Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Kermit.de.frog · 19-03-2019 01:31PM

It's not even a third of the population of Britain either....

Also the idea that the likes of Owen Paterson are men of the people in the likes of Sheffield, Barnsley and Sunderland sticking up for the common man is absolutely ludicrous.

Anteayer · 19-03-2019 01:47PM

I find this whole thing ridiculous and the BBC is behaving like a tabloid there.

The speaker held the executive to account by upholding the rules of the house. May is effectively trying to almost filibuster by bringing the same proposal again and again until she eventually wears the MPs down or backs them into a corner so can't avoid voting in her favour. That is an abysmal way to threat the House and I think it's propper order that she's landed herself in this message.

The Government has continuously treated MPs with utter contempt. Even the fact that May and her government (who I add don't even have a clean majority) haven't stepped aside given how badly they've lost votes is unprecedented.

She's brass necking it and refusing to let go of power despite the fact that she's clearly no mandate to negotiate anything, which is what has led us to this mess.

Everything seems to be about just shutting down anything that might derail Brexit, including normal democratic values if needs be.

Somehow a badly conducted advisory referendum has become more important than any constitutional law or Parliamentary procedure. How much more of British democracy has to be sacrificed at the altar before this thing is done !?

Infini · 19-03-2019 01:54PM

dublinman1990 wrote: »

It looks like that the UK will get an eventual extension on the deal along with a new date for Brexit.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1107722959475613698

It still comes down to a simple fact though: What is their plan? Why should the extend for more of the same? Why evade the choice they themselves imposed on others?

The EU needs to make it clear to the UK that there's only a limited number of options that will allow any agreement for an extention to pass otherwise its Leave or Abandon Brexit by next week.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 02:21PM

Seems May is still sticking to Plan A with a backup of along delay. Laughable at this point.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107988238118121472

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107988653983363072

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107988976026222593

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107989414175797248

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107990954533941249

Spanish Eyes · 19-03-2019 02:43PM

Getting the feeling that a long extension means Brexit is finished.

But what happens regarding the EU elections? Anyway I doubt there is any other way to get over this impasse.

Two things strike me. One, if EU elections happen in Britain will there be Brexit and Remain candidates, and will Farage be re -elected?

Two, the UK will continue for years to be a thorn in the side of the EU, but an extension is far better than no deal.

What a total shambles this all is. Still, most people, including some Leavers, and all Remainers, and ourselves might just breathe a sigh of relief now, for the moment.

Panrich · 19-03-2019 02:47PM

And now they are pushing back that they're looking for a long extension. It's chaos there now and this won't help their cause in getting any extension over the line.

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1107995573393739776?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1107995573393739776&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theguardian.com%2Fpolitics%2Flive%2F2019%2Fmar%2F19%2Fbrexit-latest-news-bercow-speaker-theresa-may-to-chair-cabinet-as-government-responds-to-bercow-ruling-against-repeat-vote-on-deal-politics-live

CelticRambler · 19-03-2019 02:52PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Seems May is still sticking to Plan A with a backup of along delay.

Seems like May is sticking with Plan A - don't talk to anybody who could help get her deal over the line. :rolleyes:

Jizique · 19-03-2019 02:53PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Getting the feeling that a long extension means Brexit is finished.

But what happens regarding the EU elections? Anyway I doubt there is any other way to get over this impasse.

Two things strike me. One, if EU elections happen in Britain will there be Brexit and Remain candidates, and will Farage be re -elected?

Two, the UK will continue for years to be a thorn in the side of the EU, but an extension is far better than no deal.

What a total shambles this all is. Still, most people, including some Leavers, and all Remainers, and ourselves might just breathe a sigh of relief now, for the moment.

They might as well hold the EU elections; given their avowed love of democracy and the fact that it is PR rather than FPTP, it would represent an interesting reflection of opinion.
I could see a biggish turnout, 60% perhaps, with UKIP getting 10-12%, the tories 25%, Labour something similar, and the LibDems and Greens (and SNP) the rest.

Seth Brundle · 19-03-2019 02:54PM

Erm what?
May weighing third Commons Brexit vote despite Speaker’s ruling

road_high · 19-03-2019 02:54PM

This is exactly what they’ve been banging on about for years- uk parliament and rules to take precedence over all else and it’s what they’re getting. Why be upset at that?

road_high · 19-03-2019 02:56PM

Two year extension will definitely mean the UK will have to partake in EU elections? That’ll all have to be decided very soon

Professor Moriarty · 19-03-2019 02:56PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Erm what?
May weighing third Commons Brexit vote despite Speaker’s ruling

Paywalled.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 02:58PM

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Erm what?
May weighing third Commons Brexit vote despite Speaker’s ruling

A majority in the commons can set aside Bercow's ruling, if she has a majority for her deal, then she probably has a majority to set aside that ruling, or at least if she thought it was close, she could try.

Strazdas · 19-03-2019 02:58PM

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Getting the feeling that a long extension means Brexit is finished.

But what happens regarding the EU elections? Anyway I doubt there is any other way to get over this impasse.

Two things strike me. One, if EU elections happen in Britain will there be Brexit and Remain candidates, and will Farage be re -elected?

Two, the UK will continue for years to be a thorn in the side of the EU, but an extension is far better than no deal.

What a total shambles this all is. Still, most people, including some Leavers, and all Remainers, and ourselves might just breathe a sigh of relief now, for the moment.

Don't forget the EU are still totally in control of the situation. They can attach strict demands to the granting of an extension. It is May who is going to them on Thursday begging them for help.

The deadline of Friday next week is a self imposed deadline by the British. All of the pressure is on them and not on the EU.

ancapailldorcha · 19-03-2019 02:59PM

This is the key part:

Nick Boles, a former Tory minister and advocate of a softer Brexit, also said the significance of Mr Bercow’s intervention was being overstated.

“Not sure what all the fuss is about,” he wrote on Twitter. “If the PM thinks she has a majority for a third meaningful vote, she will also have a majority for a motion to set aside the Speaker’s ruling . . . If she doesn’t, no point making the attempt.”

Apparently, Brecow's ruling can be cast aside via a motion if there's sufficient will in the House.

CelticRambler · 19-03-2019 03:02PM

Inquitus wrote: »

A majority is the commons can set aside Bercow's ruling, if she has a majority for her deal, then she probably has a majority to set aside that ruling, or at least if she thought it was close, she could try.

That's as may be, but don't forget that we woke up on Monday (yesterday

) to the rumour that she'd pull MV3 because it looked like she didn't have enough votes. You don't go from struggling to get a majority on the back of shady deals with NI minority parties to being so confident of success that you can overturn parliamentary precedent in the space of a few days.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 03:04PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's as may be, but don't forget that we woke up on Monday (yesterday ) to the rumour that she'd pull MV3 because it looked like she didn't have enough votes. You don't go from struggling to get a majority on the back of shady deals with NI minority parties to being so confident of success that you can overturn parliamentary precedent.

Aye I guess the point is it changes very little, if she can get a majority for the deal she can pass it, if not she can't. I guess it does hinder her in so far as she can't go for MV 3,4,5 like she was perhaps planning.

ToBeFrank123 · 19-03-2019 03:06PM

The third meaningful vote was going to fail anyways for the WA. Don't see what the big deal is. Bercow probably saved further embarrassment for May.

She'd be better off calling a GE at this stage and aim for a clear Conservative majority. She said she wouldn't lead the party into the next GE, but she should go into the GE as leader selling her deal. Corbyn will probably go into the GE with second ref as his big idea. Whoever wins the election has a mandate from the people to implement their policy and their MPS should row in behind the leader after the GE.

Strazdas · 19-03-2019 03:07PM

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

This is the key part:

Apparently, Brecow's ruling can be cast aside via a motion if there's sufficient will in the House.

Dominic Grieve says even if there is a majority for May's deal, that doesn't necessarily mean a majority will set aside Bercow's ruling......they are two completely different subjects.

Inquitus · 19-03-2019 03:10PM

Something amusing out of Cabinet!

https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1108002920379940865

CelticRambler · 19-03-2019 03:13PM

Inquitus wrote: »

Aye I guess the point is it changes very little, if she can get a majority for the deal she can pass it, if not she can't.

Well, it means that she can't simply use threats, bribes and a bit of word-play to bring the same deal back to the HoC - she'll need to make some real effort to change direction.

So far, though, it looks like she's determined to hold HMS Britannia on course for the iceberg.

ArmaniJeanss · 19-03-2019 03:14PM

Strazdas wrote: »

Dominic Grieve says even if there is a majority for May's deal, that doesn't necessarily mean a majority will set aside Bercow's ruling......they are two completely different subjects.

Yeah, you'd think a few of the grandee's who would vote for the deal (Ken Clarke type of MPs) might be uncomfortable about voting down a speakers ruling.

ToBeFrank123 · 19-03-2019 03:24PM

CelticRambler wrote: »

Well, it means that she can't simply use threats, bribes and a bit of word-play to bring the same deal back to the HoC - she'll need to make some real effort to change direction.

So far, though, it looks like she's determined to hold HMS Britannia on course for the iceberg.

Agreed. Its probably why this rule was brought in 400 years ago, to prevent undue pressure being brought to bear on MPs to change their mind, or else that MPs would vote one way the first time with the hope of reward if they voted a different way the next time. It protects against corruption and also prevents every single vote being held numerous times until the PM gets the right result.

A good move by Bercow.

54and56 · 19-03-2019 03:30PM

I wonder have Paddy Power paid out on the UK not leaving the EU by March 29th yet? Should raise some heckles when they do

Duane Dibbley · 19-03-2019 03:32PM

https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1108006205899923456

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/1107995150758887424

robinph · 19-03-2019 03:33PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

Whoever wins the election has a mandate from the people to implement their policy and their MPS should row in behind the leader after the GE.

That would be like claiming that 52% voting leave was a clear decision on the direction the country should then take, or May winning the last election despite losing it and Corbyn winning despite losing were clear indications of the will of the people at that point. When neither party has a clear idea of what their policy is, or even how to communicate that to the population and that some areas will forever be coloured red/ blue on the map despite whatever else happens it really wouldn't tell you anything useful at all.

A general election is a monumentally stupid way of trying to figure out what the will of the people is in some single topic for the country. That doesn't mean they won't call a general election obviously.

ToBeFrank123 · 19-03-2019 03:40PM

robinph wrote: »

That would be like claiming that 52% voting leave was a clear decision on the direction the country should then take, or May winning the last election despite losing it and Corbyn winning despite losing were clear indications of the will of the people at that point. When neither party has a clear idea of what their policy is, or even how to communicate that to the population and that some areas will forever be coloured red/ blue on the map despite whatever else happens it really wouldn't tell you anything useful at all.

A general election is a monumentally stupid way of trying to figure out what the will of the people is in some single topic for the country. That doesn't mean they won't call a general election obviously.

There aren't the numbers for May to support her deal in the current parliament and she's wasting her time trying to force the DUP onside. So it would be monumentally stupid to continue to try to force the same deal on the same MPs.

I don't think you get that the general UK public are sick and tired of Brexit and want a deal or at least some sort of finality to it.

May is never going to opt for a second referendum, ever. I thought the assurances she got from Europe were enough to see the WA deal over the line, but clearly they weren't. The EU have said those were the final negotiations.

So where does she go from here? Keep flogging a dead deal to the same MPs? Or go to the people in a GE? Seeing as she won't go to them with a second ref. Her options have narrowed if she wants to get her deal over the line and she seems to think its the only deal in town.

Infini · 19-03-2019 03:50PM

All this though is putting the cart before the horse. Simple fact is Brexit happens next week, by that time the UK either will crash out by virtue of political incompetence or they're forced to abandon Brexit in the face of economic catastrophe. The EU likely wont and honestly shouldnt give any extention at this point unless theres a clear plan and reason otherwise its best to end this farce one way or another. They need to decide NOW in the UK and act not waste more time.

CelticRambler · 19-03-2019 03:52PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

There aren't the numbers for May to support her deal in the current parliament and she's wasting her time trying to force the DUP onside. So it would be monumentally stupid to continue to try to force the same deal on the same MPs.

Theresa May's performance since taking office indicates that "monumentally stupid" is one of her favourite decision-making strategies.

Zubeneschamali · 19-03-2019 03:53PM

ToBeFrank123 wrote: »

I don't think you get that the general UK public are sick and tired of Brexit and want a deal or at least some sort of finality to it.

Bad news for the general UK public - they are going to hear about nothing but Brexit for many, many years no matter what happens.

If Brexit is cancelled, the Brexiteers will moan about it for 40 years at least.

If May's deal is ratified, it is just the first and easiest step in a process, it will be non-stop Brexit Trade Talks news for 5 years at least.

If No Deal crashout happens, the mutants surviving in the wasteland of the former UK will have a whole religion based on Brexit and waiting for the Chosen One to lead them back to the EU.

Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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