PM

Tusk rumoured to say that May sent her letter to them too late and therefore don't have time to make a decision on her request at tomorrow's summit, that and the fact they'd like to see if she can get some sort of approval behind her in parliament.

Irishmale0399 · 20-03-2019 04:46PM

The HoC still hasnt understood that the EU have to agree to any change to the WA and that up to now they have said there will be no change.

Lets hope someone in Brussels comes out with common sense today and says....

Option 1.
Exit with the deal
Option 2.
Hard Brexit
Option 3.
Revoke A50

branie2 · 20-03-2019 04:47PM

I'd go for option 3

Eod100 · 20-03-2019 04:47PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Tusk rumoured to say that May sent her letter to them too late and therefore don't have time to make a decision on her request at tomorrow's summit, that and the fact they'd like to see if she can get some sort of approval behind her in parliament.

Does May need approval for any extension from HOC? If so why not do this before going to EU? Whole thing is a mess at this stage

who the fug · 20-03-2019 04:52PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

latest poll shows clear majority to remain

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-deal-opinion-poll-theresa-may-a8831241.html

Just to remind everyone that there was a clear majority to remain on the eve of the vote

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-remain-vote-leave-live-latest-who-will-win-results-populus-a7097261.html

think the most likely option is we will crash out on the 29th

Infini · 20-03-2019 04:55PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Tusk rumoured to say that May sent her letter to them too late and therefore don't have time to make a decision on her request at tomorrow's summit, that and the fact they'd like to see if she can get some sort of approval behind her in parliament.

Is essentially a viable approach as well, simply refuse to agree but not outright reject either and throw the fire under their seats so to speak.

I still feel that this is going to come down to a choice between rescind A50 or crash out with A50 being the final choice though. Simple truth is May is dead to rights politically and the EU want's a choice from the HoC: Stay or Leave. Cancelling Brexit and going to a GE or 2nd referendum is a viable approach but the EU I dont think can afford any more stalling, they cant allow the British policial incompetence to threaten the EU institutions hence why France would likely shoot down any extentions and have no problem doing so.

Enzokk · 20-03-2019 05:00PM

As others has posted it does seem that the talk from the EU is that her letter has come to late to make a decision at the EU Summit tomorrow. It also seems that they will not grant an extension unless they know what it is for and if she will actually need to use the extension to get the legislation passed on her deal.

So the EU will not grant the extension unless her deal passes and she will not get a vote on her deal from the Speaker. So, it is going to be interesting few days coming up.

https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1108396484435808256

prawnsambo · 20-03-2019 05:05PM

who the fug wrote: »

Just to remind everyone that there was a clear majority to remain on the eve of the vote

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-poll-brexit-remain-vote-leave-live-latest-who-will-win-results-populus-a7097261.html

That was an online poll which are notoriously inaccurate. Later in the article, it says that leave had been leading until pretty shortly before the referendum and the other polls quoted were very close although marginally in favour of remain. It's always best to look at polls as indication of trends rather than a snapshot of opinion. And the trend was towards leave in the final days.

Sardonicat · 20-03-2019 05:07PM

Where's Donald Tusk got to?

EKRIUQ · 20-03-2019 05:09PM

I think everyone knows that May just wants to keep kicking the can down the road for another couple of months, in 3 months time we will probably be back to the final days before another decision has to be made.

If the 3 month extension is granted everyone in parliament will have a huge sigh of relief and not worry about Brexit until 2 months 3 weeks when May will try to push through her vote again.

This is my favourite image of the day

Hurrache · 20-03-2019 05:10PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

Where's Donald Tusk got to?

He was on a call to May he said, hence the delay.

Extension is conditional on a vote on the agreement. HTF is that going to happen and for May to claim it will.

Edit: sounds like the extension is based on the positive vote. If not, then no extension.

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 05:11PM

Positive response from tusk.

Irishmale0399 · 20-03-2019 05:11PM

Extension on the condition for a HoC aggreement on the WA.....

Sardonicat · 20-03-2019 05:12PM

How can their be a positive vote when Bercow has ruled out a vote without substantial changes?

VinLieger · 20-03-2019 05:13PM

So they wont extend without approval of WA through HOC but that's not allowed unless its changed somehow which im pretty sure it cannot be changed?

Irishmale0399 · 20-03-2019 05:13PM

Sardonicat wrote: »

How can their be a positive vote when Bercow has ruled out a vote without substantial changes?

Now we will see how they make it up as they go along.....:rolleyes::rolleyes:

JeffKenna · 20-03-2019 05:13PM

This is beyond crazy!!

prawnsambo · 20-03-2019 05:14PM

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Extension on the condition for a HoC aggreement on the WA.....

Very swift return of serve. HoC is running back from the net and hoping to get to the ball before it gets to the byline.

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 05:14PM

Adding a people’s vote amendment would be change enough I would think, it’s a possibility at least surely.

Inquitus · 20-03-2019 05:14PM

JeffKenna wrote: »

This is beyond crazy!!

What's happening? Stuck in work, can't watch the commons.

Hurrache · 20-03-2019 05:15PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Positive response from tusk.

Some seeing it as Tusk resigned to a no deal.

lawred2 · 20-03-2019 05:15PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Positive response from tusk.

any link?

Irishmale0399 · 20-03-2019 05:15PM

prawnsambo wrote: »

Very swift return of serve. HoC is running back from the net and hoping to get to the ball before it gets to the byline.

HoC now have to decide....WA, Hard Brexit or Revoke A50

Sardonicat · 20-03-2019 05:16PM

Inquitus wrote: »

JeffKenna wrote: »

This is beyond crazy!!

What's happening? Stuck in work, can't watch the commons.

Groundhog day.

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 05:16PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Some seeing it as Tusk resigned to a no deal.

Possibly. Really not sure where this leaves it. Sounded positive for pm to me on first listen but not so sure now.

Hurrache · 20-03-2019 05:20PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Possibly. Really not sure where this leaves it. Sounded positive for pm to me on first listen but not so sure now.

I think it pretty much says that if the meaningful vote is not passed next week, that's it, you're out.

ShooterSF · 20-03-2019 05:20PM

bob mcbob wrote: »

latest poll shows clear majority to remain

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-second-referendum-deal-opinion-poll-theresa-may-a8831241.html

Ouch. Surely this makes the referendum issue more difficult. How can you go to the people and offer only May's deal or remain when no deal seems to be the preferred version of brexit by the populous if any was to happen?

Sardonicat · 20-03-2019 05:21PM

Hurrache wrote: »

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Possibly. Really not sure where this leaves it. Sounded positive for pm to me on first listen but not so sure now.

I think it pretty much says that if the meaningful vote is not passed next week, that's it, you're out.

Can someone please explain why they would need an extension if the vote goes through?

Joe_ Public · 20-03-2019 05:23PM

Hurrache wrote: »

I think it pretty much says that if the meaningful vote is not passed next week, that's it, you're out.

If this guarantees she can get the mv before hoc next week then it’s definitely positive for her I would think.

BonnieSituation · 20-03-2019 05:24PM

A few minutes ago a clearly exasperated Heidi Allen losing it saying "NO MORE!" to the despatch box.

Just now: SNP MP "Bring it on, we'll get all our seats back" when comments about May calling a GE were made.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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