Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Infini · 20-03-2019 02:28PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But the question is why? Why would she put herself, her party and the country through all that?

Arrogance, Vanity and pure Ignorance. Many have fallen before in the past to this.

Blowfish · 20-03-2019 02:28PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I reckon they will request more info before making a final call. They will want to be seen as trying to cooperate whilst the UK will be seen to confirm they don't know what they're doing.

If they manage to sort out the MEP issue in a way they are happy with, the best move the EU could make would be to agree to the extension, but make it conditional on the WA being passed by the 29th.

That way, they are being cooperative by allowing it, but they leave the pressure entirely (where it should be) on the UK parliament to get their **** sorted out themselves. In that situation, if May can't get the WA to be voted on again or if she does and the WA vote fails, it's all on her.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 20-03-2019 02:29PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

This is true.

The slight qualification is that the timeline for "ultimately" is undefined.

It's de-facto of more "agree in principle" that they will do it eventually

More pertinent would you that their other existing opt-outs (and rebate!) would be gone.

The real problem for the UK in that situation is ERM-II though, pegging GBP to the Euro from day-one, regardless of joining the Eurozone and implementing the Euro.

But, I believe (and there's no precedent for this) that there's nothing in EU law that would suggest that their rebates and deals wouldn't be gone if they left and re-joined. They'd be joining as a "new" Member.

Akrasia · 20-03-2019 02:29PM

Deleted User wrote: »

It's not a terrible deal though. Other than staying in the EU it's as good a deal as they're likely to get. When it was agreed I felt the EU had given them too much. I have to keep reminding myself that this deal isn't a rod for the UK's back however much they keep pretending that it's a humiliation.

Its a terrible deal compared to staying the SM and CU and losing free movement. The Backstop makes it better because it keeps them in the SM and CU temporarily, but for as long as they are in the backstop, the Tory party will be in total disarray

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 20-03-2019 02:31PM

RobertKK wrote: »

I know what you are saying, but the UK/EU will not stay in a no deal scenario forever.
It will have to be the UK coming to the EU to fix this - as it is now, as it will be if a no deal exit happens.

No no... that's the point of the WA, which gives time via the transition period to make a deal. No WA deal = no transition period.

MadYaker · 20-03-2019 02:34PM

Yeah the guy above is right. Grant a 3 month extension on the basis that the withdrawal agreement is passed by the 29th

prawnsambo · 20-03-2019 02:35PM

Akrasia wrote: »

She will. Bercow allowed the 2nd meaningful vote because he said 'it could be credibly argued' that it was different from the 1st vote.

Her MV3 needs different in substance, but that could be tacking on reference to a specific extension or something related to NI that changes they can 'credibly argue' changes it in substance

Changing the date it comes into force could be enough on its own. But I'm not seeing reciprocation from the EuCo. It's very much up in the air as to whether they would all support such an extension for essentially no reason.

Akrasia · 20-03-2019 02:35PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But the question is why? Why would she put herself, her party and the country through all that?

She decided her gameplan and has stuck with it.

It's a bit like a rugby team that scores an early penalty on a wet blustery cold day and then puts the ball up their jumper for the rest of the game, absorbing hit after hit and running down the clock.

Theresa May worked out that the only way for her to get any deal past her party was to do it this way. Of course, she could have tried to do a soft brexit with cross party support, but she didn't decide that

If she gets her deal through at the last minute, she knows that she will be written up in the history books as the PM who negotiated a deal with the EU, delivered it and avoided crashing out of the EU.

When people say she should have cancelled brexit, she just says she's a woman of principle and respects the 'will of the people'

RobertKK · 20-03-2019 02:36PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

1919 UK nearly lost WW1 which they so willingly entered, only to be rescued by USA, 2nd time around they came closer to disaster, bankrupting their empire in exchange for yet another rescue.

I wonder how Trump will fit into the Brexit saga near the end with his America First policies...

Well you have people like John Bolton talking about how great Brexit is, UK getting its independence crap and how the US will quickly do a trade deal.
Then Irish American politicians from both parties saying if the UK does anything to harm Ireland or the peace process, there will be no trade deal.

There won't be any trade deal, the UK will align with the EU agricultural rules they want to keep, and that will be enough to stop the delusions of some super US trade deal.
America will put itself first as they have done before Trump when it comes to a trade deal and their want to get their agricultural goods into the EU but which won't due to not meeting the standards the Europeans want and expect.

Professor Moriarty · 20-03-2019 02:39PM

So Juncker wrote to May telling her that the UK must leave by May 23rd or contest EU elections. He told her the same in a phone call. She then writes a letter requesting an extension until June 30th. Breathtaking arrogance.

Awesomeness · 20-03-2019 02:41PM

Macron says he will vote to refuse extension apparantly

https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/emmanuel-berretta/emmanuel-macron-refuse-de-reporter-la-date-du-brexit-20-03-2019-2302680_1897.php

RobertKK · 20-03-2019 02:44PM

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

No no... that's the point of the WA, which gives time via the transition period to make a deal. No WA deal = no transition period.

That is not what I am arguing.

The UK may end up coming back and the long term deal being something like being in the single market like Norway as well as being in the Customs Union to suit the need for a borderless Ireland.

The whole Brexit project was based on trying to kill off Eurosceptics and instead a needless referendum turned into a Pandora's box.

Donald Trump · 20-03-2019 02:45PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

So Juncker wrote to May telling her that the UK must leave by May 23rd or contest EU elections. He told her the same in a phone call. She then writes a letter requesting an extension until June 30th. Breathtaking arrogance.

Or else looking for an excuse to blame Europe for her own shambles. Easier to let them appear to make the decision rather than for her to actually own it

Enzokk · 20-03-2019 02:46PM

This tweet highlights how untrustworthy the government is.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1108359065749635077

Last week they said if her deal is not approved this week they will ask for a long extension and have indicative votes from parliament on the way forward. This most likely meant the Benn amendment was voted down, by 2 votes, because they would get the same as the amendment from the government.

Today she has ruled that out stating votes on this were held and it was rejected so no indicative votes.

Professor Moriarty · 20-03-2019 02:47PM

Awesomeness wrote: »

Macron says he will vote to refuse extension apparantly

https://www.lepoint.fr/politique/emmanuel-berretta/emmanuel-macron-refuse-de-reporter-la-date-du-brexit-20-03-2019-2302680_1897.php

Well, he's saying that he doesn't see the point of an extension and that's what he will say at the meeting. He hasn't specifically said he'll veto the request, just that it's possible. They said it's still being decided by the French government.

MadYaker · 20-03-2019 02:49PM

The rest of the EU must be well sick of this circus by now. Hard to imagine them granting anything

bilston · 20-03-2019 02:50PM

Unless May gets her WA deal through parliament (if she even gets the chance to) I think there is a real chance the EU will veto an extension.

I think a no deal Brexit is very very likely now.

Of course we are in the end game of all of this now, so brinkmanship is inevitable. It was the same with the GFA IIRC.

Professor Moriarty · 20-03-2019 02:51PM

bilston wrote: »

Unless May gets her WA deal through parliament (if she even gets the chance to) I think there is a real chance the EU will veto an extension.

I think a no deal Brexit is very very likely now.

I think the Tories will fragment, May will resign and there'll be a GE before they crash out.

Zubeneschamali · 20-03-2019 02:54PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think the Tories will fragment, May will resign and there'll be a GE before they crash out.

There is no time for a general election. May resigning and the Tories fragmenting would not delay Brexit, it will still happen in 9 days.

Professor Moriarty · 20-03-2019 02:57PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

There is no time for a general election. May resigning and the Tories fragmenting would not delay Brexit, it will still happen in 9 days.

The EU would grant an extension in the event of a GE being called. Barnier said as much yesterday.

briany · 20-03-2019 02:58PM

If the EU rejected a proposal to extend, then I can see May pivoting to a squarely 'blame the EU' position. The trouble with this is that it has wide implications, the main one being that it's going to severely hamper subsequent negotiations on a free trade deal. Then again, with the political situation in the UK, it's difficult to imagine the UK getting on in an FTA with the EU. They have politicians willing to rail against every point of such an agreement.

Infini · 20-03-2019 03:00PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU would grant an extension in the event of a GE being called. Barnier said as much yesterday.

Yeah they'd also have to participate in the Euro Elections but a GE is one of 2 realistic chances of an extention. The other being a 2nd referendum.

briany wrote: »

If the EU rejected a proposal to extend, then I can see May pivoting to a squarely 'blame the EU' position. The trouble with this is that it has wide implications, the main one being that it's going to severely hamper subsequent negotiations on a free trade deal. Then again, with the political situation in the UK, it's difficult to imagine the UK getting on in an FTA with the EU. They have politicians willing to rail against every point of such an agreement.

Blame the EU will ring hollow when countered with the "We gave you an out" argument. If they crash its their counties government that failed them noone else. May's government and even the conservatives are likely not to last a few days past a no deal Brexit either they'll fall into complete disarray and be utterly savaged should it result in severe hardship for people. Likely it will be a messy ugly affair. There wont be much of a negotiation for a FTA after that it will literally be on the EU's terms they'll be in no position either economically, politically or diplomatically to demand anything after causing such a foolhardy and needless disaster.

Duane Dibbley · 20-03-2019 03:03PM

briany wrote: »

If the EU rejected a proposal to extend, then I can see May pivoting to a squarely 'blame the EU' position. The trouble with this is that it has wide implications, the main one being that it's going to severely hamper subsequent negotiations on a free trade deal. Then again, with the political situation in the UK, it's difficult to imagine the UK getting on in an FTA with the EU. They have politicians willing to rail against every point of such an agreement.

She can blame the EU all she wants.

It might have worked if all this took place out of sight but everyone in the UK and around the world has witnessed the incompetence of the UK Parliament like it was a Drama on Netflix

Professor Moriarty · 20-03-2019 03:03PM

Infini wrote: »

Yeah they'd also have to participate in the Euro Elections but a GE is one of 2 realistic chances of an extention. The other being a 2nd referendum.

Yeah, he said an extension "must be linked to a new event or a new political process" which being interpreted as a GE or a referendum. I fear for British democracy at this stage.

serfboard · 20-03-2019 03:03PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I think the Tories will fragment, May will resign and there'll be a GE before they crash out.

I don't know what's gone on in this normally spot-on thread.

Ye're all wrong. The EU will cave in at the last minute.:rolleyes:

Strazdas · 20-03-2019 03:06PM

MadYaker wrote: »

The rest of the EU must be well sick of this circus by now. Hard to imagine them granting anything

Yes : the British press have failed to pick up on the fact that Europe is now sick of Brexit and also that they think May has a screw loose.

The BBC and others have been talking in a matter of fact way of how an extension will be granted and not realising just how bad the atmosphere is and how perilous the situation.

Laois_Man · 20-03-2019 03:06PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The EU would grant an extension in the event of a GE being called. Barnier said as much yesterday.

There isn't going to be a General Election called before next Friday

robinph · 20-03-2019 03:06PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

She can blame the EU all she wants.

It might have worked if all this took place out of sight but everyone in the UK and around the world has witnessed the incompetence of the UK Parliament like it was a Drama on Netflix

Not everyone in the UK by any stretch. 17 odd million of them have been buying the idea all along that the EU is being awkward and still are set in that mindset.

Akrasia · 20-03-2019 03:08PM

Donald Trump wrote: »

Or else looking for an excuse to blame Europe for her own shambles. Easier to let them appear to make the decision rather than for her to actually own it

She wants them to reject her extension request, she never wanted an extension, she wants to use the cliff edge as the stick to beat the HOC with to pressure them into voting for her deal. If the HOC have already got an extended deadline, then her strategy of waiting for the last moment has to start again. She's only requesting an extension at all because she was forced to by the HOC. So rather than act in good faith, she is fulfilling that mandate by the letter of the law, but not by the spirit of the request. She is in contempt of the decision of the Parliament

Akrasia · 20-03-2019 03:14PM

Enzokk wrote: »

This tweet highlights how untrustworthy the government is.

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1108359065749635077

Last week they said if her deal is not approved this week they will ask for a long extension and have indicative votes from parliament on the way forward. This most likely meant the Benn amendment was voted down, by 2 votes, because they would get the same as the amendment from the government.

Today she has ruled that out stating votes on this were held and it was rejected so no indicative votes.

It's utterly anti democratic and extremely dishonourable from the 'honourable ladies and gentlemen' But they have shown over and over again that they will abuse process and mislead parliament and distort the facts as long as it will get them what they want.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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