Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

RickBlaine · 19-03-2019 03:59PM

I get the sense that the UK public at large are on Bercow's side. Whatever side of the Brexit debate people are on, they are completely sick of it at this stage and Bercow's decision is congruent with that.

The way some of the press (and indeed No 10) are behaving, you'd swear Bercow has blocked the first vote nevermind the third one.

As for No 10 claiming to be caught off guard, that is complete BS. I was aware his decision on the matter was forthcoming and was keeping an eye on the news since last week expecting his statement. And I don't even live in the UK.

And the BBC sending someone to follow him into work is a new low for them. There are official channels that the press can go through and for the government funded broadcaster to instead use gutter press tabloid tactics is disgraceful.

My understanding is that Bercow has simply followed the rules (after a Labour question seeking clarification) and would have required him to break or bend them in order to allow a third vote. Imagine the uproar if Bercow instead actually broke a rule while deciding not to allow a third vote.

But the media likes a scapegoat and today Bercow will play that role. It is just a shame (but not surprising) that No 10 is also vilifying him just like the tabloids.

Strazdas · 19-03-2019 04:06PM

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Bad news for the general UK public - they are going to hear about nothing but Brexit for many, many years no matter what happens.

If Brexit is cancelled, the Brexiteers will moan about it for 40 years at least.

If May's deal is ratified, it is just the first and easiest step in a process, it will be non-stop Brexit Trade Talks news for 5 years at least.

If No Deal crashout happens, the mutants surviving in the wasteland of the former UK will have a whole religion based on Brexit and waiting for the Chosen One to lead them back to the EU.

Indeed, something so divisive and destabilising is going to impact on Britain for many years to come.

I get the impression Leave voters thought Brexit would be done and dusted within two years and forgotten about the day after the UK leaves (that's if they did any "thinking" on the subject at all of course).

First Up · 19-03-2019 04:13PM

Strazdas wrote:

I get the impression Leave voters thought Brexit would be done and dusted within two years and forgotten about the day after the UK leaves (that's if they did any "thinking" on the subject at all of course).

Yes, its amusing to hear them talk about "getting it over with" as if it was a tooth extraction or something, after which things will get back to "normal". They don't seem to understand that its only the start.

RickBlaine · 19-03-2019 04:15PM

Did the people criticizing Bercow actually read / listen to his whole speech yesterday and the follow up questions? He basically said he is not prepared to break the rules but said in one of the follow up questions that parliament has the power to vote to change the rules if it sees fit. In what way is that a "constitutional crisis" as some have been claiming. Crazy delusional stuff!

trashcan · 19-03-2019 04:22PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Did the people criticizing Bercow actually read / listen to his whole speech yesterday and the follow up questions? He basically said he is not prepared to break the rules but said in one of the follow up questions that parliament has the power to vote to change the rules if it sees fit. In what way is that a "constitutional crisis" as some have been claiming. Crazy delusional stuff!

I listened to his speech, and it was clear, cogent and eminently sensible. It wasn't partisan either, he was simply applying the rules properly, you know, doing his job ! Quite out of character for a UK politician in these times.

Mr.Wemmick · 19-03-2019 04:23PM

This is so infuriating. The Theresa May supporting media and those at No.10 all need to grow the hell up.

The only adult in the room is Bercow. And they want to throw him out so they can continue to play silly buggers?

VinLieger · 19-03-2019 04:29PM

I do love the cognitive dissonance of those who are complaining about Bercow not allowing MV3 are people who voted against it the previous 2 times.

Infini · 19-03-2019 04:34PM

VinLieger wrote: »

I do love the cognitive dissonance of those who are complaining about Bercow not allowing MV3 are people who voted against it the previous 2 times.

Pig Ignorant Stupidy amplified by a toxic amount of adversarial arrogance is all the Brexiteers are about in that place. That and toxic rags that are unfit to even call themselves reporters.

Pride before the fall is more applicable than ever to this HoC and UK Government these days.

Anteayer · 19-03-2019 04:43PM

They don't listen to anything anymore. It's just all weird heckling gutteral noises and a parliamentary system that looks and sounds like something from medieval times.

I'm baffled by the whole thing at this stage.
A topple out by incompetence still looks likely.

Joe_ Public · 19-03-2019 04:43PM

Hard to figure out the lie of the land in all this but we still really need Mays deal to get through the hoc, don’t we? With the added kicker of it then being put before the people. A second referendum along any other lines would surely be very risky, if not unworkable. As for seeing brexit just somehow go away as a third option, how likely is that in actuality?

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 04:50PM

Personally I don't think the EU should allow an extension til June 30th, it should be either to the end of the next EU budget cycle at the end of 2020, or nothing. The last thing we want to see, is May taking her deal down to the wire again, especially if the UK has not hosted EU elections, as that represents a clear cliff edge that cannot be adjusted as the election ship will have sailed in late May.

road_high · 19-03-2019 04:54PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Personally I don't think the EU should allow an extension til June 30th, it should be either to the end of the next EU budget cycle at the end of 2020, or nothing. The last thing we want to see, is May taking her deal down to the wire again, especially if the UK has not hosted EU elections, as that represents a clear cliff edge that cannot be adjusted as the election ship will have sailed in late May.

I think a short three month extension will solve nothing either- just more of the same guff for another few months. Those that "want" Brexit aren't really willing to step forward and deliver the pain and chaos it'll inevitably bring but are happy sniping away on the sidelines. A bit like SF and PBP here vs the govt.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 04:57PM

road_high wrote: »

I think a short three month extension will solve nothing either- just more of the same guff for another few months. Those that "want" Brexit aren't really willing to step forward and deliver the pain and chaos it'll inevitably bring but are happy sniping away on the sidelines. A bit like SF and PBP here vs the govt.

I am more concerned it narrows the options somewhat if the UK don't host elections then it is May's Deal or No Deal with a 30th June Deadline that seemingly cannot be avoided. It gives too much power to the disfunctional commons and rules out softer outcomes. I also don't see how this is of any benefit to the EU, it kicks the can down a dead end and heightens the risks of a disasterous outcome.

Leroy42 · 19-03-2019 04:59PM

What benefit would the EU see in giving any extension, be it longer (21 months) or short? I can almost see the benefit in a long extension, it is already built into the transition period but with the real risk that the UK will send some very anti-EU MEPs should they be forced to partake in the elections.

A short-term extension appears to give no advantage, save for a few extra weeks to prepare (which whilst always welcome I don't see having that much of an effect).

Surely they can't really believe that the UK will simply forget about Brexit in either case? Or suddenly the political parties will come around to trying to avoid Brexit, rather than the current "will of the people". Corbyn yesterday, on Sky News, would not state what way he would vote in any 2nd Ref, so it is very likely that he would campaign for Leave again.

Irishmale0399 · 19-03-2019 05:00PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Personally I don't think the EU should allow an extension til June 30th, it should be either to the end of the next EU budget cycle at the end of 2020, or nothing. The last thing we want to see, is May taking her deal down to the wire again, especially if the UK has not hosted EU elections, as that represents a clear cliff edge that cannot be adjusted as the election ship will have sailed in late May.

Why should we offer them that option at this moment in time....3 options should be very simple....

1. Accept the WA and leave at the end of the month

2. Hard Brexit at the end of the month

3. Revoke A50 and get back to being a full member of the EU

The have had enough time to work things out and havent done it yet. What tells us they will do it by 2020??? They are like kids in a sweet shop....want everything but dont want to give anything.

ancapailldorcha · 19-03-2019 05:05PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

What benefit would the EU see in giving any extension, be it longer (21 months) or short? I can almost see the benefit in a long extension, it is already built into the transition period but with the real risk that the UK will send some very anti-EU MEPs should they be forced to partake in the elections.

A short-term extension appears to give no advantage, save for a few extra weeks to prepare (which whilst always welcome I don't see having that much of an effect).

Surely they can't really believe that the UK will simply forget about Brexit in either case? Or suddenly the political parties will come around to trying to avoid Brexit, rather than the current "will of the people". Corbyn yesterday, on Sky News, would not state what way he would vote in any 2nd Ref, so it is very likely that he would campaign for Leave again.

The UK is an important trading partner. The EU has and will try to find an amicable settlement that suits both upto the point where it would risk compromising on its core principles.

A long extension would be a nice bit of breathing space. It would be a massive help to people like myself who are in limbo though somewhat by choice due to our possession of EU Passports.

It would also give substantially more time to dealing with more complex issues like the Irish border.

Ultimately though, EU countries are going to want a reason to sanction such an extension. The Conservatives currently lack sufficient Political poise and grace to win their backing in my opinion.

ToBeFrank123 · 19-03-2019 05:07PM

British media and politicians calling Bercow's intervention "undemocratic". When he is the one upholding democracy, proper democracy, not a democracy where votes can be repeated over and over until the right result is achieved. And MPs are beaten into submission with threats.

Hurrache · 19-03-2019 05:09PM

There's a hash tag trending at the moment, #HannanIrishHistory and for a few moments I couldn't figure out what it was about, then it clicked that it's taking the piss out of Daniel Hannan and his somewhat interesting take on Irish history, with such gems that FF won every Irish election until Bertie was forced out by the EU around the time of Lisbon. He doubled down when challenged saying "I managed a double first in Modern History from Oxford" but he's being torn asunder.

This is his original story and twitter thread
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1107687206045536258

This is the hashtag
https://twitter.com/hashtag/hannanirishhistory?f=tweets&vertical=default&src=tren

Laois_Man · 19-03-2019 05:14PM

Leroy42 wrote: »

What benefit would the EU see in giving any extension, be it longer (21 months) or short?

There's absolutely no benefit to a 3 month extension. A 21 month extension would see a new PM in place for at least a year before the new Brexit deadline. Definitely! The EU clearly have no respect for May. Whether that be a new PM resulting from a Tory leadership contest or a general election, we can't be sure. I think most people other than the MP's whose seats would be in danger want a general election and hopefully the elimination of the DUP influence.
Unfortunately, turkey's don't vote for Christmas though, so I can't see it happening!

There needs to be a new WA without the red lines - which won't happen while May is PM and probably won't happen while any other Tory is PM either. So it's jammed.

The only real option to break the jam is a second referendum but it will bring chaos is it's a straight choice between 'Remain' and May's deal. There has to be a "Hard Brexit" or "May's Deal" choice - framed as a second count in such a way as it doesn't split the 'leave' vote.

RickBlaine · 19-03-2019 05:22PM

Asking the public to leave the EU in the first place was deeply unwise and dangerous.
Giving the public the option of a hard brexit is equally so.

A significant portion of them simply don't understand the complexities and implications of a hard Brexit. A second ref should be between remain and whatever WA / deal has been negotiated.

mrbrianj · 19-03-2019 05:22PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

British media and politicians calling Bercow's intervention "undemocratic". When he is the one upholding democracy, proper democracy, not a democracy where votes can be repeated over and over until the right result is achieved. And MPs are beaten into submission with threats.

Yes, not too many now slagging us over having 2 goes at Lisbon!

From afar, it seems like Bercow is simply saying "cop on lads". In any other situation a government getting defeated so badly would bring them down

Panrich · 19-03-2019 05:32PM

It looks like the EU might be turning the screw regarding the extension. Tough talk from Barnier that there needs to be a clear plan that makes extension worthwhile. I don't get the impression that such a plan exists or will be forthcoming from the UK.

Irishmale0399 · 19-03-2019 05:35PM

Panrich wrote: »

It looks like the EU might be turning the screw regarding the extension. Tough talk from Barnier that there needs to be a clear plan that makes extension worthwhile. I don't get the impression that such a plan exists or will be forthcoming from the UK.

They have 10 days....tick tock...

road_high · 19-03-2019 05:35PM

Panrich wrote: »

It looks like the EU might be turning the screw regarding the extension. Tough talk from Barnier that there needs to be a clear plan that makes extension worthwhile. I don't get the impression that such a plan exists or will be forthcoming from the UK.

The EU hold all the cards- May is the one going begging for an extension this week to them. If not the UK crashes out on devastating trade terms. I’m hearing less of the “no deal will be great” non sense that had being doing the rounds for the past 6 months in particular.

Anteayer · 19-03-2019 05:36PM

Panrich wrote: »

It looks like the EU might be turning the screw regarding the extension. Tough talk from Barnier that there needs to be a clear plan that makes extension worthwhile. I don't get the impression that such a plan exists or will be forthcoming from the UK.

Well from a European (including Irish) point of view, this last couple of years have been chaos. We need some sense of planning and logical strategy. Simply extending the process for a further two years without any plan doesn't achieve anything other than more room for more chaos.

This mess is not cost-free. It's causing huge pressure and uncertainty for businesses and individuals and it's also causing potential issues with political instability around some parts of the EU too.

A major reality check is needed. This crazy cannot just keep going on and I think we'd be doing nobody any favours by facilitating it too easily.

Seth Brundle · 19-03-2019 05:40PM

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

They have 10 days....tick tock...

Yes but apparently the EU always caves in at the last minute so the UK don't actually need to do anything.

Joe_ Public · 19-03-2019 05:42PM

RickBlaine wrote: »

Asking the public to leave the EU in the first place was deeply unwise and dangerous.
Giving the public the option of a hard brexit is equally so.

A significant portion of them simply don't understand the complexities and implications of a hard Brexit. A second ref should be between remain and whatever WA / deal has been negotiated.

That’s my current thinking on it too. It’s not in itself straightforward but nothing is. It means Mays deal getting through the house somehow.

Professor Moriarty · 19-03-2019 05:45PM

The Elysee Palace is saying that Britain will not get an extension unless there is a credible plan that has the backing of parliament. The patience of Les Bleus is running out.

Irishmale0399 · 19-03-2019 05:45PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Yes but apparently the EU always caves in at the last minute so the UK don't actually need to do anything.

Time will tell.....then again the UK has so much to offer the EU that the EU cannot cope without......:rolleyes:

ancapailldorcha · 19-03-2019 05:48PM

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

They have 10 days....tick tock...

Irishmale0399 wrote: »

Time will tell.....then again the UK has so much to offer the EU that the EU cannot cope without......:rolleyes:

Enough of the one-liners please.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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