Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Professor Moriarty · 19-03-2019 05:49PM

The Telegraph has an op-ed article defending Brexit and blaming the EU elite for thwarting the will of the people. Written by Donald Trump Jr. I didn't think they could sink so low but I was wrong.

Anteayer · 19-03-2019 05:53PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Elysee Palace is saying that Britain will not get an extension unless there is a credible plan that has the backing of parliament. The patience of Les Bleus is running out.

I think a lot of commentators are not understanding that the Tories, UKIP and the DUP are being compared to Marine Le Pen's party and similar on the continent. Macron absolutely needs Brexit to end, well ahead of the next French presidential and legislative elections which will be in 2022.

If Brexit is still bubbling away by then, it creates a huge platform for Le Pen to take the presidency based on similar policies that would seek to take France in a more UKIPy direction.

I would suspect Macron's patience with Brexit ended when the withdrawal agreement was shot down. It's going to end one way or the other on March 29th.

The UK media seem to be absolutely focused on Westminster and fail to comprehend that there are 27 other countries being impacted by the decisions and who have a huge say in the response to them.

I would suspect what we'll see is a crash out and some kind of emergency measures to prevent the absolute worst of the economic implications happening, but it will still be a total mess and maybe in a couple of terms of UK government, you might see a change of plan and reapplication for the EU or at least EEA membership.

Duane Dibbley · 19-03-2019 05:55PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Elysee Palace is saying that Britain will not get an extension unless there is a credible plan that has the backing of parliament. The patience of Les Bleus is running out.

They are right aswell.

The UK Parliament are causing a stand still in the EU.

RickBlaine · 19-03-2019 05:59PM

When is the EU27 making the decision on the possible extension. Will it be at this week's summit or later?

Anteayer · 19-03-2019 06:00PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

When is the EU27 making the decision on the possible extension. Will it be at this week's summit or later?

Either this week, or there'll be a quick special summit. I don't think they can really let this one drag on though as there will have to be clarity ahead of 29 March.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 06:04PM

So what do people reckon on these 2 questions:

1) What will Theresa May ask for?
Short Extension (30th June) / Long Extension (18month+) / a mix of the 2 depending on an MV3 being held and its result.

2) What will the EU offer her?
Short Extension (30th June) / Long Extension (18month+) / Both

Silent Running · 19-03-2019 06:05PM

There are 10 calendar days until the deadline. How many days is the house sitting in that time though?

I don't think there is time to come up with anything constructive to persuade the EU to grant an extension. The UK will only get one if the EU are feeling particularly benevolent. I get that the UK are a large trading partner, but at some stage the benefits of having her around are outweighed by the chaos she brings.

Having a belligerent UK back in the EU could cause much grinding of gears in the EU parliament when it really needs to be running like a (non EU) Swiss clock.

Much better to clean house now and deal with the fallout, IMHO.

Strazdas · 19-03-2019 06:06PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

When is the EU27 making the decision on the possible extension. Will it be at this week's summit or later?

There is no particular impending deadline : they don't have to announce at the summit what their decision is......they could leave it for several days and well into next week at least

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 06:08PM

Strazdas wrote: »

There is no particular impending deadline : they don't have to announce at the summit what their decision is......they could leave it for several days and well into next week at least

The UK Parliament will need a few days to pass required laws etc. to change the Brexit Date and the like, given the recent narrowness of results and lack of a clear vision, this could take a number of sessions you'd think? I would imagine May will want to be back with something to offer for Monday of next week, the 25th March, to try and get whatever she dreams up through the House?

Anteayer · 19-03-2019 06:09PM

Anyone know what the exact EU legislative mechanics of extending Article 50 are?

Does the council need unanimity or can it be done by QMV?

An Ciarraioch · 19-03-2019 06:10PM

Anteayer wrote: »

Anyone know what the exact EU legislative mechanics of extending Article 50 are?

Does the council need unanimity or can it be done by QMV?

No - all 27 governments must agree.

Laois_Man · 19-03-2019 06:10PM

Strazdas wrote: »

There is no particular impending deadline : they don't have to announce at the summit what their decision is......they could leave it for several days and well into next week at least

I don't think it will take long to come to a decision. They will receive an extension request from May with no real plan of action and it will be blown out of the water very quickly - to give her time to come back with a coherent plan!

Anteayer · 19-03-2019 06:10PM

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

No - all 27 governments must agree.

Ah, I see the memo :

http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-17-648_en.htm

When does the United Kingdom cease to be a member of the European Union?
The EU Treaties cease to apply to the United Kingdom from the date of entry into force of the agreement, or within 2 years of the notification of withdrawal, in case of no agreement. The Council may decide to extend that period by unanimity...

What happens if no agreement is reached?
The EU Treaties simply cease to apply to the UK two years after notification.

RickBlaine · 19-03-2019 06:12PM

Here's a question (the answer to which is probably complete speculation at this point), if the EU27 does not grant an extension, would the government not be under huge pressure to revoke article 50 given that Parliament has already voted against a no deal exit?

Anteayer · 19-03-2019 06:13PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Here's a question (the answer to which is probably complete speculation at this point), if the EU27 does not grant an extension, would the government not be under huge pressure to revoke article 50 given that Parliament has already voted against a no deal exit?

Probably. They can withdraw it up until 23:59 CET on 29 March or 22:59 Imperial Brexit Time.

I don't know that they'd be able to organise themselves to actually do it though. It's more likely they'll end up having an argument about some irrelevancy.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 06:13PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Here's a question (the answer to which is probably complete speculation at this point), if the EU27 does not grant an extension, would the government not be under huge pressure to revoke article 50 given that Parliament has already voted against a no deal exit?

It would be one way out of the situation, there is a lack of clarity around whether May can do that unilaterally or it has to pass a vote in the commons, from my reading it seems the latter is more likely.

Sierra Oscar · 19-03-2019 06:47PM

road_high wrote: »

Two year extension will definitely mean the UK will have to partake in EU elections? That’ll all have to be decided very soon

As far as I can tell that will have to happen regardless of the length of the extension so long as the extension goes beyond the 2nd of July.

The 9th session of the European Parliament is due to open on the 2nd of July. Legally speaking under the standing orders of the European Parliament the parliament itself has to be made up of representatives of every European Member state. If the UK do not return MEP's then parliament itself is not legally constituted. Any laws that it attempts to pass would be null and void.

This is a real headache for the EU as much as it is for the UK. It's why a long extension in many ways simply is not in the EU's interest. If the UK returns MEP's then they will be involved in forming parliamentary groupings, drafting budgets and steering the direction of the Commission / EU as a whole. Why would you give a country that is hostile to your organisation a major say over the future direction of your organisation? Major issue.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 06:51PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

As far as I can tell that will have to happen regardless of the length of the extension so long as the extension goes beyond the 2nd of July.

The 9th session of the European Parliament is due to open on the 2nd of July. Legally speaking under the standing orders of the European Parliament the parliament itself has to be made up of representatives of every European Member state. If the UK do not return MEP's then parliament itself is not legally constituted. Any laws that it attempts to pass would be null and void.

Yep, that's why I think a short extension is very dangerous, it allows all this to be kicked down the road a bit further, but once the European Elections have taken place without the UK, then you are in a real cliff edge situation with no remedy. It would certainly end up May's Deal or No Deal with no other options possible.

Roger_007 · 19-03-2019 07:04PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Yep, that's why I think a short extension is very dangerous, it allows all this to be kicked down the road a bit further, but once the European Elections have taken place without the UK, then you are in a real cliff edge situation with no remedy. It would certainly end up May's Deal or No Deal with no other options possible.

If the UK are getting a long(ish) extension they will probably have to take part in the EU election. If the UK have to have an election for MEPs it will be the most surreal election ever. It will be like an extended episode of Monty Python.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 07:07PM

Roger_007 wrote: »

If the UK are getting a long(ish) extension they will probably have to take part in the EU election. If the UK have to have an election for MEPs it will be the most surreal election ever. It will be like an extended episode of Monty Python.

Indeed, it would probably give some interesting outcomes too! Personally I think any extension needs to be long and needs to include the UK running European elections in late May along with the rest of us.

Igotadose · 19-03-2019 07:12PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Indeed, it would probably give some interesting outcomes too! Personally I think any extension needs to be long and needs to include the UK running European elections in late May along with the rest of us.

All sorts of rumours out there as to who might end up as UK MEP's - Farage, Yaxley-whateverhisnameis, ... Might make for interesting times at the EU Parliament.

tuxy · 19-03-2019 07:18PM

Igotadose wrote: »

All sorts of rumours out there as to who might end up as UK MEP's - Farage, Yaxley-whateverhisnameis, ... Might make for interesting times at the EU Parliament.

I think you mean frustrating, Farage doesn't show up very often to the EU parliament but when he does he is only there to cause disruption. UKIP MEPs try to turn the EU parliament into something like the HOC by shouting and screaming.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 07:19PM

Igotadose wrote: »

All sorts of rumours out there as to who might end up as UK MEP's - Farage, Yaxley-whateverhisnameis, ... Might make for interesting times at the EU Parliament.

I guess I'd expect a slew of Remainers and a slew of Arch-Brexiteers to win depending on the constituency and its leanings. It would probably be 50/50 much like the original referendum, with both sides galvanised to vote.

tuxy · 19-03-2019 07:19PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Indeed, it would probably give some interesting outcomes too! Personally I think any extension needs to be long and needs to include the UK running European elections in late May along with the rest of us.

Has it been decided that they can leave current MEPs in place if they want to?
And if not won't they need MEP elections?

19-03-2019 07:33PM

Inquitus wrote: »

I guess I'd expect a slew of Remainers and a slew of Arch-Brexiteers to win depending on the constituency and its leanings. It would probably be 50/50 much like the original referendum, with both sides galvanised to vote.

It will be even more "interesting" to see how Eurosceptic from other countries play their hand in the elections.
It would be easy to demonstrate to the voters the EU's unyielding attitude towards the UK leaving and could get a lot of votes from their own countries.
There are several countries that are very Eurosceptic under the surface, Italy for example.

Zubeneschamali · 19-03-2019 07:38PM

I first heard the 21 month figure for an extension from the EU side. I wouldn't be surprised if they reject a June extension (pointless with no plan) and say the only extension on offer is the 21 month one including Euro elections. This gives time for May to be sent home to start again from scratch, and for lots more business to decide to exit Britain in an orderly manner.

ballsymchugh · 19-03-2019 07:43PM

tuxy wrote: »

I think you mean frustrating, Farage doesn't show up very often to the EU parliament but when he does he is only there to cause disruption. UKIP MEPs try to turn the EU parliament into something like the HOC by shouting and screaming.

Farage isn't a member of any party at the moment, and given that the UK elect MEPs on a list system, unless he forms something pretty fast, or UKIP take him back in, he probably won't be back.
there will be a few complete nutjobs though, UKIP have absorbed a few 'filthy articles' since the referendum

Infini · 19-03-2019 07:47PM

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The Elysee Palace is saying that Britain will not get an extension unless there is a credible plan that has the backing of parliament. The patience of Les Bleus is running out.

I'm being honest the French are absolutely right on this. Enough games, enough bluster, enough shenanigans. It should also be no small irony that it was De Gaulle that blocked the British from joining up to the 1970's so it would also be no small irony if they crashed out because the French decided "non".

Time's up at this point, the British are effectively out of road and political game's aren't going to fly, I'm honestly expecting that the HoC will be either given the choice of abandoning Brexit and take the flak by revoking A50 or effectively crashing out and that's what's going to end this. If there's one thing the EU can do at this point it's simply to say strait to their faces to decide once and for all are they in or out. This is the endgame to this whole farce and they have to decide already.

Roger_007 wrote: »

If the UK are getting a long(ish) extension they will probably have to take part in the EU election. If the UK have to have an election for MEPs it will be the most surreal election ever. It will be like an extended episode of Monty Python.

Way thing's are going and the more the HoC and May's government act the bollock's the less likely there's going to be any extension at this point, I honestly think with all that's happening it's going to be down to Abandon Brexit or Crash Out as a choice as they simply have no other viable options left since they've rejected the WA twice now. It's all or nothing. They'll be a huge amount of whinging and whining from Brexiteers and the toxic rags of course but honestly this pales in comparison to people essentially going hungry for food outside the local Tesco or Sainsburies as supply lines fail.

Capt'n Midnight · 19-03-2019 07:59PM

Joe_ Public wrote: »

Don’t know if I’m being slightly facetious or not but when i hear brexiteers going on about “the 17.4m”, as Owen Patterson has mentioned at least 5 times on bbc just now, i can’t help wondering how many of those are actually dead now. It’s just a phrase that annoys me either way, we’ve moved so far on from that now.

Tory voters are dying at 2% a year. So roughly one million would have died by now. Labour voting OAP's probably don't live as long.

Add in the teenagers who can vote now but factor in how few of them will vote and Remain would win today if every single person voted the exact same way they did last time.

And it was known at the time that the margin was made by people who wouldn't be around to live with the consequences.

CBA doing the maths again but a 21 month extension would probably take out over half a million more OAP's and add about the same number of voting teenagers, if they can get a good register to vote campaign going.

Spanish Eyes · 19-03-2019 08:00PM

Infini wrote: »

I'm being honest the French are absolutely right on this. Enough games, enough bluster, enough shenanigans. It should also be no small irony that it was De Gaulle that blocked the British from joining up to the 1970's so it would also be no small irony if they crashed out because the French decided "non".

Time's up at this point, the British are effectively out of road and political game's aren't going to fly, I'm honestly expecting that the HoC will be either given the choice of abandoning Brexit and take the flak by revoking A50 or effectively crashing out and that's what's going to end this. If there's one thing the EU can do at this point it's simply to say strait to their faces to decide once and for all are they in or out. This is the endgame to this whole farce and they have to decide already.

Way thing's are going and the more the HoC and May's government act the bollock's the less likely there's going to be any extension at this point, I honestly think with all that's happening it's going to be down to Abandon Brexit or Crash Out as a choice as they simply have no other viable options left since they've rejected the WA twice now. It's all or nothing. They'll be a huge amount of whinging and whining from Brexiteers and the toxic rags of course but honestly this pales in comparison to people essentially going hungry for food outside the local Tesco or Sainsburies as supply lines fail.

I agree that someone somewhere has to call the British shenanigans out.

Problem is, I am not sure if the French unilaterally should do it either. Send a strong message perhaps, but it should really be a united 27 front here.

But maybe France is saying what Germany is afraid to say for fear of being thought of as the Master of the EU or something that could be interpreted like that. Who knows?

Did I read somewhere that Farage was stalking the far right groups in EU to see if they would block an extension also? If that is true he is some traitor. But anyway, I must stay calm and controlled.

Blocking an extension unless and until UK has a plan or a goal (France) is a bit different to blocking it by Far Right supporters to scupper any progress in UK for different reasons.

We sure do live in interesting times. And I could have it all wrong too of course. No one has a clue really what's happening at all really.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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