Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha · 20-03-2019 02:02PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

That leaves the issue of getting MV3 to happen though. A simple extension doesn't solve that. It just buys time and the past 2 years have shown the UK to be recklessly profligate in that regard.

briany · 20-03-2019 02:02PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Whether to rejoin the EU. This will not happen immediately though, the most likely action is a new general election and then a few years of stumbling around before they get to that realisation.

I just couldn't see the UK holding this type of referendum. Mainly because the terms of the UK staying in the EU and rejoining the EU would be different. If the UK were to crash out, and soon after apply to rejoin, things like joining Schengen and adopting the Euro would become part of the conversation, and such parameters would make even ardent Remain supporters think twice.

We could suppose that the UK becomes so battered and on its knees that it would accept rejoining under any stipulations, but the EU does not readily accept any old riff-raff.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 20-03-2019 02:02PM

Enzokk wrote: »

Whether to rejoin the EU. This will not happen immediately though, the most likely action is a new general election and then a few years of stumbling around before they get to that realisation.

A referendum to rejoin the EU would be a disaster for the UK, as it would require alignment with ERM-II and ultimately joining the Eurozone.

Leroy42 wrote: »

What, so TM could just select anyone she wants?

Hardly taking back control and dealing with the anti-democratic EU now is it?

Could she send over whomever she likes, Olly Robbins for Eg?

Where is the basis for this ability for countries to simply ignore the democratic requirements?

They would have to be elected MPs sent according to the EP legal department.

“The Legal Service… takes the view that… the European Council could validly adopt a decision containing a scenario for the composition of Parliament without seats envisaged for the UK, if the latter had not formally withdrawn from the Union at the time of adoption of this decision... The Legal Service takes the view that, the possibility for the European Parliament to be validly constituted following the 2019 elections would not be affected by a potential failure of by the UK to organise elections.”

Duane Dibbley · 20-03-2019 02:03PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

The EU are not playing around. They will reject it today

ShooterSF · 20-03-2019 02:03PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

The only way I see that working and I'm surprised it isn't mentioned more maybe it isn't enforceable is an agreement that the UK could no longer revoke A50 without EU agreement. The EU would be safe from having the elections screwed with and May would have the chance to put her deal forward as the only option against no deal crash out legitimately and probably pass it. Which seems to be win for both sides.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 20-03-2019 02:04PM

Blowfish wrote: »

My understanding is that there's legislation around appointing MEP's and it must be through an elected PR process.

That's aside from the obvious in that some of their seats have been 'handed out' to other countries, Ireland are gaining 2. What's supposed to happen there? Do they also expect the EU to be happy with them 'wasting' the seats by them being appointed/elected but not actually being around long enough for the first euro parliament sitting?

[edit] Partially beaten to it, thread moves fast.

EP has legal opinion that says they technically only have to be elected officials, they don't need to specifically be elected MEPs. The seat levels would remain the same until after the UK left.

It's a silly situation which is why we shouldn't allow an extension that goes beyond the EP elections.

Laois_Man · 20-03-2019 02:05PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

Absolutely not!

There's no guarantee that MV3 will pass (or even that it will be held for that matter). She has even ruled out extending further beyond June 30th in the event that it doenst pass! Its ludicrous and arrogant to the extreme!

The reply has to come ASAP so as to give them one last week to cop the **** on!!

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 20-03-2019 02:05PM

Infini wrote: »

It's likely that they'd let Britain rejoin down the line once it get's its head out of its arse and get's its house in order. Conservatives and May need to go though they're dangerously incompetent and irredemably arrogant. Britain needs a significant amount of time to get its house in order and likely there wont be any point in rejoining before this happens. Likely though Scotland will go independent and NI will reunify with the south during that time though.

I honestly think the EU should just reject the application for an extention this week so as to give the UK enough time to seriously decide what it wants: In or Out. Make your choice but no more delaying or games. Decide. Because all they'll do is stall, delay and evade any decision unless they're forced to choose to be honest.

To my knowledge there is zero legal mechanism for a third-country to enter the EU without going through the official process.

Enzokk · 20-03-2019 02:08PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

There is no need to reject it out of hand or quickly.

TM is saying that she needs a short extension to get her deal through. So hold off any reply and let her find a way to get her MV again. If that passes that 30th June is grand.

Put the ball firmly back in TM's court

She will not get another chance to vote on her deal again without any changes, either to the deal or to show it will actually pass. Seeing that the Speaker will not allow a vote to just happen without most likely an extension we are at a chicken or egg situation. The EU will not give an extension unless her deal is passed and she will not get a vote on her deal until the EU grants an extension.

Blowfish · 20-03-2019 02:09PM

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

EP has legal opinion that says they technically only have to be elected officials, they don't need to specifically be elected MEPs.

Isn't that scuppered by the fact that the UK elects MP's via FPTP and not PR, which is a requirement of the MEP elections?

I suppose they could get around that by handing out the number of seats to MP's in a PR fashion (i.e. 50% of the 'popular vote' gets you 50% of the MEP seats for your MP's). I'm not sure even that would work though as the likes of UKIP got 12% of the 'popular vote' so would qualify for a seat but have no MP's to give it to.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 20-03-2019 02:10PM

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

The EU are not playing around. They will reject it today

Could be wrong on this, but I think they will wait until tomorrow to reject it.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 20-03-2019 02:12PM

Blowfish wrote: »

Isn't that scuppered by the fact that the UK elects MP's via FPTP and not PR, which is a requirement of the MEP elections?

I suppose they could get around that by handing out the number of seats to MP's in a PR fashion (i.e. 50% of the 'popular vote' gets you 50% of the MEP seats for your MP's). I'm not sure even that would work though as the likes of UKIP got 12% of the 'popular vote' so would qualify for a seat but have no MP's to give it to.

Honestly, I think they'd turn a blind eye to that if at all possible - democratically elected is democratically elected and I don't think the EU would look kindly on, in effect, challenging the type of democracy in the UK at this point in time.
That being said, a Member State could sue the EU in relation to the process, but again, I think they wouldn't bother and it wouldn't be well received by the other Member States.

Leroy42 · 20-03-2019 02:13PM

But it still entails UK having to put forward MEP's, whether elected or directly chosen.

So from a situation where a majority of people voted to leave the EU based on its undemocratic nature the UK could potentially be in a long extension (should her deal no pass) with representatives based on whatever opinion TM has! Whilst it might legally be doable, politically it is a non runner.

Laois_Man · 20-03-2019 02:13PM

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Could be wrong on this, but I think they will wait until tomorrow to reject it.

I just wish her humiliating presentation to them would be done in front of the cameras for all the world to see!

Seth Brundle · 20-03-2019 02:13PM

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

Could be wrong on this, but I think they will wait until tomorrow to reject it.

I reckon they will request more info before making a final call. They will want to be seen as trying to cooperate whilst the UK will be seen to confirm they don't know what they're doing.

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta · 20-03-2019 02:15PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

I reckon they will request more info before making a final call. They will want to be seen as trying to cooperate whilst the UK will be seen to confirm they don't know what they're doing.

I think you're probably correct, but by issue with that is they have already clearly said her request should outline a legitimate reason for extension... MV3 isn't a good enough reason IMHO.

Akrasia · 20-03-2019 02:16PM

robinph wrote: »

I think her master plan is to crash out and run away screaming that it was all the EU's fault as they never did what she didn't actually ever ask for.

Her master plan is fairly obvious tbh, and it hasn't changed at all since she agreed her withdrawal agreement

1. Delay Delay Delay. Delay holding debates, holding votes, delay making decisions that need to be voted on

2. Hold votes when she feels she has to knowing that they will lose

3. Keep the possibility of a no deal and table until the very last minute. If possible have the possibility of no brexit removed as early as possible.

4. Get her deal passed because enough brextremists will be afraid of no brexit, and either enough remainers will be scared of no deal that they reluctantly vote for her deal, or she can delay it beyond the point when they can cancel Article 50 (by not participating in the EUPARL elections)

So far it's working. When she decided this strategy, she knew what she was letting herself in for. She knew she would have to stand up and lie and deceive and humuliate herself and repeat platitudes and avoid questions for months on end, knowing that she would face mounting pressure and mounting outrage the closer it gets to the 'last minute'.

She is prepared to waste billions of pounds in British and European money to get her deal through, a deal which is fundamentally worse than remaining in the EU in practically every way. But this is her gameplan, and she's very close to pulling it off.

Akrasia · 20-03-2019 02:19PM

What Jeremy Corbyn doing is almost worse. His strategy is to either allow May pass her terrible deal and take the blame for it, or allow her to crash out and blame her for it.

He is an utter disgrace and if I was a member of the UK labour party I'd be doing everything in my power to have him removed as leader.

20-03-2019 02:23PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Her master plan is fairly obvious tbh, and it hasn't changed at all since she agreed her withdrawal agreement

1. Delay Delay Delay. Delay holding debates, holding votes, delay making decisions that need to be voted on

2. Hold votes when she feels she has to knowing that they will lose

3. Keep the possibility of a no deal and table until the very last minute. If possible have the possibility of no brexit removed as early as possible.

4. Get her deal passed because enough brextremists will be afraid of no brexit, and either enough remainers will be scared of no deal that they reluctantly vote for her deal, or she can delay it beyond the point when they can cancel Article 50 (by not participating in the EUPARL elections)

So far it's working. When she decided this strategy, she knew what she was letting herself in for. She knew she would have to stand up and lie and deceive and humuliate herself and repeat platitudes and avoid questions for months on end, knowing that she would face mounting pressure and mounting outrage the closer it gets to the 'last minute'.

She is prepared to waste billions of pounds in British and European money to get her deal through, a deal which is fundamentally worse than remaining in the EU in practically every way. But this is her gameplan, and she's very close to pulling it off.

If she can get another vote held.

Professor Moriarty · 20-03-2019 02:23PM

correct horse battery staple wrote: »

That sounds undemocratic, is all the EU have to reply to that.

We have entered the 11th hour, I say Tory party is days away from imploding.

Fingers crossed. It won't be Brexit that will break the Tory party, it will be selfish ambitions.

Akrasia · 20-03-2019 02:23PM

Brussels have said that they will 'strongly oppose' May's request, demanding that the extension ends on May 23, or a much longer extension.

May could easily have known this would happen and is using this to stall for time as per her strategy above.

Donald Trump · 20-03-2019 02:23PM

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

A referendum to rejoin the EU would be a disaster for the UK, as it would require alignment with ERM-II and ultimately joining the Eurozone.

This is true.

The slight qualification is that the timeline for "ultimately" is undefined.

It's de-facto of more "agree in principle" that they will do it eventually

More pertinent would you that their other existing opt-outs (and rebate!) would be gone.

20-03-2019 02:24PM

Akrasia wrote: »

What Jeremy Corbyn doing is almost worse. His strategy is to either allow May pass her terrible deal and take the blame for it, or allow her to crash out and blame her for it.

He is an utter disgrace and if I was a member of the UK labour party I'd be doing everything in my power to have him removed as leader.

It's not a terrible deal though. Other than staying in the EU it's as good a deal as they're likely to get. When it was agreed I felt the EU had given them too much. I have to keep reminding myself that this deal isn't a rod for the UK's back however much they keep pretending that it's a humiliation.

Laois_Man · 20-03-2019 02:24PM

I said this yesterday....

Laois_Man wrote: »

I'm half convinced this letter will be intentionally designed as one to be rejected, then either WA goes thru or the UK has the default hard Brexit and May gets to blame Bercow and the EU

I'm no longer half convinced, I am fully convinced

Either a no deal exit or a panic WA3 vote next week, while blaming others is 100% her plan!

Professor Moriarty · 20-03-2019 02:25PM

Akrasia wrote: »

What Jeremy Corbyn doing is almost worse. His strategy is to either allow May pass her terrible deal and take the blame for it, or allow her to crash out and blame her for it.

He is an utter disgrace and if I was a member of the UK labour party I'd be doing everything in my power to have him removed as leader.

Corbyn has even less credibility than May. TBF, Tom Watson is doing his best.

Akrasia · 20-03-2019 02:25PM

Deleted User wrote: »

If she can get another vote held.

She will. Bercow allowed the 2nd meaningful vote because he said 'it could be credibly argued' that it was different from the 1st vote.

Her MV3 needs different in substance, but that could be tacking on reference to a specific extension or something related to NI that changes they can 'credibly argue' changes it in substance

Leroy42 · 20-03-2019 02:25PM

Akrasia wrote: »

Her master plan is fairly obvious tbh, and it hasn't changed at all since she agreed her withdrawal agreement

But the question is why? Why would she put herself, her party and the country through all that?

RobertKK · 20-03-2019 02:26PM

Schnitzler Hiyori Geta wrote: »

The problem with this is that no deal means no transition period, so the UK can't really come back after no deal with a deal (if that makes sense).

I know what you are saying, but the UK/EU will not stay in a no deal scenario forever.
It will have to be the UK coming to the EU to fix this - as it is now, as it will be if a no deal exit happens.

The UK acted as if it was 1919 UK when it was a far more powerful country, believed it could play nation against nation and cause disunity in the EU to get what they wanted.
The EU did give what they wanted to suit the long list of UK red lines and maybe with the EU being so united is what really spooked the UK, made it appear the UK was bending over given other countries were not objecting in any meaningful way in public.

Professor Moriarty · 20-03-2019 02:27PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But the question is why? Why would she put herself, her party and the country through all that?

She's the leader of the Tory party so she has no alternative. However, if she put being PM first over being leader of the Tory party, then myriad options would unfold.

Laois_Man · 20-03-2019 02:27PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

But the question is why? Why would she put herself, her party and the country through all that?

Brexit has to happen while she's PM
It's her place in history!

It is gonna be a mess - but she hopes history will look at it differently after years of major problems fizzle out

Her thinking.....not mine.....is what I believe

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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